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US Grocery Retailing Market Report 2025

US Grocery Retailing Market Report 2025

Market Intelligence Reports Food and Drink Retail US

US Grocery Retailing Market Analysis

The US Grocery Retail Market, valued at over $900 billion in 2025, has grown significantly since 2019, with more than 4% increase forecasted for 2025.

Historically, growth has been driven by price sensitivity, with consumers shifting toward store brands and online shopping. Economic factors like tariffs and inflation have influenced shopping behaviors, prompting bulk buying and price comparisons. Going forward, the market is expected to grow at an average of 3.7% annually through 2030, fueled by technology adoption, AI personalization, and consumer demand for sustainability in the grocery retailing industry.

US Grocery Retailing Market Trends

Consumer trends in the US Grocery Market reveal a growing focus on price sensitivity, with shoppers increasingly opting for store brands, bulk buying, and discounts to manage rising costs. There is a shift toward multi-channel shopping, with online grocery purchases gaining popularity, particularly among younger generations. Loyalty programs are gaining traction, as consumers seek value and personalized experiences. Sustainability is also a key concern, with many expecting grocers to take steps toward reducing food waste. Additionally, technology and AI-driven personalization are becoming integral, as consumers embrace mobile-friendly and seamless shopping experiences.

Purchasing the US Grocery Retailing Market Report 2025 reveals rising demand for value-driven shopping, including store brands and discounts, alongside the growth of multi-channel shopping and AI-driven personalization. It also highlights opportunities in sustainability and the shift towards flexible payment options and tailored solutions to meet evolving consumer needs in the Grocery Retailing Market.

About The Report

The US Grocery Retailing Market Report 2025 provides valuable insights into key Grocery Retail trends, including the rising demand for value-driven shopping, store brands, and discount promotions shaping the grocery retail industry. It explores the growth of multi-channel shopping, AI-driven personalization, and sustainability initiatives in response to shifting consumer preferences. The Grocery Retailing Market Report covers various areas such as consumer behavior, market dynamics, technological advancements, and pricing trends. It will benefit retailers, marketers, technology providers, and investors looking to understand market shifts, consumer needs, and opportunities for innovation in the grocery retailing industry.

Key Topics Analyzed in the Report

Market and economic factors impacting grocery, including tariffs
How consumers approach grocery shopping
Retailers shopped for groceries and driving factors to shop at the primary retailer
Shopping behaviors, including mobile usage
Brand loyalty and switching
Consumers’ interest in features and services at grocery
Innovation and the future of grocery

Report Attributes	Details
Published Date	June 2025
Data Range	2020-2030
Measurement Metrics	Revenue in US $
Country Focus	United States of America (USA)
Consumer Data	1,823 internet users aged 18+, April 2025
Number of Pages	83
Market Segmentation	Fresh Meat, Poultry, Seafood, Dairy Products, Frozen Foods, Produce, Bakery Items, Deli Items, Beverages, Non-Perishable Food Products, Fresh Prepared Meals, Coffee, Alcoholic Beverages, and Alcohol Alternatives
Leading Companies	Walmart, Target, Kroger, ALDI, Costco, Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods Market, Trader Joe’s, Sam’s Club, H-E-B, Publix, Amazon, Costco, Target Circle, Hy-Vee, Giant, Bed Bath & Beyond, PetSmart, Chewy, Fred Meyer, Sprouts Farmers Market, Casey’s General Store, Cava, and Lifvs

Meet the Expert Behind the Analysis

This report was written by Katie Hansen. Katie joined Mintel in July 2019 and writes a variety of Reports within the retail and ecommerce space. She has experience in researching consumer behavior and enjoys observing the ever-evolving retail landscape, consumers’ changing behaviors and uncovering the “why” behind those behaviors.

Tariffs, technology and tastes are transforming the grocery landscape as consumers adapt to prices and seek personalized shopping experiences.

