Savvy behaviours will endure in the short term. This will continue to support products seen as affordable treats and those replacing foodservice meals. However, improving confidence will see switching to convenience products and foodservice take its toll on the category.Â
UK Bread Market Landscape
The UK bread market has enjoyed a return to volume growth in 2024. As savvy spending habits endure in the short term, bread and bread products enjoying a comfort food or affordable treat image will continue to appeal. However, rising real incomes will see the market face intensifying competition from convenience products and foodservice, with volumes predicted to return to their long-term downward trajectory.
Improving financial resilience and incomes are expected to see health become more front of mind for consumers. This stands to put the leading prepacked bread segment and white bread in particular under pressure, two in five people already thinking it should only be eaten as an occasional treat. Promisingly, however, there is strong acceptance of fortified white bread, particularly among the key younger users, suggesting potential for better-for-you NPD to maintain usage.
Limited editions hold untapped potential in bread and bread products. While two in five people are interested in these, limited edition and seasonal products play a modest role in the category. The success of these in other household staple categories like cooking sauces and that of Lidl’s ISB ‘Special Guests’ range lends credence to the potential of this concept in the market.
UK Bread Market Report – What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analysed in the Report
- Types of bread and bread products bought, usage frequency and key demographics.
- Key trends in recent launch activity and future product development opportunities.
- Main usage occasions for selected bread and bread product types.
- Consumer behaviours related to bread, including the interest in limited edition products
- Consumer attitudes towards bread, including acceptance of fortification.
Report Scope
For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions: The market size includes white, brown and wholemeal loaves, including with various additions, which may be sliced or unsliced, wrapped or unwrapped, as well as speciality bread.
For the purposes of this Report, the specialty bread market is taken to include: bagels, baguettes, pittas, wraps, sandwich thins, naan breads, other Indian breads including chapattis and garlic bread (ambient and chilled).
Sweet baked goods are excluded from this Report and can be found under Mintel’s UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Report.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
Kiti manages Mintel’s UK food and drink research team, which produces some 50 reports annually spanning across the key UK food and drink industries as well as exploring topical consumer trends. She joined Mintel as a European Retail Analyst, before specialising in the food sector and taking responsibility for the team in 2011.
The UK bread market’s return to volume growth in 2024 will be short-lived. Rising confidence will fuel competition and put bread’s health credentials under keener scrutiny.
Kiti Soininen
Head of UK Food and Drink Research
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Executive Summary
- Opportunities for the bread and bread products market
- Ensure relevance to quick breakfast and lunch
- Limited editions hold untapped potential
- Tap core users’ openness to fortification
- Market dynamics and outlook
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- Inflation will fuel value growth as volume sales fall over 2024-29
- Prepacked bread leads, in-store bakeries gain
- Graph 1: retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2022-24
- Own-label’s share grows to 31% in prepacked bread
- Graph 2: leading brands’ sales in the prepacked bread retail market, by value, 2021/22-23/24
- Own-label extends lead in speciality bread and rolls
- Graph 3: leading brands in the UK specialty bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2021/22-23/24
- Health-focus bring opportunities and threats
- What consumers want and why
- Almost everyone buys bread
- Graph 4: types of bread and bread products bought in the last month, 2024
- One in three eat sliced bread daily
- Graph 5: frequency of eating selected types of bread and bread products, 2024
- Quick meals are top occasions for packaged square loaves
- Graph 6: occasions for eating selected types of bread and bread products, 2024
- Limited editions hold untapped potential
- Graph 7: behaviours related to bread and bread products, 2024
