There was improvement in consumer confidence in 2024, although highly polarised between higher and lower income households, helped by the now 18 month trend of real income growth.
However, this has not, as traditionally expected, led to a significant uptick in retail spending, with consumers remaining highly cautious and the household savings ratio continuing to tick-up. Global events in Q1 2025 have only entrenched this view, meaning that while there is growing latent consumer demand, unlocking it remains tough for retailers.
A better, if unspectacular, festive period shows consumers will spend when season or tradition demands it, but discretionary and impulse purchasing remains difficult to unlock. This has particularly challenged the fashion sector, where combined with caution around spending we have seen a greater focus on quality and ‘less is more’ from shoppers, hitting volumes.
A better if unspectacular festive period highlighted that additional demand is in the market, but unlocking it in an increasingly uncertain world remains challenging.
Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
Collapse All
-
KEY FINDINGS
- Economic prospects continue to look lacklustre, as global politics creates uncertainty
- Graph 1: change in UK GDP (real terms), by quarter, 2023-24
- Confidence remains highly polarised, but some improvement is coming through
- Graph 2: “how does your own financial situation compare to how it was a year or so ago?”, by household income, 2024
- Sales slow in January as consumers recover from festive period
- Graph 3: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-25
- Online penetration stable across the final months of the year
- Graph 4: online sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2022-25
- A mixed picture for the grocery sector as inflation persists, leading to a renewed war on price
- Graph 5: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- Store-based non-food players end 2024 strongly
- Graph 6: all non-food store-based retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-25
- Quality rising on the agenda in fashion
-
MARKET ENVIRONMENT AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT
- Market environment
- Economic prospects continue to look lacklustre…
- Graph 7: change in UK GDP (real terms), by quarter, 2023-24
- …as world events create further uncertainty
- Real income growth continues
- Graph 8: real wages growth, annual % change in wage growth vs inflation, 2021-25
- Savings ratio climbs as consumers look to create more of a buffer
- Graph 9: households’ saving ration quarterly percentage change, Q1 2019-Q3 2024
- Consumer sentiment
- Day-to-day confidence slowly improving, but long recovery ahead
- Graph 10: the financial wellbeing index, 2019-25
- Confidence remains highly polarised, but some improvement is coming through
- Graph 11: “how does your own financial situation compare to how it was a year or so ago?”, by household income, 2024
- Future financial confidence stabilises
- Graph 12: the financial confidence index, 2019-25
-
UK RETAIL SALES
- Retail sales performance
- Retail sales advance 1.4% in 2024
- Sales slow in January as consumers recover from the festive period
- Graph 13: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-25
- A stable but unspectacular festive period for retailers
- Graph 14: all retail sales,excluding fuel, non-seasonally adjusted, November and December combined, 2019-24
- Store-based non-food retail grows ahead of non-store in the final quarter
- Graph 15: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, by core category, 2024-25
- The interplay between stores and online
- Online sales growth slows in the final months of the year
- Graph 16: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2023-25
- Online penetration stable across the final months of the year
- Graph 17: online sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2022-25
- Store-based players claim a recent record share through peak trade
- Graph 18: share of online sales, by type of retail operation, 2022-25
- Share of non-food sales coming through stores holds steady
- Graph 19: estimated share of total non-food sales, store versus online and other non-store, 2023-25
-
GROCERY SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR
- A mixed picture for the grocery sector as inflation persists…
- Graph 20: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
- …leading a renewed war on price
- Premium convenience remains a key opportunity in 2025
-
NON-FOOD SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR
- Store-based non-food players end 2024 strongly
- Graph 21: all non-food store-based retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-25
- Fashion
- Festive period offers little respite for the fashion sector
- Graph 22: all store-based fashion retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-25
- Number buying no fashion items at all continues to be elevated
- Graph 23: outerwear items purchased in the last three months, 2023 and 2024
- Graph 24: fashion items purchased in the last three months, 2023-24
- Quality rising on the agenda
- Home
- Big Black Friday helps home retailers end 2024 with some cheer
- Graph 25: all store-based household goods retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-25
- Electricals demand picks up….
- …but greater adoption of ‘not new’ will hurt value sales
- Health and beauty
- A poor start to 2025 for health and beauty retailers
- Graph 26: all store-based health and beauty retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-25
- Significant opportunities exist for retailers to drive further service use in-store…
- …expanding to become a trusted partner in overall wellness journeys
-
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- Tesco trials personalised Clubcard Prices
- Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
- Primark to complete click-and-collect rollout by summer
- Bridget McCusker, Retail Analyst
- Lidl to sell on TikTok Shop in a supermarket first
- Stephen Mayles, Retail Analyst
- Loopi launches and aims to revolutionise second-hand fashion in the UK
- Tamara Sender Ceron, Associate Director – Fashion Retail
- TALA to open first-ever flagship on London’s Carnaby Street
- Natalie MacMillan, Senior Retail Analyst
- Louis Vuitton to launch its first beauty line this autumn
- Shiyan Zering, Beauty and Personal Care Analyst
- Primark and Pinterest partner for new trend-led homeware range
- Sam Nguyen, Senior Retail Analyst
- Co-op unveils rapid delivery app to help indie retailers compete online
- Steve Mayles, Retail Analyst
- Amazon opens a new store focused on health and beauty
- Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
- Frasers Group introduces credit and loyalty offer to Marks Electrical
- Sam Nguyen, Retail Analyst
-
SPECIAL FOCUS: DIGITAL PRODUCT PASSPORTS
- EU Legislation is coming…
- …but sustainability is not front of mind for consumers
- Graph 27: who is responsible for sustainability in fashion, 2024
- Designing DPPs with the customer in mind
- Durability is more important than environmental impact
- Pilots can help brands find the right solution
- Premium brands can benefit from authentic storytelling about product provenance
- Loake rolls out DPPs for all footwear
- Monetising the full lifecycle of a product
- Bergans of Norway focuses on end of life options
- In an era of dupes, DPPs can help brands prove their authenticity
- Other sectors will also be impacted
- How DPPs can be a catalyst for innovation
-
FURTHER RESOURCES:
- Snoop SpendMapper methodology
Market Intelligence Made Easier With Mintel
The first Mintel Market Intelligence report was published over 50 years ago. Since then, we have provided our unique insights and understanding of consumers, innovation and global markets to thousands of customers worldwide. Here’s why our customers rely on Mintel:
- Gain a comprehensive, 360-degree view of the market: Mintel reports blend consumer research, market forecasts, product innovation tracking, and competitive analysis, allowing businesses to see every angle of their industry and identify new opportunities quickly.
