2023
9
US Baking and Mixes Market Report 2023
2023-04-20T04:08:24+01:00
OX1157829
3695
162583
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Report
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“Despite inflation keeping many consumers turning to their own kitchens for meal solutions, the regularity of home baking is on the decline. Tired consumers are seeking convenience options, including the…

US Baking and Mixes Market Report 2023

£ 3,695 (Excl.Tax)

Description

This report covers the US baking ingredients and baking mixes market in complete detail. Home baking is evolving, and consumer demands are changing. This report ensures that you are kept in the loop of the latest market developments, consumer trends, and opportunities in the home baking market, with independent statistics and figures to back up our expert analysis.

Below, we summarise the key issues analysed, and offer handpicked insights from the full report.

Key Issues Analysed in This Report

  • Who bakes and how they do it.
  • Baked goods purchased.
  • Baked goods occasions.
  • Interest in baking mix innovation.
  • Baking inspiration.
  • Attitudes toward baking and mixes.
  • Attitudes toward health and indulgence.

Home Baking Market Overview

The US baking ingredients and baking mixes market is expected to see continued growth in 2023, driven by price inflation. Despite this growth, the market is projected to experience a loss in participation due to rising prices of food at home compared to food away from home and consumer fatigue with cooking. Consumers are likely willing to invest a small amount more for the convenience of professionally prepared products.

Home Baking Consumer Trends

Baking regularity declines; consumer segments have different usage

US adults are baking regularly, with more baking from scratch than using mixes, though there is a decrease from 2021. Our consumer segmentation in this report finds that “Confident Home Bakers” are more likely to be older, female, and financially healthy, while “Shortcut Bakers” are younger, convenience-focused, and prefer baking mixes with all the needed ingredients and decorations.

Bite-sized indulgence preferred as cookies win for consumers

Cookie purchase and preparation far outpaces any other baked goods measured in our survey of US adults, suggesting that consumers are limiting baked goods consumption to true indulgences. The preference towards cookies over cakes, pies, or brownies points to a desire for portion control.

Baking ingredients and baking mixes industry stats

  • 47% of US adults bake regularly, with 28% doing so from scratch and 19% relying on mixes.
  • 65% of consumers have prepared or purchased cookies in the past three months, notably outperforming all other baked goods.

Opportunities for Brands

As over half of bakers want baking to be as quick as possible, brands have the opportunity to communicate time savings when it comes to baking. Baking mix brands should emphasise time savings, whereas baking ingredients brands should promote quick, easy recipes and set-it-and-forget-it techniques. Recipes can be categorised by time required, to give consumers a clear picture of the range of quick-bake options.

Find a complete analysis of opportunities for brands in the home baking market in the full report. Looking for something else? Try the In-Store Bakery Market Report, or explore our extensive food market research to broaden your view.

Companies and Products Covered in this Report

Leading companies and brands in the home baking market are covered in this report, with segments analysed including market sizes of each segment. Companies discussed are including but not limited to Nestlé, Heinz, McCormick & Company, Hershey, Lindt & Sprüngli AG, General Mills, King Arthur Baking Company, Continental Mills Inc, and Brynwood Partners.. Brands analysed include Maseca, Nestlé Toll House, Gold Medal, Betty Crocker, Krusteaz, Pillsbury, Duncan Hines, Arm & Hammer, Sprouts Farmers Market, Ghirardelli, and many more.

This report defines baking mixes as cake and pastry mixes, bread and cookie mixes, pancake/waffle/french toast mixes, pie crust and fillings, and other baking mixes. Baking ingredients are defined as baking supplies (from yeast to syrup), and frosting (including ready-to-use).

Additional Features Included in Your Purchase

Different Digital Formats: PDF for conveniently sharing with your team, PowerPoint for quickly including in your presentation, as well as Word and Excel.

Mintel’s Clients Portal: Our offers instant access to actionable analysis and trends pieces relevant to your industry that are published almost daily. You can also browse for more market research reports.

Expert Analysis from a Food Specialist

This report, written by Jenni Nelson, a leading food analyst, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends in the home baking market and add expert context to the numbers.

Despite inflation keeping many consumers turning to their own kitchens for meal solutions, the regularity of home baking is on the decline. Tired consumers are seeking convenience options, including the use of mixes and prepared offerings. Value messaging will continue to resonate but must stretch beyond low price to include the value of ease.

