2022
9
UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report 2022
2022-05-04T04:02:50+01:00
REP59DF07F0_08B2_4049_8E9F_B20A2A1E4AA2
2195
150965
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  5. UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report 2022

UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report 2022

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The UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods report identifies consumer attitudes towards HFSS restrictions, bakery and dessert cake products, and healthier baked goods in the UK. This market report covers the market size, market forecast, market segmentation and industry trends for the Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods market in the UK.

Click here to view our German market research on Cakes and Sweet Baked Goods 2022 (DE version).

 

Current Market Landscape

Being visually appealing is one of the most important qualities influencing the choice of one product over another across all the types of cakes and sweet baked goods researched. Unsurprisingly, it is most important when choosing a celebration/party cake, but even for a whole loaf/tray cake it influences the choice of four out of 10 eaters and buyers of cakes.

  • 4 in 10 eaters and buyers of cakes are influenced in their purchase by the visual appeal of cakes.
  • 54% of category shoppers often buy cakes from the end of aisles at the supermarket.
  • 74% of eaters and buyers are interested in buying made-to-order cakes as gifts.

The cost of living is increasing steeply in 2022, with higher energy bills and food prices in particular putting a big squeeze on household budgets. While there is some correlation between having a healthier financial situation and eating cakes more often, cakes are an affordable treat for most people, and important for celebrations, which should help to insulate them from cutbacks.

Future Market Trends in Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

Cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods are at risk of reduced in-store visibility when HFSS restrictions are introduced in October 2022 banning their presence in various prominent locations.

There is an opportunity for the market to leverage customisation to drive gifting. Looks, cake size and flavours stand out as three key elements for personalisation, given high interest in these among those thinking cakes/sweet baked goods made to order make a good gift.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our UK Food and Foodservice market research

Quickly understand

  • Performance of the market following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and expected impact on sales of the rising cost of living and upcoming HFSS restrictions.
  • Frequency of eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods.
  • Qualities influencing choice of one product over another for different types of product.
  • Most appealing attributes to make cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods healthier.
  • New launch activity and product concepts of interest, as well as attitudes towards selected brands.
  • Behaviours related to eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods.

Covered in this report

Products: Whole cakes, slab cakes, loaf cakes, Swiss rolls, sponge cakes, large pies, tarts, tray bakes, crumpets, croissants, brioche loaves and rolls, pains au chocolat, pains au raisins, American muffins, scones hot cross buns/loaves, English muffins, waffles, fruit buns, crêpes, potato cakes, potato scones, Irish bread, iced buns, farls, sweet bread/buns, pikelets, doughnuts, pancakes, malt loaf, Welsh cakes.

Brands: Premier Foods (Mr Kipling), Mondelēz (Cadbury), Pladis (McVitie’s), Ferrero (Thorntons), Prudens, Maina Panettoni, Andros Foods (Bonne Maman), Samworth Brothers (Soreen), Chipita (7 Days), GH Sheldon (Sheldons), Halls, Mars, Warburtons, Brioche Pasquier, Genius Foods, Taste the Difference, M&S (Marks and Spencers), Asda, Tesco, Pret, Rustlers, Lidl, Aldi, Specially Selected, Harvest Morn, Graze, Wicked Kitchen, Plant Menu, Iceland, Cooperative Good, Krispy Kreme.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by Richard Caines, a leading analyst in the Food and Drink sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Cakes and sweet baked goods saw a strong recovery in 2021 sales, driven by the return of social gatherings, and should be fairly well protected from the income squeeze through being an affordable treat for most people. Visual appeal is a big driver of choice in cakes, so reduced in-store visibility for cakes in secondary space as a result of HFSS restrictions will make it even more important for products to stand out in the cakes aisle or the in-store bakery.

