2021
9
UK House Building Market Report 2021
2021-09-16T04:15:20+01:00
OX1075273
1495
142459
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Report
en_GB
The house building industry recovered strongly from the disruption caused by COVID-19, benefitting from the impact of the stamp duty holiday that has driven demand though H2 2020. This, alongside…

UK House Building Market Report 2021

£ 1,495 (Excl.Tax)

Description

The UK House Building report identifies consumer attitudes towards house building, regional and national segments, and mortgages in the UK. This market report covers the market size, market forecast, market segmentation and industry trends for the House Building market in the UK. 

Current Market Landscape 

Despite the pandemic introducing significant uncertainty in 2020, activity in the home builders market has recovered quickly. Key drivers of this were the stamp duty holiday and the level of savings available, which supported a recovery in transactions that saw house prices rise by 13% in the year to June 2021.

  • 55% of Easter shoppers gave fewer gifts due to being apart from family in 2021
  • 57% of Father’s Day shoppers preferred to spend money on other events.
  • 63% agree that the pandemic has made it more important to reach out during Mother’s Day this year.

The impact of COVID-19 also constrained supply which contributed to rising prices, as home buyers looked to move from cities to less densely populated areas. We anticipate this trend to remain in the medium term, as home buyers look to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by remote working to move to larger properties – a trend already being driven by the way affordability has impacted first-time buyers.

Future Market Trends in UK House Building

Affordability continues to heavily impact the London and South East and is reflected in the notably slower growth in house prices in those regions over the past year. The disparity in growth between these regions and others suggests demand is shifting away, and is further reflected in company strategies to orientate themselves towards housing partnerships, public land regeneration, and shifting land acquisition away from these areas.

The growing focus in England on delivering truly affordable homes through Homes England and the Affordable Homes Programme joins existing targeted funding in Scotland and Wales, signalling a shift in the market that will see an increase in the provision of social housing. This is further backed by regional caps introduced in the revised Help to Buy equity loan scheme, which will demand house builders to adjust their output towards a high volume, lower cost vision of house building.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our UK Household, House and Home market research.

Quickly Understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on the house building market.
  • Segmental analysis of the house building market, including regional and national segments.
  • How COVID-19 impacted construction activity and consumer preferences in 2020, and its impact on house prices.
  • Trends in the housing market, including how preferences are driving the composition of properties built.
  • Impact of COVID-19 on mortgages and the interest rate outlook.
  • Overview of recent and incoming regulatory and legislative changes.

Covered in this report

Brands: Barratt Developments, Bellway, Berkeley Group, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

This report, written by Francesco Salau, a leading analyst in the B2B sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The house building industry recovered strongly from the disruption caused by COVID-19, benefitting from the impact of the stamp duty holiday that has driven demand though H2 2020. This, alongside delays to completions and a preference for larger homes, has put pressure on prices as home buyers take advantage of the rise in home working to move away from cities and towards less densely populated areas
Francesco Salau
B2B Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • COVID-19: market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
  2. Executive Summary

    • Impact of COVID-19 on house building
      • Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on house building, 2021
    • The market
    • Market size and forecast
      • Figure 2: UK house building market size and forecast, 2017-26, (£ billion)
    • Market segmentation
      • Figure 3: UK new housing output by segment, 2017-21, (£ billion, current prices)
    • Companies and brands
    • Industry structure
    • Company profiles
  3. Issues and Insights

    • Brexit supply constraints are causing material price rises
    • Countryside’s exit from house building
  4. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • Government support has enabled home buyers to maintain demand and exercise new preferences
    • Private sector recovery to 2019 outpaces the public sector’s
    • Restoration of new starts and completions will rise
    • Past trends in regional house prices and impact of the pandemic on preferences have shaped activity during the pandemic
    • Rising funding for local authorities will support social housing delivery
    • Bank of England signals it is ready to accept above-target inflation in the short term
    • Stamp duty savings synergise with changes in housing preference to drive rapid rise in house prices
  5. Market Size

