This special seasonal report analyses consumer data and market factors to predict consumer sentiment and plans for Christmas from a retail perspective, focussing on both the grocery retail sector and the non-food retail sector. Know what to expect this festive season with this comprehensive report.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report is written by Mintel’s Director of Retail Insight, Nick Carroll. Nick manages Mintel’s UK Retail Reports, covering shopper behaviour and retail strategy across channels and a broad range of retail categories. Nick is regularly asked for his opinion on the latest retail trends by the UK media and works with Mintel clients across sectors to understand shopper behaviour and unlock opportunities within the market.
While shoppers are looking forward to festive 2025, concerns over finances and a desire to spend out-of-home will put pressure on retail.
Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
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- Outlook for festive 2025
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THE (FESTIVE) MOOD OF THE CONSUMER
- Confidence wavers heading into Q4…
- Graph 1: British household financial confidence, 2021-25
- …particularly among higher-income households
- Graph 2: change in financial situation in the past year, 2024
- Graph 3: change in financial situation in the past year, 2025
- Consumers are more optimistic for festive 2025…
- …but value will remain top of the agenda
- Expect a later picture of demand
- Graph 4: weekly spending with all non-food retailers within the Snoop/SpendMapper co-hort, November and December 2023/24
- Out-of-home a focus of consumer plans
- Graph 5: planned spending areas for the upcoming festive season, 2024-25
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PROSPECTS AND KEY TRENDS FOR THE GROCERY SECTOR
- Price war top of the agenda in grocery
- Greater challenge will come from out-of-home
- Graph 6: spending intentions for in-home and out-of-home food and drink, 2025
- Don’t overwhelm shoppers with messaging
- Rapid delivery will be lent on
- Graph 7: month-on-month change between November and December 2024 among select rapid delivery operators, 2025
- Opportunity to create in-home ‘moments’ to defend against out-of-home
- Make sure merchandising pops as shoppers look to get organised
- A more ‘social’ Christmas
- Help ease the stress of hosting
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PROSPECTS AND KEY TRENDS FOR THE NON-FOOD SECTOR
- Despite consumer hesitation, there remains much opportunity to drive impulse purchasing
- Graph 8: non-food spending intentions for Christmas, 2025
- Demand for value will push shoppers to Black Friday
- Capturing attention and driving consistent footfall
- Later purchasing behaviour brings opportunity for rapid to shine
- AI will have a bigger role this Christmas
- Uptick in home demand will extend to gifts
- Support for local and communities heightened
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- A mixed outlook for festive 2025
- Christmas 2025 estimates
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APPENDIX
- Consumer research methodology – EMEA
- Snoop SpendMapper methodology
- Abbreviations
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