2021
9
UK COVID-19 And Out-Of-Home Leisure: A Year On Market Report 2021
2021-05-05T04:12:16+01:00
OX1044887
2195
137593
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Report
en_GB
“With leisure activities having been “out of bounds” for so long there is significant pent-up demand for socialising in venues again. Younger consumers, who represent the core audience for most…

UK COVID-19 And Out-Of-Home Leisure: A Year On Market Report 2021

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Report Summary

The UK Out-Of-Home Leisure market report identifies consumer attitudes towards gyms, activities, out-of-home facilities, experiences and leisure during COVID-19 in the UK. This report also covers the market size, market forecast, market segmentation, industry trends, and the impact of COVID-19 on the Out-Of-Home Leisure market in the UK.

Current Market Landscape 

The pandemic has already inflicted catastrophic damage on the out-of-home leisure sector, with total value falling by almost half in 2020, with working-from home expected to remain a trend even once COVID-19 is no longer a significant threat. This will have major ramifications for the leisure industry, alongside virtually every other consumer-facing industry.

  • 37% of full-time workers expect to work from home more often than they did before the pandemic.
  • The total market is estimated to have declined by 44% to reach £18.9 billion (56% when excluding online gambling)
  • Value of the leisure industry to grow by 9% to reach £20.6 billion in 2021 and fully recover to its pre-COVID-19 value in 2024.

No other consumer sector is more exposed to enforced closures and social distancing requirements, and the timing of an end to the latter will be crucial in determining the industry’s pace of recovery. However, since the start of COVID-19, participation in exercising both outdoors and at home has increased significantly, and people are exercising at these locations more regularly, thanks to its accessibility and increase awareness around physical and mental health.

Future Market Trends in Out-Of-Home Leisure 

Increased remote working and a drop in in-bound tourism will remain a challenge for city-based leisure operators into the longer term, who rely so much on commuters and tourists. The economic impact from the pandemic will hit cities the hardest, with operators taking longer to recover, especially when government support comes to an end.

However, the market value of the Out-Of-Home Leisure market is likely to be redistributed towards more suburban areas, meaning potential opportunities for leisure brands to expand their footprint along local high streets and into out-of-town retail parks.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our UK Food and Foodservice market research.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home leisure market and what the sector’s recovery will look like
  • How the pandemic will shape consumers’ behaviour and their future leisure habits
  • What impact COVID-19 will have on consumers’ exercise habits and locations
  • Future demand for live entertainment events and livestreaming alternatives
  • How the pandemic will impact participation in gambling online and in venues

Covered in this report

Brands: PureGym, David Lloyd, National Theatre, Premier League, Ladbrokes, Coral.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by Paul Davies, a leading analyst in the Leisure sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

With leisure activities having been “out of bounds” for so long there is significant pent-up demand for socialising in venues again. Younger consumers, who represent the core audience for most segments, are more keen and are willing to return sooner rather than later. The pace of the market’s recovery, though, will be heavily dependent on when social distancing requirements are completely relaxed and venues and events can return to full capacity.
Paul Davies
Category Director – Leisure, Travel, Foodservice and B2B Research

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • COVID-19: market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
    • Markets covered in this Report
  2. Executive Summary

    • Impact of COVID-19 on out-of-home leisure
      • Figure 1: Short. medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home leisure market, 22 April 2020
    • The market
    • Closures and cancellations result in a 44% fall in sales in 2020
    • Ongoing restrictions and uncertainty mean recovery won’t begin properly until 2022
      • Figure 2: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2015-25
    • The consumer and COVID-19: health and fitness
    • Exercise has become a bigger priority as a result of the pandemic
      • Figure 3: Changes in exercise locations since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
    • Consumers won’t break their newfound habits that easily
      • Figure 4: Anticipated changes in exercise locations after COVID-19, March 2021
    • The consumer and COVID-19: live entertainment
    • Virtual live entertainment attracts a significant audience…
    • …while televised sport brings relief to millions
      • Figure 5: Changes in watching live entertainment/sport since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
    • Pent-up demand for live experiences will be gradually released
      • Figure 6: Anticipated changes in watching live entertainment/sport after COVID-19, March 2021
    • The consumer and COVID-19: gambling
    • COVID-19 accelerates gambling’s migration to online
      • Figure 7: Changes in gambling online since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
    • In-person socialising will be a key motivator for high street gamblers
      • Figure 8: Anticipated changes in gambling after COVID-19, March 2021
    • The consumer: post-COVID-19 leisure habits
    • Consumers are desperate to get out, but safety will remain a priority
      • Figure 9: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, March 2021
  3. Category Winners and Losers

