2022
9
UK Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) Market Report 2022
2022-04-27T04:07:23+01:00
OX1101877
2195
150831
[{"name":"Retail","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/retail"}]
Report
en_GB
“The lingering impact of the pandemic on households have been made more complex by further economic uncertainty amidst rising living costs and inflation as well as geopolitical turmoil - all…

UK Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) Market Report 2022

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Report Summary

“The lingering impact of the pandemic on households have been made more complex by further economic uncertainty amidst rising living costs and inflation as well as geopolitical turmoil – all of which are set to influence consumer confidence. In 2021, spending on seasonal events was well on its way to recovery as lifted restrictions saw events benefit from underlying demand. However, at a time when economic confidence is wavering, shoppers will be tightening budgets while second-hand buying will appeal to people wanting to enjoy seasonal events but look to retailers to celebrate in alternative ways that offer value.”

– Emily Viberg, Retail Analyst, April 2022

This report covers the following issues:

  • Impacts of the income squeeze on seasonal shopping habits
  • Market sizes for seasonal shopping events
  • Seasonal shopping behaviours
  • What seasonal gifts and products are bought
  • How gifts and products for seasonal events are bought
  • Innovations from retailers during seasonal events
  • How retailers can capture spend beyond promotions and deals during seasonal events
  • How sustainable shopping habits can also help shoppers save money during seasonal events

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Market context
          • Products covered in this Report
          • Executive Summary

              • The five-year outlook for seasonal shopping
                • Figure 1: Category outlook, 2022-27
              • The market
                • Seasonal shopping events on the road to recovery
                  • Figure 2: Estimated consumer spending on the autumn/winter retail events, 2019-22
                • Parents increase spending on stationery as children go back to school
                  • Figure 3: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on back-to-school products in 2021
                • Fancy dress dominates spending as ban on events are lifted
                  • Figure 4: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products in 2021
                • Bonfire Night spending on fireworks grows
                  • Figure 5: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products in 2021
                • In-home food and drink captures most Valentine’s spend in 2022
                  • Figure 6: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products, 2021
                • Key seasonal shopping demographics to be impacted by rising inflation
                  • Figure 7: Real wage growth – Average weekly earnings vs inflation, 2016-22
                • Caution entering the discretionary market
                  • Figure 8: How consumers will spend extra money, 2022
                • Autumn captures majority of sales
                  • Figure 9: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season 2021
                • Recovery seen across most categories
                  • Figure 10: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019-21
                • Leading categories recover post-COVID
                  • Figure 11: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2021
                • Online retail sales sustained by changing shopping habits
                  • Figure 12: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by month, 2019-21
                • Companies and brands
                  • Advertising spend increases in 2021
                    • Figure 13: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2019-21
                  • Last quarter of the year is the biggest in terms of ad spend
                    • Figure 14: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by quarter, as % of total spending, 2019-21
                  • The consumer
                    • Back-to-school purchasing remains stable
                      • Figure 15: Back-to-school purchasing, 2019-21
                    • Halloween product buying back to pre-pandemic levels
                      • Figure 16: Halloween product purchasing, 2019-21
                    • Valentine’s Day purchasing stable year-on-year
                      • Figure 17: Valentine’s Day gift purchasing, 2020-22
                    • Parents cut back on computer equipment as children return to school
                      • Figure 18: Average amount spent on back-to-school equipment, 2019-21
                    • Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night bounce back
                      • Figure 19: How much shoppers spent on Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2019-21
                    • Valentine’s Day spending still has some way to go
                      • Figure 20: How much they spend on Valentine’s Day gifts, 2020-22
                    • Over a third of parent’s shop at Amazon
                      • Figure 21: Where parents shop for back-to-school equipment, 2021
                    • Halloween and Bonfire Night shopping is made in-store
                      • Figure 22: How they buy Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2020-21
                    • Valentine’s Day shopping return to stores
                      • Figure 23: How they buy Valentine’s Day gifts, 2021-22
                    • Special meal at home the most popular Valentine’s Day celebration
                      • Figure 24: Valentine’s Day activities, 2022
                    • Parents want adjustable school uniforms
                      • Figure 25: Back-to-school actions, 2021
                    • Halloween and Bonfire Night-goers worry products lead to too much waste
                      • Figure 26: Halloween and Bonfire Night behaviours, 2021
                    • Valentine’s Day gift shoppers personalise gifts online
                      • Figure 27: Valentine’s Day behaviours, 2022
                  • Issues and Insights

