2024
9
UK Winter Retail Trends Report 2024
2025-01-08T16:01:42+00:00
REP8960D4FA_0DFC_48BB_B0F4_A5FBBE3CB3F7
2600
178590
[{"name":"Retail","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/retail"}]
Report
en_GB
Consumer confidence continues to be highly polarised, and the budget has done little to boost short-term confidence. The majority of high-income households now say they are better off than a…
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  6. UK Winter Retail Trends Report 2024

UK Winter Retail Trends Report 2024

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Consumer confidence continues to be highly polarised, and the budget has done little to boost short-term confidence. The majority of high-income households now say they are better off than a year ago, while at the other end of the market more consumers continue to report their situation worsening rather than improving.

However, some improvement in the mass-market is feeding through to the retail sector. October brought the fourth month of consecutive volume growth. While this is against weak comparatives in 2023, and average weekly sales in the sector are still down on pre-pandemic levels, overall retail demand is moving slowly in the right direction.

The market remains tough. There looks to have been little boost to Black Friday demand with early indications trading was inline with 2023. While we expect festive demand to outpace 2023, spending will remain subdued compared to pre-cost of living comparatives. However, a positive upward trend in home demand indicates more opportunity, particularly at the premium end, for discretionary spend in 2025.

The slowly improving trend in underlying retail demand is fragile, as confidence remains mixed and much of the current opportunities in the market are confined at the premium-end.

Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight

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  1. KEY FINDINGS

    • Economic growth slows as labour delivers first budget
    • Graph 1: change in UK GDP (real terms), by quarter, 2023-24
    • Polarisation in financial position becomes more entrenched
    • Graph 2: “how does your own financial situation compare to how it was a year or so ago?”, by household income, August 2024
    • Four months of consistent volume growth show a slowly improving picture of demand
    • Graph 3: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Online demand ticks up
    • Graph 4: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2023-24
    • Volumes continue to be squeezed in the grocery sector
    • Graph 5: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Fashion demand remains under pressure
    • Graph 6: outwear items purchased in the last three months, 2023 and 2024
    • Graph 7: fashion items purchased in the last three months, 2023 and 2024
    • Underlying demand in home continues to improve
    • Graph 8: all store-based household goods retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Beauty still a star performer with ‘imperfect beauty’ a trend to watch
  2. MARKET ENVIRONMENT AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT

    • Market environment
    • Economic growth slows…
    • Graph 9: change in UK GDP (real terms), by quarter, 2023-24
    • …as labour deliver first budget
    • Wage growth slows but real incomes remain in growth
    • Graph 10: real wages growth, annual % change in wage growth vs inflation, 2020-24
    • A more fractious world is only likely to add further inflationary pressure
    • Consumer sentiment
    • Day-to-day wellbeing ticks up…
    • Graph 11: the financial wellbeing index, 2019-24
    • …but polarisation in financial position becomes more entrenched
    • Graph 12: “how does your own financial situation compare to how it was a year or so ago?”, by household income, August 2024
    • Budget brings no magic short-term fixes…
    • …which wobbles confidence for the year-ahead
    • Graph 13: the financial confidence index, 2019-24
  3. UK RETAIL SALES

    • Retail sales performance
    • Four months of consistent volume growth show a slowly improving picture of demand
    • Graph 14: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Cautious optimism for a better festive period
    • Overall demand during Black Friday looks flat year-on-year
    • Graph 15: leading Black Friday retailers, year-on-year change in key spending metrics based on Snoop SpendMapper cohort, 2024
    • Non-food demand slowly recovering
    • Graph 16: all retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, by core category, 2024
    • The interplay between stores and online
    • Online demand ticks up
    • Graph 17: all online sales, value non-seasonally adjusted, year-on-year performance, 2023-24
    • Store-based players continue to claim the majority share of the online market
    • Graph 18: share of online sales, by type of retail operation, 2021-24
    • Online share edges ahead of peak trading…
    • Graph 19: online sales as a percentage of all retail sales, 2022-24
    • …meaning pressure on in-store sales mounts ahead of the festive period
    • Graph 20: estimated share of total non-food sales, store versus online and other non-store, 2023-24
    • Wider adoption of return fees is bridging the gap to physical
  4. GROCERY SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR

    • Volumes continue to be squeezed in the grocery sector
    • Graph 21: all grocery retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Grocers go big on Halloween, with raising the profile of other seasonal events a key opportunity in 2025
    • Store standards must be raised, as consumers increasingly demand more than just value
  5. NON-FOOD SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR

    • Volume recovery continues in non-foods
    • Graph 22: all non-food store-based retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Fashion
    • Some summer improvement in fashion demand but market remains difficult
    • Graph 23: all store-based fashion retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Purchasing across categories falls year-on-year
    • Graph 24: fashion items purchased in the last three months, 2023-24
    • Graph 25: outerwear items purchased in the last three months, 2023 and 2024
    • Booming resale market dampening new sales
    • Home
    • Past three months see improvement in underlying home demand
    • Graph 26: all store-based household goods retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Property market continues to see recovery driving recovery in demand…
    • …adding to some cautious optimism for 2025
    • Health and beauty
    • Health and beauty demand strengthens ahead of festive period
    • Graph 27: all store-based health and beauty retail sales (excluding fuel), non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year performance by value and volume, 2023-24
    • Imperfect beauty an emerging trend to watch
  6. LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION

    • Temu shortens delivery times as it taps new local suppliers
    • Nick Carroll, Director of Retail Insight
    • Deliveroo partners with Hurr for on-demand fashion rental delivery
    • Tamara Sender Ceron, Associate Director – Fashion Retail
    • Lucy & Yak launches limited edition charity products to challenge Black Friday
    • Emily Viberg, Retail Analyst
    • IKEA to open Oxford Circus pop-up
    • Bridget McCusker, Retail Analyst
    • AliExpress launches Single Day shopping event in the UK
    • Emily Viberg, Retail Analyst
    • Amazon extends same-day delivery service to 80 UK towns and cities
    • Bridget McCusker, Retail Analyst
    • THG-owned LOOKFANTASTIC opens first permanent store
    • Emily Viberg, Retail Analyst
  7. SPECIAL FOCUS: 2024 IN REVIEW

    • A look back at the key trends of 2024
    • A difficult year sees some big names taken from the landscape
    • New and emerging names found growth by tapping into trends
    • Graph 28: selected smaller and emerging retailers, by year-on-year growth in customer numbers within cohort, 2024
    • Extreme value players continue to find joy in the market
    • Hold my attention, and your value
    • Social commerce fully arrives in the market
    • Tiered loyalty goes mainstream
    • Rapid delivery expands to non-food
    • In-store services expand as retailers look to support health needs
    • With 2030 on the horizon, sustainability will be back on the agenda
  8. FURTHER RESOURCES

    • Snoop SpendMapper methodology

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