The continued squeeze on incomes and high inflation fuelled double-digit value growth in the market in 2023. Sharply slowing inflation in 2024 meanwhile saw growth in the market slow. While incomes remain subdued, savvy shopping habits will endure. Once consumer confidence improves, the market will face more intense competition from pricier alternatives like meat cuts and foodservice meals. However, improving confidence should also create opportunities to encourage trading up.
One in four processed meat buyers list health benefits among the top attributes that would encourage them to pay more for these products. This points to promising potential for the category to play in the better-for-you space. Aligning with this interest will become increasingly relevant going forward, with healthy eating expected to gain interest as consumer confidence improves.
Sustainability as an issue is expected to gain prominence, creating both challenges and opportunities for the category moving forward. Promisingly, 31% of meat/poultry eaters would choose meat products made in a greener way if looking to be more sustainable. This points to a valuable opportunity for brands embracing sustainable practices to highlight their efforts in order to keep users onside.
This report looks at the following areas:
- Key trends in launch activity and future opportunities
- Usage of processed meat and key demographics
- Factors to pay more for, including high-quality meat and health benefits
- Behaviours related to processed meat, including perceptions of unfamiliar ingredients as off-putting
- Steps people would take to eat more sustainably, including eating less but higher quality meat and willingness to switch to more sustainable meat options
Slowing category inflation saw value growth slow in 2024. A keener focus on health and sustainability will present both opportunities and challenges to the market.
Isabelle Shilling, Research Analyst
Market Definitions
This Report examines the UK retail market for processed poultry and red meat meal components. Throughout this Report, ‘processed meat’ is used as an umbrella term referring to both red meat and poultry products.
In this Report, processed poultry/red meat meal components are defined as chilled and frozen poultry and red meat which has been altered from its original carcass form and has been taken a stage further than cutting into portions or adding a marinade or sauce, and which are typically eaten as part of a main meal.
The market size given in the Report includes sales of the following:
- Bacon, sausages and burgers
- Coated poultry, including any poultry part or portion that has been coated, eg breaded, battered.
Other processed poultry and red meat products are also covered in the consumer research, including meatballs, cooked meat pieces and luncheon meat/corned beef.
Poultry includes chicken, turkey, duck and goose. Red meat includes beef, pork and lamb (including mutton).
Unprocessed poultry and red meat, defined as chilled and frozen primary cuts of red meat such as joints, steaks and chops, and poultry in whole bird or portion format, minced, diced and stewing meats, offal products such as liver, as well as red meat and poultry which has been marinated or glazed with a sauce are excluded from this Report.
Meat snacks are excluded from this Report and are covered in Mintel’s Crisps, Savoury Snacks and Nuts – UK, 2022 Report. Meat encased in pastry such as Cornish pasties or sausage rolls is excluded from this Report.
Sales via catering or foodservice establishments are excluded, although references and comparisons to these sectors may be made where relevant.
Value figures throughout this report are at retail selling prices (rsp) and include VAT unless stated otherwise. Market sizes at constant 2023 prices are devised using Mintel’s all items deflator.
Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of His Majesty’s Stationery Office and the King’s Printer for Scotland.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Opportunities for processed poultry and red meat main meal components
- High-quality meat appeals widely in processed meat products
- Explaining the role of unfamiliar ingredients and clean label NPD should chime
- Permission for meat products to highlight their environmentally-friendly efforts
- Market dynamics and outlook
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- Inflation will fuel value growth, underlying sales to falter
- Coated poultry gains amid income squeeze
- Graph 1: value retail sales of red meat main meal components and coated poultry, by segment, 2019-24
- Birds Eye remains the top brand in frozen, Spam outperforms in canned
- Graph 2: retail sales of leading brands in frozen processed meat/poultry meal components, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Market faces head- and tailwinds from macro trends
- What consumers want and why
- Raw processed meat/poultry enjoys near-universal usage
- Graph 3: usage of raw processed meat/poultry products, by type, 2022-24
- Usage of cooked/ready-to-eat products remains steady
- Graph 4: usage of cooked/ready-to-eat processed meat/poultry products, by type, 2022-24
- A quarter would pay more for products with health benefits
- Graph 5: factors that would encourage respondents to pay more for a processed meat product, 2024
- Unfamiliar ingredients are off-putting for many
- Graph 6: behaviours related to processed meat products, 2024
- Many would switch to poultry to be more sustainable
- Graph 7: steps that meat/poultry eaters would take to eat more sustainably, 2024
- Innovation and marketing
- Premium products gain share of launches, leading brands refresh their offering
- ‘Fakeaways’, exciting flavours and formats and alternatives to traditional pork products attract launches
- Advertising expenditure falls in 2023
- Graph 8: total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on processed poultry and red meat products*, 2021-24*
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MARKET DYNAMICS
- Market size
- Market value grows by a third over 2019-24
- Graph 9: retail value sales of processed poultry and red meat main meal components, 2019-24
- Easing inflation sees sales slow sharply in 2024
- Market forecast
- Inflation will fuel value growth, underlying sales to fall
- Underlying sales to fall in the processed meat category
- Market segmentation
- Income squeeze buoys demand…
- Graph 10: value retail sales of red meat main meal components and coated poultry, by segment, 2019-24
- …but hits pricier segments
- Market share
- Princes retains top position in cold canned meats
- Graph 11: retail sales of leading brands in cold canned meats, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Herta regains ground in chilled cooked sausages
- Graph 12: retail sales of leading brands in chilled cooked sausages, 2021/22-2023/24
- Birds Eye remains the top brand in frozen
