2022
9
UK Dairy and Dairy Alternative Drinks, Milk and Cream Market Report 2022
2022-07-02T04:02:50+01:00
OX1144221
2195
152614
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Report
en_GB
“At a time when the rapidly rising cost of living is weighing on consumers’ minds, milk producers are also facing an uphill battle due to rising costs, these feeding through…

UK Dairy and Dairy Alternative Drinks, Milk and Cream Market Report 2022

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Description

The UK Dairy and Dairy Alternatives Drinks, Milk and Cream Market Report identifies consumer attitudes related to dairy and dairy alternatives, the impact of rising inflation and future developments within the UK dairy market and plant-based dairy market. This report covers the UK dairy market size, market forecast, market segmentation and UK dairy market trends.

 

Current Landscape of the UK Dairy and Dairy Alternatives Market

Inflation has already had a heavy impact on the production cost of the UK dairy market, with the rising prices of fertiliser, animal feed and fuel all biting into profit margins.

Milk’s position as a staple of grocery lists and a yardstick for price comparisons in consumers’ choice of supermarket has often seen the grocers look to avoid passing on producer price rises. However, the escalating costs are beyond what the UK dairy market can absorb, with the price paid at the till already rising sharply.

 

UK Dairy Market Share and Key Industry Trends

As inflation eases and consumers’ real spending power returns to growth, more meal occasions will move to out of home, reducing the demand for milk and cream through retail. However, growing on-the-go occasions will benefit flavoured milk in the UK dairy market.

  • UK dairy market size: The rising costs of producing milk began to accelerate the retail price of milk, contributing to an estimated value growth of £5.6 billion for 2022.
  • UK dairy alternative market size: Plant-based milk continued to post strong growth in 2021 even as cow’s milk sales fell.
  • UK dairy alternative market share: Half of the UK dairy market launches came from plant-based drinks in 2021.
  • 45% of UK consumers agree that milk products that are transparent about their impact on the environment are more appealing than others.

 

UK Dairy and Dairy Alternatives Market: Future Trends

The growing societal spotlight on sustainability remains a big threat to the UK dairy market’s largest segment, cow’s milk, which is facing increasing scrutiny for its impact on the environment. Sustainability is also fueling greater demand in the plant-based dairy market. However, the question remains whether dairy producers can adapt fast enough to protect sales and abide by long-term carbon net zero targets.

To discover more about the UK Dairy and Dairy Alternative Drinks, Milk and Cream Market Report 2022, read our UK Cheese Market Report 2022, or take a look at our extensive Dairy Market Research.

 

Quickly Understand

  • Impact of recovery from COVID-19 and effect of the income squeeze on the UK dairy and dairy alternative market.
  • Usage of dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream.
  • Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to UK dairy market and plant-based dairy market products.
  • Explores UK dairy market size, dairy alternative market share, and dairy alternative market size.

 

Covered in this Report

Brands: Isola, Innocent, Cravendale, Alpro (Danone), Oatly, Arla (ancor), Yeo Valley, Graham’s Organic, Freshways, Britvic, Medina Dairy, Lactofree, Müller Milk (FRijj), Rodda’s, Elmlea, Starbucks, Yazoo, Emmi, Shaken Udder, Arctic Coffee, Mars, Dunn’s River, Delamere Dairy, Tildam Linda McCartney, Wunda, Dug, Lilk, Plantopia, Good Hemp, Violife, Morrisons, M&S, Waitrose, Costcutter.

Products: White milk (fresh, ambient and powdered formats), plant-based milk alternatives (soya milk, almond milk), cream (fresh, ambient and aerosol formats), flavoured milk, milk flavourings.

 

Expert Analysis from a Specialist in the UK Dairy Market

This report, written by Angharad Goode, a leading analyst in the food sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the UK dairy and dairy alternative market and add expert context to the numbers.

At a time when the rapidly rising cost of living is weighing on consumers’ minds, milk producers are also facing an uphill battle due to rising costs, these feeding through to sharp rises in retail prices. Looking to the future, sustainability presents the UK dairy market with both a threat and an area of opportunity for innovation.”

