UK Beer Market Analysis
Mintel’s consumer research finds that UK consumers will accept a beer as ‘authentic’ regardless of its background, but brands must be seen to be honest on this topic. Almost three-quarters of category drinkers/buyers say that an authentic recipe is more important for beer than the country it is made in. Meanwhile, over a third of buyers would be put off a beer that was made in a different country than it presented in its advertising.
Alcohol moderation has grown since 2022 and is set to gain further momentum over 2025-29. Continued innovation in low-/no-alcohol variants is therefore needed by brands to maintain category volume sales. However, they first need to address certain barriers to greater uptake, such as concerns over their price and sugar content. Flavour innovation remains relevant as a means for brands to maintain consumer engagement, especially among younger adults.
Key Topics Analysed in the Report
- The impact of inflation on value and volume sales of beer in the on- and off-trade
- The importance of particular factors for beer purchase, including familiar brands and novel flavours
- Opportunities for flavour innovation in beer
- Barriers to drinking low-/no-alcohol beer, including perceptions as overpriced and concerns over their sugar content
- Consumer views on the importance of provenance in defining a beer as ‘authentic’.
Report Scope
This Report looks at the UKÂ market for beer sold in both the on-trade, ie out-of-home outlets such as pubs, restaurants and clubs where the drink is consumed on the premises, and the off-trade market, eg supermarkets, online, off-licences and convenience stores.
- Lager can broadly be described as a light/amber, clear, carbonated beer brewed with pale-kilned malts which, after fermentation, is filtered, pasteurised and conditioned before being packaged in cans, bottles or kegs for sale. Spirit- and fruit-flavoured beers are also included within lager in this Report.
- Ale refers to top-fermented beers including bitter and mild, pale, export and brown ales, barley wine and strong ales, as well as Indian and American pale ales, among others. These beers are so-called because the yeast floats to the surface during fermentation, as opposed to lagers, which are bottom-fermented. Barley wine is simply a beer with a very high ABV (alcohol by volume). Cask ales are pulled by hand pump and oxidised in an aerobic environment once opened, which demands quick throughput to maintain optimum condition and means they are served from a cask without additional carbon dioxide or nitrogen pressure. Cask ales go through a process of ‘secondary fermentation’ while being stored in pubs, meaning that each barrel often has a unique taste. They are sometimes referred to by consumers and/or the trade as ‘real ale’. However, the definition of real ale also includes ales which are bottle conditioned. Alcoholic ginger beer and bitter are also included within ales in this report.
- Stout is a derivative of porter, originally an 18th century brown mild ale. Stout is a black, dense beer, which is usually top-fermented, and made with dark roasted barley and an abundance of hops, which provide the characteristic flavour. Porter – a dark style of beer made from brown malt – is included within the definition of stout.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Alice Baker. Alice analyses and writes on the UK Food & Drink sector, having joined Mintel in January 2016. She has previously worked for the International Meat Trade Association and in local government. She holds a BA in History and an MA in History of Political Thought from University College London.
Further activity in low-/no-alcohol beer is vital given increased alcohol moderation, but companies will need to address certain barriers to greater uptake.
