2020
9
UK Ice Cream Market Report 2020
2020-08-27T15:38:47+01:00
OX987712
2195
122945
[{"name":"Ice Cream","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/food\/desserts\/ice-cream"}]
Report
en_GB
“Amid a rapidly evolving consumer environment during the COVID-19 outbreak, the market must respond to consumer health concerns while preserving the inherently indulgent nature of the ice cream category. While…

UK Ice Cream Market Report 2020

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Description

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Ice Cream UK market including the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

The COVID-19 lockdown is expected to disrupt the high value impulse ice cream segment, heavily reliant on out of home consumption. This will be partly offset by the trading up anticipated in the category, in line with trends seen in the 2008/09 recession. As the market moves past the disruption of the lockdown, sales are expected to rebound in 2021.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Kate Vlietstra, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Amid a rapidly evolving consumer environment during the COVID-19 outbreak, the market must respond to consumer health concerns while preserving the inherently indulgent nature of the ice cream category. While there is a sizeable interest in healthier options, key indulgence drivers such as texture must not be neglected when it comes to ice cream NPD Kate Vlietstra
Global Food and Drink Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Products covered in this Report
  2. Executive Summary

    • Impact of COVID-19 on the Ice Cream Market
    • The lockdown will disrupt high-value impulse occasions
      • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
      • Figure 2: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the ice cream retail market, short, medium and long-term, 4 May 2020
    • The market
    • 2019 saw sales decline across the ice cream category
    • Growing obesity remains a key driver of sugar reduction
    • A cooler summer 2019 season hit ice cream sales
    • Brexit is likely to affect ice cream pricing
    • Companies and brands
    • Tubs segment sales led by Ben & Jerry’s
      • Figure 3: Leading brands’ value shares in the UK retail ice cream tubs and blocks market, 2019/20*
    • Magnum leads handheld market albeit with a shrinking value share
      • Figure 4: Leading brands’ value shares in the UK retail handheld singles and multipack ice cream market, 2019/20*
    • Indulgence plays a key role in ice cream NPD launches
    • Lower calorie and sugar claims resound across ice cream launches
    • 2019 above-the-line spend is dominated by Unilever
    • Magnum’s strong image underpinned by trust, Ben & Jerry’s resonates with younger consumers
      • Figure 5: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2020
    • The consumer
    • Ice cream has universal appeal
      • Figure 6: Frequency of eating ice cream, October 2019
    • Dairy ice cream and ice lollies top the charts for consumption
      • Figure 7: Types of ice cream eaten, October 2019
    • Lower sugar and lower calorie ice creams are key to frequent ice cream consumption
      • Figure 8: Factors that would encourage more consumption of ice cream, October 2019
    • Gut health strikes a chord with non-dairy ice cream users
      • Figure 9: Interest in ice cream concepts, October 2019
    • Younger consumers are keen to try ice cream from other countries
      • Figure 10: Behaviours relating to ice cream, October 2019
    • Dairy-free is deemed healthier by younger consumers
      • Figure 11: Attitudes relating to ice cream, October 2019
    • What we think
  3. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Ice Cream Market

    • Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
      • Figure 12: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the ice cream retail market,, short, medium and long-term, 4 May 2020
    • Opportunities and Threats
    • Emotional connection will benefit some brands
    • The lockdown and evenings in create opportunities for at-home ice cream consumption
    • Brands can win favour by responding to health concerns
    • Hygiene concerns highlight an opportunity
      • Figure 13: Hygiene habits since the start of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 28th February 2020-9th April 2020
    • Impact on the Ice Cream Market
    • The lockdown will disrupt high-value impulse occasions
      • Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail value sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
    • Online surge expected to endure
    • Less frequent shopping and limited time in-store will hit impulse buys
      • Figure 15: Shopping behaviour changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, 16th April – 23rd April 2020
    • Strong balance sheets will help large multinationals weather the disruption
    • Shifts in consumer behaviour
    • Better-for-you trend will continue
      • Figure 16: Changes to priorities since the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak, eating healthily and local community, 16th April-23rd April 2020
    • Support for local producers holds potential
    • Impact on ice cream key consumer segments
    • Shrinking birth rates present a challenge for the ice cream category
      • Figure 17: Trends in the number of live births, England and Wales, 2000-18
    • The time has come to focus on older adults
      • Figure 18: UK population, by age, 2019 and 2024
    • How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the ice cream market
    • Consumers seek indulgence during turbulent times
    • Premium and luxury ice creams benefited in the 2008/09 recession
    • Own-label could see a comeback
      • Figure 19: Ice cream launches in the UK, by private label and branded, 2008-19
    • Impact on the marketing mix
    • 2008/09 recession saw advertising maintain momentum
    • Bringing playtime to the home
    • Smaller, agile brands are connecting with consumers in new ways
    • COVID-19: Market context
  4. Issues and Insights

    • Lower calorie ice creams can expand into handheld formats
    • The facts
    • The implications
    • Gut health ice cream would resonate with parents
    • The facts
    • The implications
  5. The Market – What You Need to Know

