Topics Analysed in this Report
- Historic market development
- The revival of the rooftop solar PV market on the back of high electricity costs
- Drivers and challenges in the rooftop and ground-mount sectors
- How the market is expected to develop over the next five years
Expert Insights from a B2B Analyst
Sustained strong solar PV deployment is forecast for the coming years, with all main market segments (ground-mount, residential and non-residential roof-top solar PV) in high growth mode. Growth is fuelled by increased interest in self-generation amid high energy prices and the decarbonisation agenda across the public, commercial and residential sectors as well as the accelerated shift to renewables generation.
Nonetheless, a number of challenges remain which may hamper stronger growth. These include the ongoing shortages of skilled installers, barriers in the planning system and grid constraints. Rising capital costs may slow down the number of new utility-scale projects.”
Claudia Preedy
Principal Analyst
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Overview
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Products covered in this Report
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Executive Summary
- The five-year outlook for UK solar power
- Figure 1: Solar power outlook, 2023-28
- The market
- UK solar PV installed capacity reaches over 15GW
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- Figure 2: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2014-22
- Over 1,127 solar farms (over 1MW) operational as of June 2023
- Solar-plus-storage systems and growing EV market to be key drivers of residential solar PV market
- Commercial rooftop solar PV market is taking off
- Outlook for solar PV market is bright
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- Figure 3: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2023-27
- Companies and brands
- Key industry players
- Major energy companies showing growing interest in UK solar PV sector
- The five-year outlook for UK solar power
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Issues and Insights
- Residential solar-plus-storage market starts to take off
- Move to higher performing, higher efficiency n-type modules
- Addressing the challenges of recycling solar panels
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Market Size
- Introduction
- UK installed solar PV capacity reaches over 15GW
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- Figure 4: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2017-23
- Figure 5: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, 2014-22
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Market Segmentation
- Overview
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- Figure 6: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2018-23
- Figure 7: Photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, by size, 2023
- Solar PV installations by accreditation scheme
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- Figure 8: Photovoltaic installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme, 2018-23
- Residential solar PV market
- Revival of the residential solar PV market
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- Figure 9: Residential photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2018-23
- Installations by property and tenure type
- Figure 10: MCS registered solar PV installations, by property type, 2009-23
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- Figure 11: MCS registered solar PV installations, by tenure type, 2009-23
- Solar-plus-storage systems and growing EV market to be key drivers of residential solar PV market
- New finance options required to boost domestic solar PV market
- Smart Export Guarantee (SEG) tariffs
- Commercial (building-mounted) solar PV market
- Commercial rooftop solar PV deployment seeing strong growth
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- Figure 12: : 4kw-5MW photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2018-23
- Corporate onsite PPAs market continues to strengthen
- Public Sector Decarbonisation Scheme boosts solar PV uptake in public sector buildings
- Ground-mounted solar PV market
- Subsidy-free, large-scale solar PV market takes off…
- …but market challenges remain
- Over 1,127 solar farms (over 1MW) operational as of June 2023
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- Figure 13: Ground-mounted and stand-alone photovoltaic installation capacity installed in the UK, 2015-22
- Emergence of PPAs presents growth opportunities for ground-mounted solar PV installations
- Strong public support for solar farms
- Community solar PV installations
- Policy barriers continue to prevent the community solar PV sector from taking off
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- Figure 14: UK Community solar PV generation capacity 2016-21
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Regional Trends
- Regional development
- London mayor is targeting 1.5GW of solar deployment in the capital by 2030
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- Figure 15: Mcs-certified solar PV installations, by region and installation type, 2023, (cumulative number of installations)
- Figure 16: Regional proportional importance of solar PV installations, 2023
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The European/World Context
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- Figure 17: World, Europe and UK cumulative photovoltaic installations, 2018-22
- Figure 18: World development of photovoltaic installations, 2016-22
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Market Forecast
- The five-year outlook for UK solar panels
- Figure 19: Solar panels outlook, 2023-28
- More supportive government policies, but more needs to be done to reach ambitious targets
- UK solar PV deployment set for sustained growth
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- Figure 20: Forecast photovoltaic installed capacity in the UK, 2023-27
- Figure 21: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2023-27
- Forecast methodology
- The five-year outlook for UK solar panels
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Market Trends
- Residential solar-plus-storage deployment takes off
- Large-scale battery storage market witnesses strong growth
- Improved efficiency and durability through shift towards bifacial modules
- Move to higher performing, higher efficiency n-type modules is the next major technology change
- Growing interest in roof integrated PV systems in new build sector
- Significant potential of solar carports market
- Addressing the challenges of recycling solar panels
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Government Policy and Legislative Environment
- Future Homes Standard
- Net Zero by 2050 target
- Existing policies on reaching Net Zero by 20250
- UK to accelerate home-grown power and aims for 70GW solar PV capacity by 2035
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- Figure 22: Low-carbon power generation capacity targets, 2022
- Support mechanisms and policies to decarbonise electricity
- Renewables Obligation
- Feed-in Tariffs
- Carbon Price Floor
- Contracts for Difference
- Capacity Market
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Market Drivers
- New build sector offers huge growth potential for solar PV
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- Figure 23: New housebuilding market, 2017-27
- Growth opportunities in social housing sector
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- Figure 24: Residential dwelling stock in England, by tenure, 2016-21
- Number of non-domestic properties
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- Figure 25: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, 2023 (000s and % of total)
- Figure 26: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by property type, 2023
- Solar PV costs
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- Figure 27: small scale solar PV average cost, by size of installation, 2014-22
- Large-scale solar PV, together with onshore wind, is the most affordable source of electricity
- High electricity prices reduce solar PV payback period
- Electricity generation fuel mix shifts to renewables
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- Figure 28: Analysis of electricity generation the UK, by type of fuel used, 2018-22
- Figure 29: Proportional importance of fuel source in UK electricity generation, 2018 and 2022
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- Figure 30: Renewable electricity generation in the UK, 2018-22
- Energy storage to play a key role in the transition to a clean electricity supply system
- The UK climate
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Industry Structure
- Industry turnover
- Figure 31: 32: UK solar PV sector turnover, 2017-21
- Industry grapples with skills shortage
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- Figure 33: Employment and number of companies active across UK solar PV supply chain, 2015-21
- Key industry players
- Major energy companies showing growing interest in UK solar PV sector
- Solar panels supply chain remains dominated by Chinese manufacturers
- Solar PV installation industry remains highly fragmented
- Solar companies are looking for international expansion
- Industry turnover
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Company Profiles
- Anesco
- Financial performance
- Figure 34: Financial analysis of Anesco, 2018-22
- British Solar Renewables
- BSR acquired by ICG Infra
- Financial performance and outlook
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- Figure 35: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables, 2017-21
- EvoEnergy
- Lightsource BP Renewable Energy Investments
- Powerverse – the company’s smart energy management system
- Business model and strategy
- Financial performance
- Figure 36: Financial analysis of Lightsource BP Renewable Energy Investments, 2018-21
- Solarcentury Holdings (now part of Statkraft)
- SolarCentury acquired by Statkraft
- Company review and outlook
- Figure 37: Financial analysis of Solarcentury Holdings, 2017-21
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Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
- Abbreviations
- Methodology
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Further Sources and Contacts
- Trade associations
- Trade magazines
- Trade events
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