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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- What consumers want & why
- Opportunities
- Cutting through the noise that can surround the indulgence decision
- Graph 1: reported changes to baking habits, 2025
- Dynamic definitions of enjoyment emerge alongside different approaches to baking
- Graph 2: trended baking consumer segmentation, 2023-25
- Graph 3: baking attitudes and behaviors, 2025
- Fresh is best, even in baked goods
- Graph 4: preparation or purchase methods, by specific baked good, 2025
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MARKET DYNAMICS
- Market context
- Market drivers
- Broad economic uncertainty drops consumer confidence
- Graph 5: consumer sentiment index, 2022-25
- Both annual and core inflation increased by more than expected in January
- Graph 6: headline CPI and core CPI, 2021-25
- Rule Rebellion: health vs indulgence in baked goods
- What is the role of comfort and indulgence in 2025?
- And what is the role of health?
- Embrace the nuances of Rule Rebellion
- Graph 7: attitudes toward food and drink – agreement with the statement, “I enjoy ‘breaking the rules’ when it comes to what I eat/drink,” 2024*
- Chain Reaction: baked good input prices
- Egg prices flock towards $5/dozen
- Graph 8: eggs (grade A, large, per dozen), average price (not seasonally adjusted), 2020-25
- Swapping in during supply chain struggles
- Cocoa prices continue to climb
- Graph 9: global price of cocoa, by month, 2015-25
- Market size and forecast
- Volatility remains an ingredient in the market, yet an overall steadying is on the horizon
- Retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients and mixes
- Market segmentation
- Baking ingredients prove versatile and inelastic, yet cooling inflation on the horizon will cool growth across segments
- Graph 10: total retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients and mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2019-29
- Retail sales of baking ingredients and mixes, by segment
- Market share/brand share
- Baking and mixes market a melting pot of market leaders, store brands and smaller brands
- Graph 11: multi-outlet sales of baking and dessert mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2024 and 2025
- Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by company
- Modest baking mix segment growth as differentiation proves sweet for sales gains
- Sales of baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2024 and 2025
- Elevated cocoa prices amplify segment leader baking ingredient sales
- Sales of baking ingredients, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2024 and 2025
- Premium flour is blooming
- Sales of flour, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2024 and 2025
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CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer fast facts
- Baking consumer segmentation
- Baking consumer segments defined
- Since 2023, Confident bakers and Shortcut bakers rise, while Reluctant bakers and Non-bakers fall
- Graph 12: trended baking consumer segmentation, 2023-25
- Graph 13: baking consumer segmentation, 2025
- Demographic breakdowns of baking consumer segments
- Baked goods purchased and prepared
- What lends to cookie’s sweets success?
- Graph 14: types of baked goods prepared or purchased, 2025
- Work in both convenient and comforting baking experiences for women
- Graph 15: baked goods purchased or prepared, by gender, 2025
- Extending across baking segments with personalized experiences
- Graph 16: types of baked goods prepared or purchased, by baking segmentation, 2025
- Baked goods channels
- Fresh reigns supreme, from scratch and mixes can deliver
- Graph 17: preparation or purchase methods, by specific baked good, 2025
- Regardless of from scratch or from mix, give permission to enjoy
- Graph 18: from scratch baking by types of baked good, by gender
- Graph 19: from a boxed mix baking by specific baked good, by gender, 2025
- Younger baked goods consumers mix it up
- Graph 20: from a boxed mix baking by specific baked good, by age, 2025
- Graph 21: from scratch baking by specific baked good, by age, 2025
- Purchase behaviors by category
- Package up creativity in baking mixes to support impulse purchasing
- Graph 22: baking mix purchase behaviors, 2025
- Infuse flexibility into inherent ingredient versatility
- Graph 23: dry baking ingredient purchase behaviors, 2025
- Shifts in baking lay groundwork for toppings to carry more weight in baking customization
- Graph 24: baking supply and baking topping purchase behaviors, 2025
- Reported change in behaviors
- Balancing enjoyment with permissibility – a tale of health and value
- Graph 25: reported changes to baking habits, 2025
- Baking the way through different life stages
- Graph 26: reported changes to baking habits, by generation, 2025
- Indulgence and intentionality aren’t separate
- Graph 27: reported changes to baking habits, by baking segmentation, 2025
- Ingredient innovation interest
- Baking mixes can connect functionality to baking habit shifts
- Graph 28: interest in baking/dessert mix ingredient concepts, 2025
- Creating value can mean doing more with less
