The UK Lottery Market Report examines consumers’ participation in lottery play, the implications of the shifting balance between retail and digital play, and the impact of the cost of living crisis on the UK lottery market. This report covers the UK lottery market size, market forecast, market segmentation and lottery industry trends in 2023.
What is the market size of the UK lottery market?
The consumer expenditure on the UK lottery market amounted to £4.2 billion in 2023. Mintel’s data forecasts that the lottery market size will continue to grow to reach £4.9 billion in 2029.
Lottery Industry Research
The UK lottery market was among the minority of business sectors to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic in a better position than they entered it. However, as past recessions have demonstrated, lottery spending is considered to be linked to the health of the wider economy and is therefore exposed to the negative effects of the cost of living crisis, which is already impacting levels and patterns of play. Despite this concern, high-value rollover draws are the main driver of increased spending and is keeping the lottery market in growth, but not at a rate that exceeds inflation.
Lottery Industry Trends and Statistics
The National Lottery was set up to prioritise good causes in sport, the arts and heritage, however, the public’s priorities are shifting. Consumers are most interested to see draw proceeds benefit healthcare, foodbanks and social care services for the elderly. This makes a strong case for a re-assessment of the National Lottery’s distribution model as the three categories that currently receive 60% of funding – sport, arts and heritage – are ranked in the bottom four of public preference. They also highlight significant concern over the state of public services and living standards, with health services, foodbanks and support for the elderly now the most popular recipients of lottery funding.
Lottery industry statistics
- 70% of Brits have participated in the National Lottery draw in the last 12 months.
- 27% of UK adults have played a lottery scratchcard in the last 12 months.
- 50% of lottery players agree that the lottery games should support health services.
- 41% of lottery players agree that the lottery games should support foodbanks.
Future Opportunities in the UK Lottery Market
Growth opportunities for the National Lottery should emerge from changes in the next license that will enable new operator Allwyn to innovate, while society lotteries could gain some indirect benefits from forthcoming revisions to gambling laws.
The potential for innovation created by the next National Lottery license should provide new ideas regarding products, distribution and marketing that inspire further growth and long term stimulus, with a particular focus for digital play.
To discover more about the UK Lottery Market Report 2023, read our UK Gambling Trends Market Report 2022, or take a look at our other Gambling Market Research.
Quickly Understand
- The impact of the cost of living crisis on the UK lottery market.
- Changes in participation habits emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Implications of the shifting balance between retail and digital play.
- Performance of draw games versus instant-wins.
- Opportunities to incentivise in-person lottery play.
- Consumer preferences for the good causes lotteries support.
- Explores lottery market size and lottery industry trends.
Covered in this Report
Products: National Lottery, Health Lottery, and society, charity and local lotteries.
Expert Analysis from a Specialist in the Leisure Sector
This report, written by David Walmsley, a leading analyst in the leisure sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the UK lottery market and add expert context to the numbers.
The popularity of big-jackpot opportunities is the sector’s best hope of limiting the impact of the cost-of-living crisis until the next National Lottery licence gives its new operator more scope to innovate through digital technology especially.”
David Walmsley
Senior Leisure Analyst
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Overview
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Products covered in this Report
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Executive Summary
- The five-year outlook for lotteries
- Figure 1: Lotteries outlook, 2023-27
- The market
- Rollovers and changeovers stimulate spending
- Figure 2: Consumer expenditure on lotteries, 2017/18-2027/28*
- Rise of instant-wins comes to a halt
- Figure 3: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2017/18-2021/22*
- Digital converts retain online habit
- Figure 4: National Lottery sales, by channel, 2017/18-2021/22*
- A new operator for the National Lottery
- Companies and brands
- People’s Postcode Lottery helps society segment trim National Lottery’s lead
- Figure 5: Lottery sales, by operator share, 2017/18-2021/22*
- The consumer
- Older interest sustains lottery draw play
- Figure 6: Lottery games played, 2020-22
- Non-core draw games threatened by income squeeze
- Figure 7: Lottery draw games played, 2020-22
- Charity lotteries gain most from high street’s return
- Figure 8: Retail purchasing of lottery draw tickets, 2021 and 2022
- In-store prizes can draw younger players to retail play
- Figure 9: Incentives to buying lottery draw tickets in-person, 2022
- Public prepared to prop up essential services with lottery cash
- Figure 10: Most popular good causes for lotteries to support, 2022
- The five-year outlook for lotteries
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Issues and Insights
- What are the implications of the cost-of-living crisis for lotteries?
