2026
9
US Carbonated Soft Drinks Market Report 2026
2026-07-13T10:01:29+00:00
REP5EF48FBE_B411_4061_B48F_BEB4118061D7
3695
194764
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Report
en_GB
The US CSD market is valued at just over $58bn for 2026, showing 4.6% YOY growth and cementing its position as a resilient category. Notably, prebiotic claims in CSD launches…
US
Carbonated Soft Drinks
simple

US Carbonated Soft Drinks Market Report 2026

"Enjoyment remains central to CSDs, as consumers look for small moments of indulgence, while continued BFY innovation extends occasions and shifts category perceptions."

Sydney Riebe, Analyst - US Food and Drink

Sydney Riebe, Analyst - US Food and Drink

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  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    • What you need to know
    • Outlook for carbonated soft drinks
    • Opportunities
    • Utilize foodservice trends to unlock new CSD occasions
    • Improve considerations of CSDs as the BFY indulgence
    • Expand CSDs’ role in everyday escapes
    • Discover the top five trend territories for success in US non-alcoholic beverages using Black Swan’s social prediction technology
  2. THE MARKET

    • Snapshot – market size and forecast
    • Consumers and the economic outlook
    • Market factors
    • While NA beverage prices remain elevated, they likely are not drastically impacting purchasing
    • Graph 1: CPI, non-alcoholic beverages, 2023-26
    • Graph 2: “If prices increase, I will…”, 2025
    • Low sugar content and natural ingredients top important beverage factors
    • Graph 3: top beverage purchasing factors, 2026
    • The USDA aims to restrict soda purchases using SNAP funds
    • Market size and forecast
    • Moderate growth expected for the CSD market
    • Market size and forecast of carbonated soft drinks
    • Graph 4: total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2021-31
    • Total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks
    • Market segmentation
    • The regular CSD segment falls flat in comparison to diet
    • Graph 5: total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2021-31
    • Total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2021-31
    • Market share/brand share
    • Coca-Cola stays on top, while smaller brands find strong growth
    • Graph 6: brand market share of carbonated soft drinks, rolling 52 weeks 2026
    • MULO+ sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies
    • Uneven brand performance across top companies in the regular CSD segment
    • MULO+ sales of regular carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands
    • Smaller diet CSD brands continue to steal share from leaders
    • MULO+ sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands
  3. THE CONSUMER

    • Reinforce the value of enjoyment CSDs provide
    • Keep pleasure central to CSD consumption
    • Enhance how CSDs can fit into leisure occasions
    • Graph 7: non-alcoholic beverage occasions, 2026
    • Packaging has a strong impact on enjoyment and appeal
    • Capitalize on where CSDs can fit into healthy lifestyles
    • Consumers rely on a spectrum of health when it comes to CSDs
    • Active lifestyles are inclusive of frequent CSD consumption
    • Graph 8: CSD consumption frequency, by fitness level
    • Functionality is becoming a beverage expectation
    • Graph 9: interest in CSD features, by fitness level, 2026
    • BFY soda can support GLP-1 snacking
    • Graph 10: CSD behaviors, by GLP-1 usage, 2026
    • Strengthen how CSDs can fit into snacking occasions
    • Support younger consumers’ strong relationship with CSDs and snacking
    • Graph 11: CSD attitudes, by generation, 2026
    • Make CSDs a centerpiece of family snacking
    • CSDs can become a small indulgence for financially strained consumers
    • Graph 12: CSD polar statements – amount, by financial situation, 2026
    • The future of CSD competitiveness relies on becoming a choice Gen Z beverage
    • Curate CSD occasions for Gen Z
    • Graph 13: CSD polar statements – occasion, by generation, 2026
    • Flexible functionality can win with younger consumers
    • Graph 14: interest in CSD features, by generation, 2026
    • Support flavor exploration for curious CSD consumers
    • Graph 15: CSD polars – flavor, by generation, 2026
  4. PRODUCT, INNOVATION AND MARKETING

    • Prebiotic claims dominate within CSD launches
    • Prebiotic soda launches
    • Functional sodas collaborate seamlessly with health and beauty brands
    • The dirty soda trend gets canned
    • Creamy flavor inclusions outperform the CSD market
    • Hybrid beverages can extend CSD occasions
    • Nostalgia continues to dominate CSD launches
    • Minis can help consumers try new flavors with lower risk
  5. APPENDIX

    • Market definition
    • The market
    • Forecast methodology
    • Forecast methodology – fan chart
    • Total retail sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
    • Total retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2024 and 2026
    • Total retail sales and forecast of regular carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
    • Total retail sales and forecast of diet carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2021-31
    • Market forecast and prediction intervals for carbonated soft drinks, 2026-31
    • The consumer
    • Consumer research questions
    • Consumer research methodology
    • Generation groups
    • Abbreviations

US Carbonated Soft Drinks Industry – Trends and Insights

  • The US CSD market is valued at just over $58bn for 2026, showing 4.6% YOY growth and cementing its position as a resilient category. Notably, prebiotic claims in CSD launches have surged over the past three years, underscoring the swift functionalization of soda. Enjoyment and BFY benefits now intertwine, challenging traditional perceptions and broadening consumer expectations as new functionality and indulgence become equally central to the drinking experience.
  • The pace of change is most apparent in the diet/zero-sugar segment, which is estimated to now capture a 34% market share. The jump in GLP-1 weight-loss drug fuels more robust sugar-reduction innovation and aligns with rising pressure for functional and low-calorie sodas.
  • One of the category’s biggest opportunity lies in translating foodservice trends like boba textures and dirty sodas into retail, catering to Gen Z’s appetite for experiential, multi-sensory products. Conversely, the greatest threat continues to be limited discretionary spending concern with soda’s ingredient lists, but brands that strategically balance indulgence, health cues and affordability are poised to lead the next phase of CSD evolution.

This Report Looks at the Following Areas:

  • State of the carbonated soft drink market
  • How to reinforce CSD value through enjoyment
  • Capitalizing on how CSDs can fit into healthy lifestyles
  • How to strengthen CSDs in snacking occasions
  • Connecting with the Gen Z beverage consumer
  • CSD product innovation and marketing strategies

Market Definitions

For the purposes of this report, Mintel has used the following definitions:

Carbonated soft drinks are non-alcoholic beverages that have added carbonation. This includes beverages with a range of flavors, sweeteners, and colors. Colas, non-colas, craft, natural and stevia-sweetened CSDs are combined in the regular and diet segments.

This report divides the market into two segments:

  • Regular carbonated soft drinks, including full-calorie and reduced/mid-calorie soft drinks
  • Diet or zero-calorie soft drinks

Excluded from this report are flavored and unflavored sparkling water brands such as Perrier, carbonated energy drinks such as Red Bull, carbonated juice drinks, certain hybrid drinks (eg Bai Bubbles) and alcoholic beverages. Sales of CSDs through fountains, vending machines, and foodservice (ie restaurants, cafeterias, food trucks) are also excluded.

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