2021
9
US Cookies Market Report 2021
2021-06-25T04:09:22+01:00
OX1044807
3695
139707
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Report
en_GB
“The cookie category found significant growth in 2020 due to increased at-home snacking and comfort eating during the COVID-19 pandemic. The category will find continued, although much reduced, growth in…

US Cookies Market Report 2021

£ 3,695 (Excl.Tax)

Description

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the US Cookies market, including the behaviors, preferences and habits of the consumer.

With the COVID-19 pandemic forcing many to stay at home, many turned to comfort eating in 2020 and through into 2021. 44% of those reporting eating more cookies in 2021 are doing so for comfort, seeing strong dollar sales gains of 7.9% in the category. Indulgence is a major factor in cookie consumption, seen as a treat and satisfying cravings.

Pre-pandemic eating habits are expected to return through 2021, with more dining-out opportunities replacing at-home consumption. However, with health becoming increasingly important to consumers there are further opportunities for innovation, such as swapping out processed sugars for dried fruit. At-home baking also provides both a threat and opportunity for the market, potentially luring customers to competing categories such as baking mixes. However, innovations could be made to inject experiences and customizability into their products.

Online shopping has become increasingly popular, accelerated through necessity by the pandemic. 29% of consumers who have increased their cookie consumption in 2021 have purchased them from an online retailer. Ecommerce to provide longer-term opportunities to the category, with potential innovations into subscription services, customization options and special-edition and limited-time cookies.

Read on to discover more details or take a look at all of our US Food and Foodservice market research.

Quickly understand

  • The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the cookie market.
  • Current and expected change in cookie consumption frequency.
  • Reasons for eating cookies more often.
  • Cookie motivations.
  • Interest in cookie innovation.

Covered in this report

Brands: Mondelēz (Oreo, Chips Ahoy!, Nabisco, Belvita, Nilla, Nutter Butter, Tates), Loren, Milk Bar, Levain Cookies, Nestlé, General Mills (Tollhouse, Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, Nature Valley, Annie’s), Aussie Bites, Partake Foods, Fat Snax, Target (Favorite Day), Campbell Soup Company (Milano, Pepperidge Farm), Ferrara Candy Company (Keebler), McKee Foods (Little Debbie), Highkey, PepsiCo (Marias Gamesa), Ben & Jerry’s, Snackmagic, Lesser Evil, Loma Ecológicos, Salem Baking Co., GoGo Quinoa, Honey Stinger, Mmmly, Mother’s Cookies.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Kaitlin Kamp, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The cookie category found significant growth in 2020 due to increased at-home snacking and comfort eating during the COVID-19 pandemic. The category will find continued, although much reduced, growth in 2021, even as consumers slowly return to pre-pandemic routines. Amid the growth, consumers increasingly sought out home-baked options and online purchase channels, and renewed their health aspirations during the pandemic, all of which will challenge category players to compete on experience, convenience and health.
Kaitlin Kamp
Food and Drink Analyst

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • This Report looks at the following areas
    • Definition
    • Market context
    • Economic and other assumptions
    • COVID-19: US context
  2. Executive Summary

    • Top takeaways
    • Market overview
      • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-26
    • Impact of COVID-19 on cookies
      • Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on cookies, May 2021
    • Packaged supermarket cookies lack growth momentum of other formats
      • Figure 3: Change in cookie consumption frequency – NET any planned increase, April 2021
    • Bring the baking experience to packaged cookies
      • Figure 4: OreoID Instagram post and Sweet Loren’s BFY no-bake cookie dough
    • Health aspirations are curbing cookie consumption
      • Figure 5: Reasons for eating cookies less often than last year, April 2021
    • Sugar improvements can provide a health halo
      • Figure 6: Cookie innovation to motivate product trial, April 2021
  3. The Market – Key Takeaways

    • The category is expected to slow to 0.8% growth in 2021 after significant COVID-19 gains
    • Cookie dough rises to meet the at-home baking boom
    • Health aspirations will call for a change in messaging or formulations
    • Competition from bakeries expected to heat up in 2021
    • Scratch baking will remain a challenge
    • Ecommerce adoption presents new channels for packaged cookies
  4. Market Size and Forecast

    • Sales gains settle but are projected to persist through 2021 and beyond
      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-26
  5. Segment Performance

