The US CSD market is valued at just over $58bn for 2026, showing 4.6% YOY growth and cementing its position as a resilient category. Notably, prebiotic claims in CSD launches…
US
Carbonated Soft Drinks
simple
US Carbonated Soft Drinks Market Report 2026
"Enjoyment remains central to CSDs, as consumers look for small moments of indulgence, while continued BFY innovation extends occasions and shifts category perceptions."
Sydney Riebe, Analyst - US Food and Drink
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What you need to know
Outlook for carbonated soft drinks
Opportunities
Utilize foodservice trends to unlock new CSD occasions
Improve considerations of CSDs as the BFY indulgence
Expand CSDs’ role in everyday escapes
Discover the top five trend territories for success in US non-alcoholic beverages using Black Swan’s social prediction technology
THE MARKET
Snapshot – market size and forecast
Consumers and the economic outlook
Market factors
While NA beverage prices remain elevated, they likely are not drastically impacting purchasing
Graph 1: CPI, non-alcoholic beverages, 2023-26
Graph 2: “If prices increase, I will…”, 2025
Low sugar content and natural ingredients top important beverage factors
Graph 3: top beverage purchasing factors, 2026
The USDA aims to restrict soda purchases using SNAP funds
Market size and forecast
Moderate growth expected for the CSD market
Market size and forecast of carbonated soft drinks
Graph 4: total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2021-31
Total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks
Market segmentation
The regular CSD segment falls flat in comparison to diet
Graph 5: total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2021-31
Total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2021-31
Market share/brand share
Coca-Cola stays on top, while smaller brands find strong growth
Graph 6: brand market share of carbonated soft drinks, rolling 52 weeks 2026
MULO+ sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies
Uneven brand performance across top companies in the regular CSD segment
MULO+ sales of regular carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands
Smaller diet CSD brands continue to steal share from leaders
MULO+ sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands
THE CONSUMER
Reinforce the value of enjoyment CSDs provide
Keep pleasure central to CSD consumption
Enhance how CSDs can fit into leisure occasions
Graph 7: non-alcoholic beverage occasions, 2026
Packaging has a strong impact on enjoyment and appeal
Capitalize on where CSDs can fit into healthy lifestyles
Consumers rely on a spectrum of health when it comes to CSDs
Active lifestyles are inclusive of frequent CSD consumption
Graph 8: CSD consumption frequency, by fitness level
Functionality is becoming a beverage expectation
Graph 9: interest in CSD features, by fitness level, 2026
BFY soda can support GLP-1 snacking
Graph 10: CSD behaviors, by GLP-1 usage, 2026
Strengthen how CSDs can fit into snacking occasions
Support younger consumers’ strong relationship with CSDs and snacking
Graph 11: CSD attitudes, by generation, 2026
Make CSDs a centerpiece of family snacking
CSDs can become a small indulgence for financially strained consumers
The future of CSD competitiveness relies on becoming a choice Gen Z beverage
Curate CSD occasions for Gen Z
Graph 13: CSD polar statements – occasion, by generation, 2026
Flexible functionality can win with younger consumers
Graph 14: interest in CSD features, by generation, 2026
Support flavor exploration for curious CSD consumers
Graph 15: CSD polars – flavor, by generation, 2026
PRODUCT, INNOVATION AND MARKETING
Prebiotic claims dominate within CSD launches
Prebiotic soda launches
Functional sodas collaborate seamlessly with health and beauty brands
The dirty soda trend gets canned
Creamy flavor inclusions outperform the CSD market
Hybrid beverages can extend CSD occasions
Nostalgia continues to dominate CSD launches
Minis can help consumers try new flavors with lower risk
APPENDIX
Market definition
The market
Forecast methodology
Forecast methodology – fan chart
Total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
Total retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2024 and 2026
Total retail sales and forecast of regular carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
Total retail sales and forecast of diet carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
Market forecast and prediction intervals for carbonated soft drinks, 2026-31
The consumer
Consumer research questions
Consumer research methodology
Generation groups
Abbreviations
US Carbonated Soft Drinks Industry – Trends and Insights
The US CSD market is valued at just over $58bn for 2026, showing 4.6% YOY growth and cementing its position as a resilient category. Notably, prebiotic claims in CSD launches have surged over the past three years, underscoring the swift functionalization of soda. Enjoyment and BFY benefits now intertwine, challenging traditional perceptions and broadening consumer expectations as new functionality and indulgence become equally central to the drinking experience.
The pace of change is most apparent in the diet/zero-sugar segment, which is estimated to now capture a 34% market share. The jump in GLP-1 weight-loss drug fuels more robust sugar-reduction innovation and aligns with rising pressure for functional and low-calorie sodas.
One of the category’s biggest opportunity lies in translating foodservice trends like boba textures and dirty sodas into retail, catering to Gen Z’s appetite for experiential, multi-sensory products. Conversely, the greatest threat continues to be limited discretionary spending concern with soda’s ingredient lists, but brands that strategically balance indulgence, health cues and affordability are poised to lead the next phase of CSD evolution.
This Report Looks at the Following Areas:
State of the carbonated soft drink market
How to reinforce CSD value through enjoyment
Capitalizing on how CSDs can fit into healthy lifestyles
How to strengthen CSDs in snacking occasions
Connecting with the Gen Z beverage consumer
CSD product innovation and marketing strategies
Market Definitions
For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions:
Carbonated soft drinks are non-alcoholic beverages that have added carbonation. This includes beverages with a range of flavors, sweeteners, and colors. Colas, non-colas, craft, natural and stevia-sweetened CSDs are combined in the regular and diet segments.
This report divides the market into two segments:
Regular carbonated soft drinks, including full-calorie and reduced/mid-calorie soft drinks
Diet or zero-calorie soft drinks
Excluded from this report are flavored and unflavored sparkling water brands such as Perrier, carbonated energy drinks such as Red Bull, carbonated juice drinks, certain hybrid drinks (eg Bai Bubbles) and alcoholic beverages. Sales of CSDs through fountains, vending machines, and foodservice (ie restaurants, cafeterias, food trucks) are also excluded.
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