UK Residential Central Heating and Heat Pumps Market Report 2023
“The net zero objective, supported by the Heat and Buildings Strategy, will undoubtedly transform residential central heating in the UK. However, these are the very early stages of the transformation…

UK Residential Central Heating and Heat Pumps Market Report 2023

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Stay ahead of the curve and secure future growth for your business with Mintel’s UK Residential Central Heating and Heat Pumps Market Report 2023. Our full report is packed with consumer-led market intelligence, the latest trends and consumer behaviours affecting your industry. Get a 360° view of the central heating industry and the heat pump industry including market sizes, share and forecasted growth.

Below, we’ve handpicked the key insights analysed in the full report and summarised the core topics.

UK Heating Industry – Current landscape

The Heat and Buildings Strategy will transform residential central heating in the UK, though we are still at the very early stages of the transition away from fossil fuels. The policy heavily relies on the adoption of heat pumps and the UK is lagging well behind other European countries in installations.

  • UK central heating industry market size: Mintel predicts that the UK residential central heating market will grow to £6.35 billion by 2027.

UK Central Heating and Heat Pumps – What’s next for the market?

Inevitably, looking to encourage consumers to opt for a higher capital cost alternative (even after government subsidies) at a time of consumer spending pressure is a challenge for the industry. However, energy prices have risen, which increases the impetus for energy efficient solutions in both the short and medium term in the eyes of many consumers.

To learn more about the UK Residential Central Heating market, including analysis of market drivers and industry structure, purchase Mintel’s full market report.

More About this Report

This report provides company profiles of key players in the industry, including Baxi Heating UK, Ideal Heating, Vaillant Group, Viessmann, and Worcester Bosch.

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Expert Insights from an Industry Analyst

This report, written by Terry Leggett, a leading B2B analyst, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the industry and add expert context to the numbers.

The net zero objective, supported by the Heat and Buildings Strategy, will undoubtedly transform residential central heating in the UK. However, these are the very early stages of the transformation away from fossil fuel reliant systems, and the early adoption of heat pumps has been substantially below government targets for a host of reasons. Moreover, the development of cost-effective hydrogen capacity is yet to be established and is only in early stages of testing.

Terry Leggett - Senior AnalystTerry Leggett
Principal Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • Key issues covered in this Report
    • Products covered in this Report
  2. Executive Summary

    • The five-year outlook for residential central heating
      • Figure 1: Category outlook, 2023-27
    • The market
    • Market size and forecast
      • Figure 2: Market size for residential central heating, 2017-27 (£ billion)
    • Segmentation and government policy
      • Figure 3: Domestic property heating in England, by type, 2021 (%)
      • Figure 4: Segmentation of the UK central heating market, 2022 (£ million)
    • Other market drivers
    • Companies and brands
    • Boilers and heat pumps
    • Radiators
  3. Issues and Insights

    • Why the UK lags the rest of Europe in heat pump adoption
      • Figure 5: European heat pump sales, by country, 2022 (number per 1,000 households)
      • Figure 6: Projected European heat pump sales, by country 2023-30 compared with 2022 (Number)
      • Figure 7: European home temperature loss comparison over five hours (degrees centigrade lost)
      • Figure 8: Users satisfaction with heat pumps, 2023 (% of respondents)
    • Hydrogen – a certain transition, an uncertain time-line
    • Advantages
    • Disadvantages
  4. Market Size and Performance

    • The early stages of a transition
      • Figure 9: Producer price inflation for central heating radiators and boilers for the domestic market, 2017-2022 (index, 2017 = 100)
      • Figure 10: Market size for residential central heating, 2017-21 (£ billion)
  5. Market Forecast

    • Slow start to the transformation
      • Figure 11: Category outlook, 2023-27
    • Early stages of change
      • Figure 12: Market forecast residential central heating, 2022-2027 (£ billion)
  6. Market Segmentation

    • Overview and the impact of the Heat and Buildings Strategy
      • Figure 13: Domestic property heating in England, by type, 2021 (%)
      • Figure 14: Segmentation of the UK central heating market, 2022 (£ million)
    • Boilers
    • Types of boilers
      • Figure 15: Residential central heating boilers in England, by type, 2001-20 (000s)
    • Types of fuel
      • Figure 16: Use of gas fuelled central heating, by area, 2021 (%)
      • Figure 17: Use of electrical heating, by area, 2021 (%)
      • Figure 18: Use of oil Fuelled central heating, by area, 2021 (%)
    • Sales
      • Figure 19: Market for fossil fuel and electric boilers, 2017-22 (£ billion)
      • Figure 20: Segmentation of fossil fuel and electric boiler market, by fuel, 2017-22 (%)
    • Biomass
      • Figure 21: Installations of biomass boilers for domestic use, by type, 2017-2022 (number)
      • Figure 22: Biomass boiler voucher applications under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, by type and month, May 2022-May 2023 (Number)
      • Figure 23: Market for biomass boilers, 2017-22 (£ million)
    • Heat pumps
      • Figure 24: Heat pump voucher applications under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, by type and month, May 2022-May 2023 (Number)
      • Figure 25: Installations of heat pumps for domestic use, by type, 2017-2022 (number)
      • Figure 26: Market for heat pumps, by type, 2017-22 (£ million)
    • Solar Thermal
      • Figure 27: Installations of solar thermal for domestic use, by type, 2017-2022 (number)
      • Figure 28: Market for solar thermal, 2017-22 (£ million)
    • Wet System Radiators
      • Figure 29: Market for iron and steel radiators, 2017-22 (£ million)
    • Storage heaters
      • Figure 30: Use of storage heating by area type, 2021 (%)
      • Figure 31: Market for storage heaters, 2017-22 (£ million)
  7. Market Drivers