- How can recent decline in retail spending be reversed?
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Market Size and Performance
- One of the pandemic’s few winners
- Figure 11: Lottery sales and consumer expenditure*, 2017/18-2021/22**
- One of the pandemic’s few winners
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Market Forecast
- Rollovers and changeovers to stimulate spending
- Figure 12: Lotteries outlook, 2023-27
- New licence could create new drivers of growth
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- Figure 13: Market forecast of consumer expenditure* on lotteries, 2017/18-2027/28**
- Learnings from the last income squeeze
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- Figure 14: Consumer expenditure* on lotteries, 2010/11-2015/16
- Forecast methodology
- Rollovers and changeovers to stimulate spending
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Market Segmentation
- Instant-wins take immediate hit as life returns to normal
- Figure 15: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2017/18-2021/22*
- Digital converts look here to stay
- Figure 16: National Lottery sales, by channel, 2017/18-2021/22*
- Instant-wins take immediate hit as life returns to normal
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Market Drivers
- Cost-of-living crisis the biggest threat to spending
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- Figure 17: Household financial wellbeing index, 2020-22
- COVID legacy entrenches digital shift
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- Figure 18: National Lottery active digital player base, 2018/19-2022/23*
- National Lottery licence changes hands
- Society lotteries hope to gain from Gambling Act reform
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Market Share
- National Lottery’s lead slips
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- Figure 19: Lottery sales, by operator share, 2017/18-2021/22*
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Launch Activity and Innovation
- Allwyn acquires Camelot
- Scratchcards added to home shopping lists
- Lose big, win big
- Society lotteries get mobile
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Advertising and Marketing Activity
- Market leaders dominate spend
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- Figure 20: UK lottery operators’ total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure, 2019-21
- TV adspend leads pandemic recovery
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- Figure 21: UK lottery operators’ total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure, by media type, 2019-21
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
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Lottery Play
- Younger interest passes with pandemic
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- Figure 22: Lottery games played, 2020-22
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Lottery Draws
- Non-core games threatened by income squeeze
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- Figure 23: Lottery draw games played, 2020-22
- Escapist mood creates smaller-draw opportunities
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- Figure 24: Lottery draw games played by 18-34 year olds, 2020-22
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Methods of Play
- Cost-of-living crisis boosts society lottery retail sales
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- Figure 25: Retail purchasing of lottery draw tickets, 2021 and 2022
- Online and in-store sales reach new equilibrium
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- Figure 26: Online purchasing of lottery draw tickets, 2021 and 2022
- IWG play swings further towards smartphones
- Figure 27: Methods of playing lottery instant-win games online, 2021 and 2022
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Retail Innovation
- In-store prizes offer biggest incentive to in-person play
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- Figure 28: Incentives to buying lottery draw tickets in-person, 2022
- More points of sale can create more points of connection
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- Figure 29: Interest in buying lottery draw tickets from a wider range of in-person locations, by age, 2022
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Good Causes
- Strong support for propping up public services with lotteries cash
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- Figure 30: Most popular good causes for lotteries to support, 2022
- Self-interest guides cause interest
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- Figure 31: Most popular good causes for lotteries to support, by age, 2022
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Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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Appendix – Forecast Methodology
- Market forecast and prediction intervals
- Figure 32: Forecast of consumer spending on lotteries, 2022/23-2027/28*
- Market drivers and assumptions
- Forecast methodology
- Market forecast and prediction intervals
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