2020
9
The Future of Eating Out Market Report 2020
2020-10-06T15:36:22+01:00
OX989440
2195
125609
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Report
en_GB
“Eating out will become more of a treat giving an opportunity for foodservice venues to create more premium options to fit special occasions. But first, an effective response to COVID-19…

The Future of Eating Out Market Report 2020

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Description

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the The Future of Eating Out: Incl Impact of COVID-19 – US market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

Mintel’s Global COVID-19 Tracker shows that consumer confidence in eating out is gradually improving, with 41% of Brits saying they would feel comfortable going to an outdoor restaurant/bar as of 30 July-7 August compared to 27% at the end of June (on the eve of premises reopening). The government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme will help to kickstart the hospitality industry as consumers are incentivised to visit these venues for a meal during the month of August 2020 (from Mondays to Wednesdays). Meanwhile the VAT cut on food and non-alcoholic drinks will help to keep prices down and will ensure more foodservice businesses stay afloat.

All reports purchased from the Mintel Store now come with free access to our COVID-19 Global Insights Hub, allowing you to understand how industries and consumer behaviour is changing worldwide.

 

What does the COVID-19 Global Insights Hub give you access to?

  • Over 450 pieces of research (with more published each week) addressing markets across the globe.
  • Discover how people in countries at different stages of the crisis are adjusting to the ‘new normal’.
  • Trending industries which have seen growth due to the changes in circumstance.
  • Our latest consumer research surveys, allowing you to see customers views right now.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Trish Caddy, a leading analyst in the Foodservice sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Eating out will become more of a treat giving an opportunity for foodservice venues to create more premium options to fit special occasions. But first, an effective response to COVID-19 is required to safeguard the future of eating out. The virus should prove to be the catalyst for the adoption of new technology across the industry to build hygiene defences and drive long-term sustainability Trish Caddy
Senior Foodservice Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Products covered in this Report
    • COVID-19: Market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
  2. Executive Summary

    • Impact of COVID-19 on foodservice
      • Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, in short, medium and long term, 19 August 2020
    • The market
    • Sharp recovery expected after record decline in market value
      • Figure 2: Forecast value of the UK foodservice market (adjusted for COVID-19 on 19 August 2020), 2015-25
    • Eat Out to Help Out scheme and VAT cut
    • Companies and brands
    • COVID-19 has spurred disruptive innovations
    • “Grocerants”
    • Dark kitchens
    • Al fresco dining
    • Value-added deals
    • eCommerce
    • The consumer
    • Consumers starting to feel comfortable eating out again
      • Figure 3: Comfort level of going out to eat, 25 June-7 August 2020
    • Two fifths of consumers haven’t ordered a takeaway since lockdown
      • Figure 4: Changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
    • People living in large towns are now the biggest weekend takeaway users
      • Figure 5: Days of the week usage for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
    • Childless couples drive dinner takeaways
      • Figure 6: Most popular mealtimes for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
    • Gen-Zs boosting the fast food market
      • Figure 7: Fast food outlets visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
    • Pizza delivery weathering COVID-19 downturn
      • Figure 8: Restaurants visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the pandemic, May 2020
    • Avoid the “squeezed middle”
      • Figure 9: Purchase drivers for takeaway/home delivery food, May 2020
    • Resurgence of eating out as a treat
      • Figure 10: Important factors for making decisions about eating/drinking, May 2020
    • Experiential marketing in COVID-19 times
      • Figure 11: Attitudes towards eating out, May 2020
  3. COVID-19 and Foodservice

    • Impact on the market
    • Flexible working practices will redistribute foodservice spend
    • Government support to help the recovery of foodservice
    • Impact on consumers
    • Consumers starting to feel comfortable eating out again
    • Resurgence of eating out as an occasional treat rather than the norm
    • Deepening technological capabilities
    • Impact on companies and brands
    • Dark kitchens
    • Al fresco dining
    • Value-added deals
    • eCommerce
  4. Issues and Insights

    • Post-COVID-19: Brits likely to save dining out for special occasions
    • Everyday low pricing will attract cost-conscious consumers
    • Creating transparency and trust in hygiene
    • Deepening technological capabilities
  5. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • Sharp recovery expected after record decline in market value
    • Eating out expenditure to be redistributed
    • Eat Out to Help Out scheme will kickstart recovery
  6. Market Drivers

    • Government measures help to kickstart recovery
    • Foodservice venues finally given the green light to reopen for dine-in
    • Eat Out to Help Out scheme and VAT cut
    • Health matters: obesity and the food environment
    • A challenging economy will hurt demand for foodservice
    • Decline of the workforce
      • Figure 12: Unemployment rate forecast, 2020-24
    • Squeezed incomes will restrict eating out expenditure
      • Figure 13: Consumer confidence, January-July 2020
    • COVID-19 has spurred disruptive innovations
    • Ban on plastics likely to be pushed back
  7. Market Size and Forecast