- Shelflife and nutrition make processing acceptable for many
- Graph 8: attitudes towards bread and bread products, 2024
- Innovation and marketing
- Health and fun continue to attract NPD…
- …across protein, functional and limited editions
- Adspend rebounded in 2023, and has surged in 2024
- Graph 9: total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising on bread, by leading advertiser, 2020-24
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Market Dynamics
- Market size
- Bread volumes close in on 2019 levels…
- Graph 10: retail value and volume sales of bread and bread products, 2019-24
- …following a volatile five years
- Market forecast
- Inflation will fuel value growth…
- …as volume sales return to decline
- Intensifying competition ahead
- Volumes fall further, price rises maintain value growth
- Market segmentation
- Prepacked bread leads, in-store bakeries gain
- Graph 11: retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2022-24
- Strong treat image supports ISBs
- Continued pressures in 2023 hit prepacked bread volumes
- Graph 12: retail value sales of prepacked bread, by type, 2022-24
- White bread remains the star performer in prepacked bread
- Wraps and specialty bread continue to outperform in 2024…
- Graph 13: retail value sales of specialty bread and rolls, by type, 2022-24
- …supported by savvy treat mindset
- Market share
- Own-label’s share grows to 31% in prepacked bread
- Graph 14: leading brands’ sales in the prepacked bread retail market, by value, 2021/22-23/24
- Warburtons retains lead, Jason’s Sourdough leaps forward
- Own-label extends lead in speciality bread and rolls
- Graph 15: leading brands in the UK specialty bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2021/22-23/24
- Warburtons retains top position in speciality bread and rolls
- New York Bakery Co and Deli Kitchen gain ground
- Market drivers
- Real wage growth continues, many consumers are still catching up
- Graph 16: CPI inflation rate and total pay growth rate, 2021-24
- One in four see their finances as ‘healthy’
- Graph 17: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-24
- Consumer confidence for the year ahead weakens in 2024
- Graph 18: the financial confidence index, 2016-24
- Highly processed foods come under scrutiny…
- …with calls for more research
- Half the nation see most supermarket bread as UPFs
- Fortification of non-wholemeal flour with folic acid required from end of 2026
- Strong consumer interest in healthy eating
- Graph 19: how often people try to eat healthily, 2018-24
- Spotlight on blood sugar puts pressure on white bread
- Graph 20: Google searches for blood sugar, 2022-24
- Interest in sustainability to gain ground as income pressures ease
- Category inflation eases in 2023
- Graph 21: all food and bread CPI and bread and sweet baked goods PPI, 2019-24
- Decline in under-35s population poses headwinds
- Graph 22: trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2018-28
- Bread-related terminology comes under the spotlight
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What Consumers Want and Why
- Bread and bread product buying
- Almost everyone buys bread
- Graph 23: types of bread and bread products bought in the last month, 2024
- Packaged sliced square loaf faces intense competition from other types
- White bread remains nation’s favourite
- Graph 24: varieties of bread and bread products bought in the last month, 2024
- Older groups are more open to the taste of high-fibre foods
- Graph 25: bread varieties eaten, by age, 2024
- Blood glucose concerns link with lower use of white bread
- Sourdough enjoys a limited health halo
- 50/50 bread attracts a quarter of adults
- Bread and bread product usage
- Bread enjoys near-universal usage
- One in three eat sliced bread daily
- Graph 26: frequency of eating selected types of bread and bread products, 2024
- Packaged sliced bread leads, but faces stiff competition
- Under-35s are core users of bread
- Graph 27: usage at least once a day, by type of bread, by age, 2024
- The presence of children drives bread usage
- Graph 28: bread types eaten at least once a day, by age and presence of children, 2024
- Further pressure ahead for packaged sliced bread
- Usage occasions
- Quick meals are top occasions for packaged square loaves
- Graph 29: occasions for eating selected types of bread and bread products, 2024
- Quick breakfasts lead for packaged sliced bread use
- Relevance to quick breakfast is crucial for packaged sliced brands
- Belvita offers cues on sustained energy proposition
- Bread struggles on leisurely breakfast occasions…
- …driving the relevance of expansion into other products
- Two in five choose packaged bread for quick main meal