Angharad Goode - Research Analyst

Angharad Goode
Research Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Market context
    • Products covered in this Report
  2. Executive Summary

    • The five-year outlook for dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream
      • Figure 1: Category outlook, 2022-27
    • The market
    • Rising prices to fuel value growth with volumes to inch down
      • Figure 2: Market forecast for UK retail value sales of dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2017-27
    • White milk value sales hold steady as plant-based milk’s growth offsets cow’s milk’s decline
      • Figure 3: Retail value and volume sales of white milk, by cow’s and other, 2019-21
    • Companies and brands
    • Own-label retains dominance in white milk
      • Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail white milk^ market, 2019/20-2021/22
    • Plant-based drinks continue to lead launches
      • Figure 5: New dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream launches in the UK, by category, 2018-22
    • A sharp rise in adspend in 2021
    • The consumer
    • Cow’s milk retains top spot
    • Usage of dairy alternatives lags behinds views of them as environmental
      • Figure 6: Behaviours related to dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2022
    • Taste perceptions link closely with usage
      • Figure 7: Qualities associated with cow’s milk and selected plant-based milks, by type, 2022
    • Environmental transparency could grow appeal of milks
      • Figure 8: Attitudes towards dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2022
  3. Issues and Insights

    • Role as an essential will protect milk amidst rising cost of living
    • Strong desire for understanding environmental impact and benefits
    • Plant milks struggle with nutrition image
  4. Market Size and Performance

    • Rising prices propel value growth even as volumes fall
      • Figure 9: UK retail value and volume sales of dairy and dairy alternative, milk and cream, 2017-22
  5. Market Forecast

    • Sustainability will be a key long-term influence
      • Figure 10: Category outlook, 2022-27
    • Rising prices to fuel value growth with volumes to inch down
      • Figure 11: Market forecast for UK retail value sales of dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2017-27
      • Figure 12: Market forecast for UK retail volume sales of dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2017-27
    • Market drivers and assumptions
      • Figure 13: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2016-26
    • Forecast methodology
  6. Market Segmentation

    • White milk value sales hold steady
      • Figure 14: Retail value and volume sales of white milk, by fresh and long-life, 2019-21
    • Plant-based milk enjoys further strong growth, oat milk extends its lead
      • Figure 15: Retail value and volume sales of white milk, by type, 2019-21
    • Cream sales dip in 2021
      • Figure 16: Retail value and volume sales of cream, by type, 2019-21
    • Flavoured milk benefits from greater freedoms in 2021
      • Figure 17: Retail value and volume sales of flavoured milk, dairy smoothies, milk modifiers and breakfast and coffee drinks, 2019-21
  7. Market Drivers

    • Farmgate price of milk rises sharply
      • Figure 18: United Kingdom farmgate milk price, January 2017-February 2022
      • Figure 19: Average retail price of pasteurised milk, January 2017-February 2022
    • Decline of child population will curb milk’s volume growth
      • Figure 20: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2016-21 and 2021-26
    • COVID-19 adds to the focus on sustainability
    • The conflict in Ukraine will hurt the UK economy
    • GDP reached pre-pandemic levels in November 2021…
    • …but the post-COVID-19 bounce-back will be followed by a period of slower growth
    • Employment has held up better than expected
    • Inflation is the key concern for 2022 for consumers, brands and the economy
    • Consumers’ financial wellbeing has slipped from its recent high point…
      • Figure 21: Household financial wellbeing index, 2016-22
    • …and concerns over inflation are coming to the fore
  8. Market Share

    • Own-label retains dominance in white milk
      • Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail white milk^ market, 2019/20-2021/22
    • Plant milk brands invest in production
    • Alpro upgrades plant but sales struggle
    • Oatly enjoys strong growth and plans a major oat milk factory
    • Britvic moves into plant milk
    • Freshways and Medina Dairy merger approved
    • Elmlea retains top position in cream
      • Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cream market, 2019/20-2021/22
    • Starbucks extends its lead in flavoured milk
      • Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail flavoured milk market, 2019/20-2021/22
  9. Launch Activity and Innovation

