2021
9
UK Chocolate Confectionery Market Report 2021
2021-09-03T04:19:10+01:00
OX1049529
2195
142094
[{"name":"Chocolate Confectionery","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/food\/confectionery\/chocolate-confectionery"}]
Report
en_GB
“The government’s anti-obesity drive and consumers’ heightened health concerns, stoked by the pandemic, put pressure on the chocolate category to cut sugar. However, reformulations run the risk of deterring consumers.

UK Chocolate Confectionery Market Report 2021

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Description

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the UK Chocolate Confectionery market, including the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

The COVID-19 outbreak boosted overall retail volume sales of the UK chocolate and confectionary market by driving up rates of at-home snacking, especially emotion-led snacking. However, the loss of sales in the seasonal and chocolate assortments segments plus the shift from higher-priced impulse formats to larger formats drove down average prices within the category.

The UK Government’s anti-obesity drive, seen for example in the regulations on advertising, confectionary production and promotions of HFSS foods, plus consumers’ increased health consciousness, pose a threat to chocolate volume sales.

  • Around 35% of chocolate eaters and buyers report being more concerned with the health issues surrounding chocolate compared with 12 months ago.
  • Around 44% of category users and buyers to stop buying a favourite product due to recipe change which led to reduce sugar.
  • 60% of chocolate eaters and buyers are interested in trying chocolate with added vitamins and minerals.

While reformulations in chocolate and confectionary can run the risk of alienating consumers, positive nutritional benefits can appeal even for indulgent products. This appears underexplored given the consumer interest, with vitamin and mineral fortified claims featuring on less than 1% of chocolate launches in 2020. This approach of attaching positive health and nutrition claims to less healthy products, does, however, bring risks of controversy.

Products that deliver a significant sugar reduction while offering aspects that appeal in and of themselves, such as substituting milk chocolate with dark chocolate or making up some of the product weight with nuts, warrant further exploration. This should appeal to shoppers seeking out lower sugar products while avoiding raising concerns that they compromise on chocolate’s treat aspects.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our UK Foodservice market research.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the chocolate category.
  • Consumers’ attitudes towards sugar and health-led reformulations in chocolate.
  • Buying factors for chocolate and how these vary depending on whether people are buying for themselves or as a gift.
  • The influence of price and promotions in the chocolate category and potential impact of the HFSS regulations.
  • Recent trends in launch activity within the chocolate category and opportunities for further innovation.
  • Chocolate & Confectionery Production in the UK.
  • Chocolate & Confectionery UK market.

Covered in this report

Brands: Mondelez (Cadbury, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Cadbury Crunchie, Cadbury Creme Egg, Cadbury Twirl, Cadbury Wispa, Milka), Mars Wigley (Mars, Maltesers, Galaxy, Snickers, Milky Way), Nestlé (Milkybar, Aero, M&Ms, KitKat), Carambar (Terry’s), Lindt, Ferrero (Kinder).

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by Alice Baker, a leading analyst in the Foodservice sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The government’s anti-obesity drive and consumers’ heightened health concerns, stoked by the pandemic, put pressure on the chocolate category to cut sugar. However, reformulations run the risk of deterring consumers. Companies therefore need to create products which deliver a significant sugar reduction alongside other appealing attributes. Vegan and vitamin/mineral-fortified variants warrant further exploration, though the latter approach comes with some risk of controversy.

Alice Baker
Senior Research Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • COVID-19: market context
          • Economic and other assumptions
            • Products covered in this Report
            • Executive Summary

                • Impact of COVID-19 on chocolate
                  • Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on chocolate, 2021
                • The market
                  • Pandemic nudges up chocolate volume sales despite declines in some segments
                    • Upward price shifts and slight decline in volume sales predicted for 2021-26
                      • Figure 2: Market size and COVID-19 scenario forecast for retail value sales of chocolate, 2016-26
                    • Restrictions on HFSS food advertising and promotions to hamper the chocolate category
                      • COVID-19 restrictions boost block chocolate but drive down sales in other segments
                        • Companies and brands
                          • Cadbury Dairy Milk gains from the pandemic
                            • Figure 3: Leading brands’ sales in the UK chocolate confectionery^ market, by value, 2019/20-2020/21
                          • Lindor bucks the negative trend in assortments
                            • Environmentally friendly packaging claims rise in 2020
                              • Little NPD in low/reduced sugar but leading brands release smaller formats to achieve calorie reduction
                                • Chocolate brands target at-home occasions in their 2020-21 marketing
                                  • The consumer
                                    • COVID-19 pandemic alters chocolate eating patterns
                                      • Figure 4: Types of chocolate eaten, 2020 and 2021
                                    • HFSS promotion restrictions stand to dent chocolate volume sales
                                      • Figure 5: Buying factors for chocolate by occasion, 2021
                                    • Less than half of chocolate buyers are brand loyal
                                      • Companies are under pressure to cut sugar, but reformulations risk alienating consumers
                                        • Figure 6: Behaviours relating to chocolate, 2021
                                      • Highlight provenance to build quality associations and encourage gifting
                                        • Figure 7: Attitudes towards chocolate, 2021
                                    • Issues and Insights

