[{"name":"Food and Drink Retail","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/industries\/retail\/food-drink"},{"name":"Market Intelligence Reports","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/report-type\/market-intelligence-reports"},{"name":"US","url":"https:\/\/store.mintel.com\/markets\/us-market-research"}]
Report
en_GB
This Report explores the current state and future trends of the US grocery retail market, highlighting the impact of tariffs and technological advancements – particularly AI – on consumer behavior…
US
Food and Drink Retail
simple
US Grocery Retailing Market Report 2025
"Tariffs, technology and tastes are transforming the grocery landscape as consumers adapt to prices and seek personalized shopping experiences."
Katie Hansen, Senior Analyst - Retail & eCommerce
Collapse All
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What you need to know
Market size & forecast
Market predictions
What consumers want & why
Opportunities
The future of grocery lies in tech, personalization and enjoyable experiences
MARKET DYNAMICS
Market context
Impact of tariffs on grocery retailing & consumer behavior
Tariffs cast a cloud over grocery
Consumers will shop around before resorting to behavior changes
Graph 1: consumer behavior changes in response to grocery price increases, 2025
Consumers facing financial difficulties are more likely to make significant changes
Graph 2: consumer behavior changes in response to grocery price increases, by financial situation, 2025
At the end of the day, consumers want to see a relief plan from grocers
Small grocers face a steeper uphill climb when it comes to dealing with tariffs
Additional market drivers
Grocery associations support EPA’s deregulation efforts
AI adoption will lead to improved personalization, product innovation and optimized stores
Market size and forecast
The industry should see sales growth, so long as tariffs stay at bay
Tariff outlook remains fluid
Tariff wars: potential scenarios in 2025
An average 3.7% yearly growth rate is currently expected through 2030
Retail sales and forecast of total multi-outlet groceries at current prices
Market segmentation
Competition remains fierce as outlets other than supermarkets take a larger share of the grocery market
Supermarkets continue to lose share to other channels
Graph 3: multi-outlet sales and forecast of groceries, by segment, at current prices, 2019-30
Retail sales of groceries at supermarkets
Retail sales of groceries at other MULO channels
Opportunities for grocers in health, beauty and household goods
MULO sales of groceries, by category
CONSUMER INSIGHTS
Consumer fast facts
Consumer fast facts (cont.)
Approach to grocery shopping
Reduced shopping frequency indicating consumers are trying to stretch groceries and budgets
Graph 4: grocery shopping frequency, 2023-25
Grocers have opportunity to encourage weekly planning with younger consumers
Graph 5: grocery shopping frequency, by key demographics, 2025
Multi-channel shopping is the norm – now and in the future
In-store shopping is still preferred while online gains traction
Graph 6: channel shopped, 2025
Younger, multicultural consumers and parents are driving online grocery/multi-channel shopping
Graph 7: channel shopped, by key demographics, 2025
Dads would benefit from an assist in grocery
Despite declining usage, curbside remains important for grocers moving forward
Graph 8: delivery and pick-up preference, 2025
Walmart taps into customized geospatial technology for delivery
Trip consolidation remains the name of the game, but tariffs could alter the status quo
Graph 9: number of retailers shopped per trip, 2025
Younger consumers and lower income households seek out multiple stores while grocery shopping
Graph 10: number of retailers shopped per trip, by generation and household income, 2025
Addressing the income divide while grocery shopping
Consumers still prefer to shop in-store for more delicate items and immediate needs
Stores remain preferred channel for fresh items and immediate needs
Graph 11: trip type by channel, 2025
Shopping by category
Online shopping continues to climb for each category
Exclusively purchasing items in-store decreases across categories
Graph 12: shopping method by category, 2025
Online shopping continues to grow
Graph 13: shopping method by category – any online shopping, 2024-25
Beverages are a gateway to shopping for groceries online
Graph 14: shopping method by category nets, 2025
Graph 15: shopping method net by category nets, 2025
Younger consumers are more comfortable shopping online for fresh items
Graph 16: any online shopping net by category, by generation, 2025
Retailers shopped and key drivers of retailer preference
Consumers continue their search for the right grocer
Shopping consolidation continues but could be threatened by pricing
Walmart continues to lead the grocery race as Target navigates uncertain waters
