2020
9
US Dairy and Non-Dairy Market Report 2020
2020-11-03T03:01:39+00:00
OX987220
3695
126949
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Report
en_GB
“The milk market is comprised of two distinct groups, dairy and non-dairy, with the former being the behemoth in terms of market share. However, non-dairy stealthily continues to grow its…

US Dairy and Non-Dairy Market Report 2020

£ 3,695 (Excl.Tax)

Report Summary

Everything you need to make the right decisions

Providing the most comprehensive and up-to-date information and analysis of the Dairy and Non-Dairy Milk – US market including the behaviours, preferences and habits of the consumer.

Mintel has the answers you’re looking for

What are the key challenges facing the industry? Who is the consumer and what do they want? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks and what lies ahead?

Covered in this report

The combined dairy and non-dairy milk categories remained stagnant from 2015-19, with increases in non-dairy milk offset by declines in dairy milk. Both segments are expected to receive a healthy sales boost in 2020, driven in large part by shifts in consumer behavior as a result of COVID-19. Mintel expects that 2021 will see a retraction from these highs, as the category returns to a degree of normalcy. Dairy milk will remain a much larger segment than the non-dairy portion of the market, yet both can leverage various drivers, like wellbeing, value or sustainability, to resonate with consumers emerging from a pandemic and seeking a healthier lifestyle for themselves and their households.

Expert analysis from a specialist in the field

Written by Mimi Bonnett, a leading analyst in the Food & Drink sector, her extensive knowledge delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight current trends and add expert context to the numbers.

The milk market is comprised of two distinct groups, dairy and non-dairy, with the former being the behemoth in terms of market share. However, non-dairy stealthily continues to grow its share through innovation and by leveraging eco-friendly and functional health attributes. While there is a degree of cannibalism between the two categories, there is a more pronounced overlap, with 40% of adults buying both types of milk. COVID-19 triggered increased interest in both dairy and non-dairy milk as Americans prioritized grocery purchases and at-home eating and drinking increased.
Mimi Bonnett
Director

Table of Contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Key issues covered in this Report
        • Definition
        • Executive Summary

            • Top takeaways
              • Market overview
                • Dairy yields to pricing pressures and recession
                  • Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
                • Non-dairy milk continues to gain momentum
                  • Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
                • Impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk
                  • Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk, October 2020
                • Challenges and Opportunities
                  • Re-emergence
                    • Figure 4: Changes in purchase behavior, July 2020
                  • Remind consumers how milk(s) does a body good
                    • Figure 5: Interest in health claims, July 2020
                  • Recovery
                  • The Market – Key Takeaways

                    • Dairy milk prices and supply continue on COVID-19 roller coaster
                      • Desire for health and wellness fuel interest in non-dairy milk
                        • Dairy milk still dominates, but non-dairy increasing its share of the pie
                          • Functional benefits are the new black
                            • Ingredients and flavor innovation reinvigorate the category
                              • Unique plant-based sources for non-dairy
                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                • Pandemic provides a boost to dairy and non-dairy milk sales
                                  • Figure 6: Total US sales of the milk market, at current prices, 2015-20
                                • Higher dairy milk prices and increased grocery spending lifts sales
                                  • Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
                                • Health and wellness trends underscore non-dairy milk boom
                                  • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
                                • Impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk
                                  • Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk, October 2020
                                • Lockdown
                                  • Re-emergence
                                    • Recovery
                                      • COVID-19: US context
                                        • Learnings from the last recession
                                          • Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2007-2012
                                      • Segment Performance

                                        • Non-dairy grows share of category sales
                                          • Figure 11: Total US retail sales of milk, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
                                        • Refrigerated dairy milk accounts for bulk of segment sales
                                          • Figure 12: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
                                        • Coconut and other non-dairy bases are on the fast track
                                          • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
                                      • Market Factors

