A return to volume growth is expected in the market in 2025. This follows declines amid steep category inflation in 2023 and weakening consumer sentiment in 2024. Plant-based milk has been harder hit as the pricier segment and amid the scrutiny on UPFs.
The nutritional benefits of milk remain a key means to engage users, playing a notable role in product choice. Opportunities lie in simplifying healthy choices, as 44% of consumers struggle to identify the healthiest milk or cream. This suggests that clearer communication of nutritional benefits can drive growth for the category.
Adding impetus to the need to drive engagement with milk as a nutritional powerhouse are the threats the category faces from seeing its core users and usage occasions decline, with the number of children and sales of tea and breakfast cereals forecast to fall over 2025-30.
Leveraging nutritional benefits’ key role in milk choice remains crucial. Indulgent and exciting flavours hold untapped potential in milk and cream.
Sam Fryers, Research Analyst
Market Definitions
This Report examines the UK retail market for milk, milk drinks and cream, including products sold via doorstop delivery as well as retail outlets. Sales of milk within the catering and industrial sectors, as well as welfare milk supplies, are excluded, though reference may be made to these where relevant.
Mintel’s definition includes:
- White milk: Fresh, ambient and powdered formats. Cow’s milk in all types including semi-skimmed, skimmed, etc, other animal milks such as goat’s milk and non-dairy unflavoured plant-based milk alternatives (eg soya milk, almond milk)
- Cream: Fresh, ambient and aerosol formats
- Flavoured milk: Flavoured animal milk and plant-based milk alternatives, and some fermented milk drinks
Excluded:
- Baby milk
- Fruit juice smoothies made with milk/cream/yogurt where the dairy component is not the major constituent.
Under EU and UK regulation, plant-based products cannot be called by dairy-style names such as milk in marketing or on-pack, with the exceptions of coconut milk and almond milk. However, the term ‘plant-based milk’ was used in the consumer survey for this Report to refer to plant-based milk alternatives, as likely to be best understood by respondents.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Outlook for dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream
- Opportunities
- Help shoppers navigate healthy milk choices
- Recipe prompts can unlock flavoured cream opportunity
- Spotlight tangible benefits to unlock interest in regenerative farming
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THE MARKET
- Snapshot – market size and forecast
- Weak consumer confidence keeps food spend under scrutiny
- Fall in farmgate milk prices in H1 2025
- Graph 1: average monthly farmgate milk price and RPI fresh milk, % change over 12 months, 2020-25
- Sustainability remains pertinent
- Cow’s milk benefits from health interest
- Market size and forecast
- Volume decline, but value growth expected for 2025-30
- Graph 2: retail value forecast for dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2019-30
- All segments return to volume growth in 2025
- Graph 3: retail sales of dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, by type, 2023-25
- Cravendale leads, while leading plant-based milks lose ground
- Graph 4: leading brands’ sales in the retail fresh milk market, by value, 2022/23-2024/25
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THE CONSUMER
- Usage of milk and cream
- Eight in ten use cow’s milk, one third use plant-based milk
- Graph 5: usage of milk*, by type, 2025
- Two thirds of adults use cream
- Graph 6: usage of cream*, by type, 2025
- Leverage milk’s nutritional benefits
- Emphasis on health is key to driving purchase of milk
- Communicate milks’ health benefits more clearly
- High-protein milk has wide appeal
- Brands take differing approaches to communicate milks’ protein content
- Flavour holds further potential in milk drinks and cream
- Explore international flavours in milk drinks
- International flavours appeal particularly to young adults
- Draw inspiration from European sweet treats
- Graph 7: flavour landscape for flavoured milk, 2025
- Explore savoury flavoured variants to build on cream’s role as an ingredient
- Savoury flavoured creams attract interest, but consumers will need guidance here
- Offer recipe prompts for savoury creams at POS
- Scope to mine tangible environmental benefits
- Spotlight tangible environmental benefit to turn ethical interest into action
- Regenerative farming attracts strong interest; few navigate purchase on sustainability
- Outline the advantages of regenerative farming
- Link to health and ethical aspects beyond sustainability
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PRODUCT, INNOVATION AND MARKETING
- Plant-based continues to lose share of launches in 2024
- Graph 8: dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream launches, by segment, 2021-25
- Plant-based milk launches range from elevated health to elevated indulgence
- High-protein launches compete to stand out
- Category-first premix oat milk and new bedtime milk launch in 2025
- Flavoured cream launches continue; dessert flavours attract NPD
- Category advertising spend rose in 2024
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APPENDIX
- Market definition
- The market
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast methodology – fan chart
- Retail sales and forecast for dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream
- Retail sales and forecast of dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream – volumes
- Graph 9: forecast for retail volume sales of dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2020-30
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (values)
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (volumes)
- Market segmentation – values
- Market segmentation – volume
- Trends in the population age structure
- Market share
- Market share – fresh milk – values – brands
- Market share – fresh milk – volumes – brands
- Market share – fresh milk – values – brand owners
- Market share – fresh milk – volumes – brand owners
- Market share – UHT milk – values – brands
- Market share – UHT milk – volumes – brands
- Market share – UHT milk – values – brand owners
- Market share – UHT milk – volumes – brand owners
- Market share – cream – brands
- Market share – cream – brand owners
- Market share – flavoured milk and fermented milk drinks – values – brands
- Market share – flavoured milk and fermented milk drinks – volumes – brands
- The consumer
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology
- Other data source methodologies
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
- Abbreviations
- Abbreviations and terms
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