Michele Scott, Associate Director

 

Michele Scott
Associate Director

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • This Report looks at the following areas
    • Definition
    • Market context
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Consumer trends
    • Baking regularity declines
      • Figure 1: Baking consumer segmentation, 2021-23
    • Mixes outperform scratch baking for affordability
      • Figure 2: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, affordability, by financial situation, 2023
    • Popular formats suggest preference for bite-sized indulgence
      • Figure 3: Baked goods purchased and prepared, 2023
    • Popular occasions imply category is limited to special occasions
      • Figure 4: Baked goods occasions, 2023
    • Competitive strategies
    • Affordability and trustworthiness drive purchase intent
      • Figure 5: Baking mixes & ingredients launches ranked by purchase intent, 2023*
    • Confectionery co-branding shortcuts perception of satisfaction
      • Figure 6: Baking mixes & ingredients launches ranked by the attribute “tasty,” 2023*
    • No prep translates to convenience
      • Figure 7: Baking mixes & ingredients launches ranked by the attribute “convenient,” 2023*
    • Market predictions
      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking ingredients and mixes, at current prices, 2017-27
      • Figure 9: Baking and mixes outlook, 2023-28
    • Opportunities
    • Majority of home bakers want it to be as quick as possible
      • Figure 10: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree – Ease, 2023
    • All-in-one offerings will have the widest reach
      • Figure 11: Interest in baking mix innovation, 2023
    • Under 35s turn to influencers over family/friends for baking inspiration
      • Figure 12: Baking inspiration, by gender and age, 2023
  3. Market Size and Forecast

    • Inflationary prices projected to boost sales back to pandemic highs in 2023
      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking ingredients and mixes, at current prices, 2017-27
      • Figure 14: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking ingredients and mixes, at current prices, 2017-27
      • Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients and mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
  4. Segment Performance

    • Mixes sales gain on ingredients
      • Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients and mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2017-27
      • Figure 17: Year-over-year change in total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients and mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2018-27
    • Supermarket dominance diminishes
      • Figure 18: Total US retail sales of baking ingredients and mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2017-22
      • Figure 19: Year-over-year change in total US retail sales of baking ingredients and mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2018-22
  5. Market Drivers

    • Inflation will continue to favor spend on food at home, pursuit of value
      • Figure 20: Changes in Consumer Price Indexes, legacy data, 2020 through 2023
      • Figure 21: Methods for saving money on food and drink, 2023
      • Figure 22: General Mills, new seasonal treats, 2022
    • Love of cooking hits a low, amping up pursuit of convenience
      • Figure 23: Cooking attitudes, 2019-22
    • Pursuit of health persists; sugar remains a focus area
      • Figure 24: Changes in eating habits, 2022
      • Figure 25: Changes in eating habits, 2022
  6. Key Players

    • Sales of baking ingredients and mixes by company
    • Private label controls a quarter of MULO sales
      • Figure 26: Share of multi-outlet sales of baking and mixes, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending January 29, 2023
      • Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of baking and mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
    • Company/brand sales by segment
    • Private label represents 33% of MULO sales of baking ingredients
      • Figure 28: Nestle No Bake Peanut Butter Chocolate Oat Bars, 2023
      • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients (except flour), by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
    • Dollar sales of private label flour grow 34% at MULO
      • Figure 30: King Arthur x Emile Henry, 2022
      • Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of flour, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
    • Pearl Milling rebrand pays off
      • Figure 32: Betty Crocker muffin time, 2022
      • Figure 33: Multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023
  7. Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities

    • Affordability and trustworthiness drive purchase intent, natural sneaks in
      • Figure 34: Baking mixes & ingredients launches ranked by purchase intent, 2023*
      • Figure 35: Baking mixes & ingredients launches ranked by the attribute “good value,” 2023*
    • No prep required equals convenience
      • Figure 36: Baking mixes & ingredients launches ranked by the attribute “convenient,” 2023*
    • Confectionery co-branding wins for perception of tasty
      • Figure 37: Baking mixes & ingredients launches ranked by the attribute “tasty,” 2023*
    • Nuts for health
      • Figure 38: Baking mixes & ingredients launches ranked by the attribute “healthy,” 2023*
    • Claims activity strong in category
      • Figure 39: Lactation Cookie Mix, 2023
      • Figure 40: Baking mixes & ingredients launches, by leading claims, 2020-23*
      • Figure 41: Baking mixes & ingredients launches, by fastest growing claims, 2020-23*
  8. The Baking and Mixes Consumer – Fast Facts

    • Baking regularity slows, balancing the scale from pandemic increases
    • Mixes outperform scratch baking for affordability
    • Instance of baking spans age groups, but most prolific among parents
    • Cookies have the widest reach
    • Popular baking occasions imply specialty (limited) perception
    • Home bakers call for speed and convenience
  9. Baking Consumer Segmentation

    • Fewer than half of US adults bake regularly
      • Figure 42: Baking consumer segmentation, 2023
      • Figure 43: Baking consumer segmentation, 2021-23
  10. Baked Goods Purchased and Prepared

    • Cookies take the cake
      • Figure 44: Baked goods purchased and prepared, 2023
    • Pies, cookies, and biscuits are most likely to be made from scratch
    • Brownie, pancake, and cake makers rely on mixes
    • Packaged CPG favors bread, cookies, biscuits, and waffles
    • In-store bakery appeals for bread, pie, and scones
    • Foodservice bakery patrons look for scones, bread, cake, muffins, and pie
      • Figure 45: Baked goods purchased and prepared, by method, 2023
  11. Baking Occasions