    • 2019 saw sales decline across the ice cream category
    • The lockdown will disrupt high-value impulse occasions
    • Growing obesity remains a key driver of sugar reduction
    • A cooler summer 2019 season hit ice cream sales
    • Brexit is likely to affect ice cream pricing
  6. Market Size and Forecast

    • 2019 saw a sales decline across the ice cream category
      • Figure 20: Total UK value and volume sales of ice cream, 2014-19
    • Outlook in light of COVID-19
    • COVID-19 has created huge disruption to the ice cream industry
    • Loss of out of home occasions will hit sales in 2020
    • Modest volume growth predicted from 2022
      • Figure 21: Forecast of UK retail value sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
      • Figure 22: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
      • Figure 23: UK value and volume retail sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), 2014-24
    • Pre-COVID-19 forecast highlights the impact that the crisis will have on sales
      • Figure 24: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
      • Figure 25: Forecast of UK value sales of ice cream (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
      • Figure 26: Forecast of UK volume sales of ice cream (pre-COVID-19 forecast), 2014-24
    • Forecast methodology
  7. Market Segmentation

    • Cooler summer sees handheld ice cream sales struggle
    • Tubs and blocks also struggle amid cooler weather
      • Figure 27: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream, by segment, 2017-19
  8. Market Drivers

    • Growing obesity remains a key driver of sugar reduction
    • Ice cream is making slow progress with sugar reduction
    • A sugar tax on the horizon?
    • A cooler summer 2019 season hit ice cream sales
      • Figure 28: Total hours of sunshine in the UK, by season, 2014-19
    • Brexit is likely to affect both ice cream pricing and consumption
    • Sustainability is important to consumers, but less so in the ice cream category
    • Population of older consumers set to grow
  9. Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

    • Tubs segment sales led by Ben & Jerry’s
    • Magnum leads handheld market albeit with a shrinking value share
    • Indulgence plays a key role in ice cream NPD launches
    • Lower calorie and sugar claims resound across ice cream launches
    • 2019 above-the-line spend is dominated by Unilever
    • Magnum’s strong image underpinned by trust, Ben & Jerry’s resonates with younger consumers
  10. Market Share

    • Unilever struggles despite strong Ben & Jerry’s sales
    • Ben & Jerry’s drives growth through dairy-free
    • Häagen-Dazs delivers small value growth
    • Halo Top’s winning streak dwindles
      • Figure 29: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail ice cream tubs and blocks market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
    • Magnum increases volume share
    • Cooler 2019 summer hits handheld ice cream sales
      • Figure 30: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail handheld singles and multipack ice cream market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
  11. Launch Activity and Innovation

    • Dairy-based ice cream gains share of launches
      • Figure 31: Share of new product launches in the UK retail ice cream market, by type, 2015-19
      • Figure 32: Ice cream launches in the UK, by format, 2018-19
    • Healthy ice cream launches span different focus areas
    • Healthier ice creams for kids containing hidden fruit and vegetables
      • Figure 33: Examples of new fruit and vegetable ice lolly launches in the UK, 2019
    • Launches continue to put the spotlight on calories and sugar
      • Figure 34: Ice cream launches in the UK, by selected claim, 2019
    • Halo Top’s launch is followed by own-label competitors
    • Unilever explores no added sugar and expands better-for-you ranges
    • Plant-based ice cream also expands into lower calorie and sugar options
      • Figure 35: Examples of new plant-based ice cream launches in the UK featuring prominent calorie messaging claims, 2019
    • Lower calorie brands move into handheld ice cream
      • Figure 36: Examples of lower calorie, handheld ice cream launches in the UK, 2019
    • Gelato offers a lower calorie proposition
      • Figure 37: Examples of new gelato launches in the UK, 2019
    • Indulgence is still key in NPD
    • Premium ingredients remain a key innovation area
      • Figure 38: Examples of new ice cream launches in the UK containing innovative ingredients, 2019
    • Exciting textures have broad appeal
    • Consumers raise a glass to alcoholic ice cream
      • Figure 39: Examples of new ice cream launches in the UK containing alcohol, 2019
    • Non-dairy ice cream launches get more indulgent
      • Figure 40: Examples of new plant-based ice cream launches in the UK, 2019
    • “Extend my brand” trend fuels ice cream launches in 2019
      • Figure 41: Examples of new ice cream launches in the UK extending existing brands from other categories, 2019
    • Launches with environmentally-friendly packaging are on the rise
    • Environmentally-friendly packaging claims climb
      • Figure 42: Launches of ice cream featuring environmentally friendly package claims, 2016-19
    • Packaging challenges remain
    • Corporate social responsibility incorporates technology
  12. Advertising and Marketing Activity

