2021
9
UK Breakfast Cereals Market Report 2021
2021-11-04T03:15:04+00:00
OX1050047
2195
144161
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Report
en_GB
“Breakfast cereal brands are working on making as much of their product ranges as possible non-HFSS ahead of the new restrictions in late 2022. As well as supporting healthy diets…

UK Breakfast Cereals Market Report 2021

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Description

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the UK Breakfast Cereals market, including the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

The COVID-19 outbreak and the ‘work from home if you can’ mandate resulted in a sharp shift in where and how people ate breakfast. The COVID-19 outbreak and the ‘work from home if you can’ mandate resulted in a sharp shift in where and how people ate breakfast.

  • The big increase in the proportion of people at home for breakfast boosted retail value sales of breakfast cereals by 8% in 2020.
  • With the reopening of schools and with more people returning to work, value sales are estimated to slip back by 5% to £1.63 billion during 2021.
  • 62% of people think they are a healthier snack option than sweet treats thereby encouraging more people to eat their breakfast cereals as a snack offers an additional revenue stream for the breakfast cereal market.

Given the current heightened health focus, that seems to point to an opportunity for indulgent cereals, which would encourage 50% of consumers to eat cereals more often, challenging traditional sweet treats as a snack choice.

Nutritional content, both being high in fibre and low/no added sugar, outstrips low price in people’s choice of breakfast cereals. However, with inflation expected to rise in the coming months and with consumer income coming under pressure, brands face a growing proposition to offer a unique proposition to justify their prices and retain users.

The COVID-19 pandemic has added fuel to the ‘positive nutrition’ trend and boosted interest in functional food and drink,. There is an opportunity in breakfast cereals to promote functional health benefits, given the strong consumer interest in products supporting digestive/gut health, heart health and immune health.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the breakfast cereals market.
  • Types and variants of breakfast cereals eaten, and frequency of eating.
  • Factors influencing choice of breakfast cereals.
  • New launch activity and concepts of interest, as well as attitudes towards selected brands.
  • Behaviours and attitudes related to eating and buying breakfast cereals.

Covered in this report

Brands: Kellogg’s (Crunchy Nut, Corn Flakes, Coco Pops, Rice Krispies, Fruit ‘n Fibre), Weetabix (Aplen, Weetabix Minis), Nestlé (Shreddies), Associated British Foods (Jordans, Dorset Cereals), PepsiCo (Quaker), Flahavan’s, Mornflake, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Marks and Spencers (M&S), Troo, Waitrose, Bio&Me, The Great British Porridge Co, Nat, Alara, Pret, Oreo.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by Richard Caines, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Breakfast cereal brands are working on making as much of their product ranges as possible non-HFSS ahead of the new restrictions in late 2022. As well as supporting healthy diets though, products also need to deliver on taste. More indulgent flavours would encourage more frequent eating of breakfast cereals, including as a healthier snack alternative to sweet treats.

Richard Caines
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • COVID-19: Market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
    • Products covered in this Report
  2. Executive Summary

    • Impact of COVID-19 on breakfast cereals
      • Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on breakfast cereals, 2021
    • The market
    • Increase in number of in-home breakfasts drives 2020 growth
    • 2021 sales set to fall back but remain above 2019
      • Figure 2: Value forecast for the UK retail breakfast cereals market, 2016-26
    • Breakfast cereals fall within remit of HFSS restrictions
    • Advertising for HFSS food and drink facing new rules
    • Companies and brands
    • Weetabix Original top brand in RTE cereals
      • Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK retail RTE cereals market, by value, 2020/21*
    • PepsiCo brands account for half of hot cereal sales
      • Figure 4: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK retail hot cereals market, by value, 2020/21*
    • Non-HFSS NPD is a key focus for cereal brands
    • Brand extensions feature in new launch activity
    • The consumer
    • More than eight in 10 people eat breakfast cereals
      • Figure 5: Types of breakfast cereals eaten, 2021
    • Six in 10 eaters of breakfast cereal eat plain variants
      • Figure 6: Variants of breakfast cereal eaten, 2021
    • Eaters of RTE cereals eat them most days
      • Figure 7: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, 2021
    • Nutritional considerations a bigger influence than low price on choice
    • Sugar concerns influence choice of cereals
      • Figure 8: Factors influencing choice of breakfast cereals, 2021
    • Strong interest in functional health benefits
      • Figure 9: Interest in selected concepts in breakfast cereals, 2021
    • Emphasising versatility of breakfast cereals a must for brands
    • More indulgent flavours and variety encourage eating
      • Figure 10: Behaviours related to eating and buying breakfast cereals, 2021
    • Four in 10 find it difficult to know what cereals are healthy
      • Figure 11: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, 2021
  3. Issues and Insights

