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Report
en_GB
The US grocery sector is expected to exceed $1.1T in spending in 2026, much of which is driven by persistent inflation. While topline gains look healthy, underlying consumer behaviors tell…
US
Food and Drink Retail
simple
US Grocery Retailing Market Report 2026
"Driven by AI and technological advancements, grocery shopping is transforming into a highly personalized journey. The future of grocery stores extends beyond simple transactions, evolving into community hubs that offer value-added services like cooking classes, social events, and personalized health and wellness advice."
The US grocery sector is expected to exceed $1.1T in spending in 2026, much of which is driven by persistent inflation. While topline gains look healthy, underlying consumer behaviors tell a story of cautious households managing constrained budgets, reshaping the growth narrative.
MULO channels are outpacing supermarkets thanks to powerful value propositions and seamless convenience. Supermarkets are squeezed, as shoppers hunt both online and offline for the best balance of price, speed and experience. Omnichannel delivery and improved loyalty offerings are re-ordering the entire set of competitors.
One of the industry’s largest opportunity lies in leveraging AI to personalize offers, boost basket sizes and strengthen loyalty. Yet this opportunity is shadowed by an increasing desire for value, as consumers want more than low prices from grocers. Winning retailers will combine competitive pricing with technologies that personalize the journey and deliver experiences that go beyond the shelf.
This Report Looks at the Following Areas:
Economic conditions impacting consumer spending and behavior at grocery
Where consumers are shopping and how habits are changing across generations
How grocers can win on value beyond pricing strategies
Innovation in grocery and where the category is headed
Report Scope
This report focuses on all retail channels that provide grocery products including traditional supermarkets, warehouse clubs, natural markets, drug stores, dollar stores, and internet retailers.
Groceries are defined as products such as food, beverages, household goods (e.g. cleaning products, toilet paper, grocery bags), and/or personal care products. The primary focus of the research is on food and beverages.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What you need to know
Outlook for US grocery retailing
Opportunities
Redefining value for the modern shopper
Become a place to experience more than groceries
Tap AI to help consumers with their tailored journey
THE MARKET
Snapshot – market size and forecast
Consumers are feeling the squeeze on their wallets, leading to trade-offs at grocery
Younger consumers’ behaviors and preferences will shape the next evolution of grocery
AI is redefining the shopper role from active chooser to guided consumer
Despite steady growth for the grocery market, consumers will continue to approach grocery shopping with a value-focused mindset
Market size and forecast of groceries
Graph 1: total retail sales and forecast of groceries, at current prices, 2021-31
MULO channels continue to heavily outpace supermarkets
Market size and forecast of supermarkets and other MULO channels
Graph 2: total retail sales and forecast of groceries, by segment, at current prices, 2021-31
THE CONSUMER
The Grocery Shopper Snapshot
Grocery shopping is typically part of the weekly routine
Graph 3: grocery shopping frequency, by generation, 2026
Online, multichannel shopping continues to make headway year-over-year…
Graph 4: channel shopped for groceries, 2024-26
Graph 5: grocery retrieval method, 2024-26
…meaning grocers need a dual strategy to win diverse shopping trips
Graph 6: channel shopped by shopping occasion, 2026
Younger consumers will drive adoption for online grocery, indicating that grocers need to continue to evolve their omnichannel strategies
Graph 7: channel shopped by purchase occasion – in-store, by key demographics, 2026
Graph 8: channel shopped by shopping occasion – online, by key demographics, 2026
Walmart continues on its grocery hot-streak
Graph 9: retailer shopped – any shopping, 2026
Younger shoppers are building grocery habits across broader, less traditional ecosystems
Value-seeking is becoming channel-driven, not just promotion-driven
Winning on value
Value is now the baseline, not a niche mindset
Graph 10: attitudes around value at grocery, 2026
How to create a value system for shoppers:
The value equation is moving beyond product at shelf
Graph 11: important factors in choosing where to shop for groceries, 2026
Consumers are looking to maximize value, but how they do so varies by generation
Older generations are focused on traditional value offers while younger consumers are more likely to adapt their choices
Graph 12: behaviors taken in response to rising prices, 2026
Even consumers in healthier financial situations are changing behaviors to mitigate rising prices
Graph 13: behaviors taken in response to rising prices, by financial situation, 2026
Grocers are revamping loyalty programs and offering more perks to enhance the value of their grocery offering
Innovation in grocery
Consumers are looking for a modern grocery experience
Consumers seek experiential retail, personalization and tangible proof points from future grocery innovations
Graph 15: interest in grocery innovations, 2026
In-store innovations will help grocers connect with multicultural consumers
Graph 16: interest in grocery innovations, by race or ethnicity, 2026
The AI impact
How grocers are expanding the grocery experience
APPENDIX
Market definition
The market
Market size sources and methodology
Forecast methodology
Forecast methodology – fan chart
Market size and forecast of grocery
Market size of grocery, by segment
Market size and forecast of grocery at inflation-adjusted prices
The consumer
Consumer research questions
Consumer research methodology – US
US generation groups
Abbreviations
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