    • VAT cut and “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme help kickstart the foodservice market
      • Figure 14: Expected impact of COVID-19 on foodservice, in short, medium and long term, 19 August 2020
    • The market
    • Sharp recovery expected after record decline in market value
      • Figure 15: Forecast value of the UK foodservice market (adjusted for COVID-19 on 19 August 2020), 2015-25
      • Figure 16: UK eating out market size and forecast, 2015-25
    • Market drivers and assumptions
      • Figure 17: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-24 (prepared July 2020)
    • Learnings from the last recession
      • Figure 18: UK eating out market size and forecast, 2007-12
    • Forecast methodology
    • COVID-19: Market context
  8. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Meal kits allow restaurants to profit from home cooking boom
    • Ready-to-cook meals allow customers to replicate favourite restaurant dishes at home
    • Selling groceries appeals to customers who are keen to support local
    • Dark kitchens allow brands to expand food delivery reach
    • Al fresco dining mitigates customers’ reluctance to dine indoors
    • Mobile catering allows brands to go straight to customers
    • Set menus allow operators to optimise ingredients
    • Scope for online activities to boost ecommerce
  9. Launch Activity and Innovation

    • COVID-19 has spurred disruptive innovations
    • Online activities will boost nationwide delivery
    • Deposits and tickets to deal with no-shows
    • Playing with supermarket checkout
    • Farmers’ market
      • Figure 19: US Chipotle’s Virtual Farmers’ Market, started in 1 July 2020
    • Frozen food
    • Ready-to-cook
    • Grab-and-go
    • Meal kits
    • Future is in dark kitchens
      • Figure 20: Dishoom delivery through Deliveroo Editions, as of 19 August 2020
    • More collaboration, less competition
    • Multi-brand delivery
    • Mobile catering
    • Value-added deals
    • From fine dining to fried chicken
    • Set menus
    • Al fresco dining
    • Shortening dining times
    • Sustainability takes a backseat
    • Low-tech delivery functions
  10. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • Post-COVID-19: three Trend Drivers of growth
    • Wellbeing
    • Value
    • Experience
    • COVID-19 will accelerate demand for functional food and drink
    • Resurgence of eating out as an occasional treat rather than the norm
    • Deepening technological capabilities
    • Sustainability takes a backseat
    • Hygiene will become top of mind for most
  11. Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour

    • Consumers starting to feel comfortable eating out again
      • Figure 21: Comfort level of going out to eat, 25 June-7 August 2020
    • Winter is coming
      • Figure 22: Proportion of consumers who feel uncomfortable going to a restaurant/bar indoors, by age, 30 July-7 August 2020
    • Continue to deliver
      • Figure 23: Spending intent over the next month, 25 June-7 August 2020
  12. Pre-COVID-19 Eating Out Frequency

    • Cooking at home is part and parcel of British lifestyles
      • Figure 24: Frequency of eating out before the pandemic, May 2020
    • Consumers were willing to spend on eating out of the home in normal conditions
  13. Changes in Home Delivery Frequency during COVID-19

    • Two fifths of consumers haven’t ordered a takeaway since lockdown
      • Figure 25: Changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
    • Frequent users are ordering more takeaway
      • Figure 26: Frequency of ordering a takeaway/home delivery before the pandemic, by changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
  14. Days of the Week that Consumers Order Takeaway

    • People living in large towns are now the biggest weekend takeaway users
      • Figure 27: Days of the week usage for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
    • Weekday users are ordering more takeaway
      • Figure 28: Days of the week usage for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, by changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
  15. Most Popular Mealtimes for Takeaway

    • Childless couples drive dinner takeaways
      • Figure 29: Most popular mealtimes for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
    • Parents driving breakfast and lunch
  16. Fast Food Venues Visited for Takeaway

    • Gen-Zs boosting the fast food market
      • Figure 30: Fast food outlets visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
  17. Restaurants Visited for Takeaway

    • Pizza delivery weathering COVID-19 downturn
      • Figure 31: Restaurants visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
    • Ethnic cuisines still preferred by all
      • Figure 32: Restaurants visited for takeaway/delivery occasions since the start of the pandemic, by changes in takeaway/home delivery frequency during COVID-19, May 2020
  18. Purchase Drivers for Takeaway

    • Re-evaluating ‘value’ priorities in the wake of COVID-19
      • Figure 33: Purchase drivers for takeaway/home delivery food, May 2020
    • Avoid the “squeezed middle”
    • Convenience centres on safety
  19. Factors that Influence Consumers’ Choice of Food and Drink

    • Resurgence of eating out as a treat
      • Figure 34: Important factors for making decisions about eating/drinking, May 2020
    • Young consumers will prioritise functional food and drink
    • 16-34 year olds: mind-body wellness
    • 16-24 year olds: fit food
      • Figure 35: Important factors for making decisions about eating/drinking, by days of the week usage for takeaway/home delivery since the start of the pandemic, May 2020
  20. Attitudes towards the Future of Eating Out

    • Safety first
      • Figure 36: Attitudes towards eating out, May 2020
    • Experiential marketing in COVID-19 times
    • Innovation to build a better post-COVID-19 market
    • Packaging
    • Robotics
    • Grocerants are here to stay – CHAID Analysis
      • Figure 37: The future of eating out – CHAID – Tree output, May 2020
  21. Eating Out Consumer Segmentation

    • COVID-19 consumer tribes
      • Figure 38: Eating out consumer segmentation – cluster analysis, May 2020
    • Typical characteristics of each group
    • Engaged Diners
    • Futurists
    • Cautious Planners
  22. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • Consumer research methodology
    • CHAID Methodology
      • Figure 39: The future of eating out – CHAID – Table output, May 2020
    • Cluster analysis group definitions
    • Experiential Marketing
    • Food safety
    • Pro-innovation

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