UK Dairy and Dairy Alternative Drinks, Milk and Cream Market Report 2024
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Report Summary
Stay ahead of the curve and future-proof your business with Mintel’s UK Dairy and Dairy Alternative Drinks, Milk and Cream Market Report 2024. Our full report is packed with consumer-led market intelligence, the latest UK dairy market trends and consumer behaviours affecting your business. Get a 360° view of the dairy and dairy alternatives market, including the UK dairy market size, share and forecasted growth to help you align your business strategy with the needs of your audience.
Below, we’ve handpicked the key insights analysed in the full report and summarised the core topics.
Topics Discussed in the Full Report
- The impact of the income squeeze and improving confidence on milk and cream.
- Trends in launch activity in the dairy and dairy alternatives market, and opportunities for further innovation.
- Usage of different types of cow’s milk and plant-based alternatives, as well as cream.
- Consumer attitudes and behaviours related to the dairy and dairy alternatives market.
- Excluded from this report: baby milk, fermented milk drinks, fruit juice smoothies made with milk/cream/yoghurt.
Dairy and Dairy Alternative Market Outlook
While the income squeeze has benefited cream and flavoured milk as consumers limited dining out, the dominant white milk segment has faced cutbacks, likely linked to people reducing food waste.
In the longer term, rising household incomes will see foodservice and out-of-home occasions regain momentum, which will see UK dairy market volumes fall. taking its toll on the UK dairy market. Improving finances are also expected to see sustainability become more front of mind for consumers, which could benefit the dairy alternatives market while simultaneously dialing up the pressure on the dominant cow’s milk segment to improve its credentials.
- UK dairy market size: In 2024, Mintel estimates that the retail sales of dairy and dairy alternatives, milk and cream reached £5.71 billion.
Dairy and Dairy Alternatives Market Trends and Opportunities
Celebrate dairy milk’s natural nutritionÂ
The spotlight on ultra-processed foods as a health foe extends to milk, cow’s milk often highlighted as minimally processed, and plant-milks as highly processed. Consumers’ strong appreciation of naturalness points to dairy milk’s natural nutritional content as a powerful selling point. Beyond this image helping dairy milk compete with plant-based milk, leaning into it holds potential for it challenge sports nutrition products.
- UK dairy market opportunity: 68% of adults agree that dairy milk is a nutritious drink choice for supporting active lifestyles.
Convincing consumers about green messagingÂ
Sustainability issues are expected to become more front of mind as consumer confidence improves. This looks set to dial up the scrutiny on the dairy industry’s environmental footprint. Promisingly for the UK dairy market, three in five adults agree that farming practices make a meaningful difference to the environmental impact of cow’s milk/cream. This signals strong potential for the category to keep users on side by continuing to explore green initiatives.
Readers of this report may also be interested in our A Year of Innovation in the Dairy and Non-Dairy Market 2024, or our range of Milk and Dairy Market Research.Â
UK Dairy Market Brands Featured in the Report
Arla, Cravendale, Alpro, Oatly, Freshways, Müller Milk & Ingredients, Graham’s, Yeo Valley.
Meet the Expert
Yogita recently joined Mintel as a Cross-category Research Analyst. Prior to that, she worked within the retail industry for more than 20 years in the Merchandising function, where she managed financial budgets, traded the department to hit sales and profit targets, created department strategies alongside the buyers and created numerous reports.
Rising incomes will see switching to foodservice and growing green interest put pressure on the market. Dairy’s natural nutrition stand out as a point of strength.