    • 2019 above-the-line spend is dominated by Unilever
      • Figure 43: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on ice cream, by top five advertisers, 2019
    • Magnum tells consumers to #neverstopplaying
    • Premium is the name of the game for Häagen-Dazs and Nuii
    • Plant-based and better-for-you brands drive product visibility
    • Various brands explore experiential
    • Retailers support own-brand ice cream
    • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
  13. Brand Research

    • Brand Map
      • Figure 44: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2020
    • Key brand metrics
      • Figure 45: Key metrics for selected brands, January 2020
    • Brand attitudes: Magnum is seen widely as trustworthy and high quality
      • Figure 46: Attitudes, by brand, January 2020
    • Brand personality: Ben & Jerry’s is perceived to be fun by two thirds of consumers
      • Figure 47: Brand personality – macro image, January 2020
    • Häagen-Dazs is seen by many to be special and indulgent
      • Figure 48: Brand personality – micro image, January 2020
    • Brand analysis
    • Magnum has a broad appeal and is widely perceived to be indulgent
      • Figure 49: User profile of Magnum, January 2020
    • Ben & Jerry’s innovative approach resonates with younger consumers
      • Figure 50: User profile of Ben & Jerry’s, January 2020
    • Kelly’s is trusted among older consumers and is seen most widely as traditional
      • Figure 51: User profile of Kelly’s, January 2020
    • Hӓagen-Dazs is seen by many to be indulgent
      • Figure 52: User profile of Hӓagen-Dazs, January 2020
    • Breyers Delights enjoys a more loyal following than most among its modest user base
      • Figure 53: User profile of Breyers Delights, January 2020
    • Halo Top appeals to men and women alike with its better-for-you positioning
      • Figure 54: User profile of Halo Top, January 2020
  14. The Consumer – What You Need to Know

    • Ice cream has universal appeal
    • Dairy ice cream and ice lollies top the charts for consumption
    • Lower sugar and lower calorie ice creams are key to frequent ice cream consumption
    • Gut health strikes a chord with non-dairy ice cream users
    • Younger consumers are keen to try ice cream from other countries
    • Dairy-free is deemed healthier by younger consumers
  15. Frequency of Eating Ice Cream

    • Ice cream has universal appeal
    • Parents and 25-44s are core users
      • Figure 55: Frequency of eating ice cream, October 2019
    • Younger groups eat a wider range of ice creams
      • Figure 56: Repertoire of types of ice cream eaten, October 2019
  16. Types of Ice Cream Eaten

    • Dairy ice cream and ice lollies top the charts for usage
      • Figure 57: Types of ice cream eaten, October 2019
    • Gelato does well in London but could expand
    • Dairy-free appeals most to younger consumers
  17. Factors to Encourage Ice Cream Usage

    • Healthiness is rarely a key factor for ice cream buyers
    • Lower sugar/calorie ice creams prove interesting
    • Brands and private label tap in to the lower calorie ice cream trend
      • Figure 58: Factors that would encourage more consumption of ice cream, October 2019
    • All-natural ingredients appeal to one in three
  18. Interest in Ice Cream Concepts

    • Gut health strikes a chord
      • Figure 59: Interest in ice cream concepts, October 2019
    • High interest in gut health among non-dairy ice cream users and parents
      • Figure 60: Ice cream launches with digestive health claims, 2019
    • Millennials show interest in unusual cones
      • Figure 61: Unusual ice cream cones in foodservice, 2019
    • Mess-free ice cream appeals for eating on the go
      • Figure 62: Marletto Vanilla Flavoured Ice Cream to Squeeze, Poland 2019
  19. Behaviours relating to Ice Cream

    • Younger users are keen to try ice cream from other countries
      • Figure 63: Behaviours relating to ice cream, October 2019
      • Figure 64: Internationally inspired ice cream launches in the UK, 2019
    • Texture is important
    • International variants offer inspiration for new textures
    • Dairy-free ice cream must improve texture perceptions
  20. Attitudes relating to Ice Cream

    • Dairy-free is deemed healthier by younger consumers
      • Figure 65: Attitudes relating to ice cream, October 2019
    • Clearly stated calorie content is important to the majority of consumers
    • Clear calorie details have a place on healthy as well as less healthy variants
      • Figure 66: Ice Cream – CHAID – Tree output, October 2019
    • Methodology
      • Figure 67: Ice Cream – CHAID – Table output, October 2019
      • Figure 68: Ice Cream – CHAID – Table output, October 2019
  21. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
    • Consumer research methodology
  22. Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

      • Figure 69: UK retail value sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
      • Figure 70: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
    • Forecast methodology
  23. Appendix – Market Share

      • Figure 71: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail ice cream tubs and blocks market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
      • Figure 72: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail handheld ice cream market, by value and volume, 2018/19 and 2019/20
  24. Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

      • Figure 73: Share of new product launches in the UK retail ice cream market, by ingredient, 2017-19
      • Figure 74: Share of new product launches in the UK retail ice cream market, by texture, 2017-19
  25. Appendix – The Consumer

      • Figure 75: Average energy, sugars and saturated fat in ice cream launches in the UK, 2019

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

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