    • Ground lost has mostly been recovered but supply issues could hamper activity in the short term
      • Figure 4: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on house building, 2020-25
    • Output rebounds from impact of COVID-19 but supply still has room to grow
      • Figure 5: UK new housing output, 2017-21, (£ billion)
      • Figure 6: UK new build registrations output, 2019-20, (number of new build registrations)
  6. Market Segmentation

    • Private sector recovery outpaces public and comes close to matching 2019 activity
      • Figure 7: UK new housing output by segment, 2017-21, (£ billion, current prices)
    • COVID-19 disruption brings completions down by up to a quarter compared to 2019
      • Figure 8: UK new permanent dwellings completed annually, 1968-2019, (dwellings completed)
      • Figure 9: UK new permanent dwellings completed annually by tenure, 1968-2019, (dwellings completed)
    • Popularity of flats continues to decline
      • Figure 10: Annual share of new completions by housing type in England, 2008/09 – 2020/21, (% share of completions)
    • New home benefits synergised with savings available from stamp duty holiday
      • Figure 11: UK average house price of new build and existing properties, April 2018 – April 2021, (£)
    • Regional disparities in the impact of COVID-19 contributed to constrained supply and regional price rises
      • Figure 12: Annual new housing output by region, England, 2018-20, (£ million, current prices)
      • Figure 13: Share of total new housing output by region, England, 2020, (% of national output)
    • Direct funding sees delivery of public tenure housing grow in Scotland and Wales
      • Figure 14: New housing output by nation, UK, 2016-20, (£ billion, current prices)
      • Figure 15: Share of UK national new housing output, segmented by public and private sector, 2019-20, (% share of output)
  7. Market Forecast

    • Soft landing from the pandemic has enabled an easy recovery but supply issues represent a short-term threat
      • Figure 16: UK new housing output forecast, 2022-26 (£ billion)
      • Figure 17: UK new housing output forecast by segment, 2022-26 (£ billion)
  8. Market Trends

    • Residential sales limited by COVID-19 disruption during 2020
      • Figure 18: Annual UK residential property sales, 2013-20, (annual sales volume)
      • Figure 19: Monthly UK residential property sales, March 2019 – March 2021, (sales volume)
    • Affordability has correlated with rapid regional increases in price
      • Figure 20: UK household tenures, 2000 – 2019/20, (thousands of households)
      • Figure 21: Mortgage owner to private renter ratio by age group, 2003/4 – 2019/20, (ratio)
      • Figure 22: UK regional affordability ratios* and change in house prices in the year to June 2021, (ratio and % annual change)
    • Growth of housing partnerships
      • Figure 23: UK new dwelling completions by housing authorities, 1999 – 2019, (units)
    • The pandemic made first-time buyers rethink what they want from a home
      • Figure 24: Millennials’ attitudes towards the home, 2020, (% of respondents)
    • Remote working, existing flat owners, and a search for space are key drivers of post-pandemic property preferences
      • Figure 25: Number of people employed by work from home status, (% of employed population)
      • Figure 26: Proportion of workers working at home ‘recently’, 2019-20, (% of workers)
      • Figure 27: Proportion of employees in occupation that have worked at home in any capacity, 2019-20, (% of employees)
    • End of Help to Buy scheme looms
      • Figure 28: Number of legal completions through the Help to Buy equity loan scheme, 2013-2020, (number of completions)
      • Figure 29: Help to Buy equity loan scheme region price caps, April 2021, (£)
  9. Market Drivers

