The early days of October 2024 saw incidences of acute respiratory disease in Germany at 8.7%, compared with 7.9% a year earlier. This, coupled with reports of a strong flu season in Australia and the XEC COVID-19 variant may create the conditions for a strong flu season in Germany, potentially boosting demand for remedies.
There has been a 5.1% increase in the CPI for OTC medication between January and September 2024, vs the same period in 2023. However, growing importance of physical and mental wellbeing amongst Germans is likely to shield the category from price-related downturns in demand.
To address the potential impact of increased uptake in preventative measures on the OTC remedy market (ie VMS usage increased from 60% to 66% between 2021 and 2024), brands can diversify and offer products that provide both relief and protection from cold/flu/allergy symptoms. This will also contribute to perceived value, whilst adding a layer of convenience for the user.
37% of Germans experienced a non-food allergy in the year to May 2024; however, 19% of allergy sufferers take no action to ease their allergy, creating opportunities for OTC brands to encourage effective consumption of remedies (ie take antihistamine before exposure to allergen). These brands can contribute to social projects to reverse urban inequalities.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Market drivers for OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies, including financial and environmental implications
- Experience of cough, cold & flu, and non-food allergies
- Treatments used for ailments and non-food allergies, and the role of preventative options
- Usage of OTC cough, cold, or flu and allergy remedies, and how education can help to build trust
- Purchase channels of OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies, including how drugstores can boost their category presence
- Behaviours towards OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies
- Launch activity and innovation, discussing formats and claims in OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies
- Market size and forecast for OTC analgesics and OTC cough, cold, flu remedies
Germans will increasingly seek preventative options, slowing growth of remedy sales. 2-in-1 offerings will likely attract broadest appeal.
Hannah Sandow, Health & Wellbeing Principal Analyst, Germany
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The five-year outlook for OTC Cough, Cold, Flu & Allergy Remedies
- Market context
- Economic factors and implications for the OTC remedy market
- Climate change may increase pollen count…
- …boosting demand for allergy relief
- Mintel predicts
- Market size & forecast for OTC cough, cold & flu remedies
- Tumultuous period of 2021-23 left behind as market value growth flattens out
- More-moderate growth expected following 2023
- Opportunities
- Provide dual-action remedies offering prevention and cure
- Take a holistic approach to bolster the immune system
- Plug the gap in the market for hydrating cold/flu remedies
- Educate consumers on how best to tackle allergies
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MARKET DRIVERS
- The German economy
- 2024 is expected to remain challenging
- Graph 1: key economic data, in real terms, 2019-25
- Inflation bounces back to more-conventional levels
- Inflation is still the key factor affecting consumers' finances…
- …confidence and expenditure
- Graph 2: financial confidence index, 2022-24
- The impact of the economy on OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies
- Consumer reliance on, and trust in OTC medication may protect volume sales should prices rise further
- Increased focus on physical and mental wellbeing
- Importance of health creates opportunities for preventative supplements
- Health
- COVID-19 strain poses a persistent threat
- Increase in preparedness to address mental health may increase interest in infection prevention
- Allergens
- Pollen count may rise, boosting sales of allergy remedies
- Pet ownership stable, although increased socialising may boost ad hoc sales
- Graph 3: pet ownership, 2019-23
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WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Experience of cough, cold & flu and non-food allergies
- Infection rates remained stable in 2023-24
- Urban dwellers are more likely to experience coughs, colds or flu
- Graph 4: experience of cough, cold or flu in the last 12 months, by area, 2024
- Allergies range in severity, and many sufferers take no remedial action
- Graph 5: experience of non-food allergies in the last 12 months, 2024
- 18-24s most likely to experience non-food allergies
- Graph 6: experience of selected non-food allergies by age, 2024
- Address exposure inequality with urban gardening initiatives