- Graph 13: retail sales of leading brands in frozen processed meat/poultry meal components, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Market drivers
- Real wage growth continues, many consumers are still catching up
- Graph 14: CPI inflation rate and total pay growth rate, 2021-24
- 27% see their finances as ‘healthy’
- Graph 15: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-24
- Consumer confidence for the year ahead weakens in 2024
- Graph 16: the financial confidence index, 2016-24
- Category inflation eases in 2024
- Graph 17: CPI Index, selected meat products and all food, 2019-24
- Strong consumer interest in healthy eating
- Graph 18: how often people try to eat healthily, 2018-24
- Highly processed foods come under scrutiny…
- …with calls for more research
- Interest in sustainability to gain ground as income pressures ease
- Decline in under-35 population poses headwinds for some segments
- Graph 19: trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2018-28
- Border Target Operating Model checks come into place
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WHAT CONSUMERS WANT AND WHY
- Usage of processed meat and poultry products
- Raw processed meat/poultry enjoys near-universal usage
- Graph 20: usage of raw processed meat/poultry products, by type, 2022-24
- Sausages and bacon maintain popularity but have low engagement among younger demographics
- Graph 21: usage of selected raw processed meat products, by age and presence of children in the household, 2023
- Usage of cooked/ready-to-eat products remains steady
- Graph 22: usage of cooked/ready-to-eat processed meat/poultry products, by type, 2022-24
- Factors to pay more for
- Over half of meat eaters would pay more for high-quality meat
- Graph 23: factors that would encourage respondents to pay more for a processed meat product, 2024
- High-quality meat appeals widely in processed meat products
- High-quality call-outs will remain pertinent…
- …as will referencing heritage breeds
- Examples of high-quality call-outs
- Traceability can signal confidence in quality
- Many see lesser-known cuts as a good way to be more sustainable
- International launches offer inspiration
- A quarter would pay more for products that offer health benefits
- Retain comfort connotations
- Engage the young by leaning into health
- Graph 24: health benefits as a factor that would encourage respondents to pay more for a processed meat product and concerns about protein intake, by age, 2024
- Scope for more-prominent protein call-outs
- Call out grams of protein
- AHDB ‘Let’s Eat Balanced’ campaign should chime
- Behaviours related to processed meat products
- The category is widely seen as processed
- Graph 25: behaviours related to processed meat products, 2024
- The processed nature of the category is accepted…
- …but unfamiliar ingredients are off-putting for most
- Less-familiar ingredients have a role to play
- Itsu and Heck offer cues on communicating the benefits of less-familiar ingredients
- Spotlight clean label credentials…
- …also in frozen
- Steps people would take to eat more sustainably
- Many would eat less but higher quality meat to eat more sustainably
- Graph 26: steps that meat/poultry eaters would take to eat more sustainably, 2024
- Expected long-term shift towards sustainability will continue to pose challenges for the market
- Many would switch to poultry in a bid to be more sustainable
- Recognition that farming methods can impact the environmental footprint of meat…
- …allowing scope for brands to draw attention to green credentials
- Highlighting green credentials should chime
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INNOVATION AND MARKETING TRENDS
- Launch activity and innovation
- Premium launches gain share in the meat/poultry category
- Graph 27: share of premium and economy launches in the meat and poultry* category , 2020-24
- Own labels extend premium presence
- Premium own-label launches
- Brands look to elevate at-home meals
- ‘Fakeaway’ ranges attract new launches from brands…
- …and own label
- International flavours continue to feature in recent launches
- NPD looks to formats to drive interest
- NPD explores better-for-you alternatives to traditional pork products
- Packaging revamps for Birds Eye and Heck…
- …look to boost standout
- Heck and Co-op highlight ethics and welfare
- Advertising and marketing activity
- Advertising expenditure falls in 2023
- Graph 28: total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on processed poultry and red meat products*, 2021-24*
- Birds Eye encourages users to ‘bring a bit of magic to your mealtimes’…
- …and hosts pop-up in support of its Chicken Shop range
- Richmond’s ‘Good Times’ campaign celebrates special moments
- Richmond launches ‘Good Times’ advert
- M&S builds on Farm to Foodhall push with Tom Kerridge
- M&S Farm to Foodhall
- AHDB ‘We Eat Balanced’ campaign returns
- AHDB Let’s Eat Balanced with British Beef
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APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on processed meat, by advertiser
- Retail sales of red meat main meal components and coated poultry, by segment
- Retail sales of cooked sliced meat/poultry and canned meat, by segment
- Retail sales of leading brands in chilled cooked sausages, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading brands in chilled cooked sausages, by volume, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales and shares of leading manufacturers in chilled cooked sausages, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales and shares of leading manufacturers in chilled cooked sausages, by volume, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading brands in cold canned meats, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading brands in cold canned meats, by volume, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading manufacturers in cold canned meats, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading manufacturers in cold canned meats, by volume, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading brands in frozen processed meat/poultry meal components, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading brands in frozen processed meat/poultry meal components, by volume, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading manufacturers in frozen processed meat/poultry meal components, by value, 2021/22-2023/24
- Retail sales of leading manufacturers in frozen processed meat/poultry meal components, by volume, 2021/22-2023/24
- Market forecast data and methodology
- Market forecast
- Market forecast and prediction intervals (value)
- Forecast methodology
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Market definition (continued)
- Abbreviations and terms
- Consumer research methodology
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
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