Katie Hansen

Senior Analyst – Retail & eCommerce

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- What you need to know
- Market size & forecast
- Market predictions
- What consumers want & why
- Opportunities
- The future of grocery lies in tech, personalization and enjoyable experiences
MARKET DYNAMICS
- Market context
- Impact of tariffs on grocery retailing & consumer behavior
- Tariffs cast a cloud over grocery
- Consumers will shop around before resorting to behavior changes
- Graph 1: consumer behavior changes in response to grocery price increases, 2025
- Consumers facing financial difficulties are more likely to make significant changes
- Graph 2: consumer behavior changes in response to grocery price increases, by financial situation, 2025
- At the end of the day, consumers want to see a relief plan from grocers
- Small grocers face a steeper uphill climb when it comes to dealing with tariffs
- Additional market drivers
- Grocery associations support EPA’s deregulation efforts
- AI adoption will lead to improved personalization, product innovation and optimized stores
- Market size and forecast
- The industry should see sales growth, so long as tariffs stay at bay
- Tariff outlook remains fluid
- Tariff wars: potential scenarios in 2025
- An average 3.7% yearly growth rate is currently expected through 2030
- Retail sales and forecast of total multi-outlet groceries at current prices
- Market segmentation
- Competition remains fierce as outlets other than supermarkets take a larger share of the grocery market
- Supermarkets continue to lose share to other channels
- Graph 3: multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, by segment, at current prices, 2019-30
- Retail sales of groceries at supermarkets
- Retail sales of groceries at other MULO channels
- Opportunities for grocers in health, beauty and household goods
- MULO sales of groceries, by category
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
- Consumer fast facts
- Consumer fast facts (cont.)
- Approach to grocery shopping
- Reduced shopping frequency indicating consumers are trying to stretch groceries and budgets
- Graph 4: grocery shopping frequency, 2023-25
- Grocers have opportunity to encourage weekly planning with younger consumers
- Graph 5: grocery shopping frequency, by key demographics, 2025
- Multi-channel shopping is the norm – now and in the future
- In-store shopping is still preferred while online gains traction
- Graph 6: channel shopped, 2025
- Younger, multicultural consumers and parents are driving online grocery/multi-channel shopping
- Graph 7: channel shopped, by key demographics, 2025
- Dads would benefit from an assist in grocery
- Despite declining usage, curbside remains important for grocers moving forward
- Graph 8: delivery and pick-up preference, 2025
- Walmart taps into customized geospatial technology for delivery
- Trip consolidation remains the name of the game, but tariffs could alter the status quo
- Graph 9: number of retailers shopped per trip, 2025
- Younger consumers and lower income households seek out multiple stores while grocery shopping
- Graph 10: number of retailers shopped per trip, by generation and household income, 2025
- Addressing the income divide while grocery shopping
- Consumers still prefer to shop in-store for more delicate items and immediate needs
- Stores remain preferred channel for fresh items and immediate needs
- Graph 11: trip type by channel, 2025
- Shopping by category
- Online shopping continues to climb for each category
- Exclusively purchasing items in-store decreases across categories
- Graph 12: shopping method by category, 2025
- Online shopping continues to grow
- Graph 13: shopping method by category – any online shopping, 2024-25
- Beverages are a gateway to shopping for groceries online
- Graph 14: shopping method by category nets, 2025
- Graph 15: shopping method net by category nets, 2025
- Younger consumers are more comfortable shopping online for fresh items
- Graph 16: any online shopping net by category, by generation, 2025
- Retailers shopped and key drivers of retailer preference
- Consumers continue their search for the right grocer
- Shopping consolidation continues but could be threatened by pricing
- Graph 17: attitudes toward grocery shopping trips, 2025
- Walmart continues to lead the grocery race as Target navigates uncertain waters
- Graph 18: retailers shopped, 2025
- Consumers seek out retailers with everyday value
- Shopping methods remain consistent at consumers’ primary grocer
- Graph 19: shopping method at primary retailer, 2025
