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- Key points
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Opportunities
- Market size & forecast for meat substitutes
- Outlook
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OPPORTUNITIES
- Dismantle consumption barriers with tangible anchor ingredients
- Prove your worth to overcome the cost barrier
- Use a tangible, high-value anchor ingredient to give consumers a clearer reason to buy
- Three anchor ingredients to convince Germans on taste
- Consumers want brands to push for fewer, healthier ingredients… even at the cost of meaty appeal
- Where synthetic ingredients are a necessity, focus on demystifying processing
- Mix and match proteins to take the heat off maligned base ingredients, such as soy
- Engage new users – both young and old
- Meat-reducing children and their parents are a fruitful future opportunity for substitute brands…
- …but brands must hand cooking autonomy to parents
- Make-your-own iterations can provide plant-inclined parents the autonomy they crave
- Retain the patronage of curious, but cautious, 45-54 year olds with ultra-unprocessed options
- Explore larger-scale/whole-cut substitutes to generate a sense of familial occasion
- Rügenwalder Mühle’s advert series emphasises togetherness
- Opportunity to stand out from meat by offering a human touch
- Meat substitutes brands must react to the plant-based anxieties of German farmers
- RESPECTfarms envisions a meat-free future led by farmers
- Meat-plant ‘hybrids’ can strike a balance between taste and ethical impact
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THE CONSUMER
- Usage of meat substitutes
- Intent to reduce meat intake has stalled, particularly with core 16-24 year olds…
- …incentivising brands to cater to emerging consumer groups
- Nonetheless, uptake of meat alternatives has surged from 2022-24
- Graph 1: usage of any meat substitutes in the past six months, 2022-24
- Gen X are the most avid meat reducers in 2024…
- Graph 2: reducing meat intake in the last six months, by age group, 2022 vs 2024
- …and are increasingly dipping their toes into meat substitutes
- Graph 3: consumption of any meat substitutes, by age group, 2022 vs 2024
- Accessible breaded meat and cold cuts still leading the way
- Graph 4: consumption of types of meat substitutes in the last six months, 2022 vs 2024
- Users are beginning to incorporate meat substitutes more regularly…
- …suggesting consumers are becoming more comfortable with PB proteins
- Reasons for not consuming meat substitutes
- Taste, price and overprocessing are key barriers to growing participation
- Graph 5: reasons for not eating meat substitutes more often/at all, 2024
- Processing fears challenge brands to cut down ingredient lists and shun unfamiliar ingredients
- Taste and level of processing feed into non-users’ perception of value for money…
- …incentivising brands to dispel myths of plant-based alternatives
- Perception of base ingredients
- Plant ingredients perform differently in taste, texture and nutrition – but soy sinks to the bottom
- Graph 6: attributes associated with meat substitutes made with selected base ingredients, 2024
- For substitutes, being less like meat can be a virtue…
- …empowering brands to highlight the plantlike elements of their products
- Dispel the myths around soy
- Behaviours and attitudes towards meat substitutes
- Children want to eat less meat
- Graph 7: behaviours towards meat substitutes, 2024
- Parents – and their children – are a promising target group for meat substitute brands
- Scope to target children will only grow in the coming years
- Graph 8: consumption of any meat alternatives, by generation and parental status to under-18s, 2024
- Graph 9: agreement that meat alternatives are nutritious enough for children, by generation and parental status to children under 18, 2024
- Promote communal eating occasions to boost the enjoyment factor of meat substitutes
- Graph 10: attitudes towards meat substitutes, 2024
- Do more to create enjoyment for meat substitute users…
- …by offering special-occasion products
- Farmer furore means meat substitute brands must do more to show their human touch
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INNOVATION
- Abundant range extensions show that players favour evolution, not revolution
- Graph 11: meat substitute launches, by launch type, 2020-24
- Private labels have been prolific launchers in 2023-24
- LiveKindly’s Like Meat rebrands to Like
- Wheat and pea are the most used plant proteins, despite a soy-based comeback
- Graph 12: meat substitute launches, selected proteins used, 2014-24
- Planet-conscious players envision a world without soy…
- …while others strive for taste and texture improvement with smoking or marinating
