2020
9
UK Added Value in Dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream Market Report 2020
2020-08-27T15:56:31+01:00
OX988556
2195
123325
[{"name":"Milk and Dairy Drinks","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/drinks\/milk-dairy"}]
Report
en_GB
“The impact of COVID-19 on the dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market will be limited. A surge of in-home milk consumption in hot drinks, cooking and baking will…

UK Added Value in Dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream Market Report 2020

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Report Summary

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Dairy and Non-Dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream: Inc Impact of COVID-19 – UK market, and the behaviours, statistics, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

Milk enjoyed a boost to volume sales during the panic buying in March 2020 amid the COVID-19 outbreak. It is also benefiting from the heightened demand through retail during lockdown as the day’s food and drink occasions take place at home, as well as the rise in home cooking and baking. Sales in the milk, cream and flavoured milk market are anticipated to rise by 7% by value and 4% by volume in 2020 to £3.66 billion and 5.47 billion litres.

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Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Kate Vlietstra, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The impact of COVID-19 on the dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market will be limited. A surge of in-home milk consumption in hot drinks, cooking and baking will boost retail sales during the lockdown. In the medium to long term, sustainability will continue to pique consumer interest and concerns around milk production will need to be addressed Kate Vlietstra
Global Food and Drink Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Products covered in this Report
        • Executive Summary

            • Impact of COVID-19 on Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream
              • Stockpiling and lockdown expected to drive a surge in volume sales in 2020
                • Fall in volume sales predicted for 2020-24
                  • Figure 1: Retail value sales of milk^, cream and flavoured milk, 2014-24
                  • Figure 2: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream retail market, short, medium and long term, 3rd June 2020
                • The market
                  • Dominant white milk sees declining value
                    • Figure 3: Retail value sales of milk^, by broad segment, 2017-19
                  • Cream category’s fall continues, flavoured milk posts further growth
                    • Spotlight on sustainability impacts milk
                      • The decline in child population poses a challenge to milk
                        • Companies and brands
                          • Own-label continues to dominate white milk, plant-based brands on the rise
                            • Figure 4: UK retail sales of white milk^, by leading brands, by value, 2019/20*
                          • Own-label continues to dominate cream, Starbucks gains in flavoured milk
                            • Ethical and environmental claims surge
                              • Plant-based milk and cream launches rise
                                • Functional health claims extend beyond bone health
                                  • Adspend stands at £7.4 million
                                    • The consumer
                                      • Milk usage remains high at 94% among UK adults
                                        • Figure 5: Usage of milk, dairy drinks and non-dairy alternatives, by type, February 2020
                                      • Younger consumers are key users in the cream category
                                        • Figure 6: Usage of cream, by type, February 2020
                                      • Two in five are prepared to pay more than £1.20 for a four-pint bottle of milk
                                        • Figure 7: How much consumers are prepared to pay for standard white cow’s milk, February 2020
                                      • Sustainability piques consumer interest
                                        • Figure 8: Interest in new product concepts, February 2020
                                      • Half of milk/cream users and buyers prefer cartons to plastic bottles
                                        • Figure 9: Behaviours relating to dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, February 2020
                                      • Two in five people see milk production as damaging to the environment
                                        • Figure 10: Attitudes towards dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, February 2020
                                      • Health is important for one in three flavoured milk buyers
                                        • Figure 11: Choice factors for flavoured milk, February 2020
                                      • What we think
                                      • The Impact of COVID-19 on the Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream Market

