Stay ahead of the curve and secure future growth for your business with Mintel’s UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods Market Report. Get a 360° view of the baked goods market including market size, share and forecasted growth to help you align your business strategy with the needs of your audience.
Key Insights Covered in this Report:
- Performance of the market and the impact of rising prices on value sales
- Key trends in recent launch activity and future product development opportunities
- Barriers to eating cakes, cake bars or sweet baked goods among less frequent eaters, including being seen as too high in calories and only being for special occasions/celebrations
- Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to eating and buying cakes/sweet baked goods, including comparisons between those from specialist shops and cafés/coffee shops, and supermarkets
- Usage of selected brands and attitudes towards them.
UK Cake Market Current Outlook
The UK cake market grew strongly in 2023, driven by higher prices. Even a tight financial situation is no barrier to individual cakes/sweet bakes making it onto people’s weekly menus. The wide availability of affordable options underpins this. Highlighting the limited role of affordability as a put-off, only 20% of infrequent/non-eaters list cakes being too expensive as a barrier. This rises only slightly to 25% of those with a tight financial situation and to 31% among those struggling/in-trouble. This has supported the category during the income squeeze.
UK Cake Market – Consumer Trends
The spotlight on ultra-processed foods (UPFs) extends to cakes: 59% of people think that cakes and sweet baked goods from supermarkets are ultra-processed. However, this has little impact on usage. Therefore, further coverage around UPFs poses a limited threat to the category. Their position as a sweet treat is likely to see them face less of a backlash due to related health concerns than foods with more of an everyday image.
Specialist shops’ cakes/sweet bakes offering is deemed more appealing than supermarkets’ by 73% of eaters and buyers of sweet baked goods. This preference for the cakes/sweet baked goods offer of specialist shops points to opportunities for supermarkets to take learnings from the product offer and display of these competitors to further dial up their treat image.
Purchase the full report for a complete overview of the UK Cakes, Cake Bars and Sweet Baked Goods market, including market dynamics and comprehensive analysis from Mintel’s industry experts. Readers of this report may also be interested in Mintel’s UK Sweet Biscuits Market Report.
Market Definitions
This report examines the UK retail market for cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods. The market size includes sales through all retail channels. Mintel defines the market as comprising packaged (wrapped) cakes and sweet baked goods which are kept at ambient temperatures, as well as cakes from in-store bakeries and bakery shops.
The market can be broadly segmented into small cakes, large cakes, celebration cakes, occasion cakes and puddings, and sweet baked goods.
- ‘Small cakes’ include individual cakes either sold singly or as multipacks or assortments, including seasonal and occasion variants. These include slices, small pies and tarts, mini rolls, cupcakes, bites, cake bars, flapjacks and other small cakes.
- ‘Large cakes’ include cakes intended for sharing. These include whole cakes, slab cakes, loaf cakes, Swiss rolls, sponge cakes, large pies and tarts, and tray bakes.
- ‘Sweet baked goods’ include crumpets, croissants, brioche loaves and rolls, pains au chocolat and raisins, American muffins, scones, hot cross buns/loaves, malt and fruit loaves, pancakes, teacakes, doughnuts, English muffins, waffles, fruit buns, crêpes, potato cakes/scones, Irish bread, iced buns, farls, sweet bread/buns and pikelets.
Meet The Expert
This report is written by Richard Caines, Principal Analyst for UK Food & Drink Research at Mintel. Richard is responsible for researching and writing a wide range of UK food and drink reports, as well as writing Analyst Insights discussing key launches, marketing activity and trends. Richard has more than 25 years of experience in market research, including a number of different analyst roles at Mintel.
Price rises fuelled cakes/sweet bakes’ strong growth in 2023. Bringing elements of specialist shops and cafés/coffee shops to supermarkets offers growth potential.
