US Hot and Cold Cereal Market Report 2022
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This report provides comprehensive and current information and analysis of the Hot and Cold Cereal market including Hot and Cold Cereal market size, anticipated market forecast, relevant market segmentation, and industry trends for the Hot and Cold Cereal market in the US.
Current market landscape
Cereal brands are at risk of being negatively impacted by the mainstream adoption of non-dairy milks: seven in 10 US adults whose households consume cereal agree cereal tastes best with dairy milk. The rapid growth of non-dairy milk may be pushing the cereal category out of view for many. To stem potential consumer base loss, cereal brands should put effort toward strengthening their association and taste compatibility with non-dairy milk.
Record-high inflation, compounded by the conflict in Ukraine, is impacting the cereal market at an outsized rate. While cereal will present as an economical and efficient choice for most, consumers will be looking for ways to stretch their dollar through trade-offs related to brand, pack-size, purchase frequency and channel shopped.
Future market trends in hot and cold cereal
Cereal is an at-home dominant food, which was of benefit over the last years. Opportunity lies in the away-from-home occasion, including both meals and snacks. Just 14% of US adults purchase snacking-specific cereal products, leaving ample room to develop the segment as well as other strategies for improving the feasibility of on-the-go cereal, such as make-ahead recipes.
Breakfast has inherent ties to health, and cereal has clear ties to breakfast. Consumers are refocusing on their physical and mental wellness in 2022, and cereal brands can play a role in helping them stick to their holistically healthy habits. Definitions of health and wellness are evolving, making room for cereal of all kinds, from traditionally nutritional offerings, such as high-protein or high-fiber cereal, to comforting or mood-boosting varieties, such as heavily sweetened cereal.
Read on to discover more about the Hot and Cold Cereal consumer market, read our US Frozen Breakfast Foods Industry Report 2020, or take a look at our other Cereal and Energy Bars Market research reports.
Quickly understand
- Cereal types purchased.
- Occasions for cereal consumption.
- Attributes associated with various cereal types.
- Concept and flavor innovation to motivate cereal purchases.
- Nutritional cereal credentials.
Covered in this hot and cold cereal market report
Brands include: General Mills, Kellogg, Post, PepsiCo, Mars, Kind, Baker Mills, Kodiak, Nature’s Path, Purely Elizabeth, Bob’s Red Mill, Catalina Snacks, Mush, :ratio, Wonderworks, LÄRABAR, Cascadian Farm, Nature Valley, Kashi, Malt-O-Meal, RX, Quaker, Cream of Wheat, McCann’s, Cream of Rice, Seven Sundays, Simple Truth, Purely Elizabeth, Chex.
Expert analysis from a specialist in the field
This report, written by Sydney Olson, a leading analyst in the Food and Drink sector, delivers in-depth commentary and analysis to highlight hot and cold cereal market research, current trends, and add expert context to the numbers.
2022 growth of the hot and cold cereal category will be predominately driven by higher price points, though performance will be supported by category perceptions of value, convenience and health. Once inflation is rectified, challenges related to progression away from home and foodservice recovery will resume. 2022 presents opportunity for the category to reset, focus on the many underperforming cereal varieties, secure usage habits formed amid the pandemic and establish new occasions.
Sydney Olson
Food and Drink Analyst
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Overview
- What you need to know
- This Report looks at the following areas
- Definition
- Market context
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Executive Summary
- Top takeaways
- Market overview
- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 2: Hot and cold cereal category outlook, 2022-27
- Opportunities and challenges
- Underperforming cereal types can lead the charge in occasion and usage expansion
- Figure 3: Cereal types purchased, 2022
- Rewire associations to find new usage, occasions and audiences
- Figure 4: Cereal associations, by cereal type, correspondence analysis, 2022
- Continue to nurture the cooking and baking occasions
- Figure 5: Cereal recipe occasions, by cereal type consumed, 2022
- Build upon existing hot cereal momentum with concept innovation
- Figure 6: Cereal purchase driving concepts, by cereal type consumed, 2022
- Exciting flavor experiences will drive greater purchase than ingredient highlights
- Figure 7: Motivating cereal trial – Flavor, 2022
- Sugar remains a pain point, use positive nutrition mentality to offset
- Figure 8: Healthy cereal attributes, 2022
- Key consumer insights
- Parents are super cereal fans
- Generation Z supports niche cereal types and innovation
- Nutrition preferences see stark age divide
- Women motivated by functionality, men by fun
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Market Size and Forecast
- Inflation and renewed category interest drive 2022 growth
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2016-26
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Segment Performance
- Enjoyment and ease support cold cereal’s second wind
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2016-26
- Hot cereal checks many 2022 boxes, with ample room to develop varieties beyond oatmeal
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- Figure 12: Changes in consumer price indexes for food, 2019–22
- Enjoyment and ease support cold cereal’s second wind
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Market Factors
- Cereal to stay on the grocery list, but brand competition will heat up
- Cereal can support maintenance of health habits
- Figure 13: Meal/snack frequency, 2022
- Kellogg’s strike and boycott broadens the ethical lens
- Figure 14: Percentage of cereal products launched with select ethical claims, 2021-22
- Birth rate decline and parental concerns call for diversified portfolios
- Figure 15: Annual births, 2010-20
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Market Share/Key Players
- Specialty “other” brands stay on the offensive while legacies struggle to grow
- Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of hot and cold cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Find a balance between specialty and trust
- Figure 17: Perception of specialty cereal launches, 2021-22
- General Mills mergers and acquisitions stem decline in cold cereal
- Figure 18: General Mills’ specialty cereals, 2021-22
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- Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Brands native to other categories are making a mark in hot cereal
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- Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Specialty “other” brands stay on the offensive while legacies struggle to grow
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Competitive Strategies and Market Opportunities