    • Online gambling continues its winning streak
    • Leisure venues lose out to home-based alternatives
    • Gyms feel the pain, but the long-term future is positive
  4. COVID-19 Consumer Timeline

    • Phase 1 – January-March: consumers go into lockdown
    • Phase 2 – March-June: adapting to life in lockdown
      • Figure 10: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and deaths registered as relating to the virus, 31 December-5 November 2020
    • Phase 3: emerging from the initial lockdown
    • Phase 4: rise of the next wave
      • Figure 11: Recorded daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, 30 January 2020-28 March 2021
    • Phase 5: January-March: winter lockdown and vaccine rollout
      • Figure 12: Cumulative number of first and second vaccines delivered in the UK, 10 January-31 March 2021
    • Phase 6: March onwards: the roadmap out of lockdown
  5. The Post-pandemic Outlook for Leisure

    • Focusing on the great outdoors
    • More premium experiences
    • The blurring of online and offline
  6. The Economic Impact

    • A record drop in economic activity…
      • Figure 13: Annual percentage change in GDP, 2007-25 (forecast)
    • …as COVID-19 restrictions caused a severe fall in spending
    • Consumer spending is heavily dependent on the path of the pandemic
      • Figure 14: Household consumption index, 2019-25 (scenario forecasts)
    • Furloughs have saved millions of jobs…
      • Figure 15: Number of employments furloughed, time series, March 2020-February 2021
    • …but unemployment is forecast to rise when state support ends
      • Figure 16: Quarterly unemployment rate, Q1 2008-Q1 2026 (forecast)
    • Under-25s have borne the brunt of COVID-19 job losses
      • Figure 17: Change in number of employees on payroll, by age, February 2021 vs February 2020
  7. Market Size and Performance

    • Impact of COVID-19 on out-of-home leisure
      • Figure 18: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the out-of-home leisure market, 15 April 2020
    • Closures and cancellations result in a 44% fall in sales in 2020
      • Figure 19: Value of the UK out-of-home leisure market, 2015-20
    • Recovery started in Summer 2020, but many people stayed away from venues
    • Vaccine will be a shot in the arm for the experience economy
  8. Market Forecast

    • Ongoing restrictions and uncertainty mean recovery won’t begin properly until 2022
      • Figure 20: UK forecast for the value of the UK out-of-home leisure market, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Structural damage and barriers to big events will delay recovery
  9. COVID-19 Scenario Performance

    • Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
    • Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
    • Pace of recovery highly dependent on when social distancing is relaxed
      • Figure 21: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2015-25
    • Mintel’s rapid recovery scenario indicates a return to pre-COVID sales as soon as the end of 2022
    • COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
      • Figure 22: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the out-of-home leisure market, April 2021
  10. Consumer Concerns over the Impact on Health

    • Exposure anxieties align with case numbers
      • Figure 23: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
    • Exposure anxiety typically higher among over-55s
      • Figure 24: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) towards being exposed to the coronavirus, by age 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
    • Middle-age band fear transmitting virus
  11. Consumer Concerns over the Impact on Lifestyles

    • Concerns about lifestyles impact outweigh exposure fears
    • Consumers react to unprecedented lifestyle restrictions
      • Figure 25: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety and lifestyle impact index, 28 February 2020-12 March 2021
    • Lifestyle impact concerns high across all age groups
      • Figure 26: Proportion of adults indicating higher levels of anxiety (‘4’ or ‘5’) about how the outbreak could impact their lifestyle, by age 28 February 2020-26 March 2021
  12. Impact on Household Finances

