2026
9
US Grocery Retailing Market Report 2026
2026-07-03T10:03:18+00:00
REP16AC4CF9_F475_4664_AC4C_F9F4752664C9
3695
194650
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Report
en_GB
The US grocery sector is expected to exceed $1.1T in spending in 2026, much of which is driven by persistent inflation. While topline gains look healthy, underlying consumer behaviors tell…
US
Food and Drink Retail
simple

US Grocery Retailing Market Report 2026

The US grocery sector is expected to exceed $1.1T in spending in 2026, much of which is driven by persistent inflation.

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  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    • What you need to know
    • Outlook for US grocery retailing
    • Opportunities
    • Redefining value for the modern shopper
    • Become a place to experience more than groceries
    • Tap AI to help consumers with their tailored journey
  2. THE MARKET

    • Snapshot – market size and forecast
    • Consumers are feeling the squeeze on their wallets, leading to trade-offs at grocery
    • Younger consumers’ behaviors and preferences will shape the next evolution of grocery
    • AI is redefining the shopper role from active chooser to guided consumer
    • Despite steady growth for the grocery market, consumers will continue to approach grocery shopping with a value-focused mindset
    • Market size and forecast of groceries
    • Graph 1: total retail sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2021-31
    • MULO channels continue to heavily outpace supermarkets
    • Market size and forecast of supermarkets and other MULO channels
    • Graph 2: total retail sales and forecast of groceries, by segment, at current prices, 2021-31
  3. THE CONSUMER

    • The Grocery Shopper Snapshot
    • Grocery shopping is typically part of the weekly routine
    • Graph 3: grocery shopping frequency, by generation, 2026
    • Online, multichannel shopping continues to make headway year-over-year…
    • Graph 4: channel shopped for groceries, 2024-26
    • Graph 5: grocery retrieval method, 2024-26
    • …meaning grocers need a dual strategy to win diverse shopping trips
    • Graph 6: channel shopped by shopping occasion, 2026
    • Younger consumers will drive adoption for online grocery, indicating that grocers need to continue to evolve their omnichannel strategies
    • Graph 7: channel shopped by purchase occasion – in-store, by key demographics, 2026
    • Graph 8: channel shopped by shopping occasion – online, by key demographics, 2026
    • Walmart continues on its grocery hot-streak
    • Graph 9: retailer shopped – any shopping, 2026
    • Younger shoppers are building grocery habits across broader, less traditional ecosystems
    • Value-seeking is becoming channel-driven, not just promotion-driven
    • Winning on value
    • Value is now the baseline, not a niche mindset
    • Graph 10: attitudes around value at grocery, 2026
    • How to create a value system for shoppers:
    • The value equation is moving beyond product at shelf
    • Graph 11: important factors in choosing where to shop for groceries, 2026
    • Consumers are looking to maximize value, but how they do so varies by generation
    • Older generations are focused on traditional value offers while younger consumers are more likely to adapt their choices
    • Graph 12: behaviors taken in response to rising prices, 2026
    • Even consumers in healthier financial situations are changing behaviors to mitigate rising prices
    • Graph 13: behaviors taken in response to rising prices, by financial situation, 2026
    • Grocers are revamping loyalty programs and offering more perks to enhance the value of their grocery offering
    • Innovation in grocery
    • Consumers are looking for a modern grocery experience
    • Graph 14: attitudes toward future grocery developments, 2026
    • Consumers seek experiential retail, personalization and tangible proof points from future grocery innovations
    • Graph 15: interest in grocery innovations, 2026
    • In-store innovations will help grocers connect with multicultural consumers
    • Graph 16: interest in grocery innovations, by race or ethnicity, 2026
    • The AI impact
    • How grocers are expanding the grocery experience
  4. APPENDIX

    • Market definition
    • The market
    • Market size sources and methodology
    • Forecast methodology
    • Forecast methodology – fan chart
    • Market size and forecast of grocery
    • Market size of grocery, by segment
    • Market size and forecast of grocery at inflation-adjusted prices
    • The consumer
    • Consumer research questions
    • Consumer research methodology – US
    • US generation groups
    • Abbreviations
Download Report Summary

"Driven by AI and technological advancements, grocery shopping is transforming into a highly personalized journey. The future of grocery stores extends beyond simple transactions, evolving into community hubs that offer value-added services like cooking classes, social events, and personalized health and wellness advice."

Katie Hansen, Senior Analyst - Retail & eCommerce

Katie Hansen, Senior Analyst - Retail & eCommerce

US Grocery Retail Industry – Trends and Insights

  • The US grocery sector is expected to exceed $1.1T in spending in 2026, much of which is driven by persistent inflation. While topline gains look healthy, underlying consumer behaviors tell a story of cautious households managing constrained budgets, reshaping the growth narrative.
  • MULO channels are outpacing supermarkets thanks to powerful value propositions and seamless convenience. Supermarkets are squeezed, as shoppers hunt both online and offline for the best balance of price, speed and experience. Omnichannel delivery and improved loyalty offerings are re-ordering the entire set of competitors.
  • One of the industry’s largest opportunity lies in leveraging AI to personalize offers, boost basket sizes and strengthen loyalty. Yet this opportunity is shadowed by an increasing desire for value, as consumers want more than low prices from grocers. Winning retailers will combine competitive pricing with technologies that personalize the journey and deliver experiences that go beyond the shelf.

This Report Looks at the Following Areas:

  • Economic conditions impacting consumer spending and behavior at grocery
  • Where consumers are shopping and how habits are changing across generations
  • How grocers can win on value beyond pricing strategies
  • Innovation in grocery and where the category is headed

Report Scope

This report focuses on all retail channels that provide grocery products including traditional supermarkets, warehouse clubs, natural markets, drug stores, dollar stores, and internet retailers.

Groceries are defined as products such as food, beverages, household goods (e.g. cleaning products, toilet paper, grocery bags), and/or personal care products. The primary focus of the research is on food and beverages.

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