                                      • Develop products with lower sugar content and additional points of appeal
                                        • Smaller formats have big potential
                                          • Highlight provenance to boost quality image and encourage gifting
                                          • The Market – Key Takeaways

                                            • Pandemic nudges up chocolate volume sales despite declines in some segments
                                              • Upward price shifts and slight decline in volume sales predicted for 2021-26
                                                • Restrictions on HFSS food advertising and promotions to hamper the chocolate category
                                                  • COVID-19 restrictions boost block chocolate but drive down sales in other segments
                                                  • Market Size and Performance

                                                    • Pandemic nudges up chocolate volume sales despite declines in some segments
                                                      • Figure 8: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on chocolate, 2021
                                                    • Inflation and modest volume sales drive category growth over 2016-21
                                                      • Figure 9: Retail market size for chocolate, 2016-21
                                                    • Slight volume sales growth and near-flat value sales in 2020
                                                      • Segment performance in first half of 2021 mirrors that of 2020, but inflation is stronger
                                                        • Chocolate eating patterns to shift again in second half of 2021
                                                        • Market Forecast

                                                          • Rising prices and slight decline in volume sales predicted for 2021-26
                                                            • Volume sales to decline over 2021-26 as the UK enters the ‘next normal’
                                                              • Figure 10: Market forecast for retail volume sales in the UK chocolate market, 2021-26
                                                              • Figure 11: Market forecast for retail value sales in the UK chocolate market, 2021-26
                                                            • Revival in sales of higher-priced segments should boost value sales in 2022
                                                              • Market drivers and assumptions
                                                                  • Figure 12: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25
                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                • COVID-19 Scenario Performance

                                                                  • Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
                                                                    • Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
                                                                      • Only minor differences in outcomes between the three scenarios
                                                                        • Figure 13: COVID-19 scenario value forecasts, 2016-26
                                                                        • Figure 14: COVID-19 scenario volume forecasts, 2016-26
                                                                      • Volume sales to drop off earlier but inflation to run faster in the event of rapid COVID recovery
                                                                        • Extended disruption to fuel snacking but favour lower-priced products
                                                                          • COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
                                                                            • Figure 15: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the chocolate retail market, 2021
                                                                        • Market Segmentation

                                                                          • COVID-19 restrictions boost block chocolate but erode other chocolate confectionery sales
                                                                            • Figure 16: Retail value and volume sales of chocolate 2019-21, by segment
                                                                          • Easing of COVID-19 restrictions will reverse some of block chocolate’s gains
                                                                            • Restrictions on socialising undermine sales of seasonal chocolate
                                                                              • Chocolate assortments also lose out from loss of social occasions
                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                • UK Government takes action on health
                                                                                  • Food industry fails to meet sugar reduction targets
                                                                                    • New restrictions on advertising of HFSS products to come into force in 2022
                                                                                      • Restrictions on price promotions and store location could have a significant impact on chocolate sales
                                                                                        • Consultation launched on reviewing traffic light labelling
                                                                                          • Government-commissioned report advocates ‘sugar tax’ on processed foods
                                                                                            • Multiple factors affect chocolate prices
                                                                                              • Cocoa prices fall in 2020-21 due to the effects of the pandemic
                                                                                                • Tourism contributes to value sales of chocolate
                                                                                                  • Brexit has limited effects on chocolate category
                                                                                                    • Shortage of HGV drivers in 2021 has little impact on the chocolate category
                                                                                                      • Ageing UK population offers little support to chocolate
                                                                                                        • Figure 17: Projected population change 2020-25, by age group
                                                                                                      • Media coverage of slavery court case could undermine consumers’ trust in chocolate brands
                                                                                                      • Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

                                                                                                        • Cadbury Dairy Milk gains from the pandemic
                                                                                                          • Lindor bucks the negative trend in assortments
                                                                                                            • Environmentally friendly packaging claims rise in 2020
                                                                                                              • Little NPD in low/reduced sugar but leading brands release smaller formats to achieve calorie reduction
                                                                                                                • Chocolate brands target at-home occasions in their 2020-21 marketing
                                                                                                                • Market Share

