2020
9
UK Public Transport Market Report 2020
2020-08-27T14:01:30+01:00
OX989462
2195
122695
[{"name":"Transport","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/transport"}]
Report
en_GB
“Public transport is one of the sectors most affected by COVID-19 and will be one of the last to fully recover. Demand will return once people feel safe, but there…

UK Public Transport Market Report 2020

£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)

Report Summary

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Public Transport UK market, including the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

66% of public transport users say that, after the COVID-19 restrictions are lifted, they are likely to be put off using public transport in future. Over half of this group (56%) are likely to travel by car more and 17% are more likely to cycle, but 35% say they will just reduce their overall travel. Public transport will see the biggest drop in passenger numbers ever recorded during the year April 2020-March 2021. There will be a gradual rise in usage as lockdown restrictions are relaxed, but social distancing requirements and consumer caution will keep numbers well below ‘normal’ levels. Once people feel safe to travel, demand for public transport will return, however, a permanent rise in more flexible working patterns will lead to a decrease in commuting.

 

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by John Worthington, a leading analyst in the Lifestyles sector, his extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

Public transport is one of the sectors most affected by COVID-19 and will be one of the last to fully recover. Demand will return once people feel safe, but there is likely to be a permanent decline in commuting as flexible working patterns become part of the new normal. Luring travellers back from the safe cocoon of their cars will be a challenge. Industry and policymakers will need to work hard to dispel negative associations and raise the positive profile of public transport, making it feel safe, clean, convenient, reliable, good value and enjoyable. John Worthington
Senior Lifestyles Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Covered in this Report
          • COVID-19: Market context
            • Wider UK context
              • Transport context
                • Economic and other assumptions
                • Executive Summary

                    • The market
                      • Rail, bus, tube & tram journeys totalled 7.9 billion in 2019/20
                        • Bus travel is in long-term decline while train travel continues to expand
                          • Light rail reached record levels prior to COVID disruption
                            • An estimated £2 billion spend on taxis in ‘normal’ times
                              • All public transport segments will see biggest ever recorded drop in 2020/21
                                • Figure 1: Passenger journeys on public transport* in Great Britain, volume forecast as of 2 July 2020, 2014/15-2024/25**
                                • Figure 2: Passenger journeys on public transport* in Great Britain, value forecast as of 2 July 2020, 2014/15-2024/25**
                              • Impact of COVID-19 on public transport
                                • Passenger numbers are expected to rise gradually but to remain well short of normal levels until COVID is no longer a threat
                                  • Figure 3: Expected impact of COVID-19 on public transport, short, medium and long term, 2 July 2020
                                • Companies and brands
                                  • Financial crisis looming for operators
                                    • Go-Ahead & Keolis joint venture accounts for largest passenger share
                                      • Figure 4: Rail operating companies in Great Britain, estimated market share of total passenger journeys, 2019/20
                                    • Stagecoach & FirstGroup are the bus market leaders outside London
                                      • Figure 5: Bus operators, estimated UK regional (excl. London) market share of total services, June 2020
                                    • Go-Ahead, ComfortDelGro and Arriva lead the bus market in London
                                      • Figure 6: Bus operators, estimated London market share of total services, June 2020
                                    • Crowd avoidance apps and on-demand buses
                                      • The consumer
                                        • Major transport challenge made even harder by COVID-19
                                          • Figure 7: Domestic transport usage, total usage and regular usage, by mode, May 2020
                                        • Public transport needs to raise perception of convenience to compete with cars
                                          • Figure 8: Priorities when choosing mode of transport, May 2020
                                        • Overcrowding will remain a key issue for consumers after COVID-19
                                          • Figure 9: Preferred improvements on public transport, May 2020
                                        • Most consumers are reluctant to return to public transport
                                          • Figure 10: Impact of COVID-19 on future usage of public transport, May 2020
                                        • Over half of those put off public transport are likely to drive more…
                                          • Figure 11: Likely behaviours of those put off using public transport in future, May 2020
                                        • …but active travel and micro-mobility modes will be boosted by COVID-19
                                          • Figure 12: Interest in switching from car to active travel modes and e-bike/e-scooter, May 2020
                                        • Public transport is perceived as less relaxing than car travel and anti-social behaviour is also a barrier
                                          • Providing emissions data could nudge people into greener transport choices
                                            • Figure 13: Attitudes towards public transport, May 2020
                                          • What we think
                                          • The Impact of COVID-19 on Public Transport