    • Plant-based drinks continue to lead launches
      • Figure 25: New dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream launches in the UK, by category, 2018-22
    • Cow’s milk alternatives continue flurry of launches
    • Alpro expands plant ‘milk’ offerings, new players enter
      • Figure 26: Milk alternative product launches, 2022
    • Blended plant milks attract NPD
      • Figure 27: Blended milk alternative product launches, 2021
    • Plant-based cream products explored by Violife and Coconut Collaborative
      • Figure 28: Violife Viocreme plant-based cream, 2021
    • Yeo Valley expands crème fraîche for puds, enters flavoured milk
      • Figure 29: Yeo Valley cream and flavoured milk, 2021
    • Starbucks expands at-home range
    • Supermarkets focus on packaging
    • Morrisons debuts cartons for own-label cow’s milk, scraps ‘use by’ dates
    • Waitrose to trial clear caps, moves to free-range; Iceland promotes Healthy Start
      • Figure 30: M&S RSPCA Assured British skimmed milk, 2021
  10. Advertising and Marketing Activity

    • A sharp rise in adspend in 2021
    • Arla Foods focuses on out-of-home marketing for Jörd…
    • …and recruits Ricky Wilson to promote Lactofree’s ‘planet-friendlier’ carton
      • Figure 31: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, by brand, 2020-February 2022, sorted by 2021
    • Cravendale promotes Food Waste Action Week
    • Alpro shares the secret to helping the planet
    • Oatly launches biggest campaign to date
    • AHDB debuts TV advert first
    • Emmi announces partnership with Love Island
    • Starbucks hopes to help farmers reduce emissions
    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
  11. Usage of Dairy, Dairy Alternative Drinks and Cream

    • Cow’s milk retains top spot
    • Almost one in three use plant milk
      • Figure 32: Usage of milk, by type, 2022
    • Crossover between types is prevalent
      • Figure 33: Usage repertoire of milk, 2022
    • Semi-skimmed remains most used milk
      • Figure 34: Usage of milk, dairy drinks and dairy alternative drinks, by variety, 2021 and 2022
    • Cream usage drops as restrictions ease
      • Figure 35: Usage of cream, by type, 2021 and 2022
  12. Behaviours Related to Dairy and Dairy Alternative Drinks, Milks and Cream

    • Understanding the environmental benefits would win over 36% to plant-based milk
    • Usage of dairy alternatives lags behinds views of them as environmental
      • Figure 36: Behaviours related to dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2022
    • Brands tout their sustainability
    • Smaller packs could encourage plant milk trial
  13. Qualities Associated with Milks by Type

    • Cow’s milk enjoys strong image on taste
    • Taste perceptions link closely with usage
      • Figure 37: Qualities associated with cow’s milk and selected plant milks, by type, 2022
      • Figure 38: Usage of cow’s and plant-based milk, by perceptions that cow’s milk and any plant-based milks taste good, 2022
    • Taste warrants focus in marketing
      • Figure 39: Isola Bio Oat Drink and Innocent Coconut Dairy Free Drink highlight flavour on-pack, 2022
    • Plant-based milks lag on nutrition image
  14. Attitudes towards Dairy and Dairy Alternative Drinks, Milk and Cream

    • Half of consumers interested in milk refill machines
    • Supermarket milk refills spark interest, availability is low
      • Figure 40: Attitudes towards dairy and dairy alternative drinks, milk and cream, 2022
    • Convenience stands to pose a barrier to refills and cartons
    • Environmental transparency could grow appeal of milk products
    • Transparency on environmental impact appeals even to the unconcerned
    • Room to go beyond established claims
      • Figure 41: Dairy milk launches with environmentally-friendly product-related claims, 2020-22
  15. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • Consumer research methodology
  16. Appendix – Forecast Methodology

    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
      • Figure 42: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK retail value sales of dairy and dairy alternative, milk and cream, 2022-27
      • Figure 43: Market forecast and prediction intervals for UK retail volume sales of dairy and dairy alternative, milk and cream, 2022-27
      • Figure 44: Market size and forecast for UK retail value and volume sales of dairy and dairy alternative, milk and cream, 2017-27
    • Market drivers and assumptions
    • Forecast methodology
  17. Appendix – Market Share

      • Figure 45: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK retail white milk^ market, 2019/20-2021/22
      • Figure 46: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK retail cream market, 2019/20-2021/22
      • Figure 47: Leading brand owners’ value and volume sales and shares in the retail flavoured milk market, 2019/20-2021/22

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