UK Retail Trends: Winter 2025
"Retail demand held up well in 2025 despite the uncertain backdrop, but increasingly demanding shoppers and added business costs will keep the pressure on in 2026."
Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
Retail demand has continued to slowly recover, although much of this is coming in the non-food space, as inflation weighs on grocery demand.
Despite pre-Budget concerns consumer confidence has also shown recovery. However, concerns over the UK’s growth prospects and other future events means that shoppers have not shed their savvy behaviours. This has manifested itself into a later picture of festive demand, and with early indications that Black Friday demand was a little lacklustre, will mean more riding on December for retailers to unlock the latent spending within the market.
The prospects for 2026 in terms of demand are uninspiring, in line with those of the economy, but do promise a little more than a year ago. With demand unlikely to take a dramatic move forward, those most successful will be those who can offer a differentiated offer in a mature market.
In the online space, embracing further AI-integration and streamlining of the purchasing process will be critical and a more omnichannel shopper will demand agency in fulfilment. In the physical space, it is important to embrace offering a true experience, one that represents the antidote to an increasingly functional online experience and rewards shoppers time to visit.
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KEY FINDINGS
- What you need to know
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MARKET ENVIRONMENT AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT
- Market environment
- The economy registers minor growth in Q3
- Graph 1: change in UK GDP (real terms), by quarter, 2023-25
- Real income growth slows
- Graph 2: real wages growth, annual % change in wage growth vs inflation, 2022-25
- 2025 Budget asks more from businesses
- Consumer sentiment
- Mixed confidence reflects an uncertain market
- Graph 3: the financial wellbeing index, 2019-25
- Despite high inflation more consumers are feeling better-off
- Graph 4: ‘how does your own financial situation compare to how it was a year or so ago?’, by household income, 2025
- Consumers are more positive about their personal financial prospects than that of the economy
- Graph 5: the financial confidence index, 2019-25
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UK RETAIL SALES
- Retail sales performance
- Volume growth returns as the sector enters the golden quarter
- Graph 6: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Non-foods driving topline growth
- Graph 7: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, by core category, 2024-25
- A mixed Black Friday leaves more opportunity in December
- The interplay between stores and online
- Online sales showing consistent growth
- Graph 8: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2024-25
- Share of retail sales continues to edge up
- Graph 9: online sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2023-25
- Stronger performance from non-food players claims back share
- Graph 10: share of online sales, by type of retail operation, 2023-25
- Non-store gains slowing in non-foods
- Graph 11: estimated share of total non-food sales, in-store vs online and other non-store, 2024-25
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GROCERY SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR
- Value growth returns, but volumes remain under pressure
- Graph 12: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Premium well set for Christmas, with the battle for the discounters to retain shoppers
- Graph 13: leading store-based grocery retailers, growth in spend and customer numbers within the Snoop SpendMapper Cohort, 12 months to November 2025
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NON-FOOD SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR
- Non-food demand builds steadily
- Graph 14: all non-food store-based retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Fashion
- Value growth returns, but fashion continues to face a volume issue
- Graph 15: all store-based fashion retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Opportunity for wardrobe refresh as styles get ‘smarter’
- Graph 16: Mintel Fashion Tracker, clothing/outwear personally purchased in the last three months, 2024-25
- ABF mulls spin-off of Primark
- Graph 17: where consumers have bought clothes for themselves in-store/online in the last 12 months, 2024-25
- Home
- Recovery in home demand continues into the second half
- Graph 18: all store-based household goods retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Bigger-ticket recovery begins, but much ground needs to be made up
- Graph 19: major store-based household goods category retail sales performance, non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value, 2025
- Significant interest in creating more circularity in small appliances
- Health and beauty
- Readjustment in specialist demand continues
- Graph 20: all store-based health and beauty retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2024-25
- Low-cost online players disrupting the online market
- Graph 21: top retailers used to buy BPC products online in the last 12 months, by age and houeshold income, 2025
- Further disruption in the market to come from AI
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LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
- IKEA debuts ‘Life at Home’ services offer to help shoppers move house
- Sam Nguyen, Senior Retail Analyst
- ASOS launches live shopping on its mobile app
- Emily Viberg, Senior Retail Analyst
- TikTok launches Shop Local to champion British food producers
- Emily Viberg, Senior Retail Analyst
- John Lewis to open VIP area for loyalty members in flagship store
- Sam Nguyen, Senior Retail Analyst
- Waitrose opens first Home of Food Lovers concept store
- Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
- John Lewis unveils Gifting Emporium at refurbished Bluewater store
- Emily Viberg, Senior Retail Analyst
- Scamp & Dude launches second-hand marketplace
- Tamara Sender Ceron, Associate Director – Fashion Retail
- Aldi launches new logo to help shoppers make healthier choices
- Natalie Macmillan, Senior Retail Analyst
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SPECIAL FOCUS: WHAT WILL NEXT YEAR’S CONSUMER DEMAND?
- Agenda
- Part One: Function
- A convenience-led nation
- This will underpin further online growth
- Shoppers want to know their time and investment is worth it
- Function will underpin further AI
- There is underlying demand for further AI-based disruption
- Part Two: Experience
- Focus on the joy of in-store shopping
- Ensure that stores represent the best version of the brand
- Create differentiation through creativity
- In-store tech should be part of the experience
- Physical can learn from social commerce
- Physical retail can tap into wellness demand
- Final thoughts
- Key takeaways
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APPENDIX
- Snoop SpendMapper methodology
- Abbreviations
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