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The US baby food and drink market is entering a more complex era of growth. While the category benefits from the non-discretionary nature of infant and toddler nutrition, structural demographic…
US
Baby Food and Formula
simple
US Baby Food and Drink Market Report 2026
"The future belongs to brands that provide flexible solutions that span across stages, occasions and needs, capturing a greater share of the feeding journey."
Kelsey Girard, Senior Food & Drink Analyst
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What you need to know
Outlook for baby food and drink
Opportunities
Build feeding systems, not just feeding products
Graph 1: trended baby/toddler consumption of food/drink, 2024-26
Reframe packaged baby foods and drinks as flexible building blocks
Shift trust from a message to a service
THE MARKET
Snapshot – baby food and drink market size and forecast
Market factors
Economic pressure continues to squeeze even in non-discretionary category
Structural pressures persist as birth rate declines
Graph 2: general fertility rate, 2000-24
Driving growth amid a demographic decline in births: three opportunities for brands
Government shifts impact baby food and drink assistance programs
Graph 3: USDA food and nutrition assistance spending, by program, fiscal year 2024
Formula recalls highlight transparency as a non-negotiable
Market size
Market momentum is increasingly being earned, not inherited
Market size and forecast of baby food and drink
Graph 4: total retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2021-31
Total retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, 2021-31
Market segmentation
Baby food and drink’s growth is stable but increasingly narrow
Graph 5: total retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2021-31
Market segmentation
Market/brand share
Center of gravity is shifting with baby food and drink market leaders
Graph 6: MULO+ sales of baby food and drink, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2025 and 2026
Sales of baby food and drink, by brand/company
Leading formula brands hierarchy shifts, Kendamil surges
Graph 7: MULO+ sales of baby formula, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2026, market share
Sales of baby formula, by company/brand
Fragmentation accelerates in baby food, snacks and juice
Graph 8: MULO+ sales change and share change of baby food, snacks, and juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2025 and 2026
Sales of baby food, snacks and juice, by company/brand
Baby electrolytes are caught in a dual squeeze
Graph 9: MULO+ sales of baby electrolytes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2025 and 2026
Sales of baby electrolytes by company/brand
THE CONSUMER
Capture hybrid feeding and stage-spanning solutions
Feeding routines hit a hybrid stride
Graph 10: trended baby/toddler consumption of food/drink, 2024-26
Meet parents where they’re at, which increasingly is in the middle
Little Spoon and Kendamil portfolios span across the stages
Category growth is solution-oriented and versatile across budgets
Graph 11: baby/toddler consumption of food/drink, by financial situation, 2026
Precision, proof, and personalization can redefine trust
Future of feeding is complementary, not competitive
Graph 12: frequency of baby/toddler food/drink consumption, 2026
Parents seek out nutritionally tailored solutions from the start
Graph 13: important factors when purchasing baby/toddler food products, 2026
Functional customizations can build confidence
Transparency and trust strategies must be multidimensional
Graph 14: interest in trust and transparency initiatives from baby/toddler brands, 2026
Trust is most powerful when it solves a parent’s specific worry
Transparency is moving from label-reading to proof-seeking
Balance economic reassurance with emotional reassurance
Graph 15: baby/toddler food and drink parental shopping habits, by financial situation, 2026
Graph 16: important factors when purchasing baby/toddler food products, by financial situation, 2026
Parental gender demands a balance of cost, convenience and credibility for the household
Packaged food can act as a partner to homemade
Graph 17: baby/toddler food/drink consumption, by parental gender, 2026
Cost pressure is universal, but convenience shapes how male and female parents adapt
Graph 18: baby/toddler food and drink parental shopping habits, by gender, 2026
Trust looks different across genders: proof and guidance can drive caregiver confidence
Graph 19: interest in trust and transparency initiatives from baby/toddler brands, by gender, 2026
PRODUCT, INNOVATION AND MARKETING
Packaged products can be repositioned as flexible building blocks rather than fixed-use solutions
Community events deliver experiential marketing and trust-building moments
Graph 20: interest in trust and transparency initiatives from baby/toddler brands, by area, 2026
Lean into in-the-moment reassurance in trust-sensitive categories
A sense of adventure with multiple benefits
Texture knows no (age) limits
APPENDIX
Report scope/market definition
The market
Market size sources and methodology
Forecast methodology
Forecast methodology – fan chart
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, at current prices, 2021-31
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2021-31
US: total retail sales of baby food and drink, by segment, at current prices, 2024 and 2026
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby formula, at current prices, 2021-31
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby formula, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby food, snacks and juice, at current prices, 2021-31
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby food, snacks and juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby electrolytes, at current prices, 2021-31
US: total retail sales and forecast of baby electrolytes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
The consumer
Consumer research questions
Consumer research methodology – US
US generation groups
Abbreviations and terms
The US baby food and drink market is entering a more complex era of growth. While the category benefits from the non-discretionary nature of infant and toddler nutrition, structural demographic pressure is intensifying as the pipeline of new category users declines.
At the same time, the baby food and drink market is becoming more competitive beneath the surface. The market is estimated to grow 1.9% in 2026, but market share is shifting away from some legacy leaders toward challengers, smaller brands and differentiated propositions. Kendamil posted nearly 50% growth, while Once Upon a Farm grew 59.9%, signaling that parents remain willing to switch when brands feel more relevant, modern or purpose-built.
Consumer behavior is also changing. Parents are increasingly blending breastmilk, formula, homemade foods, pouches, snacks and beverages into flexible feeding routines, creating demand for products that clarify their role in the day rather than relying on broad convenience claims.
The biggest opportunity is to move beyond stage-based selling and build ecosystems around reassurance, developmental support, nutrition personalization and budget-sensitive flexibility. Brands that make feeding feel easier, safer and more purposeful will be best positioned to grow value in a smaller, more selective parent market.
This Report Looks at the Following Areas:
How declining US birth rates are reshaping growth strategies and increasing the importance of value per child
Why hybrid feeding routines are creating demand for product portfolios that span stages, occasions and developmental needs
How challenger brands are gaining share by aligning with modern parental expectations around nutrition, convenience and trust
Why trust is becoming more personalized, requiring brands to deliver proof through transparency, safety, guidance and support
How economic pressure is impacting feeding behaviors
Where brands can unlock growth by positioning products as flexible tools that complement, rather than replace, homemade feeding
How innovation in sensory development, texture exploration, functional nutrition and global flavors can support long-term category relevance
The future belongs to brands that provide flexible solutions that span across stages, occasions and needs, capturing a greater share of the feeding journey.
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