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- UK Residential Small Scale Renewables Market Report 2024
Stay ahead of the curve in the UK residential renewable energy market. What are the latest consumer attitudes towards residential small scale renewables? What impact are legislative factors having on the market? Answer these questions and more with this comprehensive industry report.
This Report Looks at the Following Areas:
- Analysis of the size of the key residential small scale renewable technologies market and forecast for the next five years
- The impact of legislative factors on the market
- Key drivers for the adoption of solar PV and heat pumps
- Consumer attitudes towards residential small scale renewables
- Adoption of residential small scale renewables by homeowners
- Consumer intentions to install small scale renewable technologies
UK Residential Small Scale Renewables – Industry Trends
Upfront costs are a key barrier to adoption
Consumer interest in small scale renewables is rising. Mintel’s market research shows that one in three homeowners would consider installing solar panels and one in five would consider a heat pump. However, upfront costs remain a significant barrier to adoption. Financial incentives and more attractive finance options would be the most significant way to encourage installation of green technologies.
Skills shortage remains key industry challenge
One of the biggest challenges for small scale renewable deployment is to have a large enough skilled and trained workforce that is able to install these technologies that can meet consumer demand. To bridge this skills gap, various initiatives have been launched. But, to successfully enhance the sector’s growth capabilities, higher attention and collaboration between policymakers and the industry are necessary.
Purchase the full industry report for a complete analysis of the UK market, including market dynamics and competitive landscape. Readers may also be interested in Mintel’s UK Renewable Energy Market Report.
Report Scope
For the purposes of this report, Mintel has included the following small scale renewable technologies:
- Solar PV – Photovoltaic cells convert sunlight into electricity. PV cells are made from layers of semi-conducting material, usually silicon. When light shines on the cell it creates an electric field across the layers. The stronger the sunshine, the more electricity is produced. Groups of cells are mounted together in panels or modules which can be mounted on a roof. Most PV systems are made up of panels that fit on top of an existing roof, but solar tiles are also available. A typical domestic installation has a capacity of up to 4kW.
- Heat pumps – devices that use a small amount of electricity to absorb the natural heat from a cold space and release it in a warmer one. It does this by employing the same method of heat transfer as a fridge, only in reverse. Additionally, reversible heat pumps can provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. Heat pumps can utilise air as the cold space source or ground.
- Solar thermal panels – these absorb the sun’s energy and use it to heat household water, typically supplying up to 70% of hot water requirements.
- Biomass boilers – these use natural materials sourced from plants, wood and other living organisms, that can be used alongside combustion to produce heat, or can be converted into fuel to power boilers.
Meet The Expert
This report is written by Claudia Preedy, Mintel’s Senior B2B Analyst. Claudia joined Mintel in October 2013. She writes UK industrial and B2B reports. Claudia has over nine years’ experience researching B2B markets, identifying market trends, analysing the impact of the regulatory, economic and political environment and providing market forecasts. Claudia holds a Master’s degree in Marketing Management.
While the outlook for the market is positive, due to long-term structural growth drivers, affordability and a lack of installers remain key limiting factors.
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Executive Summary
- Opportunities for the residential small scale renewables market
- Innovative finance options to boost uptake of small scale renewable technologies
- Growth opportunities in housebuilding sector
- Widespread adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps to propel the solar-plus-storage market
- Market dynamics and outlook
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- Market size
- Graph 1: MCS-certified installations of small-scale renewable technologies, 2019-24
- Solar PV dominates residential small scale renewables installations
- Graph 2: installations of MCS-certified residential small scale renewable technologies, by type, 2023
- Outlook for residential solar PV deployment remains positive
- Graph 3: forecast residential solar PV installations, 2023-27
- Heat pump installation forecast to increase fivefold between 2024 and 2028
- Graph 4: forecast residential heat pump installations, 2024-28
- Technological advancements and smart tariffs will help reduce heat pump running costs
- What consumers want and why
- Majority of homeowners do not have any small scale renewables installed
- Graph 5: ownership of residential small scale renewable technologies, 2024
- One-in-three homeowners consider installing solar panels