                                            • The market
                                              • Car usage is approaching normal levels but public transport usage remains well down
                                                • 2020/21 volumes are expected to be 70% down on the previous year
                                                  • The consumer
                                                    • Two thirds of public transport users will be put off
                                                      • Over a third may travel less in future
                                                        • Crowding will become even more of an issue in future
                                                          • Companies and brands
                                                            • Mobile apps for safer travel
                                                              • Financial crisis for sector
                                                                • COVID-19: Market context
                                                                • Issues and Insights

                                                                  • Letting the train takes the stresses and strain
                                                                    • The facts
                                                                      • The implications
                                                                        • Travelling in style
                                                                          • The facts
                                                                            • The implications
                                                                            • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                              • Public transport will see the biggest passenger fall ever recorded in 2020/21
                                                                                • Train, bus, tube & tram passengers totalled 7.9 billion in 2019/20
                                                                                  • Bus journeys have declined while rail travel has soared over the past 15 years
                                                                                    • 1.4 billion annual tube journeys prior to COVID-19
                                                                                      • Light/rail tram reached record levels prior to COVID-19
                                                                                        • Coach travel worth £500 million and taxi market worth £2 billion
                                                                                          • Demand will bounce back but operators face financial crisis
                                                                                            • Changing work/life habits, decarbonisation and urban micro-mobility will be key drivers of change
                                                                                            • Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast

                                                                                              • Short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
                                                                                                • Figure 14: Expected impact of COVID-19 on public transport, short, medium and long term, 2 July 2020
                                                                                              • Short term
                                                                                                • Medium term
                                                                                                  • Long term
                                                                                                    • Annual passenger journeys were stable at 8.2 million before COVID-19
                                                                                                      • Figure 15: Number of passenger journeys on public transport* and passenger revenue in Great Britain, 2014/15-2019/20**
                                                                                                    • Buses in decline but still account for over half of journeys
                                                                                                        • Figure 16: Number of passenger journeys on public transport in Great Britain, by segment, 2014/15-2019/20*
                                                                                                      • Rail accounts for 61% of public transport revenues
                                                                                                        • Figure 17: Passenger revenue on public transport in Great Britain, by segment, 2014/15-2019/20*
                                                                                                      • Impact of COVID-19 on public transport
                                                                                                        • Public transport usage remains low as lockdown is eased in early July 2020
                                                                                                          • Figure 18: Percentage of ‘normal’ traffic usage*, 9 March 2020-22 June 2020
                                                                                                        • All public transport segments will see biggest ever recorded drop in 2020/21
                                                                                                          • The health risks are the major threat to public transport not the recession
                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Number of passenger journeys on public transport* and passenger revenue in Great Britain, 2014/15-2024/25**
                                                                                                          • Post-COVID-19 working patterns will affect travel but long-term environmental needs should boost public transport
                                                                                                            • Figure 20: Passenger journeys on public transport* in Great Britain, volume forecast as of 2 July 2020, 2014/15-2024/25**
                                                                                                            • Figure 21: Passenger journeys on public transport* in Great Britain, value forecast as of 2 July 2020, 2014/15-2024/25**
                                                                                                          • Other public transport segments
                                                                                                            • Domestic air travel
                                                                                                              • Figure 22: Volume of UK domestic flights, 2015-19
                                                                                                            • Scheduled coach
                                                                                                              • Taxi/PHV
                                                                                                              • Market Background

