The vast majority of consumers in Germany consume coffee regularly, with participation in 2024 having increased since December 2022. Over the next five years, further significant long-term growth in the coffee market in Germany is expected.
Coffee Market Germany – Current Landscape
Coffee consumption in Germany is up, especially the cohort of 16-24-year-olds drive this growth, influenced by social media trends and a desire to recreate the coffee shop experience. Cold coffee innovation, including in emerging formats like liquid concentrates, and flavoured coffee can keep them engaged.
Coffee made from home-ground beans is on the rise, boosting whole bean sales in the coffee market in Germany, as consumers seek an enhanced sensory experience. There is however scope to improve freshness, for example, via freshly roasted bean subscriptions. Enabling consumers to elevate their coffee-making game with online tutorials or coffee-shop style product ranges will also resonate.
Upcoming EU ESG regulations are expected to influence the coffee market in Germany, leading to higher sustainability standards, but also higher prices, impacting sales. Brands can prove enhanced value by linking sustainability to better tasting coffee and using traceability to showcase farmers’ stories.
Coffee Market in Germany – Market Statistics
- Coffee Market Size Germany: The coffee market in Germany has experienced +0.6% of growth in 2024.
- Consumption Behaviour in the Coffee Market Germany: 47% of consumers turn to coffee for relaxation and 42% for energy, with coffee serving a holistic purpose.
- Coffee Market Share in Germany: In 2023, private labels owned the majority of the share in the coffee market in Germany.
Coffee Report Germany – What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analysed in this Report
Market drivers for coffee and RTD coffee, including how upcoming EU ESG regulations, will both benefit and challenge the industry.
Changes in coffee consumption at home, reasons for drinking coffee, and other consumer behaviours and attitudes related to coffee and RTD coffee.
Recent launch activity and innovations in the coffee market in Germany, including market size, forecast, and coffee market share in Germany.
Report Scope
The market size data in this report covers packaged fresh and instant coffee and ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee.
Coffee segments included:
- Fresh: ground/roasted standard and premium products and coffee pods.
- Instant: Plain (granules, pulverised and powders), speciality (products that have added ingredients such as milk powder, sugar, sweeteners, e.g. lattes, cappuccinos, 2-in-1s and 3-in-1s).
RTD coffee segments included:
- Chilled.
- Shelf-stable.
The market size is based on sales through all retail channels (off trade) including direct to consumer.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Eliana Riera-McInnes, Foodservice Research Analyst at Mintel. Eliana joined Mintel in 2022, focusing on consumer and market trends in the German foodservice sector. She has worked in different areas of the foodservice industry, including business strategy, market research, operations and marketing. She holds a BA (Universidad Metropolitana), a BSc (Université du Vin) and a MA (Humboldt University of Berlin).
Brands in the coffee market in Germany must prove how enhanced sustainability, driven by the EU legislation, adds value to their products as coffee prices rise. Transparency and linking better growing conditions to superior taste can encourage consumers.
Eliana Riera-McInnes
Research Analyst – Foodservice
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The five year outlook for coffee and RTD coffee
- Market context
- Coffee remains a staple, but an unequal recovery of financial confidence will fuel polarised consumption
- Upcoming price increases are expected amid disruptions in green coffee supply
- Graph 1: World Bank commodity monthly prices in nominal US dollars, 2022-24
- Ownership of fully automatic coffee machines is on the rise as Germans seek a better coffee experience at home
- Graph 2: share of households with coffee machines, 2017-22
- Mintel predicts
- The coffee market will experience moderate growth as the RTD coffee market sees a dynamic surge
- Market size & forecast – coffee
- Coffee is forecasted to grow to €6.37 billion by 2029
- Market size & forecast – RTD coffee
- RTD coffee is forecasted to steadily grow to €775m by 2029
- Opportunities
- Improve freshness to elevate coffee enjoyment
- Tap into emerging cold coffee formats to keep younger Germans engaged
- Graph 3: coffee consumers and buyers who have made cold coffee at home in the past month, 2024
- Balance the boost…
- …with the calm
- Boost value perceptions of sustainability amid expected price rises
- The competitive landscape
- Own label strengthens its lead position in the coffee market, gaining value and volume share in 2023
- Graph 4: company retail value and volume market shares of coffee, 2023
- While own label dominates RTD coffee, challenger brands in the ‘others’ category gained value and volume share in 2023