    • Financial wellbeing has hit new heights despite the crisis…
      • Figure 27: The financial wellbeing index, January 2015-March 2021
    • …but many still feel worse off than a year ago
      • Figure 28: Changes in household finances, January 2015- March 2021
    • One in six furloughed at least once
    • Increased working at home will require a shift in leisure venue distribution
      • Figure 29: Impact of COVID-19 on employment and working patterns, February 2021
    • Income trends point to a two-track crisis and recovery
    • COVID will further polarise the structure of the health club market
      • Figure 30: Impact of COVID-19 on personal income, February 2021
    • Cuts to discretionary spending have kept household finances afloat…
      • Figure 31: Impact of COVID-19 on household debts, February 2021
    • …and led to a record savings boost
      • Figure 32: Impact of COVID-19 on the value of savings in different products, February 2021
    • Most are optimistic about the year ahead…
      • Figure 33: The financial confidence index, January 2015-March 2021
    • …and looking forward to getting back to experiences
      • Figure 34: Financial priorities when COVID-19 is no longer a concern, February 2021
  13. How the Pandemic Shaped Consumer Behaviour

    • Health comes first…
    • …especially for the leisure industry’s younger customers
      • Figure 35: Changes in consumers’ priorities since the start of the pandemic, February 2021
    • Everyone’s a local – Rebuilding the high street
      • Figure 36: Consumers’ expectations regarding working from home in future, March 2021
    • Confidence in socialising has plummeted
  14. Impact of COVID-19 on Health and Fitness

    • A third of us bought home exercise equipment during the pandemic
      • Figure 37: Changes in exercise locations since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
    • Blended working will need blended fitness clubs
      • Figure 38: Anticipated changes in exercise locations after COVID-19, March 2021
    • Remote working trend will redistribute market value
  15. Impact of COVID-19 on Live Entertainment

    • Virtual live entertainment attracts a significant audience
    • Televised sport brings relief to millions
      • Figure 39: Changes in watching live entertainment/sport since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
    • Pent-up demand for live experiences will be gradually released
      • Figure 40: Anticipated changes in watching live entertainment/sport after COVID-19, March 2021
  16. Impact of COVID-19 on Gambling

    • COVID-19 accelerates gambling’s migration to online
      • Figure 41: Changes in gambling online since the start of COVID-19, March 2021
    • In-person socialising will be a key motivator for high street gamblers
      • Figure 42: Anticipated changes in gambling after COVID-19, March 2021
  17. Post-COVID-19 Leisure Habits

    • Consumers are desperate to get out, but safety will remain a priority
      • Figure 43: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, March 2021
    • The pandemic has reinforced the importance of mental wellbeing
      • Figure 44: Consumers’ post-COVID-19 leisure expectations, by generation, March 2021
    • Fitness enthusiasts will expect gyms to offer more holistic wellbeing services
  18. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • Consumer research methodology
  19. Appendix – Central Forecast Methodology

    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
      • Figure 45: Lower bound, central and upper bound forecast for out-of-home leisure, 2020-25
    • Market drivers and assumptions
      • Figure 46: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2020-24 (prepared 15 April 2021)
    • Forecast methodology
  20. Appendix – COVID Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions

    • Scenario performance
      • Figure 47: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the out-of-home leisure market, 2020-25
    • Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
    • Scenario methodology

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

Market

Mintel provides a range of market information, frequently through the category level, including market size and forecasting, complete with market drivers that illustrate the forces that shape a category or market.

Consumer

Mintel’s proprietary consumer research provides our analysts with the attitudinal and behavioral data used to provide valuable insight to topical issues.

Brand/Company

Mintel provides overviews of the top brands and manufacturers, and uses consumer research to explore attitudes and reactions to brands, as well as insight into what will resonate with consumers.

Data

Market reports provide appendices of data to support the research and insight produced. Our databooks* are easily manipulated and downloadable to support your research needs and covers factors from consumer attitudes to market forecasts.

*databooks not available with UK B2B Industry reports.

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