    • People having more breakfasts at home during COVID-19
    • Boost to breakfast cereals from lockdowns and homeworking
    • Breakfast cereals become a more accessible snack choice
    • More remote working and breakfasts at home long term
    • Speed and ease of use will support demand
    • HFSS restrictions and consumer interest combine to elevate health
    • Health becomes a bigger priority in response to pandemic
    • High importance attached to getting fibre from cereals
    • Sugar concerns influence choice of cereals
    • Big opportunity to tap interest in functional health benefits
    • Strong interest in ‘positive nutrition’
    • Competition in products making heart health claims
    • Room for more products supporting immune system
    • High-fibre products must spell out their gut health benefits
    • Focusing on versatility still a must for brands to increase usage
    • Topping tips remain relevant
    • Use of cereals with other foods warrants brands’ attention
    • Links with cooking and baking hold potential
    • Flavour innovation will help drive greater frequency of eating
    • Indulgent flavours spark wide interest
    • Indulgent cereals well placed to challenge traditional sweet treats as a snack
  4. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • Increase in number of in-home breakfasts drives 2020 growth
    • 2021 sales set to fall back but remain above 2019
    • Sales of RTE cereals slipping back following COVID-19 boost
    • Hot cereals value sales hit by move to loose porridge
    • Breakfast cereals fall within remit of HFSS restrictions
    • Advertising for HFSS food and drink facing new rules
    • Growing population for breakfast cereals to target
  5. Market Size and Performance

    • Sales of breakfast cereals get a COVID-19 boost and then slip back
      • Figure 12: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on breakfast cereals, 2021
    • Increase in number of in-home breakfasts drives 2020 growth
      • Figure 13: UK retail value and volume sales of breakfast cereals, 2016-21
  6. Market Forecast

    • 2021 sales set to fall back but remain above 2019
      • Figure 14: Value forecast for the UK retail breakfast cereals market, 2016-26
      • Figure 15: Volume forecast for the UK retail breakfast cereals market, 2016-26
      • Figure 16: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25
    • Forecast methodology
  7. COVID-19 Scenario Performance

    • Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
    • Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
    • The risk of vaccine-resistant strains of COVID-19 adds uncertainty
      • Figure 17: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the UK retail breakfast cereals market, by value, 2016-26
      • Figure 18: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the UK retail breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2016-26
    • A small sales difference between Mintel’s rapid COVID recovery and extended COVID disruption scenarios in 2021
    • A setback to the vaccination programme could extend social distancing into 2022
    • Mintel’s rapid recovery scenario indicates a return to pre-COVID sales by the end of 2022
    • COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
      • Figure 19: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the breakfast cereals market, 2021
  8. Market Segmentation

    • Sales of RTE cereals slipping back following COVID-19 boost
      • Figure 20: UK retail value sales of RTE and hot breakfast cereals, 2016-21
      • Figure 21: UK retail volume sales of RTE and hot breakfast cereals, 2016-21
    • Hot cereals value sales hit by move to loose porridge
  9. Market Drivers

    • Government emphasis on health intensifies under COVID-19
    • On-pack nutrition label consultation proposed
    • HFSS food promotion and store location restrictions to come into place in 2022
    • Advertising for HFSS food and drink to face new rules from end of 2022
    • Industry promoting healthiness of breakfast cereals
    • Roadmap for breakfast cereals set out
    • New Action on Fibre initiative launched
    • Breakfast cereals and sugar reduction
      • Figure 22: Percentage of sugar reduction achieved across selected categories within PHE’s sugar reduction and reformulation programme. 2015-19
    • Growing population for breakfast cereals to target
      • Figure 23: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2015-25
    • Breakfast cereals in strong position to weather incomes squeeze
  10. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Weetabix Original top brand in RTE cereals
    • PepsiCo brands account for half of hot cereal sales
    • Non-HFSS NPD is a key focus for cereal brands
    • Gut health being linked to high-fibre claims
    • Quaker elevates taste and eating experience in heart health
    • Brand extensions feature in new launch activity
    • Big increase in advertising spending in 2020
    • Weetabix and Kellogg’s Corn Flakes the most eaten brands
  11. Market Share