Graph 18: retailers shopped, 2025
Consumers seek out retailers with everyday value
Shopping methods remain consistent at consumers’ primary grocer
Graph 19: shopping method at primary retailer, 2025
Mobile is the path forward for younger consumers shopping for groceries online
Loyalty programs are driving interest at consumers’ primary grocer
Graph 20: driving factors to shop at primary grocer – any importance, 2025
Value is more than price for younger shoppers
Graph 21: driving factors to shop at primary grocer, by generation, 2025
Kroger taps into TikTok to offer trendy items
Retailers can leverage a variety of pricing strategies to grab consumers’ attention
Graph 22: influential promotional tactics, 2025
Promotional value exists beyond a dollar amount for younger generations
Graph 23: influential promotional tactics, by generation, 2025
BrightFarms & Instacart partner for “Quitter’s Day” themed campaign
For financially struggling consumers, every promotion counts
Graph 24: influential promotional tactics, by financial situation, 2025
Shopping behaviors including mobile usage
Shopping behaviors revolve around value, convenience and health
Graph 25: grocery shopping behaviors, 2025
Shopping behaviors revolve around value, convenience and health (cont.)
French grocer Auchan explores Unstaffed Sundays
Retailers can build connection with younger generations through customer service
Graph 26: grocery shopping behaviors, by generation, 2025
Mobile devices play a vital role during the in-store shopping process
Graph 27: mobile use while shopping for groceries in-store, 2025
Consumers use their mobile device to be in-the-know while grocery shopping
Graph 28: how mobile is used in-store, 2025
Boomers are practical mobile users
Graph 29: mobile use while shopping for groceries in-store, by gender and generation, 2025
Wegmans improves its mobile experience
Brand loyalty and switching
Buying store brands, switching are under consideration for consumers
Graph 30: attitudes toward brand switching, 2025
Coffee, snacks, meat and frozen food remain the leading categories for customer loyalty
Graph 31: brand loyalty by product category, 2025
Price and new flavors remain most influential with word of mouth gaining traction
Graph 32: motivations to switch brands, 2025
Leveraging social media and personalization are major opportunities to motivate younger consumers to switch brands
Graph 33: motivations to switch brands, by gender and generation, 2025
Social media shapes how consumers shop
Interest in features and services
Grocers have ample opportunity to add value through services
Grocers should tap into experiences to drive interest and loyalty at stores
Graph 34: in-store experiences of interest, 2025
Boomers value sampling and convenience while younger gens seek out experiential offerings
Graph 35: in-store experiences of interest, by generation, 2025
Earth Fare and GenoPalate partner to offer personalized meal kits designed for specific health goals
Education is still needed for tech adoption
Graph 36: technologies of interest, 2025
Younger consumers will drive grocery tech adoption
Graph 37: technologies of interest, by generation, 2025
Innovation in grocery
Like tech, consumers need time to adapt to grocery innovations
Graph 38: innovation in grocery, 2025
Virtual reality upgrades offer new frontiers for grocers
AI will be part of grocery for future generations
Graph 39: innovations in grocery, by gender and generation, 2025
GROCER STRATEGIES
Wegmans taps into experiences via its new sushi restaurant
Los Feliz Albertsons’ unofficial Instagram page becomes a meme-based fan account
Kroger’s Elite Ate snack bracket ties into March Madness fun
Schnucks taps into localism
Sustainability will continue to play a key role in the future of grocery
Earth Fare partners with Flashfood to sell grocery staples nearing their best-buy date at a greatly reduced price
APPENDIX
Market definition
Consumer research questions
Consumers research questions (cont)
Additional consumer research questions
Consumer research methodology
Generations
Abbreviations and terms
Forecast methodology
Forecast fan chart methodology
Retail sales and forecast of total multi-outlet groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices
Retail sales and forecast at supermarkets, at inflation-adjusted prices
Retail sales and forecast at other multi-outlet groceries, at inflation-adjusted prices
Retail sales of groceries by category, at supermarkets at current prices
Retail sales of groceries by category, at other multi-outlet retailers at current prices
US Grocery Retail Market – Trends and Insights
While 75% of consumers grocery shop at least weekly, there has been a notable decline in frequency since 2024. This shift reflects how many shoppers are making their groceries last longer between trips to better manage their budgets.