Yogita Burke
Cross-category Research Analyst
Table of Contents
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Executive Summary
- Opportunities for the dairy and dairy alternatives, milk and cream retail market
- Celebrate dairy milk's natural nutrition to support usage
- Reaffirm cream's role as making a difference to a dish
- Convincing shoppers of meaningful impact is key hurdle for greener products
- Market dynamics and outlook
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- Inflation to drive value growth
- Volumes fall further in 2023 amid price rises and income squeeze
- Graph 1: retail value sales of dairy and dairy alternatives, milk and cream, 2019-24
- Cow's milk volume falls amid income squeeze
- Graph 2: retail sales of white milk, by cow's milk and other, 2022-24
- RTD coffee continues to shine
- Graph 3: retail value sales of flavoured milk, coffee/breakfast drinks and milk modifiers, 2022-24
- Alpro and Oatly capture half of non-cow's white milk
- Graph 4: leading brands' value sales of retail white milk other than cow's, 2021/22-2023/24
- Starbucks extends lead in flavoured milk
- Graph 5: leading brands’ value sales in the UK retail flavoured milk market, 2020-21/-2022/23
- What consumers want and why
- Milk enjoys near-universal usage
- Graph 6: usage of milk*, by type, 2022-24
- Hot drinks and cereal remain top occasions for milk
- Graph 7: occasions when standard cow’s milk and plant-based milk are used, 2024
- Milk being natural is of high importance to most milk users
- Graph 8: behaviours related to milk, 2024
- Cream is seen widely to elevate the taste and make a dish feel special
- Graph 9: attitudes towards dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2024
- Innovation and marketing
- Dairy alternatives lost share of launches in 2023
- Graph 10: product launches in the dairy and dairy alternatives drinks, milk and cream market, 2020-23
- Packaging revamps, flavoured milks and barista variants attract high-profile launches
- Adspend rose in 2023
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Market Dynamics
- Market size
- Volumes fall further in 2023 amid price rises and income squeeze
- Graph 11: retail volume sales of dairy and dairy alternatives, milk and cream, 2019-24
- Graph 12: retail value sales of dairy and dairy alternatives, milk and cream, 2019-24
- Price rises in the category and income squeeze take their toll on milk in 2023
- Market forecast
- Inflation to drive value growth
- Volumes to decline amid improving confidence
- Volume decline ahead
- Inflation will ensure value growth
- Market segmentation
- White milk volume falls amid income squeeze
- Graph 13: retail sales of white milk, by fresh and ambient, 2022-24
- Fresh cow's milk bears the brunt amid rising prices
- Cow's milk continues to dominate white milk
- Graph 14: retail volume sales of white milk, by broad type, 2022-24
- Graph 15: retail value sales of white milk, by broad type, 2022-24
- Pricier milks were hardest hit in 2023
- Cream benefited from home meals in 2023
- Graph 16: retail value sales of cream, by type, 2022-24
- Graph 17: retail volume sales of cream, by type, 2022-24
- Double cream retains lead, falling inflation to hit value in 2024
- RTD coffee continues to shine
- Graph 18: retail value sales of flavoured milk, coffee/breakfast drinks and milk modifiers, 2022-24
- Graph 19: retail value sales of flavoured milk, coffee/breakfast drinks and milk modifiers, 2022-24
- RTD coffee gains share in 2023 by keeping price rises in check
- Market share
- Own-label dominates white cow's milk
- Graph 20: leading brands’ value sales in retail white cow's milk, 2021/22-2023/24
- Arla retains top position in white cow's milk
- Alpro and Oatly capture half of non-cow's white milk
- Graph 21: leading brands' value sales of retail white milk other than cow's, 2021/22-2023/24
- Smaller brands and own-label gain ground…
- …taking their toll on leading brands
- Own-label continues to dominate cream
- Graph 22: leading brands' value sales in UK retail cream market, 2021/22-2023/24
- Starbucks extends lead in flavoured milk
- Graph 23: leading brands’ value sales in the UK retail flavoured milk market, 2020-21/-2022/23
- Emmi, Shaken Udder and FRijj shine
- Macro-economic factors
- Economic output has stagnated since the cost of living crisis began
- Graph 24: GDP, 2021-23
- Falling inflation has reduced pressure on household finances
- Graph 25: CPI inflation rate, 2021-24