                                        • Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
                                          • Figure 12: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream retail market, short, medium and long term, 3rd June 2020
                                        • Opportunities and Threats
                                          • The lockdown and its aftermath will boost in-home hot drinks consumption, benefiting milk
                                            • Milk brands can benefit from dialling up health cues
                                              • Sales of long-life milk soar during stockpiling
                                                • Impact on the Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream Market
                                                  • Stockpiling and lockdown expected to drive a surge in volume sales in 2020
                                                    • Figure 13: Forecast of UK retail value sales of dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, 2014-24
                                                  • Milk suppliers face challenges during the COVID-19 lockdown
                                                    • Use of online channels and milk deliveries boosted
                                                      • Figure 14: Shopping behaviour changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 14th May-21st May 2020
                                                    • Shifts in consumer behaviour
                                                      • Focus on health will endure
                                                        • Figure 15: Changes to priorities since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, eating healthily and local community, 14th-21st May 2020
                                                      • Consumers in favour of supporting local communities
                                                        • Food safety gains prominence
                                                          • Impact on dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream key consumer segments
                                                            • Declining birth rates pose a challenge for the market
                                                              • Figure 16: Trends in the number of live births, England and Wales, 2000-18
                                                            • The expected income squeeze on the young holds potential for cow’s milk and a challenge for plant-based
                                                              • Figure 17: UK population, by age, 2019 and 2024
                                                            • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market
                                                              • Recession will hit consumer expenditure
                                                                • The price of milk will once again be a focal point
                                                                  • In-home breakfast and hot beverage consumption will enjoy an enduring uplift
                                                                    • Uplift in home cooking could boost cream sales
                                                                      • Flavoured milk brands must be proactive to maintain usage
                                                                        • Impact on the marketing mix
                                                                          • Using social media to suggest ways to keep busy during lockdown
                                                                            • Brands engage with altruism towards friends, family and the community
                                                                              • A plea to the British public to drink more milk
                                                                                • COVID-19: Market context
                                                                                • Issues and Insights

                                                                                  • Sustainability piques consumer interest
                                                                                    • The facts
                                                                                      • The implications
                                                                                        • Dairy and non-dairy blends can offer both health and taste benefits
                                                                                          • The facts
                                                                                            • The implications
                                                                                              • Aligning with cooking and plant-based trend holds potential for cream
                                                                                                • The facts
                                                                                                  • The implications
                                                                                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                    • Consumer stockpiling and lockdown expected to drive a surge in volume sales in 2020
                                                                                                      • Fall in volume sales predicted for 2020-24
                                                                                                        • Dominant white milk sees declining value
                                                                                                          • Cream category’s fall continues, flavoured milk posts further growth
                                                                                                            • Spotlight on sustainability impacts milk too
                                                                                                              • The decline in child population poses a challenge to milk
                                                                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                • Consumer stockpiling and lockdown expected to drive a surge in volume sales in 2020
                                                                                                                  • Figure 18: Retail value and volume sales of milk^, cream and flavoured milk, 2014-24
                                                                                                                  • Figure 19: Retail value sales of milk^, cream and flavoured milk, 2014-24
                                                                                                                  • Figure 20: Retail volume sales of milk^, cream and flavoured milk, 2014-24
                                                                                                                • Note: For details of the related economic assumption, see COVID-19: Market context section
                                                                                                                  • Fall in volume sales and rise in value sales predicted for 2020-24
                                                                                                                    • Retail sales to lose ground to foodservice, but tempered by income squeeze
                                                                                                                      • Plant-based milks could gain from increased consumer health-consciousness, but lose out from income squeeze
                                                                                                                        • Consumer health concerns to limit sales of cream and flavoured milk
                                                                                                                          • Falling birth rates to impact both white and flavoured milk
                                                                                                                            • Post-Brexit situation to have different effects for different segments
                                                                                                                            • Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                              • White milk dominates market despite declining value and volume
                                                                                                                                • Cow’s milk struggles to entice younger consumers
                                                                                                                                  • Long-life milk sales maintain growth
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 21: Retail value sales of white milk, by fresh and long-life, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Retail volume sales of white milk, by fresh and long-life, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                  • Conventional cow’s milk faces gradual decline
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Retail value sales of white milk, by type, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Retail volume sales of white milk, by type, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                  • Single cream volume decline hits the cream category
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Retail value sales of cream, by type, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Retail volume sales of cream, by type, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                  • Flavoured milk shows steady growth
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Retail value sales of flavoured milk, dairy smoothies and milk modifiers, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Retail volume sales of flavoured milk, milk smoothies and milk modifiers, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                • Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                  • Sustainability is important to many consumers
                                                                                                                                    • Concern over plastic impacts consumer behaviour
                                                                                                                                      • Deposit Return Scheme likely to cover flavoured milk
                                                                                                                                        • Shift towards plant-based milk led by younger consumers
                                                                                                                                          • The decline in child population poses a challenge to milk
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 29: UK population, by age, 2019 and 2024
                                                                                                                                          • Concerns over sugar prompt government attention
                                                                                                                                            • Farmgate milk prices fell and rose in 2019
                                                                                                                                              • Brexit outcome will affect milk prices
                                                                                                                                              • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                • Own-label continues to dominate white milk, plant-based brands on the rise
                                                                                                                                                  • Own-label continues to dominate cream, Starbucks gains in flavoured milk
                                                                                                                                                    • Ethical and environmental claims surge
                                                                                                                                                      • Plant-based milk and cream launches rise
                                                                                                                                                        • Functional health claims extend beyond bone health
                                                                                                                                                          • Adspend stands at £7.4 million
                                                                                                                                                          • Market Share