- Dual-purpose remedies can provide convenience and diverse manufacturing
- Treatments used for ailments and non-food allergies
- OTC remedies reign supreme for cough, cold, flu treatment
- Graph 7: treatments used for ailments in the last 12 months, 2024
- Tap into prevention…
- …amid increasing usage of vitamins/supplements
- Homemade remedies will be only a minor threat to OTC sales
- Graph 8: usage of homemade remedies, by type of ailment experienced in the last 12 months, 2023-24
- Target everday life improvement with fast-acting allergy relief remedies
- Graph 9: treatments used for non-food allergies in the last 12 months, 2024
- Encourage a proactive, holistic approach to managing allergies
- Usage of OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies
- Manufacturers have educational work to do to usurp generic painkillers as the go-to cough, cold & flu remedy
- Graph 10: usage of OTC cough, cold, or flu remedies in the last 12 months, 2023-24
- Generic painkillers' simplicity and affordability gives them broad appeal
- Consumers appear to see the value in specialist allergy remedies
- Graph 11: OTC remedies used to treat allergies in the last 12 months, 2024
- Limited launches in eye health sub-category…
- …limit consumer choice for eye health
- Repertoire data indicates that consumers stick with what they trust
- Multiply your reach with multipacks
- Purchase channels of OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies
- In-store purchasing preferred across most purchase channels
- Graph 12: purchase channels of OTC cough, cold, flu and allergy remedies in the last 12 months, 2024
- Drugstores can boost status by developing natural preventative allergy remedies
- Utilise AI to develop consumer trust in online purchases
- Graph 13: purchase channels for OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies, online vs in-store, 2024
- Behaviours towards OTC cough, cold, flu & allergy remedies
- Maintaining consumer trust in pharmacies and OTC medications will be key for category growth
- Graph 14: behaviours towards OTC allergy and cough, cold & flu remedies, 2024
- Educate consumers not to delay antihistamine medication; build trust with non-drowsy remedies
- OTC remedies remain a crutch for out-of-home workers to get through the day
- Graph 15: treatments used for cold/flu in the last 12 months, by employment location, 2024
- Bayer Gesundheit demonstrates remedy utility in the home office
- Tap into the wider trend for hydration with multi-action OTC remedies
- Brands combine hydration and immune support
- Behaviours towards ailments and allergies
- Manufacturers can help consumers towards incremental health improvements to strengthen immune defences
- Graph 16: behaviours towards ailments and allergies, 2024
- Explain the holistic health benefits of a healthy gut
- Encourage relaxation with stress-relieving remedies…
- …to act as a preventative solution
- Holistic health options for stress relief, and thus immune system support
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LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- Decongestive launches rise, whilst allergy-relief innovation stagnates
- Graph 17: healthcare NPD by sub-category, 2019-24
- Soften the blow of ailments with softer formats
- Functional and natural claims lead the way for decongestive, cough, cold & flu
- Graph 18: NPD in decongestive, cough, cold & flu relief by claim category, 2019-24
- Functional claims centre around antibacterial and immune system claims
- Graph 19: decongestive, cough, cold & flu NPD by functional claim*, 2019-24
- Educate to boost active ingredients' status
- Graph 20: NPD in decongestive, cough, cold & flu relief by ingredient claim, 2019-24
- Minus claims bear the potential to expedite treatment
- Advertising and marketing activity
- LoranoPro offers a strong, fast-acting, non-drowsy allergy remedy
- Sandoz 2-in-1 eye and nose relief allows consumers to spray their hayfever away
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MARKET SIZE, SEgmentation AND FORECAST
- Strong market value growth 2021-23
- Graph 21: retail value sales of OTC cough, cold & flu medication, 2019-23
- More-moderate growth expected following 2023
- Expect steady, modest growth to follow the recent tempestuous period
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APPENDIX
- Appendix – products covered, abbreviations, consumer research methodology and language usage
- Products covered in this Report
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- A note on language
- Appendix – market size and central forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Market size – value
- Market forecast and prediction intervals – value
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