Sales of desserts by volume have resumed their pre-COVID-19 decline, exacerbated in 2023 by the income squeeze and HFSS product location restrictions. Premium products will gain in 2024 and after from a ‘quality over quantity’ mindset given that high-quality ingredients, indulgence and visual appeal are important purchase drivers. There will also be some limited scope in 2024 and beyond for healthier variants to grow sales.
Desserts will continue to face intense competition for the after-dinner occasion. Fewer people chose desserts for this occasion in 2023 than 2019, along with yogurt/fromage frais. However, their permissibility and affordability will support sales. Consumer interest in brand extensions points to potential for established dessert brands to extend to other treats popular for this occasion, or for other familiar treat brands to find favour in desserts.
Products that evoke childhood memories and nostalgia continue to hold strong potential in this category, given that 70% of eaters and buyers agree that eating desserts that remind you of your childhood feels comforting. Avenues for tapping into this range from authentically traditional desserts, to classic flavours for new desserts, and new twists for classic or retro desserts.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Performance of the market, including the impact of the rising cost of living and the introduction of HFSS product location restrictions on sales of desserts.
- Key trends in recent launch activity and future product development opportunities.
- Attributes looked for in a dessert product for different occasions, including as a snack, after an everyday/weeknight meal, on a weekend, at a dinner party or for a celebration.
- Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to desserts, including permissibility from a balanced diet perspective and affordability.
- Usage of selected brands and attitudes towards them.
Dessert sales have declined despite their being seen as permissible and affordable. Seasonal, high-protein and plant-based desserts hold further potential.
Richard Caines, Principal Analyst, UK Food & Drink Research
Collapse All
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- Key issues covered in this Report
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Executive Summary
- Opportunities for the desserts market
- Market dynamics and outlook
- Graph 1: value retail sales of desserts, by segment, 2021-23
- Graph 2: leading brands’ sales in the chilled desserts market, by value, 2020/21-2022/23
- Graph 3: leading brands’ sales in the ambient desserts market, by value, 2020/21-2022/23
- Graph 4: leading brands’ sales in the frozen desserts market, by value, 2020/21-2022/23
- Graph 5: how often people try to eat healthily, 2018-22
- Graph 6: trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2018-28
- What consumers want and why
- Graph 7: food and drink typically eaten/drunk after the main course or dish of a meal, 2023
- Graph 8: frequency of eating desserts and dessert toppings in the last three months, by type, 2020 and 2023
- Graph 9: attributes looked for in a dessert product, by occasion, 2023
- Graph 10: behaviours related to eating and buying desserts, 2023
- Graph 11: attitudes towards desserts, 2023
- Innovation and marketing
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Market Dynamics
- Market size
- Graph 12: retail sales of desserts, by volume, 2018-23
- Graph 13: retail sales of desserts, by value, 2018-23
- Market forecast
- Graph 14: total retail volume and value sales of desserts, 2010-14
- Market segmentation
- Market share
- Macroeconomic factors
- Graph 15: GDP, 2021-23
- Graph 16: CPI inflation rate, 2021-23
- Graph 17: “Have you been affected by any of these issues over the last two months? Please select all that apply.”, 2023
- Graph 18: consumer price food inflation, 2022-23
- Graph 19: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-23
- Graph 20: the financial confidence index, 2016-23
- Social, environmental and legal factors
- Graph 21: how often people try to eat healthily, 2018-22
- Graph 22: trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2018-28
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What Consumers Want and Why
- Food and drink eaten after the main course/dish of a meal
- Graph 23: food and drink typically eaten/drunk after the main course or dish of a meal, 2023
- Graph 24: number of types of food/drink typically eaten/drunk after main course/meal, 2023
- Usage of desserts
- Graph 25: frequency of eating desserts and dessert toppings in the last three months, by type, 2020 and 2023
- Graph 26: eating of desserts and dessert toppings at least once a week in the last three months, by type, 2023
- Where desserts are bought
- Graph 27: where desserts are bought in the last three months, 2023
- Attributes looked for in a dessert by occasion
- Graph 28: attributes looked for in a dessert product, by occasion, 2023
- Graph 29: looking for 150 calories or less from a dessert product, by occasion and age, 2023
- Behaviours related to eating and buying desserts
- Graph 30: behaviours related to eating and buying desserts, 2023
- Graph 31: “I would like all supermarket dine-in meal deals to come with the option of a dessert”, by where desserts bought, 2023
- Graph 32: making desserts at home and interest in DIY dessert kits, by age, 2023
- Attitudes towards desserts
- Graph 33: attitudes towards desserts, 2023
- Graph 34: agreement with the statement ‘having a dessert is a low-cost way to boost your mood’, 2023
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Innovation And Marketing Trends
- Launch activity and innovation
- Graph 35: launches in the UK desserts market, by sub-category, 2018-23
- Graph 36: launches in the UK desserts market making vegetarian, vegan/no animal ingredients and plant-based claims, 2018-23
- Graph 37: launches in the UK desserts market making better-for-you claims, 2023
- Graph 38: launches in the UK desserts market, by average sugar content, 2015-23
- Graph 39: launches in the UK desserts market, by selected flavour components, 2018-23
- Graph 40: launches in UK desserts market making premium, seasonal and limited edition claims, 2018-23
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Graph 41: total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising spend on desserts, by media type, 2019-23
- Graph 42: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising spend on desserts, by advertiser, 2021-23
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Brand Research
- Graph 43: eating of dessert brands in the last 12 months, by age, 2023
- Graph 44: Image of selected brands on being accessible or exclusive, 2023
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Appendix
- Supplementary data
- Market forecast data and methodology
- Report scope and definitions
- Methodology
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