Despite price rises resulting in a downturn in volume sales of processed fish in 2022 and ’23, the category displays a level of resilience owing to the ability to ‘trade down’ within the category. Consumption appears to have shifted towards more-affordable, durable formats (ie tuna, herring) amid the high cost of living.
It is important to note, however, that economic factors will continue to play a role in consumer decision-making. This is particularly pertinent as supply-side changes catalysed by 2025 fishing quotas threaten to result in short-term price rises.
Reasons for optimism for fish & shellfish brands stem from the strong belief that fish/shellfish contain nutrients essential for good health (60% of Germans). Leveraging the inherent health benefits of fish consumption can help propel the category towards sustainable growth.
Sustainability claims are an untapped opportunity in the fish & shellfish category, potentially pointing to the need for change (particularly in the field of water health). Moreover, youth-driven demand is another feather in the cap for a category looking to cement itself in the psyche of Germans for years to come.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Overview of current market performance of processed fish/shellfish, and the outlook for the next five years
- Usage of fish & shellfish, and category support from younger Germans
- Perceptions of fish & shellfish, including sustainability and the future of plant-based ‘fish’
- Attitudes and behaviours relating to fish & shellfish, including the tinned fish frenzy
- Key new product development trends in the category
Extol seafood's inherent health benefits whilst improving its sustainability credentials to promote long-term, resilient demand amid price rises.
Adam Millward, Research – Mintel Reports
Market Definitions
This Report discusses seafood for in-home consumption sold through retail.
For the purpose of this Report, seafood is defined to include fish (fin fish) and shellfish (including crustaceans), whether chilled, frozen or ambient. This report covers packaged plain, as well as processed and ready-to-cook products.
The word ‘ambient’ is used to refer to the segment traditionally dominated by canned fish, which now also includes ambient fish in tubs, pouches and jars. The segment includes a small portion of sales of fish-based ready-to-eat/heat meal products.
Excluded from this report are seafood-based ready meals and sales of seafood through the catering sector, but reference to them may be made where relevant in light oft their role as closely adjacent and competing products. Sales of sushi are also excluded.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Opportunities
- Market size & forecast
- Outlook
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OPPORTUNITIES
- Shake up formats amid price sensitivity
- Chilled fish players must trade down to remain competitive with durable options
- Place fish as a cooking component, not just the star of the show
- Premium shelf-stable still has more potential for German brands
- Concept design: ‘Bavarian Delight’ combines local sourcing with gourmet flavours
- Highlight the unique health properties of fish & shellfish
- Leverage the full health potential of fish…
- …by focusing on the virtues of healthier fats
- Three health spins for brands to pursue
- Transparency (literally) is needed to dispel concerns around water quality
- Take Germans on a sustainable fishing journey
- Visual, compelling storytelling can help consumers make sense of the underwater world
- Make sealife traceability a human-led journey
- Prepare for restrictive fishing quotas by embracing whole cuts and the ‘fin-to-tail’ credo
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THE CONSUMER
- Consumption of fish & shellfish
- A third of Germans eat fish, in line with governmental guidelines
- Shelf-stable fish offer more potential as cost-effective varieties
- Slight decline in fresh fish consumption
- Graph 1: consumption of fish, by storage types, 2021 vs 2024
- Slowly but surely, fish & shellfish are becoming youth-driven categories
- Graph 2: consumption of any fish, 16-34s vs 55+, 2021 vs 2024
- Graph 3: consumption of any shellfish, 16-34s vs 55+, 2021 vs 2024
- In particular, shelf-stable seafood is finding a home amongst younger Germans
- Graph 4: consumption of non-frozen or chilled fish, 2021 vs 2024
- Fish more commonly eaten on a weekly basis vs shellfish
- Graph 5: consumption frequency of shellfish, by storage type, 2024
- Graph 6: consumption frequency of fish, by storage type, 2024
- Types of fish eaten
- Salmon leads the way, but tuna and herring are increasing
