The first five months of 2025 for the retail sector have been defined by a stark contrast between on-the-ground spending and future uncertainty in supply and demand.
Day-to-day consumer financial confidence has continued to recover, and overall spending has improved. Shoppers are wary about the future and are not oblivious to the uncertainty that global events in the first half of 2025 may have on their finances. But, with little of that currently making its way into the system, the good weather and continued growth in real incomes have seen spending patterns improve for most categories.
However, with inflation climbing in core CPG areas once more, and any additional friction in global trade and supply only likely to add to this, there is awareness within the sector that this may be a brief honeymoon ahead of a tougher second half.
Uncertainty-creating global events have clashed with improved confidence and spending in the first half of 2025.
Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
Collapse All
-
KEY FINDINGS
- Growth beats expectations in Q1, but the first months of 2025 add significant uncertainty
- Graph 1: change in UK GDP (real terms), by quarter, 2023-25
- Steady recovery in day-to-day confidence continues
- Graph 2: the financial wellbeing index, 2019-25
- Early months of 2025 bring stronger demand for retailers
- Graph 3: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Online sales mixed as better weather brings shoppers onto the high street
- Graph 4: online sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2022-25
- Bigger-ticket recovery begins, but much ground to be made up
- Graph 5: major store-based household goods retail category sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value, 2025
- Grocery sector feels the pressure of inflation
- Graph 6: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Demand falls away from the specialists BPC market
- Graph 7: all store-based health and beauty retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
-
MARKET ENVIRONMENT AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT
- Market environment
- Growth beats expectations in Q1…
- Graph 8: change in UK GDP (real terms), by quarter, 2023-25
- …but Q1 also adds significant uncertainty
- Real income growth continues
- Graph 9: real wages growth, annual % change in wage growth vs inflation, 2021-25
- A closer relationship with the EU should provide some inflationary relief
- Graph 10: headline inflation and inflation in key consumer goods categories, 2025
- Consumer sentiment
- Steady recovery in day-to-day confidence continues
- Graph 11: the financial wellbeing index, 2019-25
- Market remains highly polarised but we are seeing a broader-based recovery
- Graph 12: ‘how does your own financial situation compare to how it was a year or so ago?’, by household income, 2025
- Future financial confidence hits the highest point in over two years despite uncertainty
- Graph 13: the financial confidence index, 2019-25
- Retail rocked by cyber attacks
-
UK RETAIL SALES
- Retail sales performance
- Early months of 2025 bring stronger demand for retailers
- Graph 14: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Later-falling Easter helps address volume decline in grocery
- Graph 15: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, by core category, 2024-25
- Retail not at the front of the queue for additional spending
- Number actively saving and reducing debts climbs
- Graph 16: recent and planned financial activity, May 2024
- Graph 17: recent and planned financial activity, May 2025
- The interplay between stores and online
- Online sales grow in 2025…
- Graph 18: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2024-25
- …but penetration dips overall in the early months of 2025
- Graph 19: online sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2022-25
- Stronger footfall drivers store-based online sales
- Graph 20: share of online sales, by type of retail operation, 2022-25
- Share of non-food sales coming through stores flat so far in 2025
- Graph 21: estimated share of total non-food sales, store versus online and other non-store, 2024-25
-
GROCERY SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR
- Grocery sector feels the pressure of inflation
- Graph 22: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Opportunities for health and going bold to combat out-of-home
- Graph 23: attitudes towards evening meals, 2025
- Single-use vape bans comes into effect and retailers need to lead on education
-
NON-FOOD SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR
- Store-based non-food continues to see a recovery
- Graph 24: all non-food store-based retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Fashion
- Slight up-tick in fashion demand but market remains tough
- Graph 25: all store-based fashion retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Number of fashion items purchased improves, driven by higher earners
- Graph 26: outerwear items purchased in the last three months, 2024-25
- Graph 27: fashion items purchased in the last three months, 2024-25
- Footwear at the forefront for heightened supply chain awareness
- Home
- The home market is now seeing sustained recovery
- Graph 28: all store-based household goods retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Bigger-ticket recovery begins, but much ground needs to be made up
- Graph 29: major store-based household goods retail category sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value, 2025
- Refurbished and second-hand will be in line for further growth should inflation tick-up
- Health and beauty
- Demand falls away from the specialists BPC market
- Graph 30: all store-based health and beauty retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Direct purchasing ticks up
- Graph 31: beauty tracker, shopping behaviours in the last three months, 2024-25
- Mix-and-match gift sets a key opportunity ahead of Q4
-
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- Superdrug expands online marketplace to include fashion brands
- Tamara Sender-Ceron, Associate Director – Fashion Retail
- Morrisons tests aisle roaming bots to check products
- Emily Viberg, Senior Retail Analyst
- ASOS launches next-day locker delivery
- Bridget McCusker, Retail Analyst
- Pets at Home introduces new in-store subscription service
- Sam Nguyen, Senior Retail Analyst
- JD.com launches new retailer JoyBuy into the UK
- Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
- Lidl pilots click, reserve and collect on middle aisle deals for loyalty members
- Steven Mayles, Retail Analyst
- IKEA acquires former Homebase units for new small-format stores
- Sam Nguyen, Senior Retail Analyst
-
SPECIAL FOCUS: IKEA DEBUTS ON OXFORD STREET
- An icon arrives at an iconic location
- A convenient experience
- IKEA gives a nod to history while celebrating its modern self
- A store that represents modern London
- IKEA everywhere
- Reducing friction at every step
- Be bold and be rewarded
-
FURTHER RESOURCES
Market Intelligence Made Easier With Mintel
The first Mintel Market Intelligence report was published over 50 years ago. Since then, we have provided our unique insights and understanding of consumers, innovation and global markets to thousands of customers worldwide. Here’s why our customers rely on Mintel:
- Gain a comprehensive, 360-degree view of the market: Mintel reports blend consumer research, market forecasts, product innovation tracking, and competitive analysis, allowing businesses to see every angle of their industry and identify new opportunities quickly.
