2020
9
UK Performing Arts Market Report 2020
2020-08-27T16:02:53+01:00
OX989468
2195
123460
[{"name":"Leisure Time","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/leisure-time"}]
Report
en_GB
“Audiences will eventually return, the absence making them hungrier than ever for the excitement of live shared experience, though sadly some venues may never reopen. The sector has faced this…

UK Performing Arts Market Report 2020

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Report Summary

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Performing Arts: Inc Impact of COVID-19 – UK market, and the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

30% of all adults and 47% of theatre-goers (those who attended the theatre before COVID-19) have watched a streamed performing arts event during the pandemic. 24% of theatre-goers would be interested in paying to watch live events streamed online at home in future. The average amount people are willing to pay is the same as the price of watching a live theatre performance in the cinema (£14 in 2019). As at 1 August Mintel estimates total theatre attendances of 7.5 million for 2020, a 78% fall from 2019, with box office revenues declining 79% to £274 million. The COVID-19 crisis is likely to cost the performing arts sector around £1 billion in lost ticketing revenue during 2020.

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Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by John Worthington, a leading analyst in the Leisure sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Audiences will eventually return, the absence making them hungrier than ever for the excitement of live shared experience, though sadly some venues may never reopen. The sector has faced this crisis with characteristic creativity and ‘the-show-must-go-on’ resilience. Innovative responses include livestreamed and other in-home experiences, outdoor and drive-in events, which will help to engage the interest of new generations and offer glimpses of the performing arts sector in a post-COVID world. John Worthington
Senior Leisure Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Covered in this Report
          • COVID-19: Market context
            • Economic and other assumptions
            • Executive Summary

                • The market
                  • After a record box office year in 2019 theatres are expected to lose over £1 billion in ticketing spend in 2020
                    • 2025 attendances are forecast to still lag behind pre-COVID levels due to declining venues
                      • Figure 1: UK theatre attendances, volume forecast as of 1 August 2020, 2015-25
                      • Figure 2: UK theatre box office revenue forecast as of 1 August 2020, 2015-25
                    • Impact of COVID-19 on performing arts
                      • Theatres have been among the last places to reopen and socially distanced performances may not be viable for many venues
                        • Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on performing arts, short, medium and long term, 1 August 2020
                      • Companies and brands
                        • COVID-19 will affect both publicly subsidised and commercially run theatres
                            • Figure 4: Leading commercial theatre companies, by turnover, July 2020
                          • COVID-19 has led to livestreaming and drive-in performances
                            • The consumer
                              • Over half of adults attended events prior to COVID-19
                                • Figure 5: Performing arts attendance pre-COVID-19, June 2020
                              • Musicals are the largest revenue stream
                                • Figure 6: Performing arts attendance pre-COVID-19, by type, June 2020
                              • Special Occasionals and Budget Regulars
                                • Figure 7: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events, June 2020
                              • London theatre accounted for 60% of UK box office revenues in 2019
                                • Event cinema revenues grew 30% in 2019
                                  • Figure 8: Locations visited for performing arts events, June 2020
                                • Attracting female theatre lovers back is key to recovery
                                  • Figure 9: Who people typically attend performing arts events with, June 2020
                                • There is sufficient interest in socially distanced theatre if it proves viable
                                  • Drive-in events could be here to stay
                                    • Figure 10: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events with social distancing, June 2020
                                  • Strong future potential for event cinema, experience gifting and theatre breaks
                                    • Figure 11: Future performing arts opportunities, June 2020
                                  • What we think
                                  • The Impact of COVID-19 on Performing Arts

                                    • The market
                                      • COVID-19 likely to cost £1 billion in lost box office revenue in 2020
                                        • Biggest threat is the pandemic itself rather than the recession
                                          • Audiences will still lag pre-COVID levels in 2025
                                            • The consumer
                                              • Around a third of theatre-goers would attend any venue with social distancing
                                                • Novelty of drive-in theatre has drawing power
                                                  • A third of those who streamed online during COVID-19 would pay to do so for live events in future
                                                    • Companies and brands
                                                      • 5,000 theatre job losses due to COVID-19 had been announced by early August 2020
                                                        • Tentative plans to reopen where possible
                                                          • COVID-19: Market context
                                                          • Issues and Insights