                    • The impact of the income squeeze on seasonal shopping events
                      • Rising consumer prices will affect what they buy at seasonal events…
                        • …and how they shop for gifts and products
                          • How can retailers attract spend beyond discounts and promotions?
                            • Offer flexible payment options
                              • Promote and highlight own-label ranges
                                • Encourage alternative shopping habits that are greener…and help grow savings
                                  • How shopping eco-friendly can simultaneously help save money
                                    • Reward and enable conscious shopping habits
                                      • Leverage technology to empower sustainable behaviours online and in-store
                                      • Market Size and Performance

                                        • Seasonal shopping events on the road to recovery
                                          • Figure 28: Estimated consumer spending on the autumn/winter retail events, 2019-22
                                        • Parents increase spending on stationery as children go back-to-school
                                          • Figure 29: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on back-to-school products in 2021
                                          • Figure 30: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on back-to-school products in 2018-21
                                        • Fancy dress dominates spending as ban on events are lifted
                                          • Figure 31: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products in 2021
                                          • Figure 32: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products, 2019-21
                                        • Bonfire Night spending on fireworks grows
                                          • Figure 33: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products in 2021
                                          • Figure 34: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products, 2019-21
                                        • In-home food and drink capture most spend in 2022
                                          • Figure 35: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products, 2021
                                          • Figure 36: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products, 2020-22
                                      • Market Drivers

                                        • GDP reached pre-pandemic levels in November 2021…
                                          • Inflation is the key concern for 2022 for consumers, brands and the economy
                                            • The conflict in Ukraine will hurt the UK economy
                                              • Key seasonal shopping demographics to be impacted by rising inflation
                                                • Figure 37: Real wage growth – Average weekly earnings vs inflation, 2016-22
                                              • Consumers’ financial wellbeing has slipped from its recent high point…
                                                • Figure 38: Household financial wellbeing index, 2016-22
                                              • …and concerns over inflation are coming to the fore
                                                • Figure 39: Consumer concerns about household finances, 2021-22
                                              • Caution entering the discretionary market
                                                • Figure 40: How consumers will spend extra money, 2022
                                              • Population set to grow older
                                                • Figure 41: Population trends in the UK, 2020-30
                                                • Figure 42: Population trends in the UK, 2020-30
                                            • Retail Sales

                                              • Autumn captures majority of sales
                                                • Figure 43: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season 2021
                                              • Retail sales recover post COVID
                                                • Figure 44: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2020 and 2021
                                              • Growth rates level out
                                                • Figure 45: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019-21
                                              • Recovery seen across most categories
                                                • Figure 46: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019-21
                                              • Leading categories recover post-COVID
                                                • Figure 47: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2021
                                            • Online Retail Sales

                                              • Online retail sales sustained by changing shopping habits
                                                • Figure 48: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by month, 2019-21
                                              • November biggest month in terms of retail sales
                                                • Figure 49: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2020-21
                                                • Figure 50: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019-2021
                                            • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                              • Back-to-school
                                                • M&S Kids launches new partnership with Clarks shoes
                                                  • Clarks open pop-up
                                                    • Halloween/Bonfire Night
                                                      • Morrisons launches reusable and sustainable Halloween costumes for kids
                                                        • Figure 51: Morrisons’s reusable costumes, 2021
                                                      • Lidl releasing ‘Trick or Treat’ flavoured Halloween sausages
                                                        • Aldi’s spooky glow in the dark roses for Halloween
                                                          • Figure 52: Aldi’s glow in the dark flowers, 2021
                                                        • Valentine’s Day
                                                          • Asda offers meal deal for two and a free Sky Movie voucher
                                                            • Moonpig launches heat-reactive Valentine’s Day cards hiding secret messages
                                                              • Figure 53: Moonpig heat-reactive Valentine’s Day cards, 2022
                                                            • M&S partners with Metro to promote Valentine’s Day flowers
                                                              • Figure 54: M&S and Metro Valentine’s Day collaboration, 2022
                                                            • Tesco launches braille Valentine’s Day cards
                                                              • Figure 55: Tesco’s braille Valentine’s Day cards, 2022
                                                          • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                            • Advertising spend increases in 2021
                                                              • Figure 56: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2019-21
                                                            • Last quarter of the year is the biggest in terms of ad spend
                                                              • Figure 57: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by quarter, as % of total spending, 2019-21
                                                            • Digital advertising surpasses pre-pandemic levels
                                                              • Figure 58: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as a % of total spending, 2019-21
                                                            • Key campaigns
                                                              • Asda launches a ‘Big Freakend’ Halloween Campaign
                                                                • George at Asda’s ‘arrive like you mean it’ back-to-school campaign
                                                                  • Very launches back-to-school online and OOH campaign
                                                                    • Figure 59: Very back-to-school pop-up, 2021
                                                                  • M&S focuses on sustainability in back-to-school campaign
                                                                    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                    • What They Buy for Seasonal Events