    • Cookie dough is a small but potentially mighty segment
      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies and cookie dough, by segment, at current prices, 2016-26
  6. Market Factors

    • Recent CDC guidelines indicate a return to normal is underway
    • COVID-19 comfort eating could be coming to a close
      • Figure 10: Impact of COVID-19 on food and drink habits, July 2020
    • The snacking landscape remains competitive
    • Sugar content is top of mind
      • Figure 11: Approach to sugar and sweeteners in food, April 2021
    • Bakeries expected to rebound in 2021
      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2015-25
    • Consumers are optimistic about maintaining their newfound baking habits, but burnout is seen
      • Figure 13: Change in baking frequency, January 2021
    • Consumer confidence remains low, but gaining steam
      • Figure 14: Consumer sentiment index, February 2019-April 2021
    • Ecommerce growth points to online opportunities
      • Figure 15: Total US online sales and forecast of groceries*, at current prices, 2015-25
  7. Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

    • Mondelēz holds 40% of market share; Nestlé and General Mills post strong gains
    • Free-from cookies go mainstream but will need to evolve
    • Strike while cookie dough is hot
    • Brands draw from other desserts for flavor inspiration
    • Blur the lines between homemade and packaged cookies
    • Natural sweeteners can communicate health, preserve indulgence
  8. Market Share

    • Mondelēz dominates market share and Nestlé joins the leaderboard
    • Nestlé and General Mills invest in cookie dough and win
    • BFY brands expand the cookie audience
    • Brand power is worth the premium
      • Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of cookies and dough, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
  9. Competitive Strategies

    • Pillsbury launches ready-to-eat cookies and edible no-bake cookie dough
      • Figure 17: Pillsbury soft baked cookies and edible no-bake cookie dough
    • Bakery favorites hit the aisle
      • Figure 18: Packaged cookie offerings from bakeries
    • Free-from cookies go mainstream
      • Figure 19: Free-from cookie products
      • Figure 20: Cookie claims, % change from 2019-2020
    • Brands find indulgent inspiration from other desserts
      • Figure 21: Oreo flavors
      • Figure 22: Chips ahoy! Instagram post
    • ‘90s fan-favorite Dunkaroos gets a reboot
      • Figure 23: Betty Crocker Dunkaroos cookies and cookie dough Instagram post
  10. Market Opportunities

    • Bring DIY to packaged cookies
      • Figure 24: OreoID Instagram post
      • Figure 25: Marias Gamesa Instagram post
    • Now is the time to expand dough portfolios
      • Figure 26: Crosstab, Cookie innovation to motivate trial, by types of cookies consumed, April 2021
      • Figure 27: cookie dough with unique flavors and BFY claims
    • Move away from processed sugar
      • Figure 28: Cookies made with natural sweeteners and no-added sugar claims
    • DTC cookies can encourage experimentation, add personalization
      • Figure 29: DTC cookie offerings
      • Figure 30: Cookie driver attitudes, by age, April 2021
    • Sub out plastic packaging with sustainable solutions
      • Figure 31: Cookie products made without plastic
      • Figure 32: Individually packaged, sustainable cookies
  11. The Consumer – Key Takeaways

    • Cookies have high household penetration, but are largely occasional treats
    • Packaged cookies are the most popular
    • Homemade and online-purchased cookies see pandemic benefits
    • BFY eating curbs cookie consumption
    • Health is desired, not required
    • Frequent cookie consumers are also swayed by other snacks
  12. Types of Cookies Consumed

    • Packaged cookies dominate but disruptions are coming
      • Figure 33: Sweet snack consumption, April 2021
      • Figure 34: Types of cookies consumed, April 2021
    • Homemade cookies give sugar-conscious consumers quality control
      • Figure 35: Types of cookies consumed, by sugar segmentation, April 2021
    • Cookie doughs can bridge the income gap
      • Figure 36: Types of cookies consumed, by household income, April 2021
    • Guide parents to products through occasion-specific marketing
      • Figure 37: Repertoire of types of cookies consumed, by parental status, April 2021
  13. Cookie Consumption Frequency

    • Cookies are occasional treats
      • Figure 38: Cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
      • Figure 39: Cookie consumption frequency – frequency nets, April 2021
    • Young men are the most frequent cookie consumers
      • Figure 40: Cookie consumption frequency, NET, by age and gender, April 2021
    • Encourage moms to reach for cookies more often
      • Figure 41: Cookie consumption frequency, NET, parental status by gender, April 2021
  14. Change in Cookie Consumption Frequency