                                                                                                                                                            • Own-label loses out from the decline in the white milk market
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail white milk^ market, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                                            • Dairy reduction trend boosts Oatly
                                                                                                                                                              • Graham’s ethical focus allows it to buck negative trend in cow’s milk
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK retail white milk^ market, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                                              • Own-label dominates cream sales but experiences flat sales
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK cream market, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                                              • Elmlea loses out from shifts in consumer health perceptions
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK cream market, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                                              • Starbucks’ drinks surge ahead as growth in flavoured milk continues
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail flavoured milk market, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                                              • Yazoo gains sales at the expense of FRijj
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK flavoured milk market, 2017-19
                                                                                                                                                            • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                              • Ethical and environmental claims surge
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: New product launches in the UK dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market carrying an ethical claim, by claim (sorted by 2019), 2017-20
                                                                                                                                                              • Arla looks to spotlight its environmentally friendly packaging
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Arla Eco-Cycle Organic Bottle and Jude’s Salted Caramel Milkshake in a can, 2019
                                                                                                                                                              • Sustainability claims warrant further detail
                                                                                                                                                                • Organic launches leap ahead
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Arla Lactofree Organic Semi Skimmed Milk Drink, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                • Organic milk can add environmental detail
                                                                                                                                                                  • Rebel Kitchen and Daylesford Organic spell out ethical credentials
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Examples of new organic milk launches in the UK, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                                                  • Activity within plant-based milk and cream is on the rise
                                                                                                                                                                    • Plant-based milk makes up over half of all launches
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: New dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream launches in the UK, 2017-20
                                                                                                                                                                    • Alpro revamps packaging
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Alpro Unsweetened Roasted Almond Drink repackaging, 2019 and 2020
                                                                                                                                                                    • Plant-based milk taps into usage occasions
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: New plant-based milk drink launches designed for specific uses in the UK, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                                                    • Plant-based Elmlea cream hits the shelves
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Elmlea Plant Alternative to Dairy Cream, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                    • Functional health claims extend beyond bone health
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: New dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream product launches with functional claims in the UK, 2017-20
                                                                                                                                                                    • Dairy milks spotlight their nutrients
                                                                                                                                                                      • Plant-based milk highlights the benefits of fortification
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: New plant-based milk drink launches with functional claims in the UK, 2019-20
                                                                                                                                                                      • Functional claims can add value
                                                                                                                                                                        • Likely interest in products to support immune system
                                                                                                                                                                          • Flavoured milk continues to explore indulgence to appeal to younger consumers
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: New flavoured milk launches in the UK, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                          • Adspend stands at £7.4 million
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on milk, milk drinks and cream, by media type, 2016-20
                                                                                                                                                                          • Arla leads spend by some margin 
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on milk, milk drinks and cream, by advertiser, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                          • Cravendale launches its “It’s Not Milk” ad 
                                                                                                                                                                            • Bob seeks to reassure drinkers it “tastes like green milk” 
                                                                                                                                                                              • Yazoo continues to promote “Goodness”
                                                                                                                                                                                • Oatly launches first marketing campaign outside of London in 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 49: Oatly’s out-of-home campaign in London, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                • AHDB and Dairy UK continue “Scrumptious” campaign
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Outdoor dairy campaign from AHDB and Dairy UK, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Milk usage remains high at 94% among UK adults
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Two in five are prepared to pay more than £1.20 for a four-pint bottle of milk
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sustainability piques consumer interest
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Half of milk/cream users and buyers prefer cartons to plastic bottles
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Two in five people see milk production as damaging to the environment
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Natural nutrients in milk chine with three in five
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Health is important for one in three flavoured milk buyers
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Usage of Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Milk usage remains high at 94% among UK adults
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Usage of milk, dairy drinks and non-dairy alternatives, by type, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Younger age groups show higher usage of plant-based milk than older
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Younger consumers view plant-based milk as tasty and healthy
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Non-chilled milk saw an uplift early in the COVID-19 outbreak
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Semi-skimmed milk appeals to older consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Usage of milk, dairy drinks and non-dairy alternatives, by variety, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Flavoured milk category shows promise
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Younger consumers are key users in the cream category
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Usage of cream, by type, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • How Much Consumers are Prepared to Pay for Milk