- Fibre and fortification can boost lunch appeal
- Behaviours related to bread and bread products
- Limited editions hold untapped potential
- Graph 30: behaviours related to bread and bread products, 2024
- Two in five report interest in limited editions
- Half of under-45s drawn to limited-edition breads
- Limited editions and seasonal variants are rare in bread
- Cooking sauces exemplify limited editions’ potential
- International examples point to limited-edition opportunities
- ISBs offer a powerful vehicle for tapping limited-edition interest
- Attitudes towards bread and bread products
- Shelflife and nutrition make processing acceptable for many
- Graph 31: attitudes towards bread and bread products, 2024
- Importance of shelflife and nutrition offer means to address UPF concerns
- Combat UPF concerns with information
- Under-35s are more open to fortification and processing
- Graph 32: attitudes to added nutrients and processing to extend shellflife of bread, by age and presence of children, 2024
- Strong potential for sliced bread to explain ingredients
- Itsu offers cues for explaining less familiar ingredients
- Strong momentum of fortified products points to potential for the same in bread
- Opportunities beyond protein…
- …and beyond the family market
- Scope to supercharge Superloaf
- Celebrate a short shelflife
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Innovation And Marketing Trends
- Launch activity and innovation
- ‘Plus’ claims feature on one in five launches
- Graph 33: share of bread launches with selected nutritional claims. 2020-24
- Fibre, wholegrain and protein claims rise in 2024
- High-protein NPD in 2024 spans brands and own-label
- More launches reference seeds
- Graph 34: share of bread and bread product launches referencing seeds as a flavour component, 2020-24
- New seeded launches
- Superloaf’s functional bread gains distribution
- Brands must look beyond recycling to stand out on sustainability
- Graph 35: share of bread launches with selected environmentally-friendly claims. 2020-24
- Paper packaging gains in ISBs
- Regenerative farming brand Wildfarmed launches its first bread range…
- …with sustainably sourced flour resonating widely
- New York Bakery continues to explore sweet flavours in limited editions
- Big brands look to festive packaging, while own-labels looked to themed products for seasonal occasions
- World cuisines continue to inspire NPD
- Renewed focus on in-store bakeries in 2023/24
- Jason’s Sourdough branches out into food-to-go
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Adspend rebounded in 2023, and has surged in 2024
- Graph 36: total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising on bread, by leading advertiser, 2020-24
- TV’s share of adspend rebounds
- Graph 37: total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising on bread, by media type, 2020-24
- Tesco Finest Sourdough is the star of the supermarket’s ad campaign
- Lidl promotes the quality of its in-store bakery
- St Pierre’s debut TV ad playfully urges people to ‘eat chic, not tragique’ in ‘Eat Avec Respect’ multi-channel campaign
- Themes of nostalgia, comfort and emotional connections are central to Hovis’s new ad
- Roberts Bakery unveils its biggest ever multi-channel marketing campaign to mark its comeback
- Warburtons promotes its Protein range
- Warburtons teams up with celebrities and sports stars
- Hovis and Warburtons link up with celebrity chefs
- New York Bakery Co emphasises its authenticity
- Deli Kitchen launches first advertising campaign
- Hovis links with Morrisons to help combat food poverty
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Appendix
- Supplementary data
- Prepacked bread value sales, by type
- Prepacked bread volume sales, by type
- Value sales of specialty bread and rolls, by type
- Leading brands’ sales in prepacked bread, by value
- Leading brands’ sales in prepacked bread, by volume
- Leading manufacturers’ sales in prepacked bread, by value
- Leading manufacturers’ sales in prepacked bread, by volume
- Leading brands’ sales in speciality bread and rolls, by value
- Leading manufacturers’ sales in speciality bread and rolls, by value
- Appendix – adspend by leading advertisers
- Market forecast data and methodology
- Value market size and forecast
- Volume market size and forecast
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (value)
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (volume)
- Forecast methodology
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Abbreviations and terms
- Consumer research methodology
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
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