UK Breakfast Cereals Market Report
Mintel’s breakfast cereal market analysis has found that the market has struggled in recent years, amid tighter household budgets and rising prices in the category. This has taken its toll on many leading brands, with own label gaining ground on the key players in the cereal market. With consumer finances expected to begin to recover only slowly, and with the core under-15s demographic set to shrink, the market is expected to see further, if slow, volume decline ahead.
UK Breakfast Cereal Market Research from Mintel
Widespread concerns over ultra-processed ingredients pose a challenge for the market. Continued clean label NPD and steps to highlight that there has been little processing or only familiar processes remain warranted. Explaining the benefits of less familiar ingredients or fortification also holds potential for addressing these concerns.
Substantial interest in healthier variants of favourite cereals points to a compelling opportunity for brands. Lending added weight to this, health is expected to become more front-of-mind once consumer confidence regains momentum. Strong views that breakfast cereals can be both healthy and indulgent highlight the opportunity for breakfast cereals to play in the lucrative permissible treat space.
UK Breakfast Cereal Market Statistics
- UK breakfast cereal market share: A handful of leading manufacturers dominate cold cereals, the top three accounting for 55% of value sales.
UK Breakfast Cereals Market Report – What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analysed in the Report
- Analysis of the current market performance and five-year forecast for the breakfast cereals market
- Examination of product development trends in the breakfast cereals category
- Details of breakfast cereals usage by type, variety and frequency
- Analysis of consumer behaviours, including perceptions of product standout
- Exploration of consumer attitudes towards breakfast cereals, including regarding health, levels of processing and the appeal of own-label compared to branded products
Report Scope
This Report examines the UK retail market for breakfast cereals. It excludes sales through foodservice channels.
For the purposes of this Report, breakfast cereals are segmented into RTE (also known as ‘cold’) cereals and hot cereal products. The former comprises any cereals that are typically served without heating them, such as corn flakes or muesli. The hot cereal segment consists of porridge, oatmeal and instant hot oat products. The market size has been revised from the previous Report in light of latest data.
Cereal bars and other breakfast products are excluded from the scope of this Report, but reference to them is made where relevant in light of their role as competing products.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Sam Fryers. Upon graduating with a BSc degree in Business Studies, Sam joined Mintel in October 2023, building upon prior experience gained during his placement year in a consumer insights role. Sam is part of the research team in Belfast, where he contributes to the production of Mintel’s reports.
The market has been hit by the income squeeze. The acceptance of breakfast cereals as a permissible treat and interest in healthy variants point to opportunities.
Sam Fryers
Research Analyst
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Executive Summary
- Opportunities for the breakfast cereals market
- Better-for-you associations remain a prime opportunity area
- Permissible treat image holds powerful potential
- Standout is crucial to tap into strong appetite for newness
- Market dynamics and outlook
- Market size and forecast
- Market predictions for breakfast cereals
- Value sales to see marginal growth over 2024-29
- Inflation remains main engine of value growth
- Graph 1: retail value sales of breakfast cereals, by segment, 2022-24
- Weetabix retains lead in cold cereals by some distance
- Graph 2: leading brands’ sales in the cold cereals segment, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Quaker Oat So Simple dominates hot cereals
- Graph 3: leading brands’ sales in the hot cereals segment, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Healthy eating efforts extend to breakfast cereals
- Graph 4: how often people try to eat healthily, 2018-24
- What consumers want and why
- Nine in 10 eat breakfast cereals
- Graph 5: types of breakfast cereals typically eaten, 2021-24
- Plain and sweet variants stand neck and neck
- Graph 6: variants of breakfast cereals eaten, 2021-24
- Cereal aisle fails to catch users’ eyes
- Graph 7: behaviours related to breakfast cereals, 2024
- The onus is on healthy brands to cut through noise
- Graph 8: attitudes towards breakfast cereals, 2024
- Innovation and marketing
- Protein and fibre claims gain ground
- Graph 9: share of new launches in breakfast cereals with high/added protein claims, 2019-24
- Brands continue to dominate launches, gaining share
- Graph 10: share of new launches in breakfast cereals, by brand and private label, 2019-24
- Permissible treat flavours attract new launches
- Weetabix regained its position as the biggest ATL ad spender in 2023
- Graph 11: total ATL, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by top advertiser, 2021-24
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Market Dynamics
- Market size
- Retail volume sales of breakfast cereals fall in 2023 and 2024
- Graph 12: retail market size of breakfast cereals, by value and volume, 2019-24
- Inflation fuels category value growth despite volume declines in 2023 and 2024
- Market forecast
- Value growth will be driven by rising prices
- Continued consumer caution to erode volume sales in the short term
- Value sales expected to exceed £2 billion by 2026
- Healthy eating will gain interest as finances improve
- Market segmentation
- Hot cereals gain volume share
- Graph 13: volume retail sales of cereals by segment, 2022-24
- Inflation continues to fuel value growth in both segments
- Market share
- Top manufacturers dominate cold cereal sales
- Graph 14: leading manufacturers in the cold cereals segment, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Own-label is the winner in the income squeeze
- Weetabix retains lead in cold cereals
- Graph 15: leading brands’ sales in the cold cereals segment, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Smaller brands buck category gloom
- Quaker Oats remains top brand in hot cereals
- Graph 16: leading brands’ value sales in hot cereals, 2021/22-2023/24
- Market drivers
- Government measures on HFSS food & drink slow to roll out
- HFSS is defined by nutrient profile
