2021
9
UK Dairy and Dairy Alternatives Market Report 2021
2021-07-14T04:08:22+01:00
OX1046009
2195
140237
[{"name":"Dairy Alternatives","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/food\/vegan-plant-based\/dairy-alternatives"},{"name":"Dairy","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/food\/dairy"}]
Report
en_GB
“The COVID-19 outbreak has reinforced the importance of getting the right nutrition to support overall health, an enduring focus on health expected to be one of the lasting impacts of…

UK Dairy and Dairy Alternatives Market Report 2021

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Description

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the UK Dairy and Non-Dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream market, including the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

The COVID-19 outbreak has reinforced the importance of getting the right nutrition to support overall health, an enduring focus on health expected to be one of the lasting impacts of the pandemic. This points to heightened pertinence for nutrition-centred messages across the food and drink market, including for milk. This extends also to milk with 55% of adults agreeing milks that are naturally nutritious are preferable to fortified ones (eg with added vitamins/protein). This is a potential edge for cow’s milk over plant-based milks, with some potential to win back plant-milk users.

Dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream enjoyed a boost to value and volume sales during 2020 due to lockdowns and stayat-home edicts fuelling a shift from out-of-home meal and hot drink occasions to the home, and cooking and baking enjoying an uptick. However, this boost is expected to wane in 2021 as people slowly return to the workplace/places of study and foodservice venues, the successful vaccine rollout helping people embrace the ‘next normal’. Sales in the market are anticipated to fall by 2.4% by value and 1.5% by volume in 2021 to reach £4.4 billion and 5.6 billion litres.

This return to (a new) normality will see volume sales return to their long-term decline over the next five years, as milk and its key carrier products continue to face intense competition and given the forecast decline in key user age groups. The predicted enduring uptick in working at home will offer limited support for white milk and cream while curbing the high-value OTG occasions for flavoured milk.

The plant-based trend continues to fuel growth in the market, tapping into consumer trends around the environment and conscious consumerism, while also being seen to be healthier: 23% of adults believe that plant-based milk is better for them than cow’s milk. Leading players have also been investing in NPD and advertising support, helping to drive growth. However, cost concerns do exist, with 50% of adults agreeing that high prices make buying plant-based milk unappealing. Meanwhile, doubts over taste are also evident, with 72% of users/buyers thinking cow’s milk tastes better than plant-based milks.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our UK Drinks market research.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market.
  • Types and variants of dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream used.
  • Launch activity and future product development opportunities.
  • Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream.

Covered in this report

Brands: Arla (Lactofree, JÖRD), Cravendale, Oatly, Elmlea, Rodda,Starbucks, Yazoo, Nestlé (Wunda), Emmi (Beleaf), Alpro, Tropicana, Freshways, Muller Milk & Ingredients, Graham’s Family Dairy, Pensworth.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Amy Price, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The COVID-19 outbreak has reinforced the importance of getting the right nutrition to support overall health, an enduring focus on health expected to be one of the lasting impacts of the pandemic. This points to heightened pertinence for nutrition-centred messages across the food and drink market, including for milk, with 55% of adults agreeing milks that are naturally nutritious are preferable to fortified ones (eg with added vitamins/protein). This is a potential edge for cow’s milk over plant-based milks, with some potential to win back plant-milk users, this segment continuing to see robust growth.
Amy Price
Senior Food and Drink

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • COVID-19: Market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
    • Products covered in this Report
  2. Executive Summary

    • Impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream
      • Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, 18 June 2021
    • The market
    • Market size and forecast
      • Figure 2: Value forecast for the retail dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, 2016-26
    • Fresh milk still dominates; non-cow’s milk continues to flourish
      • Figure 3: Retail value sales of white milk, by type, 2019 and 2020
    • All types of cream see sales rise
    • Flavoured milk hit by loss of OTG occasions
    • Companies and brands
    • Arla leads in milk; Cravendale receiving a boost from COVID-19
      • Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail white milk^ market, 2020-21
    • Elmlea leads in cream; Rodda’s sees strong growth
    • Starbucks leads in flavoured milk despite loss of OTG occasions
    • Plant-based drinks continue to dominate NPD
    • Adspend drops in 2020; Arla remains the biggest spender
    • The consumer
    • Milk usage is almost universal, at 98% of adults
      • Figure 5: Usage of milk, by type, 2020 and 2021
    • In hot drinks and on cereal are the most popular occasions for using milk
      • Figure 6: Occasions when standard cow’s milk and plant-based milks are used, 2021
    • Sustainable farming would provide an incentive to pay more
      • Figure 7: Behaviours relating to dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, 2021
    • Natural nutrients appeal over fortification
      • Figure 8: Attitudes towards dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, 2021
  3. Issues and Insights