- Graph 6: types of small scale renewable technologies installations being considered as a potential purchase, 2024
- Older homeowners less likely to consider small scale renewable technologies
- Graph 7: types of small scale renewable technologies installations being considered as a potential purchase, by age group, 2024
- Cost is the main deterrent to adoption
- Graph 8: reasons for not considering installing residential small scale renewable technologies, 2024
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Market Dynamics
- Market size
- Introduction
- MCS-certified domestic installations up by 40% in 2023
- Installed capacity reaches over 1.6 million in mid-2024
- Solar PV accounts for majority of installations
- Wales has highest household penetration of residential small scale renewables
- Graph 9: household penetration of small-scale renewables, by country, 2024
- Solar PV
- Residential solar PV installations surge in 2023
- Soaring energy prices boost demand for residential solar PV
- Domestic solar PV capacity reaches 5GW
- Graph 10: residential solar PV capacity installed in the UK, 2019-24
- Residential solar PV market by value
- Graph 11: residential solar PV market value, 2020-24
- 2024 sees market demand dip after 2022-23 boom
- Solar PV installations by property type
- Graph 12: MCS-certified solar PV installations, by property type, 2009-24
- Solar PV installations by tenure type
- Graph 13: MCS-certified solar PV installations, by tenure type, 2009-24
- Residential solar PV deployment forecast
- Graph 14: forecast residential solar PV installations, 2023-27
- Outlook for residential solar PV market remains optimistic
- Residential battery energy storage systems
- Overview
- Residential BESS capacity hits 1GWh mark
- Graph 15: residential battery storage market, 2019-23
- Residential BESS market set for sustained growth
- Graph 16: residential battery storage capacity forecast, 2024-28
- Launch of more innovative finance options for solar-plus-storage systems
- Heat pumps
- Overview
- Suitability
- Cost and lack of installers largest barriers to heat pump uptake
- Technological advancements and smart tariffs will help reduce running costs
- Policy uncertainty and low consumer engagement puts constraint on supply chain
- Air source heat pumps dominate residential heat pump installations
- Graph 17: installations of MCS-certified heat pumps for domestic use, 2019-24
- UK market for heat pumps
- Graph 18: market size for heat pumps for domestic use, 2020-24
- Heat pump installations by property type
- Graph 19: MCS certified heat pump installations, by property type, 2009-24
- Heat pump installations by tenure type
- Graph 20: MCS certified heat pump installations, by tenure type, 2009-24
- Residential heat pumps market set for sustained growth
- Air-source heat pumps set to dominate installations
- Three million installations required over next five years to meet climate targets
- Biomass boilers
- Overview
- Installations of biomass boilers for domestic use
- Graph 21: installations of MCS-certified biomass boilers for domestic use, 2019-24
- Market for biomass boilers
- Graph 22: market size for biomass boilers for domestic use, 2020-24
- Biomass boiler installations forecast
- Graph 23: forecast residential biomass boiler installations, 2024-28
- Solar thermal
- Overview
- Installations of solar thermal for domestic use
- Graph 24: installations of MCS-certified solar thermal for domestic use, 2019-24
- Market for solar thermal
- Graph 25: market size for solar thermal for domestic use, 2020-24
- Solar thermal installation forecast
- Graph 26: residenial solar thermal installations forecast, 2024-28
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Market Drivers
- Macro-economic factors
- Economic output has stagnated since the cost of living crisis began
- Graph 27: UK Gross Domestic Product, quarterly-on-quarterly change, Q1 2021-Q1 2024
- GDP forecast
- Graph 28: GDP growth, OBR versus independent forecast averages, 2024-28
- Falling inflation has reduced pressure on household finances
- Graph 29: CPI inflation rate, 2021-24
- Interest rates expected to fall in 2024, but borrowing pressures will remain
- Consumer sentiment: the recovery has slowed
- Graph 30: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-24
- Consumer confidence has trended upwards but remains fragile
- Graph 31: the financial confidence index, 2016-24
- Regulatory and legislative environment
- Net Zero by 2050 target
- New Labour government pledges a clean power system by 2030
- Labour’s Warm Homes Plan will help more households install heat pumps
- Labour government likely to support Clean Heat Market Mechanism
- The Future Homes Standard
- Future Homes Standard consultation
- Government interventions through grants and incentive schemes
- Feed-in Tariffs
- Smart Export Guarantee
- Domestic Renewable Heat Incentive
- Help to Heat Schemes
- The Boiler Upgrade Scheme
- Labour government expected to support BUS
- Sustainable Warmth Competition
- Home Upgrade Grant
- Green Homes Local Authority Delivery
- The Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund
- The Energy Company Obligation
- Green Home Finance Accelerator Programme
- New housebuilding
- The UK’s housing shortage
- Labour government prioritises planning reforms to tackle housing shortage
- Housing completions