- Farmgate milk prices fall during first half of 2023 and then stability, after sharp rises in 2022
- Graph 26: average monthly farmgate milk price, 2019-24
- Retail price of milk remains high
- Graph 27: RPI average retail price of pasteurised milk, 2019-24
- Interest rates expected to fall in 2024, but borrowing pressures will remain
- Food and drink prices still top the list of consumer concerns
- Graph 28: cost of living related issues noticed in the last two months, 2024
- Consumer sentiment: wellbeing is up but the recovery has slowed
- Graph 29: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-24
- Consumer confidence continued to trend upwards
- Graph 30: the financial confidence index, 2016-24
- Improving confidence poses threat to milk and cream
- Social, environmental and legal factors
- Government measures on HFSS food and drink slow to roll out
- HFSS is defined by nutrient profile
- Most sweetened milk drinks are HFSS-compliant
- Strong consumer interest in healthy eating
- Graph 31: how often people try to eat healthily, 2018-24
- Highly processed foods come under scrutiny
- Interest in sustainability to gain ground as income pressures ease
- Two in five worry about greenhouse gases from dairy farming
- Animal welfare concerns impact dairy choices
- M&S reaffirms its commitment to animal welfare
- Dairy contract legislation proposed
- Population growth will support demand for milk
- Graph 32: trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2018-28
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What Consumers Want and Why
- Usage of dairy and dairy alternative drinks and milk
- Milk enjoys near-universal usage
- Graph 33: usage of milk*, by type, 2022-24
- One in three people use plant-based milk
- Usage of dairy milk alternatives is higher among younger adults
- Graph 34: usage of milk* by type, by age group, 2024
- Four in five plant-based milk users also use standard animal milk
- Families are a core audience for lactose-free and plant-based milk
- Graph 35: usage of standard, plant-based and lactose-free milk*, by presence of children in the household, 2024
- Cream usage
- Two in three people use cream
- Graph 36: usage of cream* in the last three months, 2023-24
- Cream usage peaks among under-35s
- Graph 37: usage of cream (net)* in the last three months, by age group, 2024
- Occasions when standard cow’s milk and plant-based milks are used
- Hot drinks and cereal remain top occasions for milk
- Graph 38: occasions when standard plant-based milks are used, 2021 and 2024
- Graph 39: occasions when standard cow’s milk is used, 2021 and 2024
- 'Barista' variants support plant-based milks' suitability for hot drinks
- Many plant-milk users still choose cow's milk
- Strong interest in guidance
- Behaviours related to dairy and dairy alternative milk
- Milk being natural is of high importance to most milk users
- Graph 40: behaviours related to milk, 2024
- Spotlight on processed food extends to plant-based milk…
- …dialing up the importance of 'clean label'
- Celebrate dairy milk's natural nutrition to support usage
- Nearly two in three rate naturalness over nutrition
- Promote dairy milk's natural nutritional benefits to users…
- …and non-users
- Blood sugar gains attention, also in milk
- Graph 41: Google searches for blood sugar, 2022-24
- Three in 10 of those concerned about blood glucose impact drink oat milk
- Leverage image of dairy milk as a nutritious drink to support active lifestyles…
- …to challenge specialist products
- Target under-45s with flavoured milk designed for adults
- Graph 42: agreement with the statement 'Flavoured milk that comes in flavours designed for adults would appeal to me', by age group, 2024
- RTD coffees offer inspiration and competition
- …as do international launches
- International examples offer cues for innovation in flavoured milk
- Attitudes towards dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream
- Cream is seen widely to elevate the taste and make a dish feel special
- Graph 43: attitudes towards dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2024
- Reaffirm cream's role as making a difference to a dish
- Cream benefits from image as making a dish feel special
- Tie-ups with cream can support other categories
- Promote cream's ability to enhance taste
- Butter and stocks offer inspiration
- Target home cooks looking for convenience with savoury cooking cream
- International examples offer cues for savoury flavours in cream