- Graph 29: interest in baking/dessert mix ingredient concepts, by financial situations, 2025
- Baking habits may differ, but taste preferences suggest aligned end goals
- Graph 30: interest in baking/dessert mix ingredient concepts, by baking segmentation, 2025
- Concept innovation interest
- Snackability can come in different forms
- Graph 31: interest in baking/dessert mix concepts, 2025
- The influence of information opens up doors yet creates more particular preferences for Gen Z
- Graph 32: interest in baking/dessert mix concepts, by generation, 2025
- Format innovation not bound by parental status
- Graph 33: interest in baking/dessert mix concepts, by parental status by gender, 2025
- Attitudes and behaviors toward baking and dessert mixes
- Map out the journey, not just baked good destination
- Graph 34: baking attitudes and behaviors, 2025
- Modernize enjoyment for faster paced lifestyles and generations
- Graph 35: attitudes toward baking mixes and baked goods, 2025
- Find common ground between from scratch and from mix bakers with personalization inspiration
- Graph 36: baking attitudes and behaviors, by baking segmentation, 2025
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INNOVATION AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
- Launch activity and innovation
- Customized, convenient experiences enhance enjoyment of baking
- Flexibility to fit different needs, fun occasions, and stretched supply chains
- Betty Crocker provides the tools for sweets success
- Accessorizing the premium baking experience, accessibly
- Sweet and savory twists
- Seasonal pushes limits
- Personalization is best for better-for-you
- What consumers are saying about BFY baking chips
- Marketing and advertising
- Betty Crocker’s 24 days of cookies
- Pillsbury inspires consumers to bake their way through seasons throughout the entire year
- Arrowhead Mills measures convenience and value
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APPENDIX
- Market definition
- Consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology
- Generations
- Abbreviations and terms
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
- US: total retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients and mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-29
- US: total retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes, at current prices, 2019-29
- US: total retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-29
- US: total retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients, at current prices, 2019-29
- US: total retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2019-29
Making baked goods at home, whether from scratch or using a mix, remains an accessible route to fresh baked goods, particularly as consumers’ budgets tighten.
Baking Mixes Market Analysis — Current Landscape
Consumers are increasingly engaging with baking, however, in different ways. While confident home bakers who prefer from scratch baking, those who enjoy shortcut baking are growing in numbers. Therefore, the home baking and mixes market is facing a bigger variety of needs that must be met.
As consumer confidence is declining and uncertainty is on the rise, the intersection of indulgence and comfort moves into the spotlight. What exactly comfort and enjoyment means to consumers who bake, however, is nuanced with regards to the baking process.
Brands in the home baking market have to provide options and different avenues to make baking enjoyable, by both innovating and offering solutions that enhance experiences. For example, by including seasonal specials in everyday snacking occasions. Moreover, customization and personalization in the home baking market will become more important.
Baking Mixes Market Statistics
- Consumer Behavior: 43% of home bakers agree that baking brings them a sense of comfort.
- Popular Goods Baked/Purchased in the Baking Mixes Market: Cookies are the most popular sweet treat US Americans prepare or buy.
US Baking and Mixes Market Report — What’s Inside?
Key Topics Analysed in this Report
- Trended baking consumer segmentation: Who bakes, how they bake, and how this has changed since 2023.
- Type of baked goods purchased and prepared.
- Purchase behaviors by category and consumer behaviour related to baked goods.
- Consumer interest in innovation, such as ingredients and format concepts.
- Consumer attitudes and behaviors toward baking and dessert mixes.
- Home baking market analysis, with a focus on supply chains and the nuances of ‘health vs indulgence’.
Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis
This report is written by Kelsey Olsen, Food & Drink Analyst. Kelsey joined Mintel in 2022 as a US Food and Drink Analyst. She uses her expertise to identify changing consumer behaviors, industry trends, and innovation across packaged food and drink categories. Kelsey has a B.A. in Nutrition with a focus on food studies and business from the College of St. Benedict in Minnesota.
Download Report SummaryAt-home baking continues to gain momentum, yet it’s not a one size fits all baking experience that consumers find enjoyment in.
Kelsey Olsen
Analyst – Food & Drink
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