    • Sustainability rises on consumers’ radars in the wake of COVID-19
    • Waste reduction becomes more front-of-mind
    • Natural nutrients appeal over fortification
    • On-trend flavour innovation would spur purchasing in flavoured milks
  4. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • Market benefits from uplift from COVID-19 in 2020
    • 2021 sales set to fall as COVID boost wanes
    • Market largely set to return to pre-pandemic long-term decline
    • Fresh milk still dominates; non-cow’s milk continues to flourish
    • All types of cream see sales rise
    • Flavoured milk hit by loss of OTG occasions
  5. Market Size and Performance

    • Impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream
      • Figure 9: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, 18 June 2021
    • Market benefits from uplift from COVID-19 in 2020
      • Figure 10: Retail value and volume sales of dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, 2015-20
  6. Market Forecast

    • 2021 sales set to fall as COVID boost wanes
      • Figure 11: Value forecast for the retail dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, 2016-26
      • Figure 12: Volume forecast for the retail dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, 2016-26
    • Market largely set to return to pre-pandemic levels and the preceding long-term decline
      • Figure 13: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25
    • Forecast methodology
  7. COVID-19 Scenario Performance

    • Mintel’s approach to predicting the impact of COVID-19
    • Fundamental differences in how COVID-19 is affecting consumer markets
    • The risk of vaccine-resistant strains of COVID-19 adds uncertainty
      • Figure 14: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the retail dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by value, 2016-26
      • Figure 15: COVID-19 scenario forecasts for the retail dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by volume, 2016-26
    • A small sales difference between Mintel’s rapid COVID recovery and extended COVID disruption scenarios in 2021
    • A setback to the vaccination programme could extend social distancing into 2022
    • Mintel’s rapid recovery scenario indicates a return to pre-COVID sales by the end of 2022
    • COVID-19 market disruption: risks and outcomes
      • Figure 16: Summary of Mintel scenario expectations and the impact on the retail dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, June 2021
  8. Market Segmentation

    • Fresh milk still dominates; long-life milk receives a stronger COVID-19 boost
      • Figure 17: Retail value sales of white milk, by fresh and long-life, 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 18: Retail volume sales of white milk, by fresh and long-life, 2019 and 2020
    • Filtered cow’s milk performs strongly as people shop less often
    • Non-cow’s milk continues to flourish, oat milk performing well
      • Figure 19: Retail value sales of white milk, by type, 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 20: Retail volume sales of white milk, by type, 2019 and 2020
    • All types of cream see sales rise
      • Figure 21: Retail value sales of cream, by type, 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 22: Retail volume sales of cream, by type, 2019 and 2020
    • Flavoured milk hit by loss of OTG occasions
      • Figure 23: Retail value sales of flavoured milk, dairy smoothies, milk modifiers and breakfast and coffee drinks, 2019 and 2020
      • Figure 24: Retail volume sales of flavoured milk, dairy smoothies, milk modifiers and breakfast and coffee drinks, 2019 and 2020
  9. Market Drivers

    • Real incomes bounce back after COVID-19 plummet
      • Figure 25: Annual percentage change in CPI and AWE (regular pay), monthly basis, January 2018-March 2021
    • Unemployment set to peak in 2021
    • Farmgate prices creep up at the end of 2020
    • Price rises curbed following Brexit
    • Environmental awareness surrounding plant-based diets grows
    • Drop in children poses a challenge to the market
      • Figure 26: Trends in UK population, by age, 2015-20 and 2020-25
  10. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Arla leads in milk; Cravendale receiving a boost from COVID-19
    • Elmlea leads in cream; Rodda’s sees strong growth
    • Starbucks leads in flavoured milk despite loss of OTG occasions
    • Plant-based drinks continue to dominate NPD
    • Adspend drops in 2020; Arla remains the biggest spender
  11. Market Share