- Graph 5: company retail value and volume market shares of RTD coffee, 2023
-
MARKET DRIVERS
- The German economy
- 2024 remains challenging
- Graph 6: key economic data, in real terms, 2019-25
- The inflation rate is bouncing back to more conventional levels
- Inflation is still the key factor affecting consumers’ finances…
- …confidence and expenditure
- Graph 7: financial confidence index, 2022-24
- Market drivers for coffee and RTD coffee
- Coffee remains a staple even in financially challenging times
- An unequal recovery of financial confidence will fuel polarisation among German coffee lovers
- Coffee drinkers will look for value amid rising prices…
- Graph 8: coffee and RTD coffee, most appealing ways to save money on coffee at home, 2022
- …but the lipstick effect will also fuel interest in premium coffee and RTD options
- After a spike in 2022, consumer coffee prices saw a slight decline in 2023-24
- Graph 9: consumer price index for coffee and similar, 2022-24
- …but more price increases are expected amid disruptions in green coffee supply
- Graph 10: World Bank commodity monthly prices in nominal US dollars, 2022-24
- Coffee is both impacted by and significantly contributes to climate change…
- Graph 11: greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain, 2018
- …making sustainability a must for coffee brands
- ESG legislation will both benefit and challenge the coffee industry
- Coffee brands will need to prove added value to get consumers on board with higher prices for more sustainable coffee
- Graph 12: most important factors when buying food and drink products, 2024
- The BMEL Strategy and UPF discussion put the spotlight on RTD coffee’s contents
- Ownership of fully automatic coffee machines is on the rise as Germans seek a better coffee experience at home
- Rise of home brewing is fuelling an appreciation for a high-quality coffee experience
- Hybrid working patterns will boost RTD coffee and energy/focus messaging
-
WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Coffee consumption at home
- Germans’ love for coffee continues to grow
- Home-ground coffee bean use surges
- Graph 13: types of coffee drunk at home in the last month, 2022-24
- Better-off 35-44s drive usage of home-ground coffee beans
- Graph 14: types of coffee drunk at home in the last month, by age, 2022-24
- Ground coffee and coffee made from beans ground at home enjoy most frequent usage
- Graph 15: frequency of coffee consumption at home in the last month, 2024
- Ground coffee needs to innovate to engage younger Germans
- The enjoyment of coffee’s inherent taste fuels the popularity of whole coffee beans
- Target frequent whole bean users with freshly roasted bean subscriptions
- Encourage consumers to upskill to enjoy better-tasting coffee
- Standard caffeinated coffee continues to reign supreme
- Graph 16: caffeination of coffee drunk at home in the past month, 2022-24
- Reasons for drinking coffee
- Coffee serves a holistic purpose in German consumers’ lives
- Graph 17: reasons for drinking coffee, 2024
- Enhance the link between coffee and wellbeing
- Promote the coffee brewing ritual as a mindfulness practice
- Tap into Germans’ love for the outdoors
- Drive interest among younger Germans not-in-it-for-the-taste…
- …with flavoured coffee innovation
- Expand flavoured options to traditional pure-coffee categories
- Coffee is a treat
- Lift Germans’ spirits with dessert-flavoured coffee
- Help hybrid workers cope better with changing routines…
- Graph 18: selected reasons for drinking coffee, by employment location, 2024
- …with products that deliver an extra mind-and-body boost
- Behaviours towards coffee and RTD coffee
- Coffee enriches life at home, but higher prices risk alienating some
- Graph 19: behaviours towards coffee and RTD coffee, 2024
- Help Germans replicate the coffee shop experience at home
- Empower consumers to elevate their barista game
- Connect with younger Germans by ramping up cold coffee innovation
- Graph 20: coffee consumers and buyers who have made cold coffee at home in the past month, 2024
- Innovate in RTD coffee with textures
- Tap into liquid concentrates to facilitate the cold coffee-making process
- Target busy, young workers with liquid coffee concentrates…
- …via distribution points near offices and after-work occasions
- Cater to sports enthusiasts with coffee mixes that offer functional benefits
- Allude to coffee’s gut health benefits via combinations with well-known gut health boosters
- Leverage improved traceability, facilitated by ESG regulations, to increase value perceptions
- Get consumers on board with price increases by improving transparency
- Link sustainability to improved growing conditions and taste
- Stand out with processing methods that deliver a smoother cup
- Cater to younger taste buds influenced by the rise of specialty coffee
- Graph 21: preference for coffees with acidic flavour notes over ones without, by age group, 2024
- Attitudes towards coffee and RTD coffee
- Brands are challenged by both own-label and emerging smaller brands
- Graph 22: attitudes towards coffee and RTD coffee, 2024
