Germany Chocolate Confectionery Market Report 2024
£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)
Report Summary
Despite rising cocoa prices, volume sales stabilised in 2023 (+0.8%) after a drop in 2022, showing how consumers have become more price tolerant and value chocolate’s perceived mood-boosting properties in times of polycrisis. After all, 87% of Germans felt like most people in Germany were in a bad mood in June 2024.
With further increases in cocoa prices expected, which will likely impact consumer prices, manufacturers will need to demonstrate added value in their offerings to justify higher prices. This can be done by highlighting features such as a long tradition, a high cocoa content or sustainable ingredients.
The German government’s focus on plant-based diets provides an opportunity to market vegan chocolate more strongly to German chocolate buyers aged 16-34, 23% of whom would be prompted to try a new chocolate product if it was vegan. In 2023, Lidl announced that its vegan own-label Vemondo range would be priced equally to its animal-origin products. Other retailers and brands can follow to encourage greater consumption of vegan chocolate by reducing price as a barrier.
There is an opportunity to innovate around flavour, as consumer spending power improves while their financial situation eases. A unique flavour would prompt 47% of chocolate buyers to try a new chocolate product.
This report looks at the following areas:
- The impact of the economy on the chocolate confectionery category
- Trends in the frequency of chocolate consumption
- Formats and types of chocolate eaten, with older consumers consuming a smaller repertoire of chocolate formats
- Prompts to buy a new chocolate product, such as a unique flavour or reduced-sugar recipes
- Attributes that make chocolate seem premium, including the appeal of a brand with a long tradition, and sustainable ingredients
- Behaviours regarding chocolate, such as trying new flavours, and the appeal of smaller portions rather than a reduced sugar content
- Attitudes towards chocolate, including the potential for functional ingredients targeted at younger Germans
- Trends in launch activity and opportunities for further innovation
Emphasise the mood-boosting qualities of chocolate to help bring cheer. Innovate with flavour and texture to attract experimental consumers.
Khalid Peerbaccus, Food & Drink Senior Analyst
Table of Contents
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The five-year outlook for chocolate confectionery
- Market context
- Cocoa prices are on the rise, leading to increased prices in chocolate confectionery
- Graph 1: consumer price index for chocolate confectionery, Jan-Jul 2024
- Cost-of-living crisis enhances the appeal of chocolate as a mood booster
- Mintel predicts
- Market size & forecast for chocolate confectionery
- Retail value sales will grow, but volume sales will dip
- Chocolate confectionery will see a value growth of 20% over 2024-29
- Stagnation in volume predicted over 2024-29
- Opportunities
- Future-proof chocolate offerings by looking to cocoa alternatives
- Look to new opportunities in sugar reduction while enhancing the chocolate flavour
- Highlight functional ingredients tailored to the needs of Germans aged 16-34
- Target sensation-seeking consumers with novel flavours and textures
- The competitive landscape
- Ferrero continues to lead in chocolate confectionery
- Graph 2: company share of retail value and volume sales of chocolate confectionery, 2023
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MARKET DRIVERS
- The German economy
- 2024 remains challenging
- Graph 3: key economic data, in real terms, 2019-25
- The inflation rate is bouncing back to more conventional levels
- Inflation is still the key factor affecting consumers’ finances…
- …confidence and expenditure
- Graph 4: financial confidence index, 2022-24
- Inflation hit the chocolate category hard in 2024, especially with cocoa powder prices soaring
- Graph 5: consumer price index of chocolate confectionary, Jan-Jul 2024
- Sustainability
- Climate change opens the gates for chocolate alternatives
- Deforestation presses for a more-sustainable approach
- Health
- Mood-boosting credentials could help boost chocolate confectionery’s appeal
- Chocolate confectionery’s role as a mood booster will enhance its appeal in 2024
- A sizeable amount of Germans consider themselves to be overweight in 2024
- Obesity levels are high, but unhealthy food is deemed okay in moderation
- Proposed advertising ban on unhealthy foods may cast shadow on chocolate confectionery
- Minimally processed chocolate could gain from the distrust for ultra-processed food
- Ultra-processed concerns give minimally processed chocolate the chance to thrive in the long run
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WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Trends in frequency of chocolate consumption
- Germans turn to chocolate to help boost mood
- Graph 6: frequency of chocolate consumption in the last three months, 2021-2024
- Germans aged 16-44 are most likely to consume chocolate a few times a week or more
- Graph 7: frequency of chocolate consumption, by age, 2024
- Highlight high cocoa content to target Germans seeking premium offerings
- Formats and types of chocolate eaten
- Chocolate blocks are by far the most consumed chocolate format
- Graph 8: types of chocolate formats consumed in the last three months, 2021-24
- Germans aged 65+ more likely to eat chocolate blocks than other formats
- Graph 9: consumption of types of chocolate in the last three months, by age, 2024