- Make decisions with confidence, grounded in robust data: Each report draws on up-to-date, reliable information from trusted sources and industry experts, ensuring your strategies are based on solid evidence rather than speculation.
- Benefit from expert analysis and practical recommendations: Mintel’s reports are written by experienced analysts who interpret complex data and provide clear, actionable insights you can trust to guide your next moves.
- Stay ahead with actionable intelligence on market trends and consumer behaviour: By combining fresh research with long-term market monitoring, our reports help businesses anticipate changes and adapt strategically. So you’re prepared to make informed decisions and drive growth.
What goes into a Mintel Market Intelligence Report?
Curious about how a Market Intelligence report comes together? We like to think of it as building a detailed puzzle. We start with individual pieces: data from consumers, market statistics, industry trends, and online conversations. Then our expert analysts add world-class human insight and industry knowledge. The pieces are assembled to reveal a clear, comprehensive picture of a market.
The Four Pillars of Our Research
We use a combination of four main research methods when creating our reports, each adding a valuable perspective:
- Consumer Research: Direct surveys with real people, giving us clear, current insights into what people think and do.
- Desk Research: In-depth review of trusted data sources. We use this rich database, plus powerful internal tools that track new products and market sizes, to detect trends and guide forecasts.
- Trade Research: Insights from conversations with industry experts. Their real-world experience helps us understand what’s happening behind the scenes.
- Brand and Social Media Research: Analysis of online opinions and trends. This lets us spot trends, measure brand sentiment, and capture feedback in real time, adding further depth to our research.
Bringing It All Together
Each of these four pillars provides a different piece of the puzzle. Consumer research tells us what customers think, desk research provides the factual framework, trade research offers an insider’s view, and social media analysis reveals public sentiment.
Our expert analysts are skilled in weaving these diverse data streams together. They apply a range of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques to uncover the deeper story, connecting the dots to deliver clear, actionable insights. This comprehensive, multi-layered process is how we transform raw data into a market intelligence report you can trust to inform your most important business decisions.
$ 2,995 (Excl.Tax)
-
Download today with instant access
Pay via credit card or invoice (net 30 payment terms)
-
Multiple formats provided
We send a PDF, Powerpoint and Excel Databook straight to your inbox. An interactive version of the report is also available on our online platform
-
Interactive databook included
Focus on the data that matters most to you with a customisable databook avaliable on our platform
-
Save up to 20% when you purchase multiple reports
Discount automatically applied in basket
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn moreTrusted by global industry leaders
We have such a great working relationship with Mintel on lots of different levels. As an insight partner, they have helped us to develop our business planning in specific categories as well as supporting our creative process but they’ve also been super helpful with facilitating our events in their inspirational offices near St Paul’s.
They’re an innovative company, with a client-focused team that always delivers.
Abby Carvosso, Group Managing Director, Bauer Media Group
When I’m investigating specific sectors I tend to use Mintel reports for their forecasting, which I’ve always found to be very accurate.
They also offer really broad and deep coverage in their reports. They are very, very detailed. For example, we were able to gain insight across a wide range of business areas from just one report, proving that Mintel is excellent value for money.
So overall, it’s the level of detail and the quality of forecasting that really stand out for me.
Rebecca Green, Market Insight Manager, Wincanton
There is no question that Mintel is the go-to resource for the best quality market research, but I did not think it was an affordable option for Abacus Marketing to consider. As a small marketing agency, we only work with a few new clients each year.
However, we have a very high-end consultative approach to our work, so we really do need a partner like Mintel to provide the big agency experience we are always aiming to deliver. Our clients come from an incredibly diverse range of industry sectors, so we obviously need access to market research reports from a very wide spectrum of marketplaces – and that is precisely what we got.
Stephen Taylor-Brown, Managing Director, Abacus
We utilize Mintel Reports, Trends and Comperemedia to mine for insights across the numerous business verticals that Epsilon serves, such as CPG, automotive, telecom, healthcare/pharma, retail and financial services.
By integrating Mintel insight into new business opportunities, we have been able to gain the competitive edge necessary to advance partnerships with global brands and key business players.
For our organization, it’s about depth and breadth. Having one without the other doesn’t enable success in our business.
Virginia Harvey, Secondary Research Manager, Epsilon
We use Mintel Reports, mostly for financial services and ecommerce markets, plus a few retail and technology ones.
As a leading payments provider, we value additional insights into consumer behaviour, opinions and trends that are shaping the many different markets we operate in. Mintel is a very good and very quick way for us to obtain those insights.
We use Mintel to get a view on where a particular market is going, which can support us in product development and help us identify opportunities or indeed risks, it is a very useful barometer of a market’s potential.
Andrew Neeson, Market Intelligence Manager, VocaLink
Next Starts Here
Whatever your business needs, we have the solution. From market intelligence reports to customised growth strategies.
Learn more