Richard Caines
Senior Food & Drink Analyst

Collapse All

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Market context
    • Products covered in this Report

  2. Executive Summary

    • The five-year outlook for cakes and sweet baked goods
      • Figure 1: Outlook for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022-27
    • The market
    • Strong recovery seen in 2021 sales
    • Cakes should be fairly well protected from income squeeze
      • Figure 2: Market forecast for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2021-26
    • Number of core younger eaters important for cakes
    • Inflation is the key concern for 2022 for consumers, brands and the economy
    • Companies and brands
    • Mr Kipling cements position as leading brand
      • Figure 3: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, 2020/21-2021/22
    • Sweet baked goods dominated by own-label
    • A fifth of new launches have a premium positioning
    • Increase in seasonal launches in 2021
    • Plant-based ranges incorporating more cakes
    • Increase in 2021 advertising but restrictions on their way
    • The consumer
    • Vast majority treat themselves to cakes
      • Figure 4: Frequency of use of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2019-22
    • Visual appeal a big driver of choice in cakes
      • Figure 5: Qualities making people choose one product over another in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022
    • No one healthier attribute has widespread appeal in cakes
      • Figure 6: Attributes to make cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods healthier with the most appeal, 2022
    • Size, flavour and format development will help grow sales
      • Figure 7: Interest in product concepts in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022
    • Taste more important than healthiness
    • Need to increase visibility and appeal of shop-bought cakes
    • Strong interest in customised products and home delivery
      • Figure 8: Behaviours related to eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022

  3. Issues and Insights

    • Maintaining visibility following HFSS restrictions crucial to sales
    • Visual appeal a big driver of choice in cakes
    • HFSS restrictions will limit in-store visibility
    • Being able to see the cake itself beneficial
    • TV advertising restrictions elevate importance of other media
    • In-store bakeries hold more potential for brands
    • Great taste should be the primary focus of NPD and marketing
    • Four in five prioritise taste over healthiness
    • Lots of topping/filling more important than being healthier
    • Emphasis on premium cakes firmly warranted
    • But healthier variants still warrant attention
    • Size, flavour and format offer more brand extension opportunities
    • Smaller formats can unlock new occasions
    • High interest in different sizes from small households and less frequent eaters
    • Seasonal flavours a good way to give products a new twist
    • Different formats appeal more to younger category users

  4. Market Size and Performance

    • Strong recovery seen in 2021 sales
      • Figure 9: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2016-21

  5. Market Forecast

    • The five-year outlook for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods
      • Figure 10: Outlook for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022-27
    • Cakes should be fairly well protected from income squeeze
      • Figure 11: Market forecast for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2021-26
    • Market drivers and assumptions
      • Figure 12: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2016-26
    • Forecast methodology

  6. Market Segmentation

    • Cakes and cake bars show return to growth
      • Figure 13: UK retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2019-21
    • Sales of sweet baked goods continue to grow
      • Figure 14: UK retail value sales of prepacked sweet baked goods, by type, 2019-21

  7. Market Drivers

    • Government emphasis on health intensifies
    • HFSS food promotion and store location restrictions to come into place in 2022
    • Advertising for HFSS food and drink to face new rules from the end of 2022
    • Out-of-home calorie labelling to be required, on-pack nutrition label consultation proposed
    • Strong consumer interest in healthy eating
    • COVID-19 increases spotlight on health
    • Number of core younger eaters important for cakes
      • Figure 15: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2016-26
    • Inflation is the key concern for 2022 for consumers, brands and the economy
      • Figure 16: Consumer concerns about household finances, 2021-22
    • Competition from home baking eases in 2021

  8. Market Share

    • Mr Kipling posts two years of growth to cement lead
      • Figure 17: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2019/20-2021/22
    • Sweet baked goods dominated by own-label
      • Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods, by value, 2019/20-2021/22

  9. Launch Activity and Innovation

    • A fifth of new launches have a premium positioning
      • Figure 19: Proportion of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods that are positioned as premium, 2017-21
    • Keen focus on indulgence continues…
      • Figure 20: Examples of new premium launches in cakes and sweet baked goods, 2021/22
      • Figure 21: Examples of new launches in cakes emphasising indulgence, 2021/22
    • …also extending to seasonal launches and cake jars
      • Figure 22: Examples of new launches in mince pies referencing specific alcoholic drinks, 2021
      • Figure 23: Examples of new launches of cake jars from M&S, 2021
    • Brand extensions increase competition and choice
      • Figure 24: Examples of brand extension in cakes and sweet baked goods, 2021/22
    • Increase in seasonal launches in 2021
      • Figure 25: Proportion of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods that are positioned as seasonal, 2017-21
      • Figure 26: Examples of new seasonal launches in cakes and sweet baked goods, 2021
    • ‘Hybrid’ bakes/cakes trend continues
      • Figure 27: Examples of hybrid products in new seasonal launches in cakes and sweet baked goods, 2021/22
      • Figure 28: Examples of new seasonal launches with biscuits/cookies in cakes and sweet baked goods, 2021/22
    • New flavour combinations a recurring theme
      • Figure 29: Examples of new flavour combinations in seasonal launches in cakes and sweet baked goods, 2021/22
    • Healthier products few and far between in cakes
      • Figure 30: Proportion of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods making low/reduced sugar, fat and calorie, and high/added fibre claims, 2017-21
      • Figure 31: Examples of launches of healthier products in cakes and sweet baked goods, 2021/22
    • Plant-based ranges incorporating more cakes
      • Figure 32: Proportion of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods making vegan/no animal ingredients claims, 2017-21
      • Figure 33: Examples of new vegan/plant-based launches in cakes and sweet baked goods, 2021/22

