2022
9
UK Bread Market Report 2022
2022-11-17T03:10:02+00:00
OX1103445
2195
157582
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Report
en_GB
“Value sales growth in bread in 2022 is being driven by high inflation, with volumes hit by reduced frequency of eating bread. Developing more choice of flavours in bread could…

UK Bread Market Report 2022

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Description

The UK Bread Market Report identifies consumers’ bread consumption, new launch activity and the impact of the cost of living crisis on the bread industry. This report covers the UK bread market size, market forecast, market segmentation and UK bakery trends.   

 

Bread Industry’s Current Landscape

Value sales growth for the bread industry will be driven by inflation, with a decline in volume sales. The latter results from the bread industry losing the benefits of COVID-19 restrictions and the work-from-home mandate that supported consumers making lunch at home. UK bread brands will be vulnerable to people switching to own-label to save money during the cost-of-living crisis.

However, the bread industry will benefit somewhat during the cost of living crisis since bread is considered as a cheap and filling meal component compared to other food options.

 

Bakery Industry Statistics UK and Bakery Trends

2023 will likely see a further small decline in volume sales for UK bread brands, in line with the historical long-term decline in bread consumption amid competition from other foods for breakfast and lunch.

Meanwhile, incorporating vegetables or pulses into bread dough is an untapped opportunity, appealing to more than four in ten eaters and buyers of bread. This could offer a way of engaging and retaining consumers who don’t consider bread as healthy.

  • Bread market size: retail value sales of bread are forecast to increase by 12% between 2022 and 2027 to reach £4.29 billion in 2027
  • Bread market share: The top three brands, Warburtons, Hovis and Kingsmill, accounted for 50% of prepacked bread value sales in 2021/22.
  • 56% of consumers agree that they would like a wider choice of bread with different flavours.
  • 61% of Brits agree that own-label bread tastes just as good as branded bread.

 

Future Bakery Trends

There is growing consumer interest in trying new flavours, something which the bread industry intends to capitalise on by developing more choices of flavours in bread to help with plateauing volume sales.

As real incomes return to growth, premium UK bread brands will be in a good position to do well, with a refocus on quality over quantity. At the same time, having more disposable money is likely to drive consumers to switch to bread alternatives that are lower in carbohydrates or even to shop-bought breakfasts and lunch out of the home.

To discover more about the UK Bread Market Report 2022, read our UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report 2022, or take a look at our Bakery Market Research Reports.

 

Quickly Understand

  • Performance of the bread industry following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, and challenges and opportunities arising from the rising cost of living.
  • Frequency of eating bread and reasons for reducing the amount of bread bought and consumed.
  • How bread is eaten and ways to support the eating of bread at different mealtimes.
  • New launch activity in the bread industry, including premium launches, nutrition and flavour innovation.
  • Usage of different UK bread brands and attitudes towards them.
  • Explores the bread market share, bread market size and bakery statistics UK.

 

Covered in this Report

Products: White, brown, wholemeal and speciality bread.
UK bread brands: 
Kingsmill, Warburtons, Hovis, Roberts Bakery, Brace’s Bakery, Jackson’s Baker, Genius Foods, Schär, New York Bakery, Mission, The Clay Oven Bakery, Deli Kitchen, Old El Paso, Pizza Express, Patak’s, Sharwoods, M&S, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Aldi, Tesco, Cathedral City, Al’Fez, BFree, Burgen, Wicked Kitchen, Waitrose.

 

Expert Analysis from a Specialist in the Bread Industry

This report, written by Richard Caines, a leading analyst in the food and drink sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the bread industry and add expert context to the numbers.

Value sales growth in the bread industry in 2022 is being driven by high inflation, with volumes hit by reduced frequency of eating bread. Developing more choice of flavours in bread could help flagging volume sales, and while brands will be vulnerable to people switching to own-label to save money during the cost-of-living crisis, there is still an opportunity for premium bread to appeal thanks to its image as an affordable treat.”

Richard Caines
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

 

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Products covered in this Report
  2. Executive Summary

