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Report
en_GB
The supermarket channel is estimated to grow by 2.1% in 2025 in value terms. However, adjusted for inflation, volume sales fell and the channel continued to lose share of the…
UK
Food and Drink Retail
simple
UK Supermarkets Market Report 2025
"Value-for-money remains top of the consumer agenda, but moving forward large-format stores have to lead more on the healthy eating revolution"
The supermarket channel is estimated to grow by 2.1% in 2025 in value terms. However, adjusted for inflation, volume sales fell and the channel continued to lose share of the wider market.
Volume decline is not a trend unique to large-format stores, with 47% of shoppers actively cutting grocery spend, but a growing need for convenience better insulated rival channels, namely discounters and online, from volume decline.
In a high inflationary market, margins in the sector have been squeezed both due to external factors and the growing price-war, as leading players react to shoppers’ demands for value.
The biggest threat to large-format stores is complacency, failure to sharpen value perception and differentiate in a crowded market.
The biggest opportunity lies in bold repositioning: using tech and consumer demands for wellness and experiential formats to redefine the role of the physical store. The largest players are uniquely positioned to leverage data, technology and store space to move beyond simply price leadership, to experience-rich, health-centric destinations.
Key Issues Covered in the Report:
The size of the UK grocery and supermarket sector, and the continued evolution in channel use
How consumers are balancing need for value with rising interest in health, wellness and transparency
Key drivers of retailer choice, including the impact of price, store design and technology
The evolving role and expectations of loyalty schemes in driving patronage
Attitudes towards shopping for groceries, including impact of retail media and use of AI
The main focus of this Report is the supermarkets of the market leaders – those stores in which people have historically done their main shop.
The term ‘supermarket’ takes in a very broad selection of store sizes. Tesco, for example, has stores ranging from 10,000 sq ft, small high-street supermarkets to over 100,000 sq ft hypermarkets, with an average supermarket size of around 39,000 sq ft. Broadly speaking, the unifier between these stores is the ability to serve, first and foremost, a shopper’s main shop, or primary grocery needs. As size increases, the range of non-foods and other services accommodated also increases, with the trade-off being that the largest stores are usually located outside of urban areas and often need a dedicated trip to visit.
While touched upon in this report, discounters are excluded from our definition of supermarkets as, while often similar in size to the supermarkets of the leading players, in reality they fall between the supermarket and convenience sectors.
Market size and forecast of all grocery retail sales
Market forecast and prediction intervals
Market size of supermarkets
Market forecast and prediction intervals
The consumer
Consumer research questions
Consumer research methodology – UK
UK generation groups
Retailer activity – supplementary data
Leading retailers: historic market shares
Leading retailers: revenue
Leading retailers: outlets
Leading retailers: sales per outlet
Leading retailers – sales area
Leading retailers: sales density
Leading retailers: operating profits
Leading retailers: operating margins
Advertising spend
Share of spending by advertising channel
Other data source methodologies
Mintel Spark
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Abbreviations and terms
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