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Retail milk pricing held steady in 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Two in five users are prepared to pay more
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: How much consumers are prepared to pay for standard white cow’s milk, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Interest in New Product Concepts in Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sustainability piques consumer interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Half of category buyers keen on milk promoting sustainable farming practices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Interest in new product concepts, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • International examples offer inspiration for calling out sustainable aspects
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: International examples of cow’s milk highlighting sustainability, 2019/20
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Utilise packaging to educate and inform about environmental impact
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Refill concepts warrant attention
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Smaller operators explore milk refills
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Refills appeal less in milk than food generally
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Plant-based milk users show interest in milk designed for specific uses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Behaviours Relating to Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Half of milk/cream users and buyers prefer cartons to plastic bottles
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cartons appeal to younger consumers and organic milk users
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Behaviours relating to dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Dairy and non-dairy blends appeal to a large minority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes towards Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Two in five people see milk production as damaging to the environment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Attitudes towards dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • The war on plastic leads to consumers cutting back on plastic packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Arla exposes the challenges with glass packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Non-chilled milk usage links to environmental concerns
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Milk consumption after exercise appeals to younger consumers and men
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Natural nutrients in milk appeal to older consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Fortification appeals to parents
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: New product launches in the UK dairy and non-dairy drinks, and milk category, by functional category claims, 2016-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Choice Factors for Flavoured Milk

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Dairy and Non-Dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream: Inc Impact of COVID-19 – UK – May 2020 – Market ShareHealth is important for one in three flavoured milk users
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Choice factors for flavoured milk, February 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sugar in flavoured milk continues to warrant attention
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: New product launches in the UK flavoured milk category, by low/reduced sugar, no-added-sugar and sugar-free claims, 2016-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Flavour innovation in the form of blends could appeal to younger flavoured milk users
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: New product launches in the UK dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream category, top 20 claims (sorted by 2019), 2017-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: New product launches in the UK dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream category, by functional claims (sorted by 2019), 2017-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: New product launches in the UK dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream category, by cost per type, January 2019-March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: New product launches in the UK non-dairy drinks category, average cost per type, January 2019-March 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: New product launches in the UK plant-based milk category, by top 15 claims, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on milk, milk drinks and cream, by category, 2019 and 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on milk, milk drinks and cream, by category, 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Behaviours Relating to Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 69: Chilled white milk launches in the UK, by packaging type, 2017-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Attitudes towards Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Packaging used for milk launches in the UK, April 2019-March 2020

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