The trend toward multi-channel shopping continues to grow, with more consumers embracing online grocery purchases. Mintel predicts this shift will accelerate as younger generations who are more comfortable with digital platforms drive online adoption. This behavior offers a glimpse into the future of grocery shopping as these consumers mature.
Price sensitivity remains a major factor influencing where consumers choose to shop, often challenging brand loyalty. Shoppers increasingly gravitate toward retailers that provide high-quality store brands, attractive promotions and enhanced in-store experiences.
While price will always play a pivotal role, there is significant potential for grocers to innovate and transform grocery shopping into an experience that goes beyond simply buying food.
Key Topics Analyzed in the Report
Market and economic factors impacting grocery, including tariffs
How consumers approach grocery shopping
Retailers shopped for groceries and driving factors to shop at the primary retailer
Shopping behaviors, including mobile usage
Brand loyalty and switching
Consumers’ interest in features and services at grocery
Innovation and the future of grocery
Report Attributes
Details
Published Date
June 2025
Data Range
2020-2030
Measurement Metrics
Revenue in US $
Country Focus
United States of America (USA)
Consumer Data
1,823 internet users aged 18+, April 2025
Number of Pages
83
Market Segmentation
Supermarkets, Other MULO (Food/drink, HBC, Household)
Instant delivery when paying by credit card, invoice orders may take longer
Save up to 20% when you purchase multiple reports
Save 10% when you purchase two reports together.
Save 15% when you purchase three reports together.
Save 20% when your purchase four or more together.
Discount automatically applied at checkout
Need help before you buy?
Our research specialists can answer your questions and recommend the reports that best match your business needs.
One of the biggest challenges we face is the need to get smart on a business or category real quick.
We are talking to clients who live and breathe their category every day and the expectation is that we will be able to get caught up very quickly, and bring the thinking that can help them.
We need to do that often in a matter of days, so it’s not a small ask. Mintel gives us a very articulate view of category conditions and does so at the speed we need it.
Jeff White, Business Development Director, Deutsch
Mintel is really good for getting a handle on a particular category quickly. If we are working on a new business pitch in an area we don’t have much experience in, it’s a brilliant way to get up to speed with what’s going on, what’s changing and what the key trends are in any category.
It’s very rare now that anyone will plough through a 200-page report – that’s why the summaries are really useful. We know they are backed up by a lot of detail, so if you need to go into something in more depth you know the information will be all there for you.
Pauline Robson, Managing Partner, Mediacom
We’ve found it so useful working more closely with Mintel. They helped support our recent flagship event for our top suppliers by providing a really unique viewpoint on the future of online retailing.
Nick Carroll from their Retail Team was also an excellent panelist, sharing useful and actionable consumer insights. We definitely look forward to working with Mintel again on future projects.
Zac Steele, E-Commerce Trading Development Manager, Waitrose & Partners
Mintel helps us when we want to know something quickly – it provides fast answers to our questions. If we need to get a view of what’s going on in a particular market it’s very useful.
When carrying out background research, I find Mintel an excellent starting point.
The fact that it covers so many markets is a big plus for me– instead of having to buy specialist products in each area we are interested in, especially when we only require a brief view on a particular market, we can go to Mintel for help as a one-stop shop. I find Mintel a useful and valuable resource.
Ben Zeidler, Director - Research and Analytics, Tenth Wave
Working in a customer-obsessed organization means that data and insights have to be at our fingertips. Mintel’s reports help us support anecdotes with real quantifiable insights. The summary sections (which I really like) helps save time by giving a birds eye view of the content before spending time combing through the pages.
Our business review discussions are strengthened by the relevancy of the reports to help us better understand our customers. In addition, the customer service received from the team (especially in crunch periods) makes the process of understanding customer behavior even better.