    • Arla continues to lead in milk, with Cravendale receiving a boost from COVID-19
    • Oatly sees fastest rise as plant-based trend continues
      • Figure 27: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail white milk^ market, 2018/19-2020/21
    • Elmlea leads in cream; Rodda’s sees strong growth
      • Figure 28: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cream market, 2018/19-2020/21
    • Starbucks leads in flavoured milk despite loss of OTG occasions
      • Figure 29: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail flavoured milk market, 2018/19-2020/21
  12. Launch Activity and Innovation

    • Plant-based drinks continue to dominate NPD
      • Figure 30: New dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream launches in the UK, by category, 2017-21
      • Figure 31: Aldi expands plant-based drinks with Actileaf sub-brand, 2021
    • New brands enter the plant-based market
    • Nestlé to bring plant-based milk alternative Wunda to the UK
    • Emmi unveils Beleaf
    • Alpro targets tea occasions with My Cuppa variant
    • JÖRD debuts in UK market
      • Figure 32: JÖRD Nordic Organic and Good Hemp highlight versatility on-pack, 2020 and 2021
    • Linda McCartney expands beyond meat-free with plant-based milk launch
    • Amazon enters market with The Dairy line
      • Figure 33: NPD from Amazon in milk and cream, 2021
    • Oatly expands into cream with whippable launch
    • Fortified claims tap into interest in health
    • Immunity support is highlighted as a selling point
      • Figure 34: NPD featuring immunity support claims, 2020 and 2021
    • Flavoured milk players look to indulgence
      • Figure 35: NPD in flavoured milk, 2020-21
    • Weetabix looks to caffeine to boost breakfast drinks
    • Environmental claims increase driven by increased consumer interest
    • Morrisons brings back glass bottles for milk in a trial
    • Yazoo debuts 100% recycled packaging and moves into cans
    • Free-range milk appeals
      • Figure 36: Yeo Valley launches a free-range milk, 2020
    • Vending machines cater to interest in buying local
  13. Advertising and Marketing Activity

    • Adspend drops in 2020
      • Figure 37: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on milk, milk drinks and cream, by media type, 2019-21
    • Arla leads spend
    • Cravendale pushes its “It’s not milk” campaign
    • Arla also supports BOB and Lactofree
      • Figure 38: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on milk, milk drinks and cream, by advertiser, 2019-21
    • AHDB focuses on togetherness and supporting mental health with “Milk your moments” campaign
    • ‘Milk moustached’ celebs return in Alpro’s playful new campaign
    • Oatly debuts TV ad that targets the generation divide in usage of dairy substitutes
    • Rodda’s launches radio campaign and “Bake Your Wonderful” promotion
      • Figure 39: Rodda’s launches on-pack promotion, 2020
    • Yazoo sponsors TV show
    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
  14. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • Sustainability rises on consumers’ radars
    • Openness to sustainable messages from dairy
    • On-trend flavour innovation would spur purchasing in flavoured milks
    • Natural nutrients appeal over fortification
  15. Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviour

    • Online and local shopping boosted by COVID-19
    • Other alternative channels and less frequent shopping see a boost
    • Health becomes more of a priority in the wake of the pandemic
    • COVID-19 to mark a step-change in working habits…
    • …driving more food and drink occasions at home
    • COVID-19 drives up cooking and baking
    • Sustainability rises on consumers’ radars
    • Environment becomes a higher priority for one in four
    • Plant-based trend will continue to flourish
    • Food waste gains attention
  16. Usage of Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

    • Milk usage is almost universal, at 98% of adults
      • Figure 40: Usage of milk, by type, 2020 and 2021
    • 25-44s drive usage of plant-based milk
    • Minority use both animal milk and lactose/plant-based milk
      • Figure 41: Crossover in usage of any standard animal milk and lactose-free/plant-based milk, 2021
    • Semi-skimmed remains most popular…
    • …filtered appeals to those stocking up
      • Figure 42: Usage of milk, dairy drinks and non-dairy alternatives, by variety, 2021
    • Younger people drive cream usage
      • Figure 43: Usage of cream, by type, 2021
  17. Occasions when Milk/Plant-based Milks Are Used

    • In hot drinks and on cereal are the most popular occasions for using milk
      • Figure 44: Occasions when standard cow’s milk and plant-based milks are used, 2021
    • Plant-based milks need to do more to push usage with hot drinks…
    • …and with cereals
    • Cooking/baking occasion boosted by the pandemic
    • Spotlight on nutrients can help plant-based milks push usage in a smoothie
  18. Behaviours Relating to Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