- Convincing shoppers of meaningful impact is key hurdle for greener products
- Three in five think farming practices make a difference to environmental impact of cow's milk/cream
- M&S invests in reducing dairy cows' carbon footprint
- Minority think their milk choices make a difference
- The onus is on greener products to cut through confusion
- Comparable eco scores appeal widely
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Innovation And Marketing Trends
- Launch activity and innovation
- Dairy alternatives lose share of launches in 2023
- Graph 44: product launches in the dairy and dairy alternatives drinks, milk and cream market, 2020-23
- Deliciously Ella and Valio launch plant-based milks
- Flora launches plant cream, Costa introduces oat latte
- Kerry moves into oat and dairy blends
- Fresh oat milk brand Oato secures brick-and-mortar listings
- Flavoured milk attracts indulgent launches…
- …and better-for-you ones
- New packaging accounts for half of launches in 2023
- Graph 45: product launches in the dairy and dairy alternatives drinks, milk and cream market, by launch type, 2020-24
- Alpro revamps to adopt "flavour-packed" design…
- …with various others refreshing their packaging
- Rude Health. Jörd and FRijj update packaging
- Brands expand into new pack sizes
- Uptick in low/reduced sugar launches
- Graph 46: proportion of launches carrying low/no/reduced low/reduced fat/sugar and sugar-free claims, 2020-24
- Lower-sugar cow's milk launches continue
- Crediton launches cholesterol-lowering milk
- Decline in share of launches referencing organic claims
- Graph 47: proportion of launches carrying organic claims, 2020-24
- 'Barista' variants expand in organic…
- …dairy and flavoured variants
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Adspend increases in 2023
- Graph 48: total ATL, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on dairy and dairy alternatives drinks, milk and cream, 2020-24
- Outdoor adspend doubles in 2023
- Graph 49: total ATL, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on dairy and dairy alternatives drinks, milk and cream, by media type, 2020-24
- Oatly offers "free media" to dairy industry to publicise climate footprint
- Arla retains its position as the biggest ATL ad spender in 2023…
- Graph 50: total ATL, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on dairy and dairy alternatives drinks, milk and cream, by top advertisers, 2020-24
- …with spend level on the previous year
- Arla Cravendale draws attention to its 'Free to Graze' cows
- Müller retains its position as second highest ad spender in 2023
- Müller launches masterbrand campaign with the tagline 'Love every bit'
- Yazoo and Chocomel feature new ads in 2024
- Alpro and Flora support new launches in 2024
- Grocers put a spotlight on supplier relationships
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Appendix
- Supplementary data
- Market forecast data and methodology
- Market size and forecast: value
- Market size and forecast: volume
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (value)
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (volume)
- Forecast methodology
- Market segmentation data
- Value sales of white milk, by fresh and longlife
- Volume sales of white milk, by fresh and longlife
- Value sales of white milk, by type
- Volume sales of white milk, by type
- Value sales of cream by type
- Volume sales of cream by type
- Value sales of flavoured milks
- Volume sales of flavoured milks
- Market share data
- Brand value sales of cow's milk (white)
- Brand volume sales of cow's milk (white)
- Manufacturer value sales of cow's milk (white)
- Manufacturer volume sales of cow's milk (white)
- Brand value sales of white milk other than cow's
- Brand volume sales of white milk other than cow's
- Manufacturer value sales of white milk other than cow's
- Manufacturer volume sales of white milk other than cow's
- Brand value sales of cream
- Brand volume sales of cream
- Manufacturer value sales of cream
- Manufacturer volume sales of cream
- Brand value sales of flavoured milk
- Brand volume sales of flavoured milk
- Manufacturer value sales of flavoured milk
- Manufacturer volume sales of flavoured milk
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Abbreviations and terms
- Methodology
- Consumer research methodology
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
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