                                        • Volatility of dairy prices
                                          • Figure 14: Average price of milk (gallon), January 2010-June 2020
                                          • Figure 15: Average price of milk (gallon) during pandemic, March-August 2020
                                        • Pandemic-induced recession disrupts shopping habits
                                          • Figure 16: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000 – May 2020
                                        • Adults aged 25-34 most engaged in category
                                          • Figure 17: Types of milk purchased, by age, July 2020
                                          • Figure 18: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2014-24
                                        • Families are a key demographic for milk marketers
                                          • Figure 19: Types of milk purchased, by parental status, July 2020
                                          • Figure 20: Households by presence of related children, 2008-18
                                      • Market Opportunities

                                        • Elevate nutritional profile with functional benefits
                                          • Indulgence, global culinary influence delivers on experience
                                            • Exploring new sources for non-dairy milk
                                              • Beyond the supermarket
                                                • Figure 21: Total US retail sales of milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
                                              • Address the taste issue
                                              • Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways

                                                • Private label dominates dairy milk
                                                  • Danone and Blue Diamond comprise majority of non-dairy sales
                                                    • Private label marketers accelerating product launch activity
                                                    • Market Share

                                                      • Dairy milk dominated by private label; growth evident in premium brands
                                                        • Figure 22: US multi-outlet market share of dairy milk, by leading companies, 2020
                                                        • Figure 23: US multi-outlet sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                      • Danone and Blue Diamond lead non-dairy milk
                                                        • Figure 24: US multi-outlet market share of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, 2020
                                                        • Figure 25: US multi-outlet sales of non- dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                      • Company/brand sales by segment
                                                        • Refrigerated dairy milk led by premium varieties
                                                          • Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                        • Flavor innovation invigorates shelf-stable dairy milk
                                                          • Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                        • Almond milk performance remains steadfast
                                                          • Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                        • Coconut milk booms with more players competing
                                                          • Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                        • Soy milks continue to struggle
                                                          • Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                        • Oat milk marketers drive growth
                                                          • Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of other non-dairy drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
                                                      • Competitive Strategies

                                                        • MilkPEP reminds Americans to get milk
                                                          • Shift in 2020 strategy: Branded vs. Private Label
                                                            • Figure 32: Dairy milk launches in the US, by private label, 2015-20*
                                                          • Private label ramps up non-dairy innovation
                                                            • Figure 33: Non-dairy milk launches in the US, by private label, 2015-20*
                                                          • Premium brands prepare for increased competition in the dairy aisle
                                                          • The Consumer – Key Takeaways

                                                            • Dairy milk is a household staple; plant-based milks reach majority
                                                              • Dual purchases common, but dairy milk used most often
                                                                • Taste and function support dual purchase habits
                                                                  • Plant based abstainers need convincing
                                                                    • Plant-based milks may be trendy, but they fall short on taste perceptions
                                                                      • Pandemic milk purchase surge already stabalized
                                                                        • Milk’s a great start to the day
                                                                          • Shifting from nutritional health to a functional focus
                                                                          • Milk Purchases

                                                                            • Dairy milk has broad penetration; plant-based milks are bought by 51%
                                                                              • Figure 34: Types of milk purchased (Net), July 2020
                                                                            • Versatility of regular, unflavored milk keeps in on the grocery list
                                                                              • Figure 35: Types of milk purchased, July 2020
                                                                            • Milk purchase is not singular
                                                                              • Figure: 36 Repertoire analysis – Repertoire of milk purchases, July 2020
                                                                            • Millennials embrace plant-based milks
                                                                              • Figure 37: Types of milk purchased, by generation, July 2020
                                                                            • Plant-based milks popular among parents with younger kids
                                                                              • Figure 38: Types of milk purchased, by children in household, July 2020
                                                                          • Milk Usage

                                                                            • Plant-based milks most often bought in addition to dairy milk
                                                                              • Figure 39: Types of milk purchased, by segment, July 2020
                                                                            • Plant-based milks are mostly “one and done”
                                                                              • Figure 40: Types of milk purchased – repertoire of plant-based, July 2020
                                                                            • Dairy milk used most often within household
                                                                              • Figure 41: Type of milk used most often, July 2020
                                                                            • Plant-based milks popular among parents with younger kids
                                                                              • Figure 42: Type of milk used most often, by parental status, July 2020
                                                                          • Reasons for Dual Purchases