    • Weetabix Original top brand in RTE cereals
      • Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
      • Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by volume, 2018/19-2020/21
    • PepsiCo brands account for half of hot cereal sales
      • Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
      • Figure 27: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by volume, 2018/19-2020/21
  12. Launch Activity and Innovation

    • Few launches give high prominence to low sugar
      • Figure 28: Proportion of new launches in breakfast cereals making no added sugar and low/reduced sugar claims, 2016-21
      • Figure 29: Examples of low/reduced sugar claims in the breakfast cereals market, 2020/21
    • Non-HFSS NPD is a key focus for cereal brands
    • High/added-fibre claims widespread in breakfast cereals
    • Fibre credentials of porridge get a boost
      • Figure 30: Proportion of new launches in breakfast cereals making high/added-fibre and high/added-protein claims, 2016-21
    • High-protein claims less common
      • Figure 31: Examples of high/added-fibre and high/added-protein claims in the breakfast cereals market, 2020/21
    • Gut health being linked to high-fibre claims
      • Figure 32: Examples of digestive health claims in the breakfast cereals market, 2020/21
    • Quaker brings luxury to heart health
      • Figure 33: Examples of heart health claims in new launch activity in the breakfast cereals market, 2020/21
    • All-natural claims rare in breakfast cereals
      • Figure 34: Examples of naturalness claims and organic in the breakfast cereals market, 2020/21
    • Packaging reduction part of sustainability commitments
      • Figure 35: Examples of packaging innovation focused on sustainability in the breakfast cereals market, 2020/21
    • Brand extensions feature in new launch activity
    • Stalwarts and new entrants venture to new spaces
      • Figure 36: Examples of brand extensions in the breakfast cereals market, 2020/21
    • Innovation in flavours and shapes continues
      • Figure 37: Examples of flavour and format development in the breakfast cereals market, 2020/21
  13. Advertising and Marketing Activity

    • Big increase in spending in 2020
      • Figure 38: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by media type, 2017-21
    • Four companies dominate advertising
      • Figure 39: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by advertiser, 2019-21
    • Nestlé Cereals pushes wholegrain and active lifestyles
    • New Paralympics GB campaign promotes active lifestyles
    • Nick Knowles fronts ‘Shreddie for anything’ campaign
    • Cheerios launches ‘Save the Bees’ campaign
    • Weetabix keeps focus on versatility
    • New ‘Have you had yours?’ creative for 2021
    • Back-to-school campaign shows more serving suggestions
    • Weetabix partners with The Football Association
    • Taste and chocolate the focus for Weetabix Melts
    • ‘Up & Alpen’ TV campaign for Alpen
    • Kellogg’s highlights diversity and playfulness
    • Iconic brands grouped together
    • Multi-platform ‘Start the Magic’ campaign for Coco Pops
    • Quaker Oats kicks off 2021 with new empowering campaign
    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
  14. Brand Research

    • Brand map
      • Figure 40: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, 2021
    • Key brand metrics
      • Figure 41: Key metrics for selected brands, 2021
    • Brand attitudes: Weetabix most seen as offering good value
      • Figure 42: Attitudes, by brand, 2021
    • Brand personality: Jordans seen as less accessible than other brands
      • Figure 43: Brand personality – macro image, 2021
    • Kellogg’s Corn Flakes seen as most traditional
      • Figure 44: Brand personality – micro image, 2021
    • Brand analysis
    • Weetabix leads on image as a healthy, family brand
      • Figure 45: User profile of Weetabix, 2021
    • Quaker Oat So Simple has the strongest image as healthy, traditional and comforting
      • Figure 46: User profile of Quaker Oat So Simple, 2021
    • Jordans’ key strengths are healthy and natural associations
      • Figure 47: User profile of Jordans, 2021
    • Kellogg’s Corn Flakes seen as the most traditional brand
      • Figure 48: User profile of Kellogg’s Corn Flakes, 2021
    • Special K seen most strongly as a healthy brand
      • Figure 49: User profile of Special K, 2021
    • Shreddies stands out as a family brand
      • Figure 50: User profile of Shreddies, 2021
    • Shredded Wheat eaten less frequently than other brands
      • Figure 51: User profile of Shredded Wheat, 2021
    • Reading word clouds
  15. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • More than eight in 10 people eat breakfast cereals
    • Eaters of RTE cereals eat them most days
    • Nutritional considerations a bigger influence than low price on choice
    • Sugar concerns influence choice of cereals
    • Strong interest in functional health benefits
    • Emphasising versatility of breakfast cereals a must for brands
    • More indulgent flavours and variety encourage eating
    • Four in 10 find it difficult to know what cereals are healthy
  16. Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour

    • People having more breakfasts at home during COVID-19
    • Boost to breakfast cereals from lockdowns and homeworking
    • More remote working and breakfasts at home long term
    • Online shopping boosted by COVID-19
    • Health becomes a bigger priority in response to the pandemic
    • Sustainability gains importance among consumers
  17. Types of Breakfast Cereals Eaten

    • More than eight in 10 people eat breakfast cereals
      • Figure 52: Types of breakfast cereals eaten, 2021
    • Six in 10 eaters of breakfast cereal eat plain variants
      • Figure 53: Variants of breakfast cereal eaten, 2021
  18. Frequency of Eating Breakfast Cereals

    • Eaters of RTE cereals eat them most days
    • Porridge/oats eaten less frequently
      • Figure 54: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, 2021
  19. Factors Influencing Choice

    • Nutritional considerations a bigger influence than low price on choice
      • Figure 55: Factors influencing choice of breakfast cereals, 2021
    • High importance attached to getting fibre from cereals
      • Figure 56: Sainsbury’s calling out daily fibre target in breakfast cereals aisle, October 2021
    • Sugar concerns influence choice of cereals
    • Naturalness also a major consideration for buyers
  20. Concepts of Interest in Breakfast Cereals

    • Strong interest in functional health benefits
      • Figure 57: Interest in selected concepts in breakfast cereals, 2021
    • Competition in products making heart health claims
    • Room for more products supporting immune system
    • High-fibre products must spell out their gut health benefits
    • Four in 10 interested in plastic-free packaging
    • Big challenge to cut out plastic completely
    • A quarter interested in using reusable containers in-store
    • Retailers trialling more refill aisles
    • Heightened interest among those keenest on sustainably sourced ingredients
  21. Behaviours Related to Eating and Buying Breakfast Cereals

    • Emphasising versatility of breakfast cereals a must for brands
    • Topping tips remain relevant
      • Figure 58: Behaviours related to eating and buying breakfast cereals, 2021
    • Use of cereals with other foods warrants brands’ attention
      • Figure 59: Linwoods cereal toppings, 2021
    • Links with cooking and baking hold potential
    • More indulgent flavours and variety encourage eating
    • Indulgent flavours spark wide interest
    • Indulgent cereals well placed to challenge traditional sweet treats as a snack
    • Limited interest in cereals being made by biscuit or confectionery brands
  22. Attitudes towards Breakfast Cereals

    • Breakfast cereals not just eaten for breakfast
      • Figure 60: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, 2021
    • Four in 10 find it difficult to know what cereals are healthy
    • Consumers struggling to get overall picture of healthiness
    • Traffic light labelling guiding choice of nearly half of eaters and buyers
    • Younger people in most need of quick guidance on healthy choices
  23. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • Consumer research methodology
  24. Appendix – Central Forecast Methodology

    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
      • Figure 61: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK value sales of breakfast cereals, 2021-26
      • Figure 62: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK volume sales of breakfast cereals, 2021-26
    • Market drivers and assumptions
      • Figure 63: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2020-25
    • Forecast methodology
  25. Appendix – COVID Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions

    • Scenario performance
      • Figure 64: Scenario performance for value retail sales of breakfast cereals, 2016-26
      • Figure 65: Scenario performance for volume retail sales of breakfast cereals, 2016-26
    • Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
    • Scenario methodology
  26. Appendix – Market Share

      • Figure 66: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail RTE cereals market, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
      • Figure 67: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereals market, by volume, 2018/19-2020/21
      • Figure 68: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereals market, by value, 2018/19-2020/21
      • Figure 69: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail hot cereals market, by volume, 2018/19-2020/21
  27. Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

      • Figure 70: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by sub-category, 2016-21
      • Figure 71: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by branded and private label, 2016-21
      • Figure 72: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by company, 2016-21
      • Figure 73: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top claims (2020), 2016-21

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