- Mobile is the path forward for younger consumers shopping for groceries online
- Loyalty programs are driving interest at consumers’ primary grocer
- Graph 20: driving factors to shop at primary grocer – any importance, 2025
- Value is more than price for younger shoppers
- Graph 21: driving factors to shop at primary grocer, by generation, 2025
- Kroger taps into TikTok to offer trendy items
- Retailers can leverage a variety of pricing strategies to grab consumers’ attention
- Graph 22: influential promotional tactics, 2025
- Promotional value exists beyond a dollar amount for younger generations
- Graph 23: influential promotional tactics, by generation, 2025
- BrightFarms & Instacart partner for “Quitter’s Day” themed campaign
- For financially struggling consumers, every promotion counts
- Graph 24: influential promotional tactics, by financial situation, 2025
- Shopping behaviors including mobile usage
- Shopping behaviors revolve around value, convenience and health
- Graph 25: grocery shopping behaviors, 2025
- Shopping behaviors revolve around value, convenience and health (cont.)
- French grocer Auchan explores Unstaffed Sundays
- Retailers can build connection with younger generations through customer service
- Graph 26: grocery shopping behaviors, by generation, 2025
- Mobile devices play a vital role during the in-store shopping process
- Graph 27: mobile use while shopping for groceries in-store, 2025
- Consumers use their mobile device to be in-the-know while grocery shopping
- Graph 28: how mobile is used in-store, 2025
- Boomers are practical mobile users
- Graph 29: mobile use while shopping for groceries in-store, by gender and generation, 2025
- Wegmans improves its mobile experience
- Brand loyalty and switching
- Buying store brands, switching are under consideration for consumers
- Graph 30: attitudes toward brand switching, 2025
- Coffee, snacks, meat and frozen food remain the leading categories for customer loyalty
- Graph 31: brand loyalty by product category, 2025
- Price and new flavors remain most influential with word of mouth gaining traction
- Graph 32: motivations to switch brands, 2025
- Leveraging social media and personalization are major opportunities to motivate younger consumers to switch brands
- Graph 33: motivations to switch brands, by gender and generation, 2025
- Social media shapes how consumers shop
- Interest in features and services
- Grocers have ample opportunity to add value through services
- Grocers should tap into experiences to drive interest and loyalty at stores
- Graph 34: in-store experiences of interest, 2025
- Boomers value sampling and convenience while younger gens seek out experiential offerings
- Graph 35: in-store experiences of interest, by generation, 2025
- Earth Fare and GenoPalate partner to offer personalized meal kits designed for specific health goals
- Education is still needed for tech adoption
- Graph 36: technologies of interest, 2025
- Younger consumers will drive grocery tech adoption
- Graph 37: technologies of interest, by generation, 2025
- Innovation in grocery
- Like tech, consumers need time to adapt to grocery innovations
- Graph 38: innovation in grocery, 2025
- Virtual reality upgrades offer new frontiers for grocers
- AI will be part of grocery for future generations
- Graph 39: innovations in grocery, by gender and generation, 2025
GROCER STRATEGIES
- Wegmans taps into experiences via its new sushi restaurant
- Los Feliz Albertsons’ unofficial Instagram page becomes a meme-based fan account
- Kroger’s Elite Ate snack bracket ties into March Madness fun
- Schnucks taps into localism
- Sustainability will continue to play a key role in the future of grocery
- Earth Fare partners with Flashfood to sell grocery staples nearing their best-buy date at a greatly reduced price
APPENDIX
- Market definition
- Consumer research questions
- Consumers research questions (cont)
- Additional consumer research questions
- Consumer research methodology
- Generations
- Abbreviations and terms
- Forecast methodology
- Forecast fan chart methodology
- Retail sales and forecast of total multi-outlet groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Retail sales and forecast at supermarkets, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Retail sales and forecast at other multi-outlet groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices
- Retail sales of groceries by category, at supermarkets at current prices
- Retail sales of groceries by category, at other multi-outlet retailers at current prices

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