Sales of desserts by volume have resumed their pre-COVID-19 decline, exacerbated in 2023 by the income squeeze and HFSS product location restrictions. Premium products will gain in 2024 and after from a ‘quality over quantity’ mindset given that high-quality ingredients, indulgence and visual appeal are important purchase drivers. There will also be some limited scope in 2024 and beyond for healthier variants to grow sales.
Desserts will continue to face intense competition for the after-dinner occasion. Fewer people chose desserts for this occasion in 2023 than 2019, along with yogurt/fromage frais. However, their permissibility and affordability will support sales. Consumer interest in brand extensions points to potential for established dessert brands to extend to other treats popular for this occasion, or for other familiar treat brands to find favour in desserts.
Products that evoke childhood memories and nostalgia continue to hold strong potential in this category, given that 70% of eaters and buyers agree that eating desserts that remind you of your childhood feels comforting. Avenues for tapping into this range from authentically traditional desserts, to classic flavours for new desserts, and new twists for classic or retro desserts.
Dessert sales have declined despite their being seen as permissible and affordable. Seasonal, high-protein and plant-based desserts hold further potential.
Richard Caines, Principal Analyst, UK Food & Drink Research
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