- Make decisions with confidence, grounded in robust data: Each report draws on up-to-date, reliable information from trusted sources and industry experts, ensuring your strategies are based on solid evidence rather than speculation.
- Benefit from expert analysis and practical recommendations: Mintel’s reports are written by experienced analysts who interpret complex data and provide clear, actionable insights you can trust to guide your next moves.
- Stay ahead with actionable intelligence on market trends and consumer behaviour: By combining fresh research with long-term market monitoring, our reports help businesses anticipate changes and adapt strategically. So you’re prepared to make informed decisions and drive growth.
What goes into a Mintel Market Intelligence Report?
Curious about how a Market Intelligence report comes together? We like to think of it as building a detailed puzzle. We start with individual pieces: data from consumers, market statistics, industry trends, and online conversations. Then our expert analysts add world-class human insight and industry knowledge. The pieces are assembled to reveal a clear, comprehensive picture of a market.
The Four Pillars of Our Research
We use a combination of four main research methods when creating our reports, each adding a valuable perspective:
- Consumer Research: Direct surveys with real people, giving us clear, current insights into what people think and do.
- Desk Research: In-depth review of trusted data sources. We use this rich database, plus powerful internal tools that track new products and market sizes, to detect trends and guide forecasts.
- Trade Research: Insights from conversations with industry experts. Their real-world experience helps us understand what’s happening behind the scenes.
- Brand and Social Media Research: Analysis of online opinions and trends. This lets us spot trends, measure brand sentiment, and capture feedback in real time, adding further depth to our research.
Bringing It All Together
Each of these four pillars provides a different piece of the puzzle. Consumer research tells us what customers think, desk research provides the factual framework, trade research offers an insider’s view, and social media analysis reveals public sentiment.
Our expert analysts are skilled in weaving these diverse data streams together. They apply a range of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques to uncover the deeper story, connecting the dots to deliver clear, actionable insights. This comprehensive, multi-layered process is how we transform raw data into a market intelligence report you can trust to inform your most important business decisions.
For a closer look at a Mintel Market Intelligence Report, take a look at the sample PDF report below:
Please Note: All of the figures, graphs, and tables in this sample report have been redacted.
£ 2,195 (Excl.Tax)
-
Download today with instant access
Pay via credit card or invoice (net 30 payment terms)
-
Multiple formats provided
We send a PDF, Powerpoint and Excel Databook straight to your inbox. An interactive version of the report is also available on our online platform
-
Interactive databook included
Focus on the data that matters most to you with a customisable databook avaliable on our platform
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn moreTrusted by global industry leaders
When I’m investigating specific sectors I tend to use Mintel reports for their forecasting, which I’ve always found to be very accurate.
They also offer really broad and deep coverage in their reports. They are very, very detailed. For example, we were able to gain insight across a wide range of business areas from just one report, proving that Mintel is excellent value for money.
So overall, it’s the level of detail and the quality of forecasting that really stand out for me.
Rebecca Green, Market Insight Manager, Wincanton
We use Mintel Reports, mostly for financial services and ecommerce markets, plus a few retail and technology ones.
As a leading payments provider, we value additional insights into consumer behaviour, opinions and trends that are shaping the many different markets we operate in. Mintel is a very good and very quick way for us to obtain those insights.
We use Mintel to get a view on where a particular market is going, which can support us in product development and help us identify opportunities or indeed risks, it is a very useful barometer of a market’s potential.
Andrew Neeson, Market Intelligence Manager, VocaLink
Working in a customer-obsessed organization means that data and insights have to be at our fingertips. Mintel’s reports help us support anecdotes with real quantifiable insights. The summary sections (which I really like) helps save time by giving a birds eye view of the content before spending time combing through the pages.
Our business review discussions are strengthened by the relevancy of the reports to help us better understand our customers. In addition, the customer service received from the team (especially in crunch periods) makes the process of understanding customer behavior even better.
Ngozi Ngonadi-Nkwoji, Senior Marketing Manager, Amazon
We use Mintel to inform our thinking and reinforce strategy. If you’re presenting new ideas, it’s essential they are underpinned by robust data and evidence, and clearly rooted in fact.
Mintel gives us all that. It’s a great brand and one that is trusted by clients.
Marie Stafford, European Director, The Innovation Group, VML
We have such a great working relationship with Mintel on lots of different levels. As an insight partner, they have helped us to develop our business planning in specific categories as well as supporting our creative process but they’ve also been super helpful with facilitating our events in their inspirational offices near St Paul’s.
They’re an innovative company, with a client-focused team that always delivers.
Abby Carvosso, Group Managing Director, Bauer Media Group
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn more