    • Homemade cookies set to gain the most, but behavior remains in flux
      • Figure 42: Change in cookie consumption frequency, NET cookie types, April 2021
      • Figure 43: NET change in cookie consumption frequency, NET cookie types, April 2021
    • Position cookie doughs as the shortcut cookie mix
      • Figure 44: Change in home baked cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
    • DTC packaged cookies can help the category avoid stagnation
      • Figure 45: Change in packaged cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
    • Prepared cookies faced challenges, but are set to recover soon
      • Figure 46: Change in prepared cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
    • The clock is ticking on increasing women’s engagement
      • Figure 47: Change in prepared cookie consumption frequency, NET, April 2021
  15. Reasons for Eating Cookies More Often

    • At-home comfort eating drives increased consumption during pandemic
      • Figure 48: Reasons for eating cookies more often than last year, April 2021
  16. Reasons for Eating Cookies Less Often

    • Health concerns drive consumers away from cookies
      • Figure 49: Reasons for eating cookies less often than last year, April 2021
  17. Cookie Motivations

    • Cookies still have to be indulgent, craveable
      • Figure 50: Cookie motivations, April 2021
    • Get portable and functional for younger consumers
      • Figure 51: Cookie motivations, by age, April 2021
      • Figure 52: Cookie product examples
    • Women driven to cookies for fun, men for function
      • Figure 53: Cookie motivations, by gender, April 2021
  18. Cookie Attitudes

    • Health isn’t an expectation, but it is desired
      • Figure 54: Cookie health attitudes, April 2021
    • Parents are mindful about cookie health
      • Figure 55: Cookie health attitudes, by parental status, April 2021
    • LTOs may be worth the investment
      • Figure 56: Cookie driver attitudes, April 2021
      • Figure 57: Product examples of limited time cookie offerings
  19. Cookie Replacement

    • Consumers are open to swapping sweet treats for nature’s candy
      • Figure 58: Cookie replacement, April 2021
    • Frequent cookie eaters swayed by other snacks
      • Figure 59: Cookie replacement, by cookie consumption frequency, April 2021
  20. Cookie Innovation to Motivate Trial

    • Pair exciting flavors with BFY ingredients
      • Figure 60: Cookie innovation to motivate product trial, April 2021
    • Salty flavors can add adventure and reduce the sugar
      • Figure 61: Cookies with salty ingredients
      • Figure 62: TURF Analysis – cookie innovation to motivate trial, April 2021
    • Many routes to enticing core users
      • Figure 63: Cookie innovation to motivate product trial, by cookie consumption frequency segmentation, April 2021
    • Women are motivated by BFY improvements
      • Figure 64: Cookie innovation to motivate product trial, by gender, April 2021
  21. Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

    • Data sources
    • Sales data
    • Forecast
    • Consumer survey data
    • TURF methodology
    • Abbreviations and terms
    • Abbreviations
  22. Appendix – Sugar Segmentation

    • Indifferent Eaters
    • Natural Sweet Tooths
    • Sugar Avoiders
    • Low/No Seekers
      • Figure 65: Sugar segmentation, April 2021
  23. Appendix – The Market

      • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies and cookie dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 67: Average household spending on cookies and cookie dough, 2016-21
      • Figure 68: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie dough, by segment, at current prices, 2019 and 2021 (est)
      • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of cookies, by value and volume, 2016-20
      • Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
      • Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of cookie dough, by value and volume, 2016-20
  24. Appendix – Retail Channels

      • Figure 75: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie dough, by channel, at current prices, 2016-21
      • Figure 76: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie dough, by channel, at current prices, 2019 and 2021 (est)
      • Figure 77: US supermarket sales of cookies and cookie dough, at current prices, 2016-21
      • Figure 78: US sales of cookies and cookie dough through other retail channels, at current prices, 2016-21
  25. Appendix – Brand and Company

      • Figure 79: Multi-outlet sales of cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021
      • Figure 80: Multi-outlet sales of cookie dough, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2020 and 2021

About the report

This market report provides in-depth analysis and insight supported by a range of data. At the same time, introductory and top-level content is provided to give you an overview of the issues covered.

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