    • Sustainable farming would provide an incentive to pay more…
    • Openness to sustainable messages from dairy
      • Figure 45: Behaviours relating to dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, 2021
    • Opportunity for organic and carbon-neutral
    • Sustainability of plant-based deserves spotlighting
    • …so too would free-range cow’s milk, with 50% willing to pay more
      • Figure 46: Yeo Valley’s free-range milk, 2021
    • On-trend flavour innovation would spur purchasing in flavoured milks
  19. Attitudes towards Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

    • Natural nutrients appeal over fortification…
      • Figure 47: Attitudes towards dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream, 2021
    • …offering a potential edge for cow’s milk to call out naturally nutritious proposition
      • Figure 48: Cow’s milk highlighting its natural nutrition, 2021
    • Still a role for fortified milk brands
    • Environmental factors can win over users in milk
    • Waste reduction becomes more front-of-mind
      • Figure 49: Onken yogurt featuring “See, smell taste” logo, 2021
    • 50% agree milk choices have an effect on the environment
    • Tangibility and focus on cumulative effect can strengthen views of impact
      • Figure 50: Oatly references carbon footprint on the side of packaging, 2020
      • Figure 51: Agreement with the statement “People’s milk choices make a difference to the environment” – CHAID – Tree output, 2021
    • High prices are a put-off for plant-based milk
    • Cow’s milk has the edge on taste
  20. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • Consumer research methodology
  21. Appendix – Central Forecast Methodology

    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
      • Figure 52: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK value sales of dairy and non-dairy, milk and cream, 2021-26
      • Figure 53: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK volume sales of dairy and non-dairy, milk and cream, 2021-26
    • Market drivers and assumptions
      • Figure 54: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2021-26
    • Forecast methodology
  22. Appendix – COVID Scenario Performance Methodology and Assumptions

    • Scenario performance
      • Figure 55: Scenario performance for value retail sales of dairy and non-dairy, milk and cream, 2016-26
      • Figure 56: Scenario performance for volume retail sales of dairy and non-dairy, milk and cream, 2016-26
    • Rapid COVID recovery, central and extended COVID disruption scenarios outline
    • Scenario methodology
  23. Appendix – Market Share

      • Figure 57: Leading brand owners’ value and volume sales and shares in the retail white milk^ market, 2018/19-2020/21
      • Figure 58: Leading brand owners’ value and volume sales and shares in the retail cream market, 2018/19-2020/21
      • Figure 59: Leading brand owners’ value and volume sales and shares in the retail flavoured milk market, 2018/19-2020/21
  24. Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

      • Figure 60: New product launches in the UK dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by claim category, 2017-21
      • Figure 61: New product launches in the UK dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by ethical/environmental claims, 2017-21
      • Figure 62: New product launches in the UK dairy and non-dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by top 10 claims, 2017-21
  25. Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity

      • Figure 63: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on milk, milk drinks and cream, by category, 2019-21
  26. Appendix – Usage of Dairy and Non-dairy Drinks, Milk and Cream

      • Figure 64: Usage of chilled or non-chilled cow’s milk, 2021

Why Mintel?

Gain access to high quality market research with every purchase of Mintel’s consumer reports. Here's what else you can expect when buying from us:

Mintel’s Clients Portal

After your purchase is completed, you’ll receive an invitation to join Mintel’s Clients Portal which provides instant access to supplementary insights from Mintel’s industry experts.

Multiple Report Formats

Mintel’s reports are available in PDF and PPT formats, and arrive in your inbox alongside an excel datasheet, so you can share Mintel’s market intelligence with ease.

Interactive Databook

Mintel’s bespoke consumer data is presented as an interactive website, so you can deep dive into your chosen topic, explore demographics and download specific statistics.

Custom Presentations

Using Mintel’s custom presentation tool, you can easily incorporate selected research data and analysis into a tailor-made presentation to win over clients and stakeholders.

Browse our sample report below:

Click to show report
2024 Sample Consumer Cover

Please Note: This is a sample report. All of the figures, graphs, and tables have been redacted.

Trusted by companies. Big and small.

Want to speak to us directly?

Contact us with your enquiry and our expert global team can help.

Get in touch