- New report calls for tighter government measures on unhealthy foods
- Strong consumer interest in healthy eating
- Graph 17: how often people try to eat healthily, 2018-24
- Easing financial pressure will bring greater focus to sustainability
- Graph 18: most appealing sustainability-related claims when choosing food/drinks, 2024
- A shrinking under-35s population will hit demand for breakfast cereals
- Graph 19: trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2018-28
- Need to engage growing older demographics
- Breakfast cereals lose out amid hectic morning schedules
- Graph 20: consumers who lack the time to eat breakfast cereals in the morning, by age, 2024
- Financial wellbeing proves volatile in 2024
- Graph 21: the financial wellbeing index, 2019-24
- Consumers becoming more confident about the future in 2024
- Graph 22: the financial confidence index, 2019-24
- Inflation for cereals and grains plateaus
- Graph 23: CPI for breakfast cereals and other grain products and PPI for grain mill products, starches and starch products for domestic market, 2019-24
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What Consumers Want and Why
- Types of breakfast cereals eaten
- Nearly nine in 10 eat breakfast cereals
- Wide variety underpins broad appeal of breakfast cereals
- Graph 24: types of breakfast cereals typically eaten, 2021-24
- Treat flavours on an upward trend
- Graph 25: variants of breakfast cereals eaten, 2021-24
- Strong image as better-for-you treats supports sweet variants
- Frequency of using breakfast cereals
- One in four users eat cold cereals daily
- Graph 26: frequency of eating breakfast cereals, 2024
- Frequent cereal usage among those in healthy finances
- Graph 27: usage of cereals and porridge/oats once a day or more, by financial situation, 2024
- Porridge/oats benefit from health halo
- Behaviours related to breakfast cereals
- Healthier breakfast cereals hold wide appeal
- Graph 28: behaviours related to breakfast cereals, 2024
- Strong interest in healthier versions of favourite cereals
- Surreal’s growth shows appetite for healthier versions of favourite cereals
- Snack bars offer cues for conveying ‘healthy indulgence’
- Help buyers reseal packaging
- Look to smaller formats to prompt trial
- Cereal aisles lack standout…
- …with NPD at risk of going unnoticed
- NPD likely to chime with key buyers
- Attitudes towards breakfast cereals
- Spotlight on health presents opportunities and challenges
- Graph 29: attitudes towards breakfast cereals, 2024
- Strong interest in healthy cereals
- Healthy options need to be clearly signposted…
- …with a role for in-store activations
- Spotlight key benefits
- A pressing need to put parents’ minds at ease
- Graph 30: agreement that it is important for breakfast cereals to have a detailed health description on pack, by presence of children in the household, 2024
- Two in three think highly processed foods are unhealthy
- Half of adults see most breakfast cereals in supermarkets as ultra-processed
- Media coverage calls out some breakfast cereals as UPFs
- Additives are top indicator of processing for consumers
- Brands offer cues on distancing products from UPFs
- A role for explaining less familiar ingredients
- Three in five think own label is as appealing as branded
- Challenger brands show the potential for added value to drive interest
- Rich/flavourful food leads on indulgent connotations
- Graph 31: qualities seen to make a food/drink an indulgent treat, 2024
- Customer competitions offer a way to engage younger audiences
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Innovation And Marketing Trends
- Launch activity and innovation
- Energy claims rise but few feature prominently on front of pack
- Graph 32: share of new launches in breakfast cereals, by functional claims, 2019-24
- Linwoods and Quaker push energy and performance connotations
- Fibre and protein claims gain share of launches
- Graph 33: share of new launches in breakfast cereals with high/added protein claims, 2019-24
- Surreal contributes to a rise in high-protein launches, Asda packaging refresh spotlights fibre
- Brands use chicory root/inulin as a source of fibre
- No added sugar claims gain share of launches
- Graph 34: share of new launches in breakfast cereals, by sugar claims, 2019-24
- Low/reduced sugar claims rare in breakfast cereals
- Leading brands look to chocolate and nut butter in new launches
- Dessert flavours feature in new varieties/range extentions
- Major brands lead pushback against private label
- Graph 35: share of new launches in breakfast cereals, by branded and private label, 2019-24
- New varieties/range extensions make up less than a third of launches
- Graph 36: share of new launches in breakfast cereals, by launch type, 2019-24
- Sustainable sourcing and protection of habitat claims gain share
- Graph 37: share of new launches in cereal, by ethical claim, 2019-24
- Brands support sustainable farming and biodiversity
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Advertising expenditure continues to decline
- Graph 38: total ATL, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, 2021-24
- TV, digital and outdoor media spend falls in 2023
- Weetabix regains position as top ad spender in 2023
- Graph 39: total ATL, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by top advertiser, 2021-24
- Weetabix and Quaker focus on performance in 2024 campaigns
- Kellogg’s supports busy parents with nationwide football camps
- Nestlé Cereals continues partnership with ParalympicGB with ‘Bring The Cheer’
- Mornflake and the Sidemen target young consumers with internet personality-backed Best Cereals
- Nestlé launches Nesquik’s first ever media campaign in the UK
- Surreal evokes nostalgia with Cillit Bang spoof
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Appendix
- Supplementary data
- Leading brands’ value sales – cold cereals
- Leading brands’ volume sales – cold cereals
- Leading manufacturers’ value sales – cold cereals
- Leading manufacturers’ volume sales – cold cereals
- Leading brands’ sales in the UK hot cereals market, by value
- Leading brands’ sales in the UK hot cereals market, by volume
- Leading manufacturers’ sales in the UK hot cereals, by value
- Market forecast data and methodology
- Value market size and forecast
- Volume market size and forecast
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (value)
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (volume)
- Forecast methodology
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Abbreviations and terms
- Consumer research methodology
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
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