- Uplift rather than compete with smaller independent coffee businesses
- Social media is increasingly inspiring coffee trends
- Partner with lifestyle influencers to increase brand visibility among younger audiences
- Provide transparency on caffeine content
-
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- Coffee and RTD coffee launch activity and innovation
- NPD of whole beans beginning to slow after sharp rise between 2021-23
- Graph 23: coffee launches, by format type, 2021-24
- New packaging launches of coffee pads offer improved recyclability
- Launches of coffee pods focus on home composting
- New whole-bean launches bank on reusable/returnable packaging
- Environmentally friendly product and sustainable claims are regaining share of NPD in the lead up to the EUDR
- Graph 24: coffee and RTD coffee launches, by claim, 2021-24
- Coffee brands are getting specific about sustainability beyond traditional certifications
- ESG regulations prompt coffee brands to support farmers in the sustainability transition
- Expect an uptick in human ethical claims
- Graph 25: coffee and RTD coffee launches with ethical – human claims, 2021-24
- Coffee brands demonstrate concrete impact on local communities and showcase farmers’ work
- The impact of the cost of living crisis is evident in the rise of economy claims
- As premium claims decline, MariaSole stands out by anchoring to a well-known premium product
- Brands continue to dominate launch activity to compete against the rising popularity of own label in inflationary times
- Graph 26: coffee and RTD coffee launches, by ultimate company, 2021-24
- Graph 27: coffee and RTD coffee launches, by branded vs own label, 2021-24
- Tchibo puts the focus back on its core coffee focus
- JDE goes for a quality and sustainability push
- Own-label brands promote value for money with larger formats
- Although regular coffee dominates launches, RTD recovers share after a slight dip in 2023
- Graph 28: coffee and RTD coffee launches, by sub-category, 2021-24
- Non-coffee brands bank on the popularity of the RTD coffee space
- Rauch highlights the versatility of its RTD coffee range
- Line-blurring, refreshing RTD coffee remains niche despite potential
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Lavazza warns of the threat of a world without coffee
- Edeka promotes its Coffee B pods
- Starbucks advertises its coffee capsules as more than just coffee
- Tchibo’s coffee subscription for never running out of coffee again
- Dallmayr taps into the rise of the home barista
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MARKET SHARE
- Boosted by Germans’ cost-conscious behaviours, own label continues to lead both the coffee market…
- …and RTD coffee market
- Retail market share of coffee (excluding RTDs), by value and volume
- Own label strengthens its lead position in the coffee market, gaining value…
- …and volume share
- Retail market share of RTD coffee, by value and volume
- Own label remains king in RTD coffee, but as competition intensifies, challenger brands in the ‘others’ category are regaining value share…
- …and volume share
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MARKET SIZE, SEgmentation AND FORECAST
- Market segmentation for coffee (excluding RTDs)
- Retail value sales of coffee continue to grow whilst volume sales decline
- Whole bean continues its winning streak
- Whole bean leads value sales, while instant wins on value growth as Robusta shortages boost prices
- Whole bean bucks overall volume sales decline trend as Germans seek an enhanced taste experience
- Market forecast for coffee (excluding RTDs)
- Continued higher prices to drive value sales growth despite dampened volume sales
- Value sales of coffee forecasted to continue growing as prices rise
- Coffee volume sales expected to slightly decline
- Market segmentation for RTD Coffee
- The German RTD coffee market has witnessed dynamic growth
- Shelf-stable sees robust value growth, supported by higher demand but also stronger price hikes
- Shelf-stable volume sales continue to rise as consumers trade down
- Market forecast for RTD coffee
- The RTD coffee market is set for continued volume and value growth
- Steady growth of RTD coffee value sales is anticipated
- RTD coffee volumes to return to growth
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APPENDIX
- Appendix – products covered, abbreviations, consumer research methodology and language usage
- Products covered in this Report
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- A note on language
- Appendix – market size and central forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size coffee – value
- Market size coffee – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals for coffee – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals for coffee – volume
- Market size RTD coffee – value
- Market size RTD coffee – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals for RTD coffee – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals for RTD coffee – volume
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