  10. Advertising and Marketing Activity

    • Increase in 2021 advertising spend for cakes
      • Figure 34: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by media type, 2018-22
    • Premier Foods the top spender
      • Figure 35: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by advertiser, 2018-22
    • Fibre One runs ‘Crave Club’ TV advert
    • Soreen runs campaign to support new Fruit & Veg-Mmms
    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage

  11. Brand Research

    • Brand map
      • Figure 36: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, 2022
    • Key brand metrics
      • Figure 37: Key metrics for selected brands, 2022
    • Brand attitudes: Cadbury Cakes the most trusted brand
      • Figure 38: Attitudes, by brand, 2022
    • Brand personality: Mr Kipling seen as most accessible
      • Figure 39: Brand personality – Macro image, 2022
    • Mr Kipling stands out for family and traditional associations
      • Figure 40: Brand personality – Micro image, 2022
    • Brand analysis
    • Mr Kipling seen as the best value brand
    • Krispy Kreme has strongest differentiation
    • Cadbury Cakes score highest on trust
    • Soreen has strongest healthy connotations
    • Thorntons Cakes stand out as being deemed indulgent

  12. Usage of Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

    • Vast majority treat themselves to cakes
      • Figure 41: Eating of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods in the last 3 months, 2019-22
    • Only a small proportion eat them at least once a week
      • Figure 42: Frequency of use of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022
      • Figure 43: Frequency of use of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2019-22
    • Younger groups eat cakes and sweet baked goods most often
    • Families and under-45s are core users
    • Tight budgets see people reach for cakes less

  13. Qualities Influencing Product Choice

    • Visual appeal a big driver of choice in cakes
      • Figure 44: Examples of new launches with in cakes ensuring visibility, 2022
      • Figure 45: Qualities making people choose one product over another in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022
    • Lots of topping/filling more important than being healthier

  14. Healthy Attributes with Most Appeal

    • No one healthier attribute has widespread appeal in cakes
      • Figure 46: Attributes to make cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods healthier with the most appeal, 2022
    • Being lower in sugar has strongest appeal
    • Positive nutrition from cakes far less appealing
    • Having fewer processed ingredients will win favour in cakes

  15. Interest in Product Concepts

    • Size, flavour and format development will help grow sales
    • Smaller formats can unlock new occasions
    • High interest in different sizes from small households and less frequent eaters
      • Figure 47: Interest in product concepts in cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022
    • Seasonal flavours a good way to give products a new twist
    • More sustainable products garner significant interest
    • Strong interest in sustainably sourced ingredients
    • Plastic packaging divides opinion
      • Figure 48: Oggs Lemon Cake (from Alternative Foods London) featuring a home compostable film, 2022

  16. Behaviours Related to Eating Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods

    • Taste more important than healthiness
    • Four in five prioritise taste over healthiness, reformulation poses risks
    • A case for focusing on new means to maintain visibility amid HFSS restrictions
      • Figure 49: Behaviours related to eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2022
    • Need to increase visibility and appeal of shop-bought cakes
    • HFSS restrictions will limit in-store visibility
    • In-store bakeries hold potential for brands
    • More customised products and home delivery warrant consideration
    • Cakes a significant gifting opportunity
    • Strong demand for direct-to-home delivery

  17. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • Consumer research methodology

  18. Appendix – Forecast Methodology

    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
      • Figure 50: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2021-26
    • Market drivers and assumptions
    • Forecast methodology

  19. Appendix – Market Share

      • Figure 51: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2019/20-2021/22
      • Figure 52: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail sweet baked goods, by value, 2019/20-2021/22

  20. Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

      • Figure 53: Share of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods, by claim, 2016-22
      • Figure 54: Share of new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet goods, by branded vs. private label, 2016-22

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