                                                            • Online streaming has gone from niche to mainstream
                                                              • Streaming has drawn in lapsed and occasional theatre-goers as well as regulars
                                                                • Could livestreaming offer a future revenue stream for a sector in crisis?
                                                                  • Improvements in home technology are also helping to make livestreaming more attractive
                                                                    • Like event cinema, livestreaming can help to increase engagement with ‘traditional’ theatre
                                                                      • Livestreaming could help to make socially distanced events more viable
                                                                        • Creating a sense of exclusivity can help to raise the value of livestreamed performances
                                                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                          • 79% decline in box office revenue expected for 2020
                                                                            • Attendances expected to still lag pre-COVID levels in 2025
                                                                              • Record ticket spend of £1.3 billion prior to COVID-19…
                                                                                • …and 2018-19 saw record demand levels for West End theatre
                                                                                  • Regional theatre attendances dipped slightly from 2015-19 but revenues were up
                                                                                    • Government bailout package will help ward off COVID catastrophe but impact will still be severe
                                                                                      • Theatres gear up for socially distanced reopening but doubts remain over viability
                                                                                        • Online streaming drew huge audiences in lockdown
                                                                                          • Event cinema surpasses £50 million value in 2019
                                                                                          • Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast

                                                                                            • Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
                                                                                              • Figure 12: Expected impact of COVID-19 on performing arts, short, medium and long term, 1 August 2020
                                                                                            • Public appetite for theatre shown by rising box office spend prior to COVID-19
                                                                                              • Figure 13: UK theatre attendance and box office revenue, 2015-19
                                                                                            • Record capacity levels achieved in London theatre in 2019
                                                                                              • Figure 14: London theatre attendance and box office revenue, 2015-19
                                                                                            • West End musicals accounted for 40% of UK theatre revenue in 2019
                                                                                              • Figure 15: London theatre attendance, by type of performance, 2015-19
                                                                                            • Regional theatre revenues were up 16% from 2015-19
                                                                                              • Figure 16: UK regional theatre attendance and box office revenue, 2015-19
                                                                                            • COVID-19 closures are likely to lead to around 80% decline in normal attendance in 2020
                                                                                              • Industry expected to lose £1 billion in lost ticket revenue in 2020
                                                                                                • Decline in inbound tourism and domestic city breaks will also affect demand
                                                                                                  • Forecast assumptions
                                                                                                      • Figure 17: UK theatre attendance and box office revenue, historic and forecast, 2015-25
                                                                                                    • Rising job losses threaten to elongate the ‘V-shaped’ COVID-19 recession
                                                                                                      • Theatres performed well in the last recession
                                                                                                        • Figure 18: London theatre box office revenue, 2007-12
                                                                                                      • Demand will return strongly once people feel safe, but a decline in venues will keep attendances below pre-COVID levels
                                                                                                        • New work/life patterns will also present challenges and opportunities
                                                                                                          • Figure 19: UK theatre attendances, volume forecast as of 1 August 2020, 2015-25
                                                                                                          • Figure 20: UK theatre box office revenue forecast as of 1 August 2020, 2015-25
                                                                                                      • Market Background

                                                                                                        • COVID-19 is having a devastating impact on theatres
                                                                                                          • Government bailout package will help to ward off disaster…
                                                                                                            • …but many concerns remain
                                                                                                              • Road to recovery set out but destination arrival date remains unclear
                                                                                                                • Open-air theatre permitted from July 2020
                                                                                                                  • Socially distanced indoor pilots began in July
                                                                                                                    • Some venues are planning to reopen when given the green light…
                                                                                                                      • …but lack of a ‘Stage Five’ target date puts Christmas panto season in jeopardy
                                                                                                                        • Theatres have embraced online streaming during lockdown
                                                                                                                          • NT at Home attracted 6 million UK streams during its first eight weeks
                                                                                                                            • The Shows Must Go On!
                                                                                                                              • RSC offered free content on BBC and paid content via Marquee TV
                                                                                                                                • Event cinema topped £50 million in 2019
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 21: UK & Ireland event cinema box office revenues, 2016-19
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 22: UK & Ireland event cinema top 10 box office revenue earners, 2019
                                                                                                                              • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                • The performing arts market is highly fragmented with a mix of revenue models
                                                                                                                                  • Arts Council investment has been shifting from London towards the regions
                                                                                                                                    • Big five commercial theatre groups
                                                                                                                                      • Drive-in opera and theatre arrives in the UK
                                                                                                                                        • Virtual theatre
                                                                                                                                        • Performing Arts Companies