                                                                            • Taste and function support dual purchase habits
                                                                              • Figure 43: Reasons for dual purchases, July 2020
                                                                            • Millennials enjoy the taste of dairy and non-dairy milks
                                                                              • Figure 44: Reasons for dual purchases, by generation, July 2020
                                                                            • Parents seek multiple products to satisfy varied palates, needs
                                                                              • Figure 45: Reasons for dual purchases, by parental status, July 2020
                                                                            • Lactose intolerance drives dual purchases among Blacks
                                                                              • Figure 46: Reasons for dual purchases, by race, July 2020
                                                                          • Barriers to Plant-based Milk Purchases

                                                                              • Figure 47: Barriers to plant-based milk purchases, July 2020
                                                                            • Sorry plant-based milks, older consumers are just not that into you
                                                                              • Figure 48: Barriers to plant-based milk purchases, by age, July 2020
                                                                          • Milk Associations

                                                                            • Dairy milks perceived as tasty; non-dairy milks considered trendy
                                                                              • Figure 49: Milk associations, July 2020
                                                                            • Plant-based milks align as healthy for consumers and environment
                                                                              • Figure 50: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Milk associations, July 2020
                                                                              • Figure 51: Correspondence Analysis – Principal map – Milk associations, July 2020
                                                                          • Impact of COVID-19 on Milk Purchases

                                                                            • Pandemic has minimal impact on milk purchase behavior frequency
                                                                              • Figure 52: Changes in purchase behavior, July 2020
                                                                            • Milk purchases among 55+ cohort remains unchanged
                                                                              • Figure 53: Changes in purchase behavior, by age, July 2020
                                                                            • Purchase incidence among parents grows due to pandemic
                                                                              • Figure 54: Changes in purchase behavior, by parental status, July 2020
                                                                            • At-home behaviors drive frequency of milk consumption
                                                                              • Figure 55: Reasons for buying more milk during COVID-19, July 2020
                                                                            • Women use more milk for culinary purposes
                                                                              • Figure 56: Reasons for buying more milk during COVID-19, by gender, July 2020
                                                                          • Attitudes toward Milk

                                                                            • Milk – it’s what’s for breakfast
                                                                              • Figure 57: Attitudes toward milk, July 2020
                                                                            • Millennials pay premium for local sourcing
                                                                              • Figure 58: Attitudes toward milk, by generation, July 2020
                                                                            • Parents see milk as a healthy start to the day
                                                                              • Figure 59: Attitudes toward milk, by parental status, July 2020
                                                                          • Interest in Health Claims

                                                                            • Iconic milk claims still resonate with consumers
                                                                                • Figure 60: Interest in health claims, July 2020
                                                                              • Women seek functional health benefits from milk
                                                                                • Figure 61: Interest in health claims, by gender, July 2020
                                                                              • Gen Z focused on health claims that can benefit them now
                                                                                • Figure 62: Interest in health claims, by generation, July 2020
                                                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                              • Data sources
                                                                                • Sales data
                                                                                  • Forecast
                                                                                    • Consumer survey data
                                                                                      • Direct marketing creative
                                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                            • Terms
                                                                                            • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                • Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
                                                                                                • Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
                                                                                                • Figure 65: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at segment, at current prices, 2015-25
                                                                                                • Figure 66: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at segment, at current prices, 2015-25
                                                                                                • Figure 67: Total US sales of refrigerated dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 68: Total US sales of shelf stable dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 69: Total US sales of almond milk, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 70: Total US sales of coconut milk, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 71: Total US sales of soy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 72: Total US sales of other non-dairy drinks, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 73: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
                                                                                                • Figure 74: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, at channel, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 75: US supermarket sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 76: US drugstore sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 77: US sales of dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 78: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
                                                                                                • Figure 79: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 80: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                                • Figure 81: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
                                                                                            • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                                              • Methodology

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