Rising prices and an ageing population are challenging German ice cream brands, however ice cream proves to be a valuable mood booster in times of uncertainty as more frequent consumption increases among Germans.
The Ice Cream Market in Germany – Current Landscape
The global cost of sugar surged to its highest level since 2011, while rising production prices for milk also contributed to making ice cream more expensive. Because higher prices are being passed on to the consumer, Germans are cutting back on ice cream to save money.
With summer temperatures expected to keep increasing due to climate change, water-based ice creams such as sorbets could gain popularity as consumers seek ways to stay refreshed. An ageing population, however, threatens ice cream sales as its consumption declines with age. Younger consumers, as they age, will drive the demand for fortified and functional ice creams with protein, vitamins and minerals, such as calcium, that support bone health.
Unique flavours provide ice cream market opportunities, as buyers would be prompted to try an ice cream they hadn’t had before if it had a unique flavour. Flavour combinations can create further excitement and German ice cream brands can utilise social media to create buzz and inspire younger Germans.
Ice Cream in Germany – Market Statistics
- Consumer Behaviour: Consumption in Germany has declined from 89% in 2022 to 86% in 2024. However, consumers are eating ice cream more frequently, with daily consumption in particular increasing. This highlights ice cream’s role as a mood booster in times of uncertainty.
- Ice Cream Market Growth: Retail value of ice cream in Germany has increased by 11% in 2023.
Ice Cream Market Research – What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analysed in this Report
- Ice cream market drivers, including the impact of inflation and the ageing population in Germany.
- Types and formats of ice cream consumed and consumption frequency, with dairy ice cream being the most popular.
- Consumer interest in different ice cream concepts, including premium and add-on ingredients.
- Purchase factors for ice cream in Germany, with unique flavour being a top consideration.
- Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to ice cream, including opportunities for nostalgia to influence purchases.
- Recent launch activity and innovations driving ice cream market growth.
Report Scope
This report examines the ice cream market in Germany, excluding sales through foodservice channels.
Mintel’s ice cream market research is segmented into:
- Family packs: Tubs, buckets, bricks, family packs of ice cream and sorbets
- Individually wrapped: Ice creams, lollies, frozen novelties, ice cream bars
- Multipacks: Wrapped items that are not sold separately
The market size excludes ice cream sold unwrapped such as ice cream in cones and scoops at ice cream parlours. Desserts such as Viennetta, Baked Alaska, cakes, frozen yogurt and tofu are also excluded from this report, but reference to them may be made where relevant.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Khalid Peerbaccus, Senior Analyst at Mintel. Khalid joined the German food and drink reports team at Mintel in April 2023. With more than ten years of experience in the FMCG industry and a special focus on innovation research, Khalid has a keen enthusiasm for the German market and is particularly interested in consumer behaviour and motivations.
German ice cream brands can focus on flavour innovation to support ice cream market growth and drive impulse purchases of new ice cream products. Functional ingredients and better-for-you offerings help target younger Germans as they age.
Khalid Peerbaccus
Senior Analyst – Food & Drink
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The five-year outlook for ice cream
- Market context
- Ice cream helps provide relief from hot weather
- An ageing population will drive up demand for BFY options
- Mintel predicts
- Rising prices will drive up value growth, but volumes are predicted to stagnate
- Market size and forecast for ice cream
- Rising prices to prompt further value growth
- Volume levels expected to stagnate
- Opportunities
- Enhance the image of high-protein ice creams to appeal to older Germans
- Provide smaller portions instead of reducing sugar content
- Add excitement to ice cream through cross-collaborations between other food and drink brands
- AI technology could give non-dairy ice cream a comparable flavour
- Explore new and different textures to entice adventurous ice cream eaters
- Attract Germans aged 16-44 with ice cream that supports gut health
- The competitive landscape
- Unilever is the market leader, but own label is strongest in volume sales
- Graph 1: company retail market share of ice cream, by value and volume, 2023
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MARKET DRIVERS
- The German economy
- 2024 remains challenging
- Graph 2: key economic data, in real terms, 2019-25
- The inflation rate is bouncing back to more conventional levels
- Inflation is still the key factor affecting consumers’ finances…
- …confidence and expenditure
- Graph 3: financial confidence index, 2022-24
- Rising production costs will challenge ice cream brands to demonstrate added value to justify higher price tags
- Climate
- Sweltering summers could boost water-based ice cream sales
- Health and nutrition
- Increasing obesity levels drive the need for greater portion control
- Food and Nutrition Strategy gives BFY ice cream the opportunity to shine
- Demographic factors
- Ageing population provides an opportunity for BFY ice creams to shine
- Graph 4: current and projected share of age groups that make up the population, 2024-50