- A unique base ingredient: Vegan Pete brings banana flowers to the German market
- Organic and no additive claims spike, likely in response to ultra-processing fears
- Graph 13: meat substitute launches, by natural claims, 2021-24
- Meat substitute brands are behind the curve on human-oriented ethical claims
- Boost the human appeal of meat substitutes with ethical claims
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MARKET
- Market drivers
- High food prices will challenge Germans’ loyalty to a meat-based diet…
- …but amid ongoing financial challenges, uptake of meat substitutes is far from guaranteed
- Graph 14: usage of meat substitutes, by financial health, 2024
- Plant proteins are on a strong environmental footing, but will still succumb to ‘Heatflation’
- New EU ethics regulations will put soy in the spotlight
- BMEL’s current health strategy shines a light on the need for dietary change, driven by PB eating
- An ageing society is likely to drive meat reduction on health grounds, compelling brands to look to seniors’ needs
- Graph 15: population structure by age, 2022-30
- Market size
- Reignited demand for meat substitutes
- Graph 16: retail volume sales of meat substitutes, 2020-24
- Graph 17: retail value sales of meat substitutes, 2020-24
- Lower retail prices stimulate demand for meat substitutes
- Chilled meat substitutes dictate the market development
- Market forecast
- Value sales expected to grow short-term before leveling off long-term
- Volume sales are forecasted to grow more slowly in the future
- Price wars are expected to stimulate volume demand short term, while putting innovation at risk
- Market share
- Private label as the clear winner…
- …while market leader loses ground
- Don’t lose sight of innovation
- Increased competition is getting to the market leader
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APPENDIX
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Abbreviations and generations
- Abbreviations
- Generations
- Methodology – consumer research
- Consumer research methodology
- A note on language
- Methodology – market size and forecast
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market size – volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – volume
The proportion of consumers using meat substitutes has risen from 42% in 2022 to 49% in 2024, despite core users (German 16-24 year olds) being more likely to eat meat and less likely to reduce their meat intake in 2024 than in 2022.
Supply issues have caused the cost of base ingredients like wheat to fluctuate, while new ethical sourcing regulations could hinder soy sourcing from regions like Brazil. With brands under pressure to reduce – or justify – high prices to cost-sensitive consumers, centring formulations on recognisable, high-value ‘anchors’ (eg avocado oil or mushrooms) can communicate quality and give consumers a more tangible reason to buy.
Consumers are conscious of the issues faced by German agriculture, and see meat as a better way to support farmers. With high costs pricing some users out, brands should work to show their human touch. ‘Hybrids’ that incorporate plant protein and meat byproducts (eg fat, bone broth) can combine ethical appeal with a meatier taste for flexitarian eaters.
While Gen Alpha shows interest in meat reduction, parents are retaining control by making substitutes themselves. Brands can offer parents autonomy with make-your-own kits, while centrepiece products can generate enjoyment for the whole family. Capitalising on interest from Gen X by catering to their interest in health and longevity (eg by evoking Blue Zone diets) will help brands futureproof against the ageing population.
Meat substitutes win new users in 2024, but proving good taste and substantiating low-processing claims are key to retaining these users. Formulations anchored on fewer, more-tangible ingredients stand the best chance.
Adam Millward, Research – Mintel Reports
Market Definitions
This Report covers the retail market for meat substitutes. Meat substitutes are products often made from textured vegetable protein, such as soy, that imitate the texture, flavour and appearance of certain types of meat, such as beef, poultry or fish. This includes products such as mycoprotein-based Quorn. However, they can also be made with plant-based ingredients that do not try to imitate meat, such as vegetable or bean burgers or tofu. Plain tofu is excluded.
For the purposes of market sizes in this Report, Mintel includes the following:
- Sausages
- Meat preparations: including breaded escalope (Schnitzel), nuggets, minced meat, burgers and fish fingers
- Others: including shredded meat (Geschnetzeltes), steaks, fillets and ready meals
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