- Graph 7: types of fish eaten, 2021 vs 2024
- Economy likely underlies herring and tuna’s increased usage
- Consumption of tuna and herring has grown
- Slight movement in smaller shellfish categories
- Graph 8: consumption of shellfish, 2021 vs 2024
- Fish users prefer plainer options, while shellfish eaters are more open to marination and seasoning
- Graph 9: types of fish/shellfish typically bought, 2024
- Perceptions of fish & shellfish
- Users see farmed fish/shellfish as sustainable, but wild-caught as healthier
- Wild-caught fish is deemed healthier, but pricier, than farmed
- Farmed fish boasts a better sustainability reputation than wild, but both fall short on ethics
- Seafaux has numerous negative perceptions to shed before it can rival seafood
- Target plant-based alternative consumers with health- and ethics-based positioning
- Graph 10: associations of plant-based fish/shellfish, users vs non-users, 2024
- Attitudes & behaviours
- Fish brands are swamped with waste water concerns…
- …creating a need for greater quality messaging
- Tinned fish frenzy is an opportunity for brands…
- …to modernise their image
- Ortiz and Fishwife: high-end tins done two ways
- Extol the health image of fish relative to meat…
- Graph 11: attitudes towards fish/shellfish, 2024
- …by hammering home its inherent nutritional benefits
- Graph 12: meat and fish lauches, by average protein g per 100g, 2014-24
- Information overwhelm is a stumbling block…
- …in educating on sustainable sealife
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INNOVATION
- Product innovation slumps, dwarfed by repackaged fish
- Graph 13: fish & shellfish launches, 2014-24
- Chilled fish launches in long-term decline, and now exceeded by frozen launches
- Graph 14: fish & shellfish launches, by storage type, 2014-24
- Convenience grows as a proposition in fish launches
- Graph 15: fish & shellfish launches, by ease of use claims, 2021-24
- Meal-ready innovations can shorten the distance between store and plate
- Snackable formats may provide a quick nutritional hit as Germans’ fish eating declines
- Mediterranean players supercharge the premium perception of shelf-stable in the German market
- Ethical & environmental claims dwarf all other claim categories
- Graph 16: fish & shellfish launches, by top five ethical/environmental claims, 2021-24
- Graph 17: fish & shellfish launches, by claim category, 2021-24
- Slowly but surely, ethical – animal claims are rising in fish & shellfish
- John West’s twistable plastic-free packaging: bringing the sustainability journey full-circle
- Protein claims have climbed
- Graph 18: fish launches, by select health claims, 2023-24
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THE MARKET
- Market drivers
- Financial context may steer consumers towards different formats
- Baltic sea fishing quota reductions will further challenge German fisheries in 2025
- Rising global temperatures present further peril…
- …as well as opportunities, for Europe’s fisheries
- For consumers, meat reduction takes precedent over fish reduction
- Graph 19: changes in cooking/eating habits over the last 12 months, June 2024
- The BMEL’s health strategy may stall amidst changing government, potentially harming plant-based growth
- Market size
- Volume sales stabilised in 2024, just below pre-COVID-19 levels, after continuous decline
- Graph 20: retail value and volume sales of processed fish, 2019-24
- Price growth and volume sales decline are closely connected
- Graph 21: processed fish annual growth in retail volume sales and retail prices, 2022-23
- Market segmentation
- Processed chilled fish segment gains value and volume share
- Graph 22: retail value sales for processed fish, by segment, 2021-24
- Graph 23: retail volume sales of processed fish, by segment, 2021-24
- Market forecast
- Modest retail value sales growth driven by supply-side price increases
- Retail volume sales will recede slightly in response to expected price rises
- Modest value growth driven by price increases
- Market share
- Private label forged ahead in value shares…
- …while volume shares remained largely level
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APPENDIX
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Abbreviations
- Methodology – consumer research
- Consumer research methodology
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- A note on language
- Methodology – market size and forecast
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market size – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – volume
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