Richard Caines
Principal Analyst, UK Food & Drink Research
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Executive Summary
- Opportunities for the cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods market
- Make supermarket cake/sweet baked goods offer more like specialist shops’
- Bring the café/coffee shop experience into the home, including with café/coffee shop collections
- Call out 200 calories or less more actively in marketing
- Market dynamics and outlook
- Market size and forecast
- Market predictions
- Slow down in value sales growth forecast, driven by small increases in volume sales and lower inflation
- Sweet baked goods outpace growth of cakes and cake bars
- Graph 1: retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2021-23
- Own-label continues to dominate cake sales
- Graph 2: leading brands’ value sales in the retail cakes and cake bars market, 2021/22-23/24
- Warburtons and St Pierre drive branded growth in sweet baked goods
- Graph 3: leading brands’ value sales in the retail sweet baked goods market, 2021/22-23/24
- Rapid price rises have damaged household finances
- Small impact on sales from HFSS product location restrictions
- Cakes/sweet baked goods face competition from home baking
- Graph 4: “I eat homemade cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods more than shop bought ones”, by age, 2024
- What consumers want and why
- Nine in 10 people eat cakes and sweet baked goods
- Graph 5: eating of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2019-24
- Cakes and sweet bakes are an infrequent treat for most people
- Graph 6: frequency of eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2024
- Being high in calories the biggest barrier to eating cakes or sweet baked goods
- Graph 7: barriers to not eating cakes and sweet goods more often/at all, 2024
- Bring elements of specialist shops and cafés/coffee shops to supermarkets
- Graph 8: behaviours related to eating and buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2024
- Cakes/sweet baked goods being ultra-processed only a limited put-off, more scope for snacking cakes
- Graph 9: attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2024
- Innovation and marketing
- Premium launches increase in prominence and more new flavour twists
- Prominent better-for-you positioning remains rare in cakes and sweet baked goods launches
- Sharp increase in 2023 adspend on cakes and sweet baked goods
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Market Dynamics
- Market size
- Higher prices drive 11% growth in value sales in 2023
- Graph 10: retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2018-23
- Affordability and being an infrequent treat keeps cakes on the menu
- Market forecast
- Value sales growth to slow down with lower inflation
- Sales forecast to reach £3.7 billion by 2028
- Affordable and permissible treat image will support sales
- Sweet bakes to outperform cakes/cake bars over 2023-28
- Last income squeeze saw flat sales of cakes and cake bars
- Graph 11: retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2010-15
- Market segmentation
- Sweet baked goods outpace growth of cakes and cake bars
- Graph 12: retail value sales of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, by segment, 2021-23
- Growth for small and large cakes, but decline for celebration and occasion cakes
- Graph 13: retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by sub-segment, 2021-23
- Crumpets, pain au chocolat and fruit buns drive sweet baked goods growth
- Graph 14: retail value sales of sweet baked goods, by sub-segment, 2021-23
- Market share
- Own-label continues to dominate cake sales
- Graph 15: leading brands’ value sales in the retail cakes and cake bars market, 2021/22-23/24
- Own-label gains further share of cake sales
- Own-label continues to dominate sweet baked goods
- Graph 16: leading brands’ value sales in the retail sweet baked goods market, 2021/22-23/24
- Warburtons and St Pierre drive branded growth in sweet baked goods
- Macro-economic factors
- The UK economy moved into a shallow recession in the second half of 2023
- Graph 17: GDP, 2021-23
- Inflation is still the key factor affecting consumers’ finances
- Graph 18: CPI inflation rate, 2021-24
- Food price rises starting to come down
- Graph 19: consumer price inflation for other bakery products and all food, 2022-24
- Interest rates expected to fall in 2024, but borrowing pressures will remain
- Food and drink prices still top the list of consumer concerns
- Graph 20: “Have you been affected by any of these issues over the last two months? Please select all that apply.”, 2023
- Consumer sentiment: the recovery is continuing…
- Graph 21: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-23
- …and people feel more confident about their financial prospects
- Graph 22: the financial confidence index, 2016-23
- Social, environmental and legal factors