                                                                                                                • 10-year transport usage trends
                                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Average number of trips, by main travel mode in England, 2008-18
                                                                                                                  • The future of transport – a tale of two crises
                                                                                                                    • The carbon impact of transport
                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Average greenhouse gas emissions* (grams) per passenger kilometre travelled, 2019
                                                                                                                      • Transport Decarbonisation Plan
                                                                                                                        • Rail investment
                                                                                                                          • Bus investment
                                                                                                                            • Government financial support for public transport – COVID-19
                                                                                                                              • COVID-19 could put planned investment at risk
                                                                                                                                • Active travel
                                                                                                                                  • Urban mobility
                                                                                                                                    • WFH is here to stay
                                                                                                                                    • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                      • Go-Ahead, Keolis, FirstGroup & Abellio have the largest share of rail passengers
                                                                                                                                        • Stagecoach, FirstGroup, Go-Ahead, Arriva & ComfortDelGro are the leading bus operators
                                                                                                                                          • Keolis is the light rail market leader
                                                                                                                                            • Rise in mobile passenger information tools is being accelerated by COVID-19
                                                                                                                                              • Buses on demand, driverless & anti-pollution buses
                                                                                                                                                • Pendolino redesign and new luxury sleeper service
                                                                                                                                                • Rail, Bus, Light Rail/Tram & Underground Operators

                                                                                                                                                  • National rail operators
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Rail operating companies in Great Britain, by passenger volume, 2019/20
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Rail operating companies in Great Britain, estimated market share of total passenger journeys, 2019/20
                                                                                                                                                  • National bus operators
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Bus operators in Great Britain, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                  • Regional bus services – market share
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Bus operators, estimated UK regional (excl. London) market share of total services, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                  • London bus services – market share
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Bus operators, estimated London market share of total services, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                  • Trams & light rail
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Tram and light rail services in Great Britain, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                  • Underground
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Underground rail services in Great Britain, June 2020
                                                                                                                                                • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                  • COVID-19 & tools to combat overcrowding
                                                                                                                                                    • COVID-19 and ticketing
                                                                                                                                                      • Demand Responsive Transport
                                                                                                                                                        • Driverless buses
                                                                                                                                                          • Anti-pollution buses
                                                                                                                                                            • Integrated local travel apps
                                                                                                                                                              • Rail investment
                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                • 27% of adults were ‘regular’ public transport users
                                                                                                                                                                  • Buses were still the most frequently used public transport mode despite decline
                                                                                                                                                                    • Under-35s were the biggest public transport users
                                                                                                                                                                      • Lower fares and less crowding are most preferred improvements
                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumers are reluctant to return to public transport until they feel safe
                                                                                                                                                                          • Public transport needs to compete better with cars on convenience and relaxation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Anti-social behaviour is a deterrent for many travellers
                                                                                                                                                                            • Public Transport Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                • 63% of consumers were regular car users and 27% were regular public transport users
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Public transport demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                    • COVID-19 boost to cycling
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Domestic transport usage, mode and frequency, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Domestic transport usage, total usage and regular usage, by mode, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Rural residents want to see greater availability of public transport
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Domestic transport usage, regular usage (more than once a week), by location of residence, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Travel purposes
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Purpose of domestic transport usage, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Public Transport Usage Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Public transport needs to be seen as the most convenient option
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Four in 10 consumers prioritise the ‘travel experience’
                                                                                                                                                                                          • One in five consumers prioritise environmental factors
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Customer service reputation seen as a low priority
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Priorities when choosing mode of transport, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Public Transport – Preferred Improvements

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Post-COVID fare rises could deter consumers from returning to public transport
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Crowding will become an even more pressing issue
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Preferred improvements on public transport, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Other improvements
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Impact of COVID-19 on Public Transport Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • COVID concerns have softened but are still widespread
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Public levels of concern about COVID-19, March-June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Two thirds of transport users will be put off returning
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Impact of COVID-19 on future usage of public transport, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Car travel, active travel and no travel are all set to increase
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Likely behaviours of those put off using public transport in future, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Perception of safety and government messaging will be key to a recovery of public transport
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: When people expect to return to public transport, 21 June 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Public Transport & Active Travel – Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Potential interest in active travel and urban mobility innovations
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Interest in switching from car to active travel modes and e-bike/e-scooter, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Scope for onboard entertainment and wellness services
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Interest in accessing onboard services on public transport, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards Public Transport

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The ‘convenience’ of the car needs to be challenged
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Public transport needs to be seen as a stress reliever
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Anti-social behaviour is a deterrent
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Train ticketing needs to be simplified
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Food & drink remains a weakness on longer train journeys
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Attitudes towards public transport, May 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunity for me-time
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ethical labelling
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Affordable luxury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology

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