- Let “healthiest meal of the day” take on new meaning
- Figure 21: Changing health priorities, 2022
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- Figure 22: Children’s health and wellness priorities, 2022
- Strengthen the connection between cereal and booming non-dairy milk
- Shortages creates opportunity for grain-free or alternative grains
- Figure 23: Grain-free cereal launches, 2022
- Make cereal an easy solution for any cooking mood
- Figure 24: Attitudes about at-home cooking, 2021
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- Figure 25: Cereal and cooking Instagram post, 2022
- Make the old new again: familiar flavors with a twist
- Figure 26: Portfolio extensions from popular cold cereal brands, 2022
- Let “healthiest meal of the day” take on new meaning
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The Hot and Cold Cereal Consumer – Fast Facts
- Category growth will come through underperforming varieties
- Diverse occasion presence will help cereals’ vulnerability to shifting routines
- Shake up established cereal type associations to find fresh directions
- Hot cereal consumers crave innovation
- Consumers are prioritizing positive nutrition over restriction
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Cereal Products Purchased
- Eight in 10 US households eat cereal; find growth by reframing and refreshing underperforming types
- Figure 27: Cereal types purchased, 2022
- Broadened definitions of health can positively influence cereals across the nutritional spectrum
- Align high-fiber cereal with modern health definitions
- Figure 28: High-fiber cereal consumption, by age, 2022
- Take heavily sweetened cereal from a kids’ treat to an adult indulgence
- Figure 29: Heavily sweetened cereal consumption, by parental status, 2022
- Grits and porridge primed for current landscape, but need to up the fun factor
- Niche cereal segments should target and support Gen Z
- Figure 30: Cereal types purchased, by generation, 2022
- Eight in 10 US households eat cereal; find growth by reframing and refreshing underperforming types
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Cereal Occasions
- Grow cereal through less common occasions
- Figure 31: Cereal occasions, 2022
- Improve cook-ability of cold cereals
- Figure 32: Cereal recipe occasions, by cereal type consumed, 2022
- Keep cereal snacking alive in the next normal
- Parents are champions of cereal versatility – keep them on board
- Figure 33: Cereal occasion, by cereal type consumed, 2022
- Grow cereal through less common occasions
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Attributes Associated with Cereal
- Segments can find growth through strengthening, redirecting or uncovering associations
- Figure 34: Cereal associations, by cereal type, correspondence analysis, 2022
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- Figure 35: Cereal associations, by cereal type, correspondence analysis, 2022
- Heavily and lightly sweetened cereal for dessert
- Figure 36: Associations by cereal type – Select associations, 2022
- Granola should branch out from pairings and toppings
- Figure 37: Associations by cereal type – Select associations, 2022
- Older consumers most likely to view granola as a good snack
- Figure 38: Granola associations – Good as a snack, by generation, 2022
- Oatmeal can extend recipe ownership through packets
- Figure 39: Associations by cereal type – Select associations, 2022
- Parents can accelerate oatmeal packet cooking
- Figure 40: Associations by cereal type – good for recipes, by parents status, 2022
- Find grits growth through category whitespaces
- Figure 41: Grits associations, 2022
- Segments can find growth through strengthening, redirecting or uncovering associations
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Motivating Purchases – Concepts and Flavors
- Leading concepts of interest point to all-encompassing convenience
- Figure 42: Cereal purchase-driving concepts, 2022
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- Figure 43: Cereal purchase-driving concepts, TURF analysis, 2022
- Hot cereal consumers are hungry for concept innovation interest
- Figure 44: Cereal purchase driving concepts, by cereal type consumed, 2022
- Women motivated by functionality, men by fun
- Figure 45: Cereal purchase-driving concepts, by gender, 2022
- New flavor experiences outweigh ingredient highlights
- Figure 46: Motivating cereal trial flavor, 2022
- Flavor launches can have the incremental benefit of winning with young consumers
- Figure 47: Motivating cereal trial – Flavor, by age, 2022
- Ingredient highlights are more impactful to parents
- Figure 48: Motivating cereal trial – Flavor, by parental status, 2022
- Leading concepts of interest point to all-encompassing convenience
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Healthy Attributes
- Approach cereal health with positive nutrition over restriction
- Figure 49: Healthy cereal attributes, 2022
- Older cereal consumers favor traditional health definitions
- Figure 50: Healthy cereal attributes, by age, 2022
- Younger consumers are more willing to rely on add-ons to improve health of cereal
- Figure 51: Healthy cereal attributes – Personal additions, by age, 2022
- Sugar remains a point of contention for all
- Approach cereal health with positive nutrition over restriction
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Further analysis methodology
- Marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 55: Average annual household spending on hot and cold cereal, 2016-21
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- Figure 56: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2019 and 2021
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal , at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal , at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 59: Growth of multi-outlet dollar sales and volume sales of cold cereal , 2016-21
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- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal , at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal , at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 62: Growth of multi-outlet dollar sales and volume sales of hot cereal , 2016-21
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2016-21
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- Figure 64: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2019 and 2021
- Figure 65: US supermarket sales of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2016-21
- Figure 66: US sales of hot and cold cereal through other retail channels, at current prices, 2016-21
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Appendix – Companies and Brands
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- Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of hot and cold cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
- Figure 68: Multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
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- Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2021 and 2022
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