    • The five-year outlook for bread
      • Figure 1: Outlook for bread, 2022-27
    • The market
    • 2022 value growth driven by inflation
      • Figure 2: Market size and forecast for UK retail value sales of bread, 2017-27
    • Falling or static volume sales of prepacked bread will hold back growth
    • Cost-of-living crisis expected to continue throughout 2023
    • Ability to compete at breakfast and lunch key to bread’s fortunes
    • Greater focus on health both a threat and an opportunity for bread
    • Companies and brands
    • Own-label makes gains in prepacked bread
      • Figure 3: Leading brands in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value, 2019/20-2021/22
    • Warburtons strengthens position in speciality bread and rolls
    • More premium launch activity being seen in 2022
    • Flavoured bread launches a big feature of NPD
    • Better-for-you bread sees more launch activity
    • Warburtons the most trusted brand in bread
    • The consumer
    • Bread purchased almost universally; seven in 10 bought sliced loaves
    • Older people most likely to buy loaves of bread
    • Frequency of eating bread declines
      • Figure 4: Frequency of eating packaged and other types of bread in the past month, 2021 and 2022
    • Sandwiches and toast the biggest uses for bread
      • Figure 5: How bread was eaten in the last month, 2022
    • Bread keeping for a long time most important choice factor
      • Figure 6: Factors most influencing choice of bread, 2022
    • Strong interest in wider choice in bread market
      • Figure 7: Behaviours related to eating and buying bread, 2022
    • Cost-of-living crisis means challenges and opportunities
      • Figure 8: Attitudes towards bread, 2022
  3. Issues and Insights

    • Cost-of-living crisis means challenges and opportunities
    • Branded bread vulnerable to own-label competition
    • Premium bread can still do well
    • Emphasising the value of bread
    • More choice of bread products will help flagging sales
    • More breads with different flavours highly warranted
    • Substituting some wheat flour with other flours an opportunity
    • Breads with vegetables/pulses in the dough interest two in five
    • Breakfast, lunch and dinner important in supporting bread sales
    • Competition from other breakfast and lunch options poses a threat
    • Need to make sandwiches and toast more appealing to Gen Z
    • Room to grow sales of bread as a meal accompaniment
  4. Market Size and Performance

    • Longer-term decline in volume sales of bread resumes
    • Increase in 2022 value sales driven by inflation
      • Figure 9: Retail market size for bread, 2017-22
  5. Market Forecast

    • The five-year outlook for bread
      • Figure 10: Outlook for bread, 2022-27
    • Growth in bread sales will only be driven by higher average prices
      • Figure 11: Market size and forecast for UK retail value sales of bread, 2017-27
      • Figure 12: Market size and forecast for UK retail volume sales of bread, 2017-27
    • Falling or static volume sales of prepacked bread will hold back growth
    • Cost-of-living crisis will make bread’s affordable image appealing
    • Ability to compete at breakfast and lunch key to bread’s fortunes
    • Greater focus on health both a threat and an opportunity for bread
    • Learnings from the last income squeeze
      • Figure 13: UK retail value and volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-15
    • Forecast methodology
  6. Market Segmentation

    • Sales of prepacked bread slip back following COVID-19 boost
      • Figure 14: UK retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2019-22
    • White bread showing the strongest growth in 2022
      • Figure 15: UK retail value sales of prepacked bread, by type, 2019-22
    • Speciality bread and rolls not keeping pace with inflation
      • Figure 16: UK retail value sales of speciality bread and rolls, by type, 2019-22
  7. Market Drivers

    • HFSS restrictions to have limited impact on bread
    • Store location restrictions come into place in 2022
    • New rules on the advertising of HFSS food and drink delayed to 2024
    • Strong consumer interest in healthy eating
    • COVID-19 increases spotlight on health
    • Changing eating habits will impact on bread sales
    • Breakfast a big driver of bread sales, but faces competition
      • Figure 17: What people eat for breakfast at home and out of home, 2022
    • Lunch and snacking choices also impact on demand for bread
      • Figure 18: Types of food eaten for lunch at home on an everyday occasion in the last month, 2022
    • Population growth important for bread sales
      • Figure 19: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2016-26
    • Inflation is the key concern for consumers, brands and the economy
    • Consumer Prices Index rises to 10%
    • Rising grain and energy prices propel rapid inflation in bread…
      • Figure 20: Consumer price inflation for bread and all food, September 2021-September 2022
    • …and despite government support, energy prices are still a major concern
    • Rising interest rates mean that the pressure will move up to middle- and higher-income households
    • High inflation and rising interest rates will weigh down the post-COVID recovery
    • Consumer spending power will be curbed
    • Consumers’ financial wellbeing has fallen from the highs of 2021…
      • Figure 21: Household financial wellbeing index, 2016-22
    • …and most people are feeling the effects of price rises
    • Bread’s affordable and comfort food image should appeal
    • Concerns about wasting food hold back volume growth in bread
  8. Market Share

    • Own-label makes gains in prepacked bread
      • Figure 22: Leading brands in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value and volume, 2019/20-2021/22
    • Warburtons strengthens position in speciality bread and rolls
      • Figure 23: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2019/20-2021/22
  9. Launch Activity and Innovation