- Graph 32: housing completions in England, by sector, 1990-23
- Slowdown in housing construction
- Housebuilding activity expected to pick up in 2025
- Housing stock characteristics
- Terraced and semi-detached houses make up over half of England’s housing stock
- Graph 33: composition of housing stock in England, by type of property, 2022
- Age of housing stock in England
- Graph 34: housing stock distribution in England, by age, 2022
- Detached houses account for nearly a quarter of Scottish housing stock
- Age of housing stock in Scotland, Wales and NI
- Graph 35: housing stock distribution in Scotland, by age, 2022
- Boiler systems with radiators are the dominant primary heating system
- Graph 36: types of primary heating systems, in England, 2021
- Current insulation levels and remaining potential
- Graph 37: remaining potential to insulate the housing stock in GB, 2023
- RMI Expenditure
- Public housing
- Graph 38: RMI expenditure on public housing, 2019-23
- Government funding to decarbonise socially rented homes
- Private housing RMI expenditure
- Graph 39: RMI expenditure on private housing, 2019-23
- Private housing RMI shows resilience, but short-term outlook is less certain
- Domestic energy prices
- Domestic energy bills remain high
- Graph 40: average domestic gas and electricity bills, 2017-23
- High electricity prices stimulate demand in green technologies…
- …with the exception of heat pumps
- Adoption of electric vehicles
- Take-up of EVs driven by fleet demand, but consumer demand softens
- Graph 41: hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric new car registrations, by type, units, 2018 and 2023
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What Consumers Want And Why
- Adoption of residential small scale renewable technologies
- Solar panels are the most popular renewables technology installed by homeowners…
- …although majority of homeowners do not have any small scale renewables installed
- Ownership more prevalent among higher income households
- Graph 42: ownership of residential small scale renewable technologies, by household income, 2024
- Types of residential small scale technologies being considered
- One-in-three homeowners would consider installing solar panels
- Graph 43: types of small scale renewable technologies installations being considered as a potential purchase, 2024
- Older homeowners less likely to consider small scale renewable technologies
- Graph 44: types of small scale renewable technologies installations being considered as a potential purchase, by age group, 2024
- Homeowners with mortgages more likely to consider small scale renewable technologies
- Graph 45: types of small scale renewable technologies installations being considered as a potential purchase, by housing situation, 2024
- Reasons for not considering installing small scale renewable technologies
- Cost is a significant deterrent
- Graph 46: reasons for not considering installing residential small scale renewable technologies, 2024
- Consumer engagement
- Majority of homeowners are aware of government grants for heat pumps
- Graph 47: engagement with small scale renewable technologies, 2024
- Millennials are most likely to consider a heat pump when current boiler needs replacing…
- Graph 48: homeowners considering installing a heat pump when current boiler needs replacing, by generation, 2024
- …with higher income households also interested in replacing boiler with heat pump
- Graph 49: homeowners considering installing a heat pump when current boiler needs replacing, by household income, 2024
- Attitudes towards residential small scale renewable technologies
- Home energy efficiency is high on homeowners’ agenda
- Graph 50: attitudes towards residential small scale renewable technologies, 2024
- Strong public support for solar panels on new homes
- Heat pumps require an effective information campaign to improve perceptions and uptake
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Competitive landscape
- Solar PV
- Solar PV installation industry remains highly fragmented
- MCS-certified contractors
- Graph 51: number of MCS-certified solar PV contractors, 2012-24
- Skills shortages remain a challenge
- Initiatives to help tackle skills gap
- Acquisitional activity
- China accounts for 80% of the world’s solar manufacturing capacity
- UK solar industry commits to sustainable supply chains pledge
- Heat pumps
- Qualified heat pump installers
- Graph 52: number of MCS-certified heat pump contractors, 2012-24
- Two-thirds of heat pumps installed in the UK are manufactured abroad
- Key heat pump suppliers in UK market
- Boiler manufacturers diversify into heat pumps
- Energy suppliers step up efforts to make heat pump installations more affordable
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Appendix
- Supplementary data
- Solar PV average installation costs
- Graph 53: average cost of MCS-certified domestic solar PV installations, 2019-2024
- Voucher applications under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme
- Voucher applications under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (cont.)
- Ofgem Price Cap development
- Report scope and definitions
- Market definition
- Market definition (cont.)
- Abbreviations and terms
- Generations
- Methodology
- B2B report methodology
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