                                                                                                                  • Pandemic boosts Cadbury Dairy Milk sales
                                                                                                                    • Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK chocolate confectionery market, by value and volume, 2018/19-2020/21
                                                                                                                  • Mars brands struggle to regain lost ground in 2021
                                                                                                                    • Lindor bucks the negative trend in chocolate assortments in 2020-21
                                                                                                                      • Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK chocolate assortments market, by value and volume, 2018/19-2020/21
                                                                                                                    • Mixed results for specialist chocolate shops
                                                                                                                      • Seasonal chocolate brands struggle amid COVID-19 restrictions
                                                                                                                        • Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK seasonal chocolate market, by value and volume, 2018/19-2020/21
                                                                                                                    • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                      • Environmentally friendly packaging claims rise in 2020
                                                                                                                        • Figure 21: Share of UK chocolate launches with ethical claims, 2017-21 (sorted by 2020)
                                                                                                                      • Leading brands continue their efforts to reduce plastic use
                                                                                                                        • Figure 22: Examples of chocolate product launches with less packaging, 2020
                                                                                                                      • Brands and retailers remove plastic trays from seasonal chocolate packaging
                                                                                                                        • Figure 23: Maltesers Crunchy Egg removes plastic tray, 2021
                                                                                                                      • Nestlé switches to paper packaging for its Smarties range
                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Nestlé Smarties Buttons Milk Chocolate in paper packaging, 2021
                                                                                                                      • Leading brands overhaul their packaging graphics
                                                                                                                        • Cadbury Dairy Milk undertakes a major packaging redesign in 2021…
                                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Cadbury Dairy Milk Chocolate Tablet – Before and after, 2020-21
                                                                                                                        • …and removes branding from packs in link-up with Age UK
                                                                                                                          • Cadbury redesigns packaging for single bars as COVID-19 restrictions ease
                                                                                                                            • Galaxy cues up texture in packaging redesign
                                                                                                                              • Figure 26: Galaxy Darker Milk Chocolate – Before and after packaging redesign, 2019 and 2021
                                                                                                                            • Green & Black’s adds intensity scale to chocolate packaging
                                                                                                                              • Fairtrade claims are widespread; further differentiation needed
                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Kirkland Signature Organic Dark Chocolate Belgian Thins, 2021
                                                                                                                              • Low/no/reduced sugar claims are rare in chocolate
                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Share of UK chocolate launches with sugar-related health claims, 2017-21
                                                                                                                              • Guylian launches chocolate blocks with stevia
                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Guylian Intense Dark 84% Chocolate Bars sweetened with stevia, 2021
                                                                                                                              • Leading brands release smaller formats to achieve calorie reduction
                                                                                                                                • Vegan claims grow but remain niche
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Share of UK chocolate launches with vegan and dairy-free claims, 2017-21
                                                                                                                                • Leading chocolate brands launch vegan variants
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Examples of vegan chocolate launches, 2020-21
                                                                                                                                • Tesco plans its own vegan chocolate
                                                                                                                                  • Brands and retailers continue to innovate with flavours
                                                                                                                                    • Cadbury revives its flavour competition…
                                                                                                                                      • …and brings Australian favourite Caramilk to the UK
                                                                                                                                        • Nestlé expands the KitKat range…
                                                                                                                                          • …and continues the ‘dark milk’ trend with new Aero variant
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Examples of new product launches by Nestlé, 2021
                                                                                                                                          • New Snickers peanut butter variant adds to roster of under 100-calorie products
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Snickers Creamy Peanut Butter Milk Chocolate Bar, 2021
                                                                                                                                          • Textures add additional interest
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Examples of chocolate product launches with interesting textures, 2021
                                                                                                                                          • Brands and own-label turn to trendy ingredients
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Examples of chocolate launches with trendy flavours, 2020
                                                                                                                                          • Summer flavours become more mainstream
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Sainsbury’s Summer Edition Lemon Meringue Pie Chocolate Slab, 2021
                                                                                                                                          • Cadbury gifting formats look to find new occasions
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Cadbury chocolate gift cards target ‘just because’ gifting occasions
                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                          • Advertising spend rises in 2020
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on chocolate, by advertiser, 2019-21 (sorted by 2020)
                                                                                                                                          • Mondelez continues to lead on advertising in 2020
                                                                                                                                            • Cadbury offers support to independent chocolate shops
                                                                                                                                              • Cadbury Dairy Milk continues its focus on kindness
                                                                                                                                                • Christmas and Easter campaigns promote ways that people can connect despite COVID-19 restrictions
                                                                                                                                                  • Crème Egg celebrates its 50th anniversary
                                                                                                                                                    • Cadbury revives the “Win the Captain” promotion in 2021
                                                                                                                                                      • Mars accounts for 20% of chocolate advertising in 2020
                                                                                                                                                        • Galaxy promotes redesign with new TV advert
                                                                                                                                                          • Maltesers pledges support for mothers’ mental health
                                                                                                                                                            • Snickers highlights its sponsorship of the English and Scottish football teams
                                                                                                                                                              • Kinder takes the lion’s share of Ferrero’s 2020 advertising
                                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé promotes its brands’ ethical credentials
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Facebook post by Kit-Kat promoting its responsible sourcing, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                • Lindt’s tasting sessions should boost its quality image
                                                                                                                                                                  • Various brands look to tap into the home baking trend…
                                                                                                                                                                    • …and position their products as ideal for nights in
                                                                                                                                                                      • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                          • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Key metrics for selected brands, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand attitudes: Cadbury Dairy Milk is the most widely seen as good value
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Attitudes, by brand, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand personality: Lindt is the most widely seen as exclusive
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Brand personality – Macro image, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                          • Cadbury Dairy Milk is the most widely seen as comforting
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Brand personality – Micro image, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cadbury Dairy Milk’s comforting associations give it an advantage
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: User profile of Cadbury Dairy Milk, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                            • Lindt Excellence has a strong quality image
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: User profile of Lindt Excellence, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                            • Galaxy is widely seen as delicious and comforting
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: User profile of Galaxy, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                            • Thorntons’ associations with gifting underpin as associations with being special and indulgent
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: User profile of Thorntons, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                            • Kinder Bueno does better among younger adults than older people
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: User profile of Kinder Bueno, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                            • Tony’s Chocolonely is niche, but enjoys high levels of user satisfaction
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: User profile of Tony’s Chocolonely, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                            • Quality Street has a strong traditional and family image
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: User profile of Quality Street, May 2021
                                                                                                                                                                            • Reading word clouds
                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Key Takeaways

