"Portion-controlled and better-for-you cakes offer opportunities to drive snacking and breakfast use. Elevated treat experiences hold untapped potential."
Amy Bishop, Analyst UK Food & Drink Reports
Breakfast holds ripe potential for cakes and sweet bakes, with three in five people (58%) finding high in fibre variants appealing for this occasion. While previous such forays have failed, other categories are bringing together health and indulgence at breakfasts, paving the way for cakes and sweet bakes to do the same.
Value growth slowed in the category in 2025, as rising inflation and the hot summer weather hit underlying sales. The category faces a challenging outlook in 2026. Rising energy and labour costs dial up the pressure for further price rises in 2026, at a time when grocery budgets will come under closer scrutiny amid accelerating inflation.
Elevating their treat image is crucial for brands to justify their place in shoppers’ basket, as non-essentials. Half of users wishing cakes and sweet bakes at home felt more like a treat speaks to the white space in this emotional need space. Interactive elements are timely to explore, 39% of buyers willing to pay more for these, including 54% of those wanting cakes to feel more like a treat.
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