- Government measures on HFSS food and drink slow to roll out
- Cakes and sweet baked goods fall within HFSS
- HFSS is defined by nutrient profile
- Strong consumer interest in healthy eating
- Graph 23: how often people try to eat healthily, 2018-22
- Population growth will support demand for cakes and sweet bakes
- Graph 24: trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2018-28
- Mixed effects from changes in size of different age groups
- Competition from home-baked cakes/sweet baked goods
- Graph 25: I eat homemade cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods more than shop bought ones, by age, 2024
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What Consumers Want and Why
- Usage of cakes, cakes bars and sweet baked goods
- Nine in ten people eat cakes and sweet baked goods
- Graph 26: eating of cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2019-24
- Cakes and sweet bakes are an infrequent treat for most people
- Graph 27: frequency of eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2024
- Younger people are core users of cakes and sweet bakes
- Graph 28: eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods once a week or more, by age, 2024
- Affordability keeps cakes on the menu even for those struggling financially
- Graph 29: eating cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods once a week or more, by financial situation, 2024
- Barriers to eating cakes and sweet baked goods
- More than half of people eat cakes/sweet baked goods infrequently or not at all
- Being high in calories the biggest barrier to eating cakes or sweet baked goods
- Range of barriers stop people eating cakes/sweet baked goods more
- Graph 30: barriers to not eating cakes and sweet goods more often/at all, 2024
- High calories are a bigger barrier for older people
- Graph 31: barriers to not eating cakes and sweet goods more often/at all, by age, 2024
- Strong interest in servings of 200 calories or less
- Room for more cakes with less than 200 calories per serving to shout about it
- Prominent calorie call-outs feature in other treats
- Reduced sugar or fat claims risk making treats less appealing for some…
- …but many don’t think they lessen appeal
- Graph 32: agreement that ‘cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods that state on the packaging that they have less of an unhealthy ingredient (eg reduced sugar) don’t taste as good’, among those finding cakes/sweet bakes under 200 calories appealing, 2024
- Mini cakes/sweet bakes can tap interest in fewer calories per serving
- Mini formats in other sweet treats highlight limited calories
- Focus on special occasions/celebrations holding back sales
- Graph 33: special occasions and celebrations as reasons for buying cakes and sweet baked goods, 2023
- More potential to mine seasonal celebrations
- Cakes for every seasonal celebration
- Promote celebrating ‘small wins’ with cakes
- Behaviours related to eating and buying cakes and sweet baked goods
- Bring elements of specialist shops and cafés/coffee shops to supermarkets
- Graph 34: behaviours related to eating and buying cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2024
- Make supermarket cake/sweet baked goods offer more like specialist shops’
- Specialist shops’ offer deemed more appealing than supermarkets’
- In-store bakeries have a role to play in better replicating specialist retail offer
- Freshly baked element of cakes/sweet bakes important
- Use the importance of visual appeal appeal to tempt shoppers
- Showcase products from specialist brands and bakeries
- Opportunity for more limited editions and specials in ISBs and promoting them on social media
- Cafés/coffee shops compete for spending on cakes/sweet bakes
- Intense competition to retail channels from cafés/coffee shops
- Having cake at a café/coffee shop seen as more of a treat than eating cake at home
- Room for café/coffee shop collections and limited availability cakes/sweet bakes
- Bundle deals opportunity in marketing of coffee shop experience at home
- Room for less indulgent cakes at home that still feel like a treat
- Attitudes towards cakes and sweet baked goods
- Six in 10 think that most cakes/sweet baked goods from supermarkets are ultra-processed
- Graph 35: attitudes towards cakes, cake bars and sweet baked goods, 2024
- Processed image is rarely a barrier
- Media spotlight on ultra-processed foods poses less of a threat to cakes than foods that are less of a treat
- Only a fifth of infrequent/non-users put off eating cakes by them being too processed
- Homemade/freshly baked credentials should appeal
- Clean label positioning will go some way to combat ultra-processed concerns
- Opening up manufacturing process also offers scope to address processed image
- Room for cakes and sweet baked goods to improve their snack credentials
- Target the four in 10 people who snack to treat themselves
- Further opportunities for sweet treat brands to extend offer into snacking cakes