                                                                                                                                                                              • COVID-19 pandemic alters chocolate eating patterns
                                                                                                                                                                                • HFSS promotion restrictions stand to dent chocolate volume sales
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Less than half of chocolate buyers are brand loyal
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Companies are under pressure to cut sugar, but reformulations risk alienating consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Highlight provenance to build quality associations and encourage gifting
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Lockdowns decimate out-of-home occasions but drive some consumption in-home
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Rise in snacking boosts chocolate…
                                                                                                                                                                                            • …but consumers’ heightened focus on health poses a threat
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Pandemic sharpens consumers’ focus on sustainability
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Rise in online shopping curbs impulse buys but fuels DTC opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Growth in online retail limits opportunities for impulse buying
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Under-35s are the most likely to have bought direct from brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Usage Frequency for Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Pandemic boosts chocolate usage frequency
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Frequency of eating chocolate, 2020 and 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Ageing population offers little support for chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Child population is crucial to the category
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Types of Chocolate Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Usage of single-serve bars unchanged despite decline in out-of-home occasions
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Types of chocolate eaten, 2020 and 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • COVID-19 restrictions boost chocolate blocks
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Buying Factors for Chocolate by Occasion

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Less than half of chocolate buyers are brand loyal
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Buying factors for chocolate by occasion, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Flavour and texture innovation can help newcomers to attract buyers
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • HFSS regulations stand to dent volumes given popularity of promotions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Promotions have more sway than low price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Multibuy promotions exert considerable influence on buying
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Only a minority are swayed by ethical certifications
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Need to make ethical credentials more tangible
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Behaviours Relating to Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Companies are under pressure to cut sugar, but reformulations risk alienating consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Behaviours relating to chocolate, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Further behaviours relating to chocolate, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Certain products can appeal while delivering ‘incidental’ sugar reductions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Scope for further NPD in lower-sugar products with positive nutritional benefits
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Examples of sweet snacks with vitamin/mineral fortified claims, 2020-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumers’ moderation tendency offers opportunities for miniature formats…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …and could allow premium products to grow sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Attitudes towards Chocolate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Chocolate is widely seen as essential for a night in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Attitudes towards chocolate, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Highlight provenance to boost quality image and encourage gifting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Premium chocolate launches call out cocoa provenance and variety in 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Examples of premium chocolate launches highlighting regional provenance and cocoa variety on-pack, 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Outline production methods to strengthen premium image
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference Dominican Republic Dark Chocolate, 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix: Central Forecast Methodology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Market forecast and prediction intervals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Market forecast and prediction intervals for retail value sales of chocolate, 2021-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Market forecast and prediction intervals for retail volume sales of chocolate, 2021-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Market drivers and assumptions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2021-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – COVID Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Scenario performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Scenario performance for retail value sales of chocolate, 2016-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Scenario performance for retail volume sales of chocolate, 2016-26
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Scenario methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Leading brand-owners’ sales and share in the UK chocolate confectionery market, 2018/19-2020/21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK chocolate assortments market, by value and volume, 2018/19-2020/21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK seasonal chocolate market, by value and volume, 2018/19-2020/21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on chocolate, 2019-21, by top five advertisers (sorted by 2020)

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