    • Overview
      • Figure 32: Measures taken to reduce energy bills in 2022 (% of respondents)
    • General economic climate
    • Inflation will continue to eat into consumer spending power over the course of 2023
    • Further interest rate increases will hit mortgage-holders
    • High inflation and rising interest rates will compound the impact of the slowing recovery
    • Consumer spending power will be curbed
    • Low unemployment is helping underpin
    • Consumers’ financial wellbeing has fallen from the highs of 2021…
      • Figure 33: Household financial wellbeing index, 2016-23
    • …and most people are feeling the effects of price rises
    • New housebuilding
      • Figure 34: Housing completions in England, by sector, 1962-2022 (number)
    • Housing stock
    • Volume
      • Figure 35: Housing stock, by country, 2017-23 (000s)
      • Figure 36: Types of primary heating system, 2020 (%)
    • Distribution
      • Figure 37: UK housing stock, by region, 2022 (000s)
    • House price inflation
      • Figure 38: House price inflation, 2017-23 (Annual % change by month)
    • House moving
      • Figure 39: Average annual savings by upgrading inefficient boilers to an A-rated boiler, by type of property, 2022 (£s)
      • Figure 40: Residential property transactions, 2017-23 (number by month)
    • Ownership
      • Figure 41: Dwelling stock in England, by tenure, 2021 (% of total)
    • Property type and size
      • Figure 42: Composition of UK housing stock, by type of property, 2017
      • Figure 43: Distribution of heat pumps. by housing type in England, 2020 (%)
    • Age structure
      • Figure 44: Dwellings in English and Welsh regions, by build period, 2021 (%)
      • Figure 45: Distribution of heat pumps, by period of build, 2020 (%)
    • RMI expenditure
    • Public housing
      • Figure 46: RMI expenditure on public housing, 2017-22 (£ million and indexed against 2017)
    • Private housing
      • Figure 47: RMI expenditure on private housing, 2017-22 (£ million and indexed against 2017)
    • Domestic energy prices
      • Figure 48: Default energy tariff cap announcements and levels, 2019-23 (£)
      • Figure 49: Average domestic gas and electricity bills, 2017-22 (£s)
  8. Government interventions through grants

    • Introduction
    • The Boiler Upgrade Scheme/Home Energy Scotland/Boiler Replacement
    • Home Upgrade Grant
    • Sustainable Warmth Competition
    • The Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund
    • The Energy Company Obligation
      • Figure 50: ECO measures installed concerning heating, 2017-2022 (Number)
    • Green Homes Local Authority Delivery
  9. Industry Structure

    • Boilers and heat pumps
    • Radiators
  10. Company Profiles

    • Baxi Heating UK
    • Activity
    • Performance
      • Figure 51: Financial performance of Baxi Heating, 2017-21 (£ million)
    • Strategy
    • Ideal Heating
    • Activity
    • Performance
      • Figure 52: Financial performance of Ideal Heating, 2017-21 (£000)
    • Strategy
    • Vaillant Group
    • Activity
    • Performance
      • Figure 53: Financial performance of Vaillant Group UK, 2017-21 (£ 000)
    • Strategy
    • Viessmann
    • Activity
    • Performance
      • Figure 54: Financial performance of Viessmann, 2017-21 (£ 000)
    • Strategy
    • Worcester Bosch
    • Activity
    • Performance
      • Figure 55: Financial performance of Bosch Thermotechnology, 2017-21 (£ million)
    • Strategy
  11. Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

    • Abbreviations
  12. Appendix – Forecast Methodology

    • Market forecast and prediction intervals
      • Figure 56: Market forecast for residential central heating (£ billion)
    • Market drivers and assumptions
  13. Further Sources

    • Trade magazines

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.


Mintel provides a range of market information, frequently through the category level, including market size and forecasting, complete with market drivers that illustrate the forces that shape a category or market.


Mintel’s proprietary consumer research provides our analysts with the attitudinal and behavioral data used to provide valuable insight to topical issues.


Mintel provides overviews of the top brands and manufacturers, and uses consumer research to explore attitudes and reactions to brands, as well as insight into what will resonate with consumers.


Market reports provide appendices of data to support the research and insight produced. Our databooks* are easily manipulated and downloadable to support your research needs and covers factors from consumer attitudes to market forecasts.

*databooks not available with UK B2B Industry reports.

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