Alice Baker
Food and Drink Analyst
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Opportunities for the beer market
- Improve low-/no-alcohol beers’ image to support category volume sales
- Innovate with flavours to keep consumers engaged, even in challenging economic circumstances
- Transparency of origins is crucial for beer
- Market dynamics and outlook
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- Rising prices drive value sales growth in the on-trade as volumes decline
- Graph 1: value sales of beer, by on and off-trade, 2022-24
- Lager continues to dominate the retail beer category but sees volume sales decline in 2024
- Graph 2: retail value sales of beer, by segment, 2022-24
- Low-/lower-/no-alcohol and flavoured variants allow some beer brands to buck the negative trend in retail in 2023/24
- Graph 3: retail volume sales of beer, by brand, 2022-24
- Inflation in beer runs ahead of all-items inflation in 2024; further price rises are anticipated for 2025
- Graph 4: RPI inflation for beer and all items, 2020-24
- What consumers want and why
- Six in ten adults drink beer; lager leads on usage
- Graph 5: frequency of drinking beer, 2024
- Many shoppers favour familiar brands; under-35s are particularly drawn to novel flavours
- Graph 6: importance of selected attributes when buying beer, 2024
- Companies have various avenues to explore for flavour innovation
- Graph 7: most appealing flavours for beer, 2024
- Urgent need to improve the image of lower and low-/no-alcohol beers
- Graph 8: behaviours relating to beer, 2024
- Innovation and marketing
- Launch activity in lower-/low- and no-alcohol, fruit flavoured and ‘hazy’ beers continues in 2024
- Examples of new product launches in the beer category in 2024
- Advertising spend on beer falls in 2023
- Graph 9: total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising on beer, by top three advertisers, 2022-24
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MARKET DYNAMICS
- Market size
- Value and volume sales of beer decline over 2019-24
- Graph 10: total volume sales of beer, 2019-24
- Graph 11: total value sales of beer, 2019-24
- Pressure on household incomes and shift away from on-trade erode value and volume sales for beer in 2019-24
- Market forecast
- Value sales growth to slow over 2024-29
- Continued cautious consumer spending to hinder volume sales in the short term, and ageing population in the long term
- Further, though slower, inflation and slight volume sales decline expected for 2024-29
- Graph 12: forecast for growth in total value and volume sales of beer, 2024-29
- Channels to market
- On-trade dominates value sales of beer, but not volumes
- Graph 13: volume sales of beer, by on- and off-trade, 2022-24
- Graph 14: value sales of beer, by on and off-trade, 2022-24
- Inflation drives value sales growth in the on-trade, despite falling volumes
- Graph 15: estimated on-trade beer value and volume sales growth/decline, 2024
- Retail market segmentation
- Lager continues to dominate retail beer sales
- Graph 16: retail value sales of beer, by segment, 2022-24
- Stout bucks the negative trend in retail beer sales in 2024
- Market share
- Inflation drives Stella Artois’ retail value sales growth in 2024
- Graph 17: retail value sales of lager, by top five brands and own-label, 2021/22-2023/24
- Mid-market lager brands lose sales in 2024 as shoppers trade up and down
- Graph 18: retail value and volume sales growth/decline for the top five lager brands and own-label, 2023/24*
- Lower- and no-alcohol variants drive Corona’s retail volume sales growth in 2024
- Cruzcampo achieves strong sales growth in its first 13 months in UK retail
- Guinness leads the ale/stout/bitter category, but faces increased competition
- Graph 19: retail value sales of ale/stout/bitter, by top five brands and own-label, 2021/22-2023/24
- No-alcohol variant drives Guinness’ sales growth in 2024; BrewDog gains ground
- Hobgoblin’s lower-ABV variant propels its retail sales growth in 2024
- Market drivers
- Weaker financial wellbeing than in 2021 drives down beer volume sales in 2023-24
- Graph 20: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-24
- Consumer confidence is important for beer
- Graph 21: the financial confidence index, 2016-24
- Beer inflation slows in 2024 but remains ahead of all-items inflation
- Graph 22: RPI inflation for beer and all items, 2020-24
- Further rises in beer prices are on the cards for 2025
- Pub closures continue in 2023-24
- Brewery numbers decline in 2023-24
- Ageing UK population will hinder category volume sales
- Graph 23: population, by age, 2004-64
- Increased alcohol moderation impedes category sales in 2023-24
- Graph 24: alcohol reduction and non-usage*, 2022-24
- Growing alcohol moderation offers opportunities for low-/no-alcohol beers, but these have certain barriers to overcome
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WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Usage of beer
- Six in ten adults drink beer, but most do so only occasionally
- Graph 25: frequency of drinking beer, 2024
- Under-35s and the financially better off are the core beer drinkers
- Graph 26: beer drinking once a week or more, by age and financial situation, 2024
- Lager leads on usage by some distance
- Graph 27: usage of beer, by type, by age group, 2024
- A third drink low-/no-alcohol beer, and a quarter drink craft
- Graph 28: usage of beer, by variety, 2024
- Under-35s are the key users of low-/no-alcohol beer