    • Baked goods are most popular for family gatherings, holidays, and dessert
      • Figure 46: Krusteaz Waffle Bite Board, 2023
      • Figure 47: Baking occasions, 2023
    • Expand imaginations for women baking
      • Figure 48: Baking occasions – Meal occasion, by gender and age, 2023
    • Baked goods seen as an affordable pick-me-up, breakfast/snack option
      • Figure 49: Baking occasions – Who with, by financial situation, 2023
      • Figure 50: Baking occasions – Meal occasion, by financial situation, 2023
  12. Interest in Baking Mix Innovation

    • All-in-one offerings will have the widest reach
      • Figure 51: Interest in baking mix innovation, 2023
    • More than a third of engaged bakers would be swayed by high protein
      • Figure 52: Interest in baking mix innovation, by gender and parental status, by baking consumer segmentation, 2023
    • Moms want all-in-ones, dads show interest in health attributes
      • Figure 53: Interest in baking mix innovation, by gender and parental status, 2023
    • Health innovation is lower priority among financially strapped
      • Figure 54: Interest in baking mix innovation, by gender and parental status, by financial situation, 2023
  13. Baking Inspiration

    • Cooking/baking websites lead for baking inspiration
      • Figure 55: Baking inspiration, 2023
    • Confident bakers use a range of inspirations; shortcut bakers want guidance
      • Figure 56: Baking inspiration, by segmentation, 2023
    • Online influencers go far in reaching young adult bakers
      • Figure 57: Baking inspiration, by gender and age, 2023
    • Shortcuts things for parents
      • Figure 58: Baking inspiration, by gender and parental status, 2023
    • Cooking shows and their advertisers should focus on affordability
      • Figure 59: Baking inspiration, by financial situation, 2023
  14. Attitudes toward Baking and Mixes

    • Benefits
    • Enjoyment and accomplishment rate high among home bakers
      • Figure 60: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, benefits, 2023
    • Willingness to bake correlates with the perceived benefit
      • Figure 61: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, benefits, by baking consumer segmentation, 2023
    • Affordability
    • Mixes seen as more affordable than scratch baking
      • Figure 62: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, affordability, 2023
    • Inflation has the biggest impact on young home bakers
      • Figure 63: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, affordability, by gender and age, 2023
    • Parents view baking as affordable but feel the pinch of inflation
      • Figure 64: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, affordability, by gender and parental status, 2023
    • Baking enthusiasts find scratch baking most affordable
      • Figure 65: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, affordability, by baking consumer segmentation, 2023
    • Financially struggling bakers see mixes as more affordable than scratch
      • Figure 66: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – any agree, affordability, by financial situation, 2023
    • Store brands
    • Home bakers embrace store brands; ingredients outpace mixes on quality
      • Figure 67: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, store brands, 2023
    • Young adult bakers most likely to embrace store brands
      • Figure 68: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, store brands, by gender and age, 2023
    • Ease
    • Time savings messaging will resonate
      • Figure 69: Attitudes toward baking and mixes – Any agree, ease, 2023
  15. Attitudes toward Health and Indulgence

    • Three quarters of US adults pay attention to indulgent food nutritionals
      • Figure 70: Attitudes toward health and indulgence, 2023
    • Health-focused options will resonate with most engaged bakers
      • Figure 71: Attitudes toward health and indulgence, by baking consumer segmentation, 2023
    • Young adult women are the most pro-indulgence
      • Figure 72: Attitudes toward health and indulgence, by gender and age, 2023
    • Give parents the (health-focused) option
      • Figure 73: Attitudes toward health and indulgence, by parental status, 2023
    • Indulgence soothes financial woes
      • Figure 74: Attitudes toward health and indulgence, by financial situation, 2023
  16. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Sales data
    • Forecast
    • Consumer survey data
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
    • Terms
  17. Appendix – The Market

      • Figure 75: Average annual household spending on baking ingredients and mixes, 2017-22
      • Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients, at current prices, 2017-27
      • Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking ingredients, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
      • Figure 78: Annual percent changes in multi-outlet sales of baking ingredients, by value and volume, 2018-22
      • Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes, at current prices, 2017-27
      • Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking/dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2017-27
      • Figure 81: Annual percent changes in multi-outlet sales of baking mixes, by value and volume, 2018-22
      • Figure 82: US supermarket sales of baking ingredients and mixes, at current prices, 2017-22
      • Figure 83: US sales of baking ingredients and mixes through other retail channels, at current prices, 2017-22
  18. Appendix – Key Players

      • Figure 84: Multi-outlet sales of baking and mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2022 and 2023

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

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*databooks not available with UK B2B Industry reports.

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