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- UK House Building Market Report 2023
Stay informed and secure future growth for your business with Mintel’s UK House Building Market Report 2023. Our full report is packed with in-depth market analysis, including market size and performance, and company profiles of the industry leaders.
Below, we’ve handpicked the key insights analysed in the full report and summarised the core topics.
Key Topics Covered in this Report
- How the housing market recovered from the pandemic and how it is now reacting to the cost of living crisis and constantly increased interest rates and mortgage levels.
- The implications for the sector going forward, and how the sector previously recovered from similar circumstances
- How net zero targets are influencing the sector and the marketing advantages that arise
- The fragmentation of the industry in total, despite the role of several national and regional major house builders.
- The emerging opportunities for SMEs through repurposing vacant commercial properties.
UK House Building Market – Current Overview
The market was robust in 2022, given the deteriorating economic conditions, but 2023 is seeing a reduced level of completions as demand is restricted by the cost-of-living crisis.
- UK house building market segmentation: The private sector dominates new house building activity. In 2022, some 80% of housing completions were private constructions.
What’s Next for the UK House Building Market?
House building has long been cyclical, and the critical issue now is how quickly the market will recover from these adverse conditions. The industry is also undergoing changes relating to net zero. While in the shorter term this involves further costs of construction, the cost-of-living crisis is also having the impact of heightening the importance of energy efficiency in the minds of consumers.
Purchase our full report to receive an in-depth analysis of the UK House Building Market, with recommendations from our industry expert.
More About this Report
This report features company profiles of the key industry players, including Barratt Developments, Bellway, Berkeley Group, Persimmon, Redrow, Taylor Wimpney, and Vistry Group.
Expert Insights from a B2B Analyst
This report, written by Terry Leggett, a leading B2B analyst, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the UK house building market and add expert context to the numbers.
After a prolonged period of growth, the COVID-19 disruption is now being followed by economic turmoil and the sector is returning to its cyclical roots. The UK continues to have a substantial shortfall of housing, but consumer affordability, availability of land in high demand areas, a highly dysfunctional planning process and skill and material shortages all contribute to government targets being constantly missed. Evidence from the financial crisis period indicates that the recovery from the downward trend in 2023 will not be easy. Alongside the large estate builders, opportunities to repurpose vacant commercial properties will bring more opportunities for SMEs even in the disrupted total market.
Terry Leggett
Senior B2B Analyst
Collapse All
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Overview
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Products covered in this Report
-
Executive Summary
- The five-year outlook for house building
- Figure 1: Category outlook, 2023-27
- The market
- Market size and forecast
- Figure 2: Market size for new housing completions, 2018-27 (£ billion at sales price)
- Major emphasis on private sector
- Figure 3: Housing completions in England, by sector, 1962-2022 (number)
- Regional breakdown
- Figure 4: Private housing completions, by region, 2018-2022 (Number)
- Housing association activity
- Figure 5: Housing Association completions, 2018-22 (number)
- How the previous financial recession impacted the market
- Learnings from the last income squeeze
- Figure 6: Housing completions, 2006-14 (number)
- Companies and brands
- A fragmented industry
- Figure 7: Turnover segmentation of house builders, by size of company (% of turnover by number of employees), 2021
- The five-year outlook for house building
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Issues and Insights
- When will house prices recover?