                                                                                                                                          • Performing arts – a fragmented market
                                                                                                                                            • Arts Council funding has been shifting from London to the regions
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 23: Top 25 ‘National Portfolio’ performing arts organisations in receipt of Arts Council England support (prior to COVID-19), 2018-22
                                                                                                                                            • Leading subsidised organisations
                                                                                                                                              • Royal Opera House
                                                                                                                                                • The National Theatre
                                                                                                                                                  • Royal Shakespeare Company
                                                                                                                                                    • English National Opera
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Leading publicly funded performing arts organisations, by revenue, July 2020
                                                                                                                                                      • Leading commercial theatre groups
                                                                                                                                                        • Delfont Mackintosh Theatres
                                                                                                                                                          • Ambassador Theatre Group
                                                                                                                                                            • LW Theatres
                                                                                                                                                              • Nederlander Theatres
                                                                                                                                                                • Nimax Theatres Limited
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Leading commercial theatre companies, by turnover, July 2020
                                                                                                                                                              • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                • Old Vic explores new revenue stream
                                                                                                                                                                  • Pay-to-view from ROH
                                                                                                                                                                    • Kitchen table sci-fi and other home theatre experiences
                                                                                                                                                                      • The world’s first drive-in opera
                                                                                                                                                                        • Drive-in musicals and horrible history
                                                                                                                                                                          • Theatre in your back garden
                                                                                                                                                                            • Immersive theatre and virtual reality will be other key post-COVID trends
                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                              • Growth in Millennial attendance
                                                                                                                                                                                • Musicals are the most popular form
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Theatre-goers fall into two camps
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Event cinema is helping to increase engagement with traditional theatre
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Attracting women back to venues is a key challenge
                                                                                                                                                                                        • 37% of theatre-goers would attend any indoor venue with social distancing measures in place
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Event cinema, livestreaming, gift experiences and immersive theatre are all future opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Performing Arts Attendance

                                                                                                                                                                                            • 56% of adults went to performing arts events before COVID-19
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 26: Performing arts attendance pre-COVID-19, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Millennial generation seeking live experiences
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Those attending performing arts events at least twice a year, by generational group, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                            • 22% of Londoners attended an event at least once a month pre-COVID-19
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Musicals are the most popular type of event
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Performing arts attendance pre-COVID-19, by type, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Panto attracts the broadest socio-economic demographic
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ballet/dance and opera attract the least socially diverse audiences
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Demographic profile of those attending types of performing arts events, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Women have the most varied performing arts diet
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Number of performing arts event types attended, by gender and age, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Opera and ballet/dance-goers are the most frequent visitors
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Percentage of performing arts attendees who go at least once a month, by event type, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Special Occasionals versus Budget Regulars
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 32: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events, by age, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Performing Arts Attendance – Locations

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Major London venues attract visitors from across the UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Locations visited for performing arts events, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Region of residence of GB visitors to London theatres, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                • 62% of attendees go to venues in other UK towns/cities and 23% go to rural venues
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Event cinema-goers are also more likely than average to go to traditional theatres
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • One in five attendees went to outdoor events pre-COVID-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Locations visited for performing arts events, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Performing Arts Attendance – Companions

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Women are the main drivers and decision-makers of performing arts attendance
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Who people typically attend performing arts events with, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Age profile of children living with adults who visit performing arts events as a family, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Multi-generational panto
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Who people typically attend performing arts events with, by type of event, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • £75K+ household income group are three times more likely to go to theatre with work colleagues
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Performing Arts – Online Viewing during COVID-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Three in 10 adults have streamed events online during COVID-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Online streaming of performing arts events during COVID-19, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Millennials have been the biggest online viewers
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Online streaming of performing arts events during COVID-19, by generational group, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Almost half of ‘normal’ theatre-goers have streamed online events
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Online streaming of performing arts events during COVID-19, by type of event-goer, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes towards Attendance when Venues Open

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 37% of theatre-goers would visit any venue with social distancing measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Over-45s are significantly less likely to return to indoor venues until the crisis is over…
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • …but some are more willing to attend outdoor events
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events with social distancing, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Ballet/dance and opera buffs are the keenest to return
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Attitudes towards attending performing arts events with social distancing, by type of event-goer, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Half of adults would attend drive-in performances
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Last-minute purchase decisions are more likely in the coming months
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Other attitudes towards attending performing arts events when venues reopen, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Performing Arts – Future Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Event cinema has further growth potential
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Future interest in watching performing arts events at the cinema, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Future interest in watching performing arts events at the cinema, by gender and age, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Future interest in watching performing arts events at the cinema, by type of event, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Theatre gift experiences are a long-term growth trend
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Theatre breaks to celebrate ‘return to freedom’ will be popular when the crisis is over
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Total immersion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Apps can offer added value for theatre lovers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Future interest in watching performing arts events at the cinema, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • One in four theatre-goers would pay to watch livestreamed events in future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Future interest in paying to watch livestreamed performing arts events at home, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Event cinema-goers are the most likely to pay online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumers are willing to pay £14 on average for livestreamed events
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Willingness to pay to watch livestreamed performing arts events at home, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology

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