    • More premium launch activity being seen in 2022
      • Figure 24: Proportion of new launches in bread and bread products that are positioned as premium, 2017-22
    • Sourdough still on-trend and used to emphasise premium
    • Brioche buns seeing more new launches
      • Figure 25: Examples of premium launches in brioche buns and sourdough, 2021/22
    • Flatbreads and sharing breads attract premium activity
      • Figure 26: Examples of premium launches in flatbreads and sharing breads, 2021/22
      • Figure 27: Examples of new launches of premium breads from brands, 2022
    • Flavoured bread launches a big feature of NPD
    • Brands partner for flavoured breads
      • Figure 28: Examples of brand tie-up flavour innovation in bread and bread products in the UK, 2022
    • Middle Eastern cuisine’s influence extends to bread
      • Figure 29: Examples of new launches of Middle Eastern-inspired flatbreads, 2022
    • Sainsbury’s launches seasonal flatbreads
      • Figure 30: Examples of seasonal bread launches from Sainsbury’s, 2022
    • Better-for-you bread sees more launch activity
      • Figure 31: Proportion of new launches in bread and bread products making positive health-related and wholegrain claims, 2017-22
    • Warburtons adds trio of healthier products
      • Figure 32: Examples of new bread launches with a mixture of seeds and grains from Warburtons, 2022
    • Roberts and Burgen launch breads with added benefits
      • Figure 33: Other examples of new bread launches with a healthier positioning, 2021/22
    • Bread brands work on improving impact on environment
    • Plastic reduction being targeted
      • Figure 34: Examples of new bread launches highlighting recyclable and paper packaging, 2022
    • Retailers’ plant-based ranges feature bread
      • Figure 35: Examples of vegan launches under retailers’ plant-based ranges, 2022
  10. Advertising and Marketing Activity

    • Big reduction in TV advertising in 2022
      • Figure 36: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread and bread products, 2018-22
    • New York Bakery only big advertiser so far in 2022
      • Figure 37: Above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread and bread products, by leading advertisers, 2018-22
    • Bread brands run charitable campaigns
    • Kingsmill Kindness campaign supports NHS workers
    • New York Bakery supports Magic Breakfast
    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
  11. Brand Research

    • Brand map
      • Figure 38: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, 2022
    • Key brand metrics
      • Figure 39: Key metrics for selected brands, 2022
    • Brand attitudes: Warburtons stands out on image of consistently high quality
      • Figure 40: Attitudes, by brand, 2022
    • Brand personality: New York Bakery seen the most widely as a fun brand
      • Figure 41: Brand personality – macro image, 2022
    • Hovis stands out as having the most traditional image
      • Figure 42: Brand personality – micro image, 2022
  12. Purchasing of Bread

    • Bread purchased almost universally; seven in 10 bought sliced loaves
      • Figure 43: Types of bread and bread products bought in the last month, 2019-22
    • Older people most likely to buy loaves of bread
  13. Frequency of Eating Bread

    • Frequency of eating bread declines
      • Figure 44: Frequency of eating packaged and other types of bread in the past month, 2021 and 2022
  14. How Bread Is Eaten

    • Sandwiches and toast the biggest uses for bread
      • Figure 45: How bread was eaten in the last month, 2022
    • Room to grow sales of bread as a meal accompaniment
  15. Factors Most Influencing Choice

    • Bread keeping for a long time most important choice factor
      • Figure 46: Factors most influencing choice of bread, 2022
    • Being wholegrain and high fibre the biggest healthy influences
  16. Behaviours Related to Eating and Buying Bread

    • Strong interest in wider choice in bread market
    • More breads with different flavours highly warranted
      • Figure 47: Behaviours related to eating and buying bread, 2022
    • Substituting some wheat flour with other flours an opportunity
    • Breads with vegetables/pulses in the dough interest two in five
      • Figure 48: Examples of European launches of bread incorporating pulses/vegetables in the dough, 2022
  17. Attitudes towards Bread

    • Cost-of-living crisis means challenges and opportunities
    • Branded bread vulnerable to own-label competition
      • Figure 49: Attitudes towards bread, 2022
    • Premium bread can still do well
      • Figure 50: Examples of premium own-label bread launches in the UK, 2022
    • Emphasising the value of bread
  18. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • Consumer research methodology
  19. Appendix – Forecast Methodology

    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
      • Figure 51: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK value sales of bread, 2022-27
      • Figure 52: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK volume sales of bread, 2022-27
    • Market drivers and assumptions
    • Forecast methodology
  20. Appendix – Market Share

      • Figure 53: Leading manufacturers in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value and volume, 2019/20-2021/22
      • Figure 54: Leading manufacturers in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2019/20-2021/22
  21. Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

      • Figure 55: New launches in bread and bread products, by branded vs. private label, 2017-22
      • Figure 56: New launches in bread and bread products, by claim, 2017-22
      • Figure 57: New launches featuring the word sourdough, 2017-22
      • Figure 58: New launches featuring seeds as an ingredient, 2017-22

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This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

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