Consumers confidence remains a mixed picture. While there has been some recovery in consumer confidence in recent months, the cost-of-living crisis continues to cast a long shadow, with a prolonged recovery period for many consumers. The change in government has not significantly impacted consumer sentiment, with polarised views on how the Labour win will impact the economy, with the narrative that there remain tough times ahead dampening willingness to spend.
Retail sales have shown some positive momentum, with consecutive months of volume growth providing a much-needed boost for retailers. The improved weather in July and August, along with major events like the Euros and the Olympics, has contributed to this uplift, fostering both value and volume growth. Online sales have continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace, with traditional store-based retailers capturing the largest share of this market.
The grocery sector seen sales growth slow, tied to easing inflation, however, there was a notable return to volume growth in August, driven by smaller-basket and food-to-go purchases. Demand in the fashion sector remains weak, although there was some improvement in August, while home demand remains constrained, although some improvement in the housing market is feeding through to DIY and flooring specialists.
August brought a second successive month of value and volume growth for the retail sector, and meant the summer ended in far better terms than it had started.
Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
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executive summary
- Inflation edges up but real income growth continues
- Graph 1: real wages growth, annual % change in wage growth vs inflation, 2019-24
- Financial wellbeing remains a mixed picture
- Graph 2: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-24
- Back-to-back months of volume growth bring some relief to retailers
- Graph 3: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- Slower pace of online growth continues
- Graph 4: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2023-24
- Convenience rising on the agenda in grocery
- Graph 5: “When it comes to grocery shopping, I’m more worried about saving time than saving money”, 2023-24
- Year-on-year Lidl makes largest market share gains
- Graph 6: leading grocery retailers, market share among spending within cohort, 2024
- Weather hits demand for seasonal fashion lines hard
- Graph 7: outwear items purchased in the last three months, June 2023 and July 2024
- Graph 8: fashion items purchased in the last three months, June 2023 and July 2024
- Some positive signs for the property market will unlock demand
- Emerging home brands show there is demand in the market
- Graph 9: selected non-food retailers, growth in customer numbers within cohort in the last year, 2023-24
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Market environment and consumer sentiment
- Market environment
- The UK economy grows for two consecutive quarters, but outlook remains difficult
- Graph 10: change in UK GDP (real terms), by quarter, 2023-24
- Inflation edges up, but real income growth continues
- Graph 11: real wages growth, annual % change in wage growth vs inflation, 2019-24
- Consumers split on the impact of the change in government
- Graph 12: perceived impact of result of the UK general election, 2024
- Consumer sentiment
- Financial wellbeing remains a mixed picture
- Graph 13: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-24
- Polarisation in financial position is being amplified
- Graph 14: “how does your own financial situation compare to how it was a year or so ago?”, by household income, August 2024
- Uptick in longer-term confidence among high earners means more opportunity to trade this group in Q4
- Consumers are slightly more confident about the future
- Graph 15: the financial confidence index, 2016-24
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UK Retail sales
- Retail sales performance
- Back-to-back months of volume growth bring some relief to retailers
- Graph 16: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- Sport and sun help unleash some additional demand
- Euros creates some uptick in demand, but ‘alternative’ purchase methods are a concern for retailers
- Graph 17: Euro 2024 behaviour, 2024
- Non-store players continue recovery
- Graph 18: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, by core category, 2024
- The interplay between stores and online
- Slower pace of online growth continues
- Graph 19: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2023-24
- Store-based players continue to claim the majority share of the online market
- Graph 20: share of online sales, by type of retail operation, 2021-24
- Online share edges up year-on-year
- Graph 21: online sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2022-24
- In-store claims highest share of non-food sales for over a year in August