- Graph 29: usage of low-/no-alcohol beer (net), by age group, 2024
- No significant difference in usage of craft beer by people’s age or financial situation
- Graph 30: usage of craft beer, by age and financial situation, 2024
- Importance of selected attributes when buying beer
- Familiar brands have the advantage when people buy beer
- Graph 31: importance of selected attributes when buying beer, 2024
- Shoppers gravitate towards familiar brands, but promotions undermine loyalty
- Promotions shake consumer loyalties
- Supermarket loyalty schemes offer targeted promotions
- Use flavoured variants to keep consumers engaged
- Many beer drinkers find new drinks in the on-trade
- Most appealing flavours for beer
- Explore different flavours to keep consumers engaged
- Beer brands have various avenues to explore for flavour innovation
- Graph 32: most appealing flavours for beer, 2024
- Fruit flavours will engage younger adults
- Graph 33: most appealing flavours for beer, by age group, 2024
- Citrus and fruit flavours lead for keeping core users engaged
- Graph 34: most appealing flavours for beer, by frequency of drinking beer (nets), 2024
- .Flavour innovation proves to support sales even in a challenging economy
- Flavoured variants can help address doubts over low-/no-alcohol beer’s taste
- Graph 35: preferred flavours for beer, by low-/no-alcohol beer drinkers, 2024
- Beer and citrus fruits have long-standing associations
- Blood orange has good growth potential
- International examples offer inspiration
- Highlight beer’s flavour notes at POS as well as on labels
- Behaviours relating to beer
- Low-/no-alcohol beers have various barriers to overcome
- Graph 36: behaviours relating to beer, 2024
- Improve low-/no-alcohol beers’ image to support category volume sales
- Need to improve the image of low-/no-alcohol beers
- Opportunity for expansion in own-label low-/no-alcohol beer
- Include low-/no-alcohol beers in dine-in deals to tap shoppers’ love of a bargain
- Graph 37: interest in buying beer as part of a bundle deal with food, by age group, 2023
- Sugar concerns are a deterrent for low-/no-alcohol beers
- Make nutritional information for low-/no-alcohol beers more prominent on-pack…
- …including stating sugar content
- Call out added-value attributes to boost low-/no-alcohol beer’s quality image
- Graph 38: attributes deemed worth paying more for in beer, 2023
- Raise consumer awareness of low- and mid-strength beer’s long heritage
- Beer brands offer background details to strengthen low-/no-alcohol variants’ quality image
- Beer brands must be transparent about their origins
- Consumers are divided on the interplay of provenance and authenticity
- Under-35s are the most likely to be put off by a brand that is not clear about its origins
- Graph 39: those who would be put off buying a beer brand that was made in a different country than it presented in its marketing, by age group, 2024
- Transparency about origins should help beer brands avoid a backlash
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INNOVATION AND MARKETING TRENDS
- Launch activity and innovation
- Low-/lower- and no-alcohol launches continue
- Citrus and other fruit flavours remain a key flavour trend in 2024
- Hazy beers trend continues
- ‘Dark’ beers offer aesthetic appeal
- Trend of using ‘surplus’ ingredients continues
- Leading and niche brands explore premixed versions of traditional beer-based mixed drinks
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Advertising spend on beer falls in 2023
- Graph 40: total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising on beer, by top 3 advertisers, 2022-24
- Beer brands continue to link with football
- Madrà and Cruzcampo focus on aspirational Spanish lifestyles
- Beer brands present themselves as more authentic than rivals
- Heineken emphasises its “unique taste” and treat aspects
- Heineken : “The First Ahhh!”
- Stella Artois recruits David Beckham and celebrates time spent with family and friends…
- …and makes a tongue-in-cheek nod to its glasses going missing
- Stella Artois: “Missing Chalices”
- Beer brands continue their efforts to engage consumers through branded merchandise
- BrewDog’s marketing for Black Heart looks to put the heat on Guinness
- Greene King seeks to entice people to visit pubs on rainy days
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APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Appendix: channels to market
- Appendix: retail market segmentation
- Appendix: lager value sales – brands (1-10)
- Appendix: lager value sales – brands (11-20) and own-label
- Appendix: lager volume sales – brands (1-10)
- Appendix: lager volume sales – brands (11-20) and own-label
- Appendix: lager value sales – brand owners
- Appendix: lager volume sales – brand owners
- Appendix: ale/stout/bitter value sales – brands
- Appendix: ale/stout/bitter volume sales – brands
- Appendix: ale/stout/bitter value sales – brand owners
- Appendix: ale/stout/bitter volume sales – brands
- Market forecast data and methodology
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (value)
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (volume)
- Forecast methodology
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition (1)
- Market definition (2)
- Abbreviations and terms
- Consumer research methodology
- Infegy Atlas – coverage
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
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