- Net Zero Homes
- Net Zero buildings – a target lacking a system
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Market Size and Performance
- Construction activity
- Figure 8: The new housebuilding market, 2017-22 (£ million and indexed against 2017)
- Housing completions
- Figure 9: Housing completions, 2018-22 (Number)
- Figure 10: Value of new housing completions, 2018-22 (£ billion at sales price)
- An historic context
- Figure 11: Housing completions in England, by sector, 1962-2022 (number)
- The housing deficit continues to grow
- The short-term economic issues
- The extent of the issue
- The long-term issue
- Construction activity
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Market Forecast
- Deteriorating conditions in 2023
- Figure 12: Category outlook, 2023-27
- Difficult period
-
- Figure 13: Market forecast value of new housing completions, 2022-27 (£ billion at 2022 sales prices)
- Learnings from the last income squeeze
- Figure 14: Housing completions, 2006-14 (number)
-
- Figure 15: Interest rates, 2006-2014 (%)
- Deteriorating conditions in 2023
-
Market Segmentation
- Construction activity
- Figure 16: Segmentation of the new housebuilding market, 2017-22 (£ million)
- Housing completions
- Private housing volume
- Figure 17: Private housing completions, 2018-22 (number)
- Private housing regional segmentation
- Figure 18: Private housing completions, by region, 2018-2022 (Number)
- Housing Association volume
- Figure 19: Housing Association completions, 2018-22 (number)
- Housing Association regional segmentation
- Figure 20: Housing Association completions, by region, 2018-2022 (Number)
- Local Authority volume
- Figure 21: Local Authority completions, 2018-22 (number)
- Local Authority regional segmentation
- Figure 22: Local Authority completions, by region, 2018-2022 (Number)
- Construction activity
-
Market Drivers
- The economy
- Inflation will continue to eat into consumer spending power over the course of 2023
- Further interest rate increases will hit mortgage-holders
- High inflation and rising interest rates will compound the impact of the slowing recovery
- Consumer spending power will be curbed
- Low unemployment is helping underpin
- Consumers’ financial wellbeing has fallen from the highs of 2021…
- Figure 23: Household financial wellbeing index, 2016-23
- …and most people are feeling the effects of price rises
- Mortgage costs
- Substantial growth in the last two years
- Figure 24: Mortgage rates, by type, March 21-23 (%)
- …but things are changing in August 2023
- Mortgage levels
- Figure 25: Residential loans to individuals, Q2 2022-Q1 2023 (£ billions)
- House prices
- Declining price index
- Figure 26: UK house price index, 2006-23 (Annual % change)
- House price moderation
- Figure 27: Average UK house prices, 2006-23 (£s)
- New house prices
- Figure 28: Average house prices of new and existing dwellings, by type, 2018-2023 (£s)
- Housing transactions
- Figure 29: UK housing transactions, 2018-23 (number)
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Industry Structure
- Leading house builders
- Figure 30: Development of the house building sector, 2017-21 (number of companies)
- Figure 31: Turnover segmentation of house builders, by size of company (% of turnover by number of employees), 2021
-
- Figure 32: Leading house builders, 2023 (£ million and number)
- Public house building
- Figure 33: Revenue segmentation in new public housebuilding, by size of company, 2022 (%)
- Private house building
- Figure 34: Revenue segmentation in new private housebuilding, by size of company, 2022 (%)
- Leading house builders
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Company Profiles
- Barratt Developments
- Activity
- Performance
- Figure 35: Financial performance of Barratt Developments, 2018-22 (£ million)
- Figure 36: House completions by Barratt Developments, 2020-22 (Number)
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- Figure 37: House completions by Barratt Developments, by unit type, 2021-22 (%)
- Figure 38: House completions by Barratt Developments, by sector, 2021 and 2022 (%)
- Strategy
- Bellway
- Activity
- Performance
- Figure 39: Financial performance of Bellway, 2018-22 (£ million)
- Figure 40: House completions by Bellway, by area and type, 2021 and 2022 (number)
- Strategy
- Berkeley Group
- Activity
- Performance
- Figure 41: Financial performance of Berkeley Group, 2019-23 (£ million)
- Strategy
- Persimmon
- Activity
- Performance
- Figure 42: Financial performance of Persimmon, 2018-22 (£ million)
- Strategy
- Redrow
- Activity
- Performance
- Figure 43: Financial performance of Redrow, 2018-22 (£ million)
- Figure 44: House completions by Redrow, by type, 2022 (£ million and number)
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- Figure 45: Revenue by region for Redrow, 2021 and 2022 (£ million)
- Strategy
- Taylor Wimpey
- Activity
- Performance
- Figure 46: Financial performance of Taylor Wimpey, 2018-22 (£ million)
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- Figure 47: House completions by Taylor Wimpey, by type, H1 2022 and H1 2023 (number)
- Strategy
- Vistry Group
- Activity
- Performance
- Figure 48: Financial performance of Vistry Group, 2018-22 (£ million)
- Figure 49: Housing completions by Vistry Group, by type, 2021-22 (number)
- Strategy
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Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
- Abbreviations
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Appendix – Forecast Methodology
- Market forecast and prediction intervals
- Figure 50: Market forecast for house building completions, 2022-27 (£ billion)
- Market drivers and assumptions
- Market forecast and prediction intervals
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Further Sources
- Trade magazines
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