    • Impact of COVID-19 on the housing market
      • Figure 30: Monthly UK residential property sales volume, 2018-20, (sales volume)
      • Figure 31: Change in UK annual new home registration by house type, 2010 vs 2019 and 2019 vs 2020, (% change)
    • Above-target inflation is expected to be temporary
    • Initial impact of COVID-19 drove higher rates and less lending for riskier mortgage products
      • Figure 32: UK monthly interest rates on mortgages to households, all UK monetary institutions (excl. central bank, January 2015 – July 2021, (% rate)
    • Mortgage guarantee scheme
    • Opportunity for savings via stamp duty holidays have been key to sharp price rises in the past year
      • Figure 33: Monthly UK average house price, June 2013 – June 2021, (£)
      • Figure 34: UK change in average house price by region, year to June, 2020 vs 2021 (% annual change)
    • Stamp duty drove a rapid boost in prices
      • Figure 35: UK annual change in house prices year-to-month, June 2016 – June 2021, (% annual change)
  10. Regulatory and Legislative Changes

    • Permitted development rights reduce barriers to redevelopment as an alternative
    • PDR office-to-residential conversion
    • Changes to PDR for residential development in 2020
    • New Office for Place will provide guidance for the implementation of local design codes
    • Other recent and incoming legislative changes
    • Non-resident stamp duty charge
    • The Fire Safety Act 2021 comes into force
    • Residential Property Developer Tax
    • Councils get more power to invest in housing
    • Future Homes Standard
  11. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Brexit uncertainty slowed development activity
    • Operating capacity returns close to 2019 levels at the end of 2020
  12. Industry Structure

    • Changes in industry structure
      • Figure 36: Analysis of changes in ‘development of building project’ activities, 2016-20, (number of local units and businesses)
      • Figure 37: Analysis of changes in ‘construction of residential and non-residential buildings’ activities, 2016-20, (number of local units and businesses)
    • Changes in employment structure
      • Figure 38: Analysis of the employment structure of ‘development of building project’ activities, 2019 and 2020, (number of local units)
      • Figure 39: Analysis of the employment structure of ‘construction of residential and non-residential buildings’ activities, 2019 and 2020, (number of employees and number of local units)
    • Changes in turnover structure
      • Figure 40: Analysis of the turnover structure of ‘development of building projects’ activities, 2019 and 2020, (£’000, number of businesses)
      • Figure 41: Analysis of the turnover structure of ‘construction of residential and non-residential buildings’ activities, 2019 and 2020, (£’000, number of businesses)
  13. Company Profiles

    • Barratt Developments
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 42: Financial analysis of Barratt Developments, 2017-21, (£ million and % annual change)
    • Bellway
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 43: Financial analysis of Bellway, 2016-20, (£ million and % annual change)
    • Berkeley Group
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 44: Financial analysis of Berkeley Group, 2017-21, (£ million and % annual change)
    • Persimmon
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 45: Financial analysis of Persimmon, 2015-19, (£ million and % annual change)
    • Taylor Wimpey
    • Recent company activity
    • Financial information
      • Figure 46: Financial analysis of Taylor Wimpey, 2015-19, (£ million and % annual change)
  14. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
  15. Further Sources and Contacts

    • Trade associations
    • Construction Industry Research & Information Association
    • Chartered Institute of Building (CIOB)
    • Construction Products Association
    • Home Builders Federation
    • National House Building Council
    • National Housing Federation
    • Trade magazines
    • Construction News
    • Housebuilder
    • Local Authority Building & Maintenance
    • Professional Housebuilder & Property Developer
    • Trade events
    • Homebuilding & Renovating Show
    • Homes UK
    • Housing Finance Conference and Exhibition
    • National Housing Summit

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

Market

Mintel provides a range of market information, frequently through the category level, including market size and forecasting, complete with market drivers that illustrate the forces that shape a category or market.

Consumer

Mintel’s proprietary consumer research provides our analysts with the attitudinal and behavioral data used to provide valuable insight to topical issues.

Brand/Company

Mintel provides overviews of the top brands and manufacturers, and uses consumer research to explore attitudes and reactions to brands, as well as insight into what will resonate with consumers.

Data

Market reports provide appendices of data to support the research and insight produced. Our databooks* are easily manipulated and downloadable to support your research needs and covers factors from consumer attitudes to market forecasts.

*databooks not available with UK B2B Industry reports.

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