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WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Usage of ice cream
- Ice cream eaten by the majority of Germans; daily usage has increased
- Graph 5: frequency of eating ice cream, 2019 vs 2022 vs 2024
- Dairy ice cream by far the most popular type in 2024
- Graph 6: types of ice cream eaten in the last three months, 2022 vs 2024
- Target Germans aged 55+ with premium ingredients and less sweet flavours
- Ice cream tubs are the most used format across age groups
- Graph 7: formats of ice cream eaten, 2022 vs 2024
- Interest in packaged ice cream concepts
- Premium ingredients pique consumer interest in Germany
- Graph 8: “I would be interested in trying packaged ice cream…”, 2024
- Germans aged 55+ are interested in ice cream made with premium ingredients
- Provide add-on ingredients to tailor the ice cream-eating experience
- Appeal to younger Germans with meal-inspired limited editions
- Utilise collaborations with other food and drink brands…
- …to appeal to Germans aged 16-54
- Cross-collaborations between brands can provide excitement for ice cream eaters
- Appeal to older Germans with less sweet ice cream flavours
- Rely on fruit to add less but natural sweetness
- Appeal to Germans aged 16-44 with gut-friendly ice cream
- Prompts to try a new ice cream
- Unique flavour and low price are most enticing to German ice cream eaters
- Graph 9: prompts to buy a new ice cream, 2024
- Capture the interest of experimental ice cream eaters with unique flavours
- Explore enticing flavours by thinking outside the box
- Novel flavours can inspire younger experimental consumers
- Boost the appeal of high protein ice cream to target older Germans
- Behaviours towards ice cream
- Nostalgia adds an enjoyment factor to the ice cream category
- Graph 10: behaviours related to ice cream, 2024
- Nostalgia evoking ice cream appeals across the board
- Pair streaming occasions with ice cream indulgence
- Target German ice cream eaters with smaller portions rather than reducing sugar
- Source ingredients ethically to help justify a higher price tag
- A strong social media presence helps 16-34s feel more connected to ice cream brands
- Engage young ice cream consumers with interactive content on social media
- Graph 11: “I feel more connected to ice cream brands that have a strong social media presence than those that don’t”, by age group, 2024
- Use social media to create buzz for your brand with younger Germans
- Attitudes towards ice cream
- Ice cream is seen as an affordable mood booster
- Graph 12: attitudes towards ice cream, 2024
- Highlight own label ice cream’s affordable mood-boosting qualities…
- …to entice cash-strapped Germans
- Embrace technology to mimic the taste of dairy ice cream
- Reassure Germans that low calorie/light ice cream retains its taste
- Graph 13: agreement that low calorie/light ice cream tastes just as good as regular ice cream, by age group, 2024
- Smaller brands appeal to experimental Germans aged 16-34
- Appeal to Germans aged 16-34 with ice cream made from upcycled ingredients
- Graph 14: agreement that ice cream that uses upcycled ingredients would be appealing, by age group, 2024
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LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- Own label has the opportunity to appeal to cash-strapped Germans, yet Unilever leads innovation
- Graph 15: launches of ice cream, by top 10 ultimate companies, 2022-24
- Own label can compete with branded by providing unique experiences
- Scope for flavour innovation in 2024
- Graph 16: launches of ice cream, by flavours (including blends), 2022-24
- Surprise sensation-seekers with unexpected flavour combinations
- Chunky is proving popular as a texture in ice cream launches in 2024
- Graph 17: ice cream launches, by selected textures, 2020-24
- Explore uncommon textures to appeal to experimental shoppers
- Plant-based ice cream launches drop slowly
- Graph 18: ice cream launches, by category, 2020-24
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Nuii Salted Caramel & Australian Macadamia offers a unique flavour combination
- Yogurette Eis positioned as the perfect cooling snack for the Summer
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MARKET SHARE
- Own label dominates retail volume and value shares, but Froneri gains shares
- Own label gain value shares in 2023 but dips in volume shares
- Graph 19: value market share for ice cream, by company, 2022-23
- Graph 20: volume market share for ice cream, by company, 2022-23
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MARKET SIZE, SEgmentation AND FORECAST
- Value growth remained high as volume dropped slightly
- Graph 21: value market size for ice cream, 2019-23
- Graph 22: volume market size for ice cream, 2019-23
- A slightly colder Summer in 2023 led to a drop in volume sales
- Multipacks lead volume and value sales, while family packs take second place
- Multipack sales boosted by Germans seeking value-for-money and smaller formats
- Retail volumes are predicted to stagnate, while value will rise due to price increases
- Rising prices to prompt further value growth
- Volume levels expected to stagnate
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APPENDIX
- Appendix – products covered, abbreviations, consumer research methodology and language usage
- Products covered in this Report
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- A note on language
- Appendix – market size and central forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market size – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – volume
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