- A place for ‘healthy indulgence’ in snacking cakes
- Pure indulgence in snacking cakes also warranted, especially for evening snacking
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Innovation And Marketing Trends
- Launch activity and innovation
- Range extensions continue to feature heavily in launch activity
- Graph 36: new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods, by launch type, 2019-24
- Launches in cakes with a premium positioning increase in prominence
- Graph 37: new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods with premium and economy positioning, 2019-24
- New flavour twists aim to add differentiation in own-label launches
- Seasonal products feature prominently in launch activity
- Graph 38: new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods with seasonal and limited edition positionings, 2019-24
- ‘Hot cross bun’ flavour extends beyond buns
- New twists for mince pies
- More ‘summer edition’ launches from Tesco and Sainsbury’s
- Brand extensions add more variety to cakes/sweet baked goods offer
- Healthier products remain rare in cakes and sweet baked goods
- Graph 39: new launches of cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods with selected better-for-you claims, 2019-24
- Difficulty achieving non-HFSS status
- Small number of launches make reduced sugar claims
- High-protein claims in waffles, pancakes and flapjacks and brownie bites ‘with benefits’ from Holland & Barrett
- Soreen launches Lift Bars
- Vegan and plant-based claims lose ground
- Graph 40: new launches in cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods making vegan/no animal ingredients and plant based claims, 2019-24
- Range of different types of vegan/plant-based cakes added by smaller brands
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Sharp increase in 2023 adspend on cakes and sweet baked goods
- Graph 41: above-the-line, online display and direct mail adspend on sweet cakes/sweet baked goods, 2019-23
- Premier Foods tops 2023 adspend while retailers spend more on advertising cakes/sweet baked goods
- Graph 42: above-the-line, online display and direct mail adspend on sweet cakes/sweet baked goods, by advertiser, 2022-23
- Mr Kipling focuses on emotional connections
- Soreen and Urban Legend push better-for-you messages
- Soreen supports launch of Lift bars with new advertising
- Own-label cakes and sweet baked goods get more advertising support from supermarkets
- Graph 43: above-the-line, online display and direct mail adspend on sweet cakes/sweet baked goods, top products advertised by retailers, 2023
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Brand Research
- Cadbury is the most trusted brand in cakes
- No brand stands out above others but chocolate brands most support a price premium
- Nearly half of people ate Cadbury Cakes in the last year
- Mr Kipling and Soreen attract usage across all ages, other brands have a younger user base
- Graph 44: usage of brands in the last 12 months, by age, 2024
- Correspondence maps
- Cadbury Cakes most widely seen as offering consistently high quality
- Cadbury and Mr Kipling seen as more innovative than other brands
- Cadbury has the most fun image among cake brands
- Cadbury, Mr Kipling and McVitie’s in good position to tap nostalgia
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Appendix
- Market segmentation
- Sweet baked goods: value sales breakdown by product type
- Sweet baked goods: value sales breakdown by product type (continued)
- Market share
- Cakes and cake bars: brand value sales
- Cakes and cake bars: manufacturer value sales
- Sweet baked goods: brand value sales
- Sweet baked goods: manufacturer value sales
- Advertising and marketing activity
- TV leads adspend on cakes/sweet baked goods
- Premier Foods is biggest cakes advertiser
- Launch activity and innovation
- Share of new launches by branded vs private label
- Share of new launches by launch type
- Share of new launches by claim
- Share of new launches by claim (continued)
- Market forecast data and methodology
- Value market size and forecast: total cakes and sweet baked goods
- Value market size and forecast: cakes and cake bars
- Value market size and forecast: sweet baked goods
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (value): total cakes and sweet baked goods
- Slowdown in sales growth for cakes and cake bars forecast with lower inflation
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (value): Cakes and cake bars
- Sales of sweet baked goods forecast to reach over £1.5 billion
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (value): Sweet baked goods
- Forecast methodology
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Exclusions
- Abbreviations and terms
- Methodology
- Consumer research methodology
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
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