- Germans aged 65+ stick to the same chocolate formats
- Graph 10: types of chocolate formats eaten, by age group, 2024
- Target variety-seeking Germans with single-serve formats that have unique flavours and textures
- Dark chocolate consumed more in 2024
- Graph 11: chocolate consumption, by type, 2024 vs 2023
- Prompts to buy a new chocolate product
- Unique flavour appeals to chocolate buyers
- Unique flavour and high cocoa content would prompt purchase of new chocolate products
- Graph 12: prompts to buy a new chocolate product, 2024
- Reach more chocolate buyers with unique flavours and high cocoa content
- Follow Macalat’s footsteps in offering low-sugar chocolate
- Target German chocolate buyers aged 16-34 with vegan chocolate
- Graph 13: selected factor that would prompt purchase of a new chocolate product, by age group, 2024
- Widen the appeal of vegan chocolate with price-matching strategies
- Attributes that make a chocolate seem premium
- A brand with a long tradition is likely to be seen as premium by chocolate eaters
- Long traditions and high cocoa content are key indicators for premium chocolate
- Graph 14: “Premium chocolate, to me, is chocolate that…”, 2024
- Foster an image of authenticity by highlighting tradition
- Planet A Foods offers a sustainable cocoa-free chocolate
- Behaviours towards chocolate
- Chocolate bought mostly on impulse
- Graph 15: behaviours related to chocolate consumption, 2024
- Target impulse-buying Germans with attention-grabbing flavours
- German chocolate eaters/buyers aged 16-34 prefer naturally sweetened chocolate
- Sweeten chocolate naturally
- Blending two or more flavours in one chocolate bar appeals to Germans aged 16-44
- Emphasise natural ingredients to imbue a less-processed image
- Smaller portions favoured over reduced sugar content
- Chocolate eaters/buyers aged 55+ feel no shame in gifting discounter chocolate
- Graph 16: agreement that gifting discounter chocolate would be embarrassing, by age group, 2024
- Attitudes towards chocolate
- Chocolate seen as an affordable way to lift mood
- Graph 17: attitudes towards chocolate, 2024
- Highlight the mood-boosting properties of chocolate
- Emphasise long tradition to retain loyal Germans
- Target German 16-34s with functional ingredients tailored to their needs
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LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- Discounters have the opportunity to appeal to budget-conscious Germans
- Graph 18: chocolate confectionery launches, by leading companies, 2021-24
- Appeal to Germans seeking affordable seasonal chocolate specialties through value
- Milka tests paper packaging on its launches
- Sugar content dips slightly in 2024
- Graph 19: average sugar content per 100g in chocolate confectionary launches, 2018-24
- Vegan and vegetarian chocolate growth stagnates in 2024
- Target curious 16-34 year olds with vegan/plant-based chocolate in single-serve formats
- Chocolate brands renovate rather than innovate
- Graph 20: chocolate confectionery launches, by type, 2020-24
- Unflavoured/plain chocolate launches dominate the landscape but unique flavours have potential
- Graph 21: chocolate confectionery launches, by top ten flavours, 2020-24
- Unique textures appeal to German chocolate eaters
- Consumers are seeking out novel sensory experiences
- Focus on unique textures to appeal to experimental younger Germans
- Uncommon flavours have room to grow in the chocolate confectionery category
- Novel flavours can inspire experimental chocolate confectionery eaters
- Free from claims could gain more ground in chocolate confectionery in 2024
- Graph 22: launches, by top five natural claims, 2020-24
- Palm oil-free claims have seen a gradual growth in chocolate confectionery
- Graph 23: % of chocolate confectionery launches with palm oil-free claim, 2020-24
- Chocolate confectionery brands highlight palm oil-free recipes
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Ferrero shows chocolate can bring togetherness to families
- Nestlé says less is more where packaging is concerned
- Schogetten uses an oat drink base for its vegan chocolate
- Milka highlights its appeal among Germans young and old
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MARKET SHARE
- Own label stays level despite rising prices
- Ferrero maintains its lead while own label and Mondelēz show strong growth
- Mondelēz comes out strong in volume sales
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MARKET SIZE, SEgmentation AND FORECAST
- Value growth soars as volume stagnates
- Graph 24: value market size for chocolate confectionery, 2018-23
- Graph 25: volume market size for chocolate confectionery, 2019-23
- Chocolate confectionery sees growth in volume and value in 2023
- Chocolate shows value sales growth in every category in 2023
- Tablets show an uptick in volume sales in 2023
- Chocolate confectionery will see a value growth of 20% over 2024-29
- Volume expected to stagnate as prices soar
- Longer-term value is expected to grow while volume will stagnate
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APPENDIX
- Appendix – products covered, abbreviations, consumer research methodology and language usage
- Products covered in this Report
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- TURF analysis methodology
- TURF analysis
- A note on language
- Appendix – market size and central forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market size – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – volume
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