UK Retail Trends – Winter 2023
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Black Friday’s distorting power was amplified in a period where shoppers were looking to save. However an uptick in confidence in Q4 created more opportunity and optimism for 2024.
Nick Carroll, Category Director – Retail Insight
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Key Findings
- Consumer sentiment: recovery continues but there remains a long-road ahead
- Graph 1: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-23
- Future confidence is also recovering…
- Graph 2: the financial confidence index, 2016-23
- Volume growth returns in November but the market remains tough
- Graph 3: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- Online continues to outperform wider market
- Graph 4: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2022-23
- Record engagement in Black Friday 2023
- Graph 5: total Black Friday purchasing, by channel, 2022-2023
- Volume decline narrows in the grocery sector
- Graph 6: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- Non-food volumes edge towards positive territory
- Graph 7: all non-food store-based retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
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Market environment and consumer sentiment
- Market environment
- Inflation easing but expected to remain ahead of target in 2024
- Graph 8: CPI inflation rate, 2022-23
- Inflation rate in food more than halved since its peak in March (19.1%)
- Graph 9: inflation, overall index (CPI) and core categories, 2023
- Real incomes seeing marginal growth
- Graph 10: real wages growth, annual % change in wage growth vs inflation, 2016-23
- Overall air of caution remains
- Graph 11: spending priorities if financial situation significantly, July and November 2023
- Interest rates adding to consumer uncertainty
- Graph 12: “Do you think that a significant increase in interest rates would have a positive or negative impact on your financial situation?”, 2023
- Consumer sentiment
- Consumer sentiment: recovery continues but there remains a long-road ahead
- Graph 13: the financial wellbeing index, 2016-23
- Financial position improves throughout 2023
- Graph 14: changes in financial situation over the past year trend data, 2023
- Future confidence is also recovering…
- Graph 15: the financial confidence index, 2016-23
- …but this recovery is polarised based on income
- Graph 16: ‘I feel pretty confident that I’ll be OK’ in the coming year, 2019-23
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UK Retail Sales
- Retail sales performance
- Volume growth returns in November but the market remains tough
- Graph 17: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- The distorting power of Black Friday greater than ever
- Online-only the driver of growth in November
- Graph 18: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, by core category, 2023
- The interplay between online and stores
- Online continues to outperform wider market
- Graph 19: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2022-23
- Store-based players reclaim share of online spend in November
- Graph 20: share of online sales, by type of retail operation, 2020-2023
- High street suffers as shoppers look to online for Black Friday deals
- Non-store claims highest share of non-food demand since 2021 in November
- Graph 21: estimated share of total non-food sales, store versus online and other non-store, 2022-23
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Grocery shopping behaviour
- Volume decline narrows in the grocery sector
- Graph 22: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- Main shop only behaviours tick-up in final quarter
- Graph 23: household grocery shopping habits, 2018-23
- Discounters maintain enlarged position in the market
- Graph 24: format where the most is spent in a typical month, 2021-23
- Supermarkets gain secondary shops in second half
- Graph 25: other types of grocery stores used in a typical month, 2022-23
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Non-food shopping behaviour
- Non-food volumes edge toward positive territory
- Graph 26: all non-food store-based retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- Fashion
- A tougher second half of the year for store-based fashion retailers
- Graph 27: all store-based fashion retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- Outerwear purchasing ticks-up moving into the final quarter
- Graph 28: Mintel Fashion Tracker, personal fashion purchases in the past three months, 2022-23
- New season brings opportunity for AW lines but weather creates mixed picture
- Graph 29: Mintel Fashion Tracker, outwear purchased in the last three months, 2022-23
- Home
- Overall home demand weakens
- Graph 30: all store-based household goods retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- Performance across all categories remains tough, but there is optimism for 2024
- Health and beauty
- Strong demand for health and beauty in November
- Graph 31: all store-based health and beauty retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2022-23
- Social media key to driving impulse in 2023
- Graph 32: the impact of social media on BPC, 2023
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Launch activity and innovation for Q3 2023
- Key headlines for Q4 2023
- Boots Beauty concept store opens at Battersea Power Station
- Tamara Sender Ceron, Associate Director – Fashion Retail:
- Wilko returns to the high street as new owner plans aggressive store rollout
- Bridget McCusker, Retail Analyst:
- Made.com also returns to the high street
- Sam Nguyen, Retail Analyst:
- More retailers add AI-driven digital assistants to their arsenal
- Bridget McCusker, Retail Analyst:
- More retailers look to tap into the ‘Green Friday’ trend
- Emily Viberg, Retail Analyst:
- Sainsbury’s launches third-party fashion hubs
- Tamara Sender Ceron, Associate Director – Fashion Retail:
- Decathlon rolls out its buyback service to all UK stores
- Utku Tansel, Retail Analyst:
- Notable takeovers in Q4
- Tamara Sender Ceron, Associate Director – Fashion Retail:
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Special focus: Black Friday
- Record engagement in Black Friday 2023
- Graph 33: total Black Friday purchasing, by channel, 2021-2023
- Improving confidence among high earners drives purchasing
- Majority of Black Friday demand pre-planned
- Fashion top purchase during Black Friday
- Graph 34: products purchased during Black Friday, 2023
- John Lewis gains Black Friday shoppers
- Graph 35: retailers shopped with during Black Friday, 2022-23
- Green Friday connecting with shoppers
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