- Graph 22: estimated share of total non-food sales, store versus online and other non-store, 2023-24
- AI already playing a significant role in browsing behaviour
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Grocery shopping behaviour
- Value growth eases in line with inflation, but at present is causing no meaningful uptick in underlying demand
- Graph 23: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- Convenience rising on the agenda
- Graph 24: “When it comes to grocery shopping, I’m more worried about saving time than saving money”, 2023-24
- Sainsbury’s goes big while Waitrose aims small, with both investing into physical
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Non-food shopping behaviour
- July and August bring stronger demand for non-food specialists
- Graph 25: all non-food store-based retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- Fashion
- August brings a little respite for the embattled store-based fashion sector
- Graph 26: all store-based fashion retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- Weather hits demand for seasonal lines hard
- Graph 27: outwear items purchased in the last three months, June 2023 and July 2024
- Graph 28: fashion items purchased in the last three months, June 2023 and July 2024
- Rising interest in ‘swapping’ a reflection of Gen Z’s value-led savviness
- Graph 29: fashion shopping behaviours, by Gen Z, Younger Millennials and all, 2024
- Home
- Overall demand at home specialists worsens across the last three months
- Graph 30: all store-based household goods retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- Some positive signs for the property market will unlock demand
- The bedroom is the focus for many consumers, and retailers can win by focusing on wellness
- Graph 31: rooms where spending is planned for in the next 12 months, 2024
- Health and beauty
- While sales slowed in August, health and beauty remains the star performer
- Graph 32: all store-based health and beauty retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- Dupe trend continues to be strong in fragrances, but brands can use storytelling to fight back
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Launch activity and innovation
- John Lewis revives ‘Never Knowingly Undersold’
- Nick Carroll – Director of Retail Insight
- Holland & Barrett pilots world-first express DNA test service in-store
- Sam Nguyen – Retail Analyst
- Schuh ramps up customer inclusivity with single-shoe purchases
- Tamara Sender Ceron, Associate Director – Fashion Retail
- Tesco more than doubles the size of its marketplace while TikTok ups fees
- Nick Carroll – Director of Retail Insight
- Morrisons extends Too Good To Go partnership to convenience stores
- Bridget McCusker – Retail Analyst
- Dunelm launches online textile takeback scheme with The Salvation Army
- Emily Viberg – Retail Analyst
- ASOS introduces AI chatbot for shoppers to haggle prices
- Nick Carroll – Director of Retail Insight
- Amazon gets the green light to launch drone delivery in the UK this year
- Bridget McCusker – Retail Analyst
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Special focus
- An introduction to Snoop SpendMapper
- TikTok Shop sees rapid growth as social commerce climbs on the agenda
- Dunelm has seen the quickest growth in customer numbers in the past twelve months
- Graph 33: leading non-food UK retailers, growth in spend and customer numbers within cohort, 2023/24
- New customers still driving the disruptive players
- Graph 34: fastest growing major non-food retailers and platforms, monthly number of customers within cohort, 2023-24
- Graph 35: fastest growing major non-food retailers and platforms, monthly number of transactions within cohort, 2023-24
- Ikea has the largest average basket size in the non-food sector
- Graph 36: leading non-food retailers, average transactional value (ATV) within cohort, in the last year, 2023-24
- Significant seasonal upswing for Amazon Prime
- Graph 37: Amazon Prime month-on-month change in customer numbers within cohort, 2022-24
- Emerging home brands show there is demand in the market
- Graph 38: selected non-food retailers, growth in customer numbers within cohort in the last year, 2023-24
- Ocado’s performance demonstrates upswing in confidence from higher-income consumers
- Growing transaction a positive for small-basket specialists
- Graph 39: leading grocery retailers, ATV and YOY change in ATV within cohort, 2023-24
- Graph 40: leading grocery retailers, customer growth and number of transactions growth within cohort, 2023-24
- Year-on-year, Lidl makes largest market share gains
- Graph 41: leading grocery retailers, market share among spending within cohort, 2024
- Growth in specialists further underlines that confidence is recovering
- Graph 42: selected grocery and associated category retailers, growth in customer numbers within cohort, 2023-24
- Snoop SpendMapper methodology
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Further resources
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