This special seasonal report analyses consumer data and market factors to predict consumer sentiment and plans for Christmas from a retail perspective, focussing on both the grocery retail sector and the non-food retail sector. Know what to expect this festive season.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report was written by Mintel’s Director of Retail Insight, Nick Carroll. Nick manages Mintel’s UK Retail Reports, covering shopper behaviour and retail strategy across channels and a broad range of retail categories. Nick is regularly asked for his opinion on the latest retail trends by the UK media and works with Mintel clients across sectors to understand shopper behaviour and unlock opportunities within the market.
Confidence remains mixed, but there will be greater opportunities for retailers this festive period.
Nick Carroll
Director of Retail Insight
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- Key points
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consumer sentiment and plans for Christmas
- Consumer sentiment
- Looking back: maybe next year will be something special
- Market pressures have eased, but many shoppers still feeling the pressure
- Graph 1: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-24
- A difficult first half of the year…
- …but the past three months give some optimism for Christmas
- Graph 2: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- A highly polarised market, with improved opportunities at the premium end
- Graph 3: change in financial situation in the past year, 2024
- Greater optimism for the year ahead could allow the handbrake to be taken off
- Graph 4: the financial confidence index, 2019-24
- Plans for Christmas 2024
- Optimism over how enjoyable this festive period will be…
- …although three months out from the event shoppers remain cautious
- Graph 5: spending expectations for Christmas 2024
- Year-on-year, the picture is much improved
- Graph 6: percentage point difference between ‘more’ and ‘less’ in spending intentions for Christmas, 2022-24
- Polarised financial position playing out in intentions
- Graph 7: spending expectations of consumers from households of over £75k for Christmas 2024
- Graph 8: spending expectations of consumers from households of under £15k for Christmas 2024
- Gift reduction trend here to stay
- Delayed payment terms will be critical to indulgence
- Early signs are that higher-earners will trade-up and ‘go bigger’
- Graph 9: plans to trade up and host larger celebrations, by household income, for Christmas 2024
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Prospects and key trends for the grocery sector
- Prospects for in-home spend in 2024 look positive
- Graph 10: plan spending for festive food and drink, in and out-of-home, 2024
- Early plans indicate more shoppers will push the boat out
- Even among those under pressure there is opportunity within grocery
- Graph 11: plans to spend on in-home food and non-alcoholic drinks this Christmas, 2024
- Graph 12: plans to spend on dining out this Christmas, 2024
- Generational divide between twist and tradition
- Graph 13: “I like Christmas dishes/recipes which offer a twist on classic Christmas dishes”, by age, 2024
- Tap into spending plans with exciting twists for the younger audience
- Striking the balance key
- Partnerships can help to elevate ranges and trade shoppers up
- Most are confident in their skills, but that doesn’t mean they won’t appreciate help
- Graph 14: “I am confident enough in my cooking skills to host family/friends for Christmas”, by household income, 2024
- Rapid delivery brings more competition for treat and simple solutions…
- …making convenience ranges critical
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Prospects and key trends for the non-food sector
- It’s (belatedly) beginning to look a lot like Christmas
- Graph 15: when christmas gift buying began, 2021-23
- All set for a big Black Friday
- Younger and affluent shoppers will lean on digital tools to cut through ‘deal noise’
- Graph 16: “I plan to use online price-tracking tools (eg PriceRunner, PriceSpy etc) to ensure I get the best price on products for Christmas 2024”, by age, 2024
- Lean into the ‘stress’ of Christmas
- Graph 17: “I find spending time with family over the Christmas period stressful”, by age, 2024
- Help younger consumers escape with out-of-home social occasions
- Graph 18: “I plan to spend more on beauty/grooming services than in 2023 (eg hairdresser/barber)”, by age, 2024
- Graph 19: “I plan to buy new beauty products in preparation for social events”, by age, 2024
- Self-expression in the face of tradition
- Removing stress and creating downtime in the home a significant opportunity
- Help create moments of bliss within a hectic period
- More parents look to push up spending in 2024
- Graph 20: planned spending on games/toys as gifts, by parental status and age of children in household, 2024
- Nostalgia a powerful draw for younger parents
- Embracing a ‘less’ traditional Christmas
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2024 predictions and key takeaways
- Clouded confidence, but optimistic signs that a better Christmas is on the horizon
- Christmas 2024 estimates
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Further resources
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