                                                                      • Back-to-school purchasing remains stable
                                                                        • Figure 60: Back-to-school purchasing, 2019-21
                                                                      • Halloween product buying back to pre-pandemic level
                                                                        • Figure 61: Halloween product purchasing, 2019-21
                                                                      • Bonfire Night purchasing levels surpass pre-pandemic levels
                                                                        • Figure 62: Bonfire Night product purchasing, 2019-21
                                                                      • Younger generations keen Halloween and Bonfire Night buyers
                                                                        • Figure 63: Halloween and Bonfire Night product purchasing, by generation, 2021
                                                                      • Rising prices set to hamper purchasing levels for lower income households
                                                                        • Figure 64: Halloween and Bonfire Night product purchasing, by household income, 2021
                                                                      • Valentine’s Day purchasing stable year-on-year
                                                                        • Figure 65: Valentine’s Day gift purchasing, 2020-22
                                                                      • Gift purchasing skews towards wealthier consumers
                                                                        • Figure 66: Valentine’s Day gift purchasing, by socioeconomic background, 2020-22
                                                                    • How Much They Spend on Seasonal Gifts and Products

                                                                      • Spending on computer equipment still above pre-pandemic levels
                                                                        • Figure 67: Average amount spent on back-to-school equipment, 2019-21
                                                                      • Spending on Halloween and Bonfire Night bounce back
                                                                        • Figure 68: How much shoppers spent on Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2019-21
                                                                      • 16-34s keenest Halloween shoppers
                                                                        • Figure 69: How much shoppers spent on Halloween products, by age group, 2021
                                                                      • Valentine’s Day spending still has some way to go
                                                                        • Figure 70: How much they spend on Valentine’s Day gifts, 2020-22
                                                                      • Valentine’s Day shoppers buy gifts for their partner
                                                                        • Figure 71: Who they buy Valentine’s Day gifts for, 2022
                                                                    • How and Where They Shop for Seasonal Events

                                                                      • Over a third of parent’s shop at Amazon
                                                                          • Figure 72: Where parents shop for back-to-school equipment, 2021
                                                                        • Halloween and Bonfire Night shopping undertaken in-store
                                                                          • Figure 73: How they buy Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2020-21
                                                                        • Supermarkets are popular to shop at for Halloween and Bonfire Night
                                                                          • Figure 74: Which retailers they buy Halloween and Bonfire Night products from, 2021
                                                                        • Valentine’s Day shopping return to stores
                                                                          • Figure 75: How they buy Valentine’s Day gifts, 2021-22
                                                                      • Valentine’s Day Activities

                                                                        • Special meal at home the most popular Valentine’s Day celebration
                                                                          • Figure 76: Valentine’s Day activities, 2022
                                                                        • Younger consumers celebrate with out-of-home activities
                                                                          • Figure 77: Valentine’s Day activities, by age group, 2022
                                                                      • Back-to-School Behaviours

                                                                        • Parents want adjustable school uniforms
                                                                          • Parents are comfortable using online fitting tools
                                                                            • BNPL schemes appeal to parents
                                                                              • Parents are interested in returning used school items for discounts on new products
                                                                                • Figure 78: Back-to-school actions, 2021
                                                                            • Halloween and Bonfire Night Behaviours

                                                                              • A majority worry Halloween and Bonfire Night products lead to too much waste
                                                                                • Halloween and Bonfire Night shoppers look to retailers for greener habits
                                                                                  • Halloween costumes could be more inclusive
                                                                                    • Figure 79: Halloween and Bonfire Night behaviours, 2021
                                                                                  • 16-34s look to make Halloween and Bonfire Night celebrations more eco-friendly
                                                                                    • Figure 80: Halloween and Bonfire Night behaviours, by age group, 2021
                                                                                  • Older consumers worried about the waste from Halloween and Bonfire Night product
                                                                                    • Figure 81: Percentage of consumers who think buying for Halloween/Bonfire Night produces too much waste, 2021
                                                                                • Valentine’s Day Behaviours

                                                                                  • A majority believe it is easier to personalise gifts online
                                                                                    • Handmade gifts a good way to save money on Valentine’s Day gifts
                                                                                      • Figure 82: Valentine’s Day behaviours, 2022
                                                                                    • Consumers from lower income households look to celebrate Valentine’s Day affordably
                                                                                      • Figure 83: Valentine’s Day behaviours, by household income, 2022
                                                                                    • Younger consumers prioritise activities for Valentine’s Day
                                                                                